scholarly journals Think globally, act locally: the role of local demographics and vaccination coverage in the dynamic response of measles infection to control

2013 ◽  
Vol 368 (1623) ◽  
pp. 20120141 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Ferrari ◽  
B. T. Grenfell ◽  
P. M. Strebel
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
National Level ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Local Variation ◽  
Comparative Approach ◽  
Age Of Infection ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

The global reduction of the burden of morbidity and mortality owing to measles has been a major triumph of public health. However, the continued persistence of measles infection probably not only reflects local variation in progress towards vaccination target goals, but may also reflect local variation in dynamic processes of transmission, susceptible replenishment through births and stochastic local extinction. Dynamic models predict that vaccination should increase the mean age of infection and increase inter-annual variability in incidence. Through a comparative approach, we assess national-level patterns in the mean age of infection and measles persistence. We find that while the classic predictions do hold in general, the impact of vaccination on the age distribution of cases and stochastic fadeout are mediated by local birth rate. Thus, broad-scale vaccine coverage goals are unlikely to have the same impact on the interruption of measles transmission in all demographic settings. Indeed, these results suggest that the achievement of further measles reduction or elimination goals is likely to require programmatic and vaccine coverage goals that are tailored to local demographic conditions.

scholarly journals Online Reviews and Product Sales: The Role of Review Visibility

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 638-669
Author(s):  
Miriam Alzate ◽  
Marta Arce-Urriza ◽  
Javier Cebollada
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Online Reviews ◽  
Consumer Decision Making ◽  
Product Sales ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

When studying the impact of online reviews on product sales, previous scholars have usually assumed that every review for a product has the same probability of being viewed by consumers. However, decision-making and information processing theories underline that the accessibility of information plays a role in consumer decision-making. We incorporate the notion of review visibility to study the relationship between online reviews and product sales, which is proxied by sales rank information, studying three different cases: (1) when every online review is assumed to have the same probability of being viewed; (2) when we assume that consumers sort online reviews by the most helpful mechanism; and (3) when we assume that consumers sort online reviews by the most recent mechanism. Review non-textual and textual variables are analyzed. The empirical analysis is conducted using a panel of 119 cosmetic products over a period of nine weeks. Using the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) method for dynamic models of panel data, our findings reveal that review variables influence product sales, but the magnitude, and even the direction of the effect, vary amongst visibility cases. Overall, the characteristics of the most helpful reviews have a higher impact on sales.

Social capital and national innovation system: a cross-country analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 453-475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sepehr Ghazinoory ◽  
Ali Bitaab ◽  
Ardeshir Lohrasbi
Keyword(s):  
Social Capital ◽  
National Level ◽  
Innovation System ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Different Dimensions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

Purpose – In the last two decades, researchers have paid much attention to the role of cultural values on economic and social development. In particular, the crucial role of different aspects of culture on the development of innovation has been stressed in the literature. Consequently, it is vital to understand how social capital, as a core cultural value, affects the innovation process and the innovative performance at the national level. However, to date, the impact of different dimensions of social capital and innovation has not been properly portrayed or explained. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of four different dimensions of social capital (institutional and interpersonal, associational life and norms) on two of the main functions of national innovation system (NIS) (entrepreneurship and knowledge creation) based on over 50,000 observations in 34 countries. Design/methodology/approach – In this regard, national-level data from the World Values Survey database was employed to quantify social capital. Entrepreneurship is, in turn, assumed to consist of three sub-indexes and 14 indicators based on the Global Entrepreneurship Index. Knowledge creation is also measured through US Patent Office applications. Also, exploratory factor analysis and structural equation modeling approach were used to build the measurement model and investigate the impact that each factor of social capital had on entrepreneurship and knowledge application, respectively. Measurement and structural models were built and their reliability and validity were tested using various fit indices. Research findings suggest the strong positive effect of institutional trust and networking on entrepreneurship. Also, interpersonal trust and networks were shown to have high influence on knowledge development at the national level. Norms appear to have naïve to medium negative effects on both functions. Findings – Research findings suggest the strong positive effect of institutional trust and networking on entrepreneurship. Also, interpersonal trust and networks were shown to have high influence on knowledge development at the national level. Norms appear to have naïve to medium negative effects on both functions. Originality/value – However, to date, the impact of different dimensions of social capital and innovation has not been properly portrayed or explained.

scholarly journals PRE- and POST-STORM LiDAR SURVEYS FOR ASSESSMENT OF IMPACT ON COASTAL EROSION

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-3/W8 ◽  
pp. 261-266
Author(s):  
A.-L. Montreuil ◽  
M. Chen ◽  
A. Esquerré ◽  
R. Houthuys ◽  
R. Moelans ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Management Practices ◽  
Morphological Changes ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
High Water ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Airborne Lidar ◽  
Coastline Change ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Sustainable management of the coastal resources requires a better understanding of the processes that drive coastline change. The coastline is a highly dynamic sea-terrestrial interface. It is affected by forcing factors such as water levels, waves, winds, and the highest and most severe changes occur during storm surges. Extreme storms are drivers responsible for rapid and sometimes dramatic changes of the coastline. The consequences of the impacts from these events entail a broad range of social, economic and natural resource considerations from threats to humans, infrastructure and habitats. This study investigates the impact of a severe storm on coastline response on a sandy multi-barred beach at the Belgian coast. Airborne LiDAR surveys acquired pre- and post-storm covering an area larger than 1 km<sup>2</sup> were analyzed and reproducible monitoring solutions adapted to assess beach morphological changes were applied. Results indicated that the coast retreated by a maximum of 14.7 m where the embryo dunes in front of the fixed dunes were vanished and the foredune undercut. Storm surge and wave attacks were probably the most energetic there. However, the response of the coastline proxies associated with the mean high water line (MHW) and dunetoe (DuneT) was spatially variable. Based on the extracted beach features, good correlations (r>0.73) were found between coastline, berm and inner intertidal bar morphology, while it was weak with the most seaward bars covered in the surveys. This highlights the role of the upper features on the beach to protect the coastline from storm erosion by reducing wave energy. The findings are of critical importance in improving our knowledge and forecasting of coastline response to storms, and also in its translation into management practices.</p>

scholarly journals THE LUCK IN “TALENT VERSUS LUCK” MODELING

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (03) ◽  
pp. 2050007
Author(s):  
SEAN ELVIDGE
Keyword(s):  
Mean Value ◽  
Maximum Amount ◽  
Random Numbers ◽  
Individual Parameter ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Model Variability ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper further investigates the Talent versus Luck (TvL) model described by [Pluchino et al. Talent versus luck: The role of randomness in success and failure, Adv. Complex Syst. 21 (2018) 1850014] which models the relationship between ‘talent’ and ‘luck’ on the impact of an individuals career. It is shown that the model is very sensitive to both random sampling and the choice of value for the input parameters. Running the model repeatedly with the same set of input parameters gives a range of output values of over 50% of the mean value. The sensitivity of the inputs of the model is analyzed using a variance-based approach based upon generating Sobol sequences of quasi-random numbers. When using the model to look at the talent associated with an individual who has the maximum capital over a model run it has been shown that the choice for the standard deviation of the talent distribution contributes to 67% of the model variability. When investigating the maximum amount of capital returned by the model the probability of a lucky event at any given epoch has the largest impact on the model, almost three times more than any other individual parameter. Consequently, during the analysis of the model results one must keep in mind the impact that only small changes in the input parameters can have on the model output.

The Impact of Globalization on Development of MSMEs

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-60
Author(s):  
Rama Mohana Rao Katta ◽  
Chandra Sekhar Patro
Keyword(s):  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
National Level ◽  
Work Conditions ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Market Opportunities ◽  
Growing Economy ◽  
The Government ◽  
Medium Enterprises ◽  
The Impact

Globalization has been a significant force in the development of the market and economic environments. The micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) need to focus on technological capabilities to face the competition in the globalized market. They have to analyze the market opportunities in the rapidly growing economy as well as emerging markets. The aids of a globalized and digital economy depends to an excessive extent on favourable business environments and healthy competition. The performance of MSMEs depends on accessibility to various strategic resources like abilities, technical know-how, innovativeness, and finance. Thus, it is imperative to consider the factors influencing work conditions firm level, and the strategies formulated at the national level are organized to local business perspectives. This paper examines the global scenario of MSMEs, the impact of globalization, the role of MSMEs in India, the growth perspectives of MSMEs during the pre-and post-globalization period, the critical challenges, and the role of the government in encouraging and developing MSMEs.

Cardiovascular Risk After Sepsis: Understanding the Role of Statin Indications and the Impact of Clinical Inertia on Prescribing Patterns

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 541-547
Author(s):  
Vedant A. Gupta ◽  
Talal S. Alnabelsi ◽  
Sandipan Shringi ◽  
Steve W. Leung ◽  
Vincent L. Sorrell
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Prescribing Patterns ◽  
Clinical Inertia ◽  
Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Prescribing Practices ◽  
Retrospective Cohort Analysis ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Statin Use

Introduction: Patients with sepsis have high rates of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in the literature, but the stratification of those at risk has been limited. Statin indicated groups provides clear criteria for therapy, but the risk of MACE after sepsis based on these groups has never been assessed. Materials and Methods: This was a retrospective cohort analysis conducted on adult patients admitted from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2013, with suspected or confirmed sepsis and data available on statin use. Patients’ past medical history; statin use prior, during, or at time of discharge; and occurrence of MACE were recorded from electronic health records. Result: A total of 321 patients were screened and 265 were found to have data available on statin use. The mean age of the patients was 59 ± 15 years and 47% were female. Overall, 9% were observed to have a MACE at 1 year, with significantly higher rates in those in a statin indicated group (12.2%). On admission, 174 patients were not taking a statin out of whom 52% were in a statin indicated group. Among those in a statin indicated group who survived to hospital discharge, only 10% not on a statin on admission received a statin on discharge, whereas 89% on a statin on admission received a statin on discharge. Conclusion: There is a high risk of MACE after sepsis especially among those in statin indicated groups with significant clinical inertia in prescribing practices.

The Left and the Revolutions

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Priestland
Keyword(s):  
Social History ◽  
Ethnic Politics ◽  
Historical Sociology ◽  
Comparative Approach ◽  
The Caucasus ◽  
Revolutionary Era ◽  
History Of ◽  
New Interpretation ◽  
The Impact

This article provides a new interpretation of Europe’s revolutionary era between 1917 and 1923, exploring the origins of the revolutionary wave and its diverse impact across Europe, focusing on the role of the Left. It seeks to revive the insights of social history and historical sociology, which have been neglected by a recent historiography, that stress the role of contingency, the impact of war, and the influence of militaristic cultures. Yet unlike older social history approaches which emphasised domestic social conflict at the expense of ethnic politics and empire, it argues that the revolutions were the result of a crisis of old geopolitical and ethnic hierarchies, as well as social ones. It develops a comparative approach, presenting a new way of incorporating the experience of eastern Europe and the Caucasus into the history of Europe’s revolutions, and a new analysis of why Russia provided such fertile ground for revolutionary politics.

Diaspora Institutions and Diaspora Governance

2014 ◽  
Vol 48 (1_suppl) ◽  
pp. 180-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Gamlen
Keyword(s):  
Global Governance ◽  
National Level ◽  
Research Priorities ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Political Life ◽  
Comparative Approach ◽  
Regular Feature ◽  
Decentralized System

Why do governments form institutions devoted to emigrants and their descendants in the diaspora? Such institutions have become a regular feature of political life in many parts of the world: Over half all United Nations Member States now have one. Diaspora institutions merit research because they connect new developments in the global governance of migration with new patterns of national and transnational sovereignty and citizenship, and new ways of constructing individual identity in relation to new collectivities. But these institutions are generally overlooked. Migration policy is still understood as immigration policy, and research on diaspora institutions has been fragmented, case-study dominated, and largely descriptive. In this article, I review and extend the relevant theoretical literature and highlight empirical research priorities. I argue that existing studies focus too exclusively on national-level interests and ideas to explain how individual states tap diaspora resources and embrace these groups within the nation-state. However, these approaches cannot explain the global spread of diaspora institutions. This, I argue, requires a comparative approach and greater attention to the role of efforts to create a coherent but decentralized system of global governance in the area of international migration.

Drivers of biases in the extratropical storm tracks in CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Priestley ◽  
Duncan Ackerley ◽  
Jennifer Catto ◽  
Kevin Hodges ◽  
Ruth McDonald ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Ocean Coupling ◽  
Coupled Climate Models ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;Extratropical cyclones are the leading driver of the day-to-day weather variability and wintertime losses for Europe. In the latest generation of coupled climate models, CMIP6, it is hoped that with improved modelling capabilities come improvements in the structure of the storm track and the associated cyclones. Using an objective cyclone identification and tracking algorithm the mean state of the storm tracks in the CMIP6 models is assessed as well as the representation of explosively deepening cyclones. Any developments and improvements since the previous generation of models in CMIP5 are discussed, with focus on the impact of model resolution on storm track representation. Furthermore, large-scale drivers of any biases are investigated, with particular focus on the role of atmosphere-ocean coupling via associated AMIP simulations and also the influence of large-scale dynamical and thermodynamical features.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Introduction of rubella-containing-vaccine to Madagascar: implications for roll-out and local elimination

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (117) ◽  
pp. 20151101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Wesolowski ◽  
Keitly Mensah ◽  
Cara E. Brook ◽  
Miora Andrianjafimasy ◽  
Amy Winter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Local Extinction ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Global Alliance ◽  
Congenital Rubella ◽  
Age Of Infection ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Serological Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Roll Out

Few countries in Africa currently include rubella-containing vaccination (RCV) in their immunization schedule. The Global Alliance for Vaccines Initiative (GAVI) recently opened a funding window that has motivated more widespread roll-out of RCV. As countries plan RCV introductions, an understanding of the existing burden, spatial patterns of vaccine coverage, and the impact of patterns of local extinction and reintroduction for rubella will be critical to developing effective programmes. As one of the first countries proposing RCV introduction in part with GAVI funding, Madagascar provides a powerful and timely case study. We analyse serological data from measles surveillance systems to characterize the epidemiology of rubella in Madagascar. Combining these results with data on measles vaccination delivery, we develop an age-structured model to simulate rubella vaccination scenarios and evaluate the dynamics of rubella and the burden of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) across Madagascar. We additionally evaluate the drivers of spatial heterogeneity in age of infection to identify focal locations where vaccine surveillance should be strengthened and where challenges to successful vaccination introduction are expected. Our analyses indicate that characteristics of rubella in Madagascar are in line with global observations, with an average age of infection near 7 years, and an impact of frequent local extinction with reintroductions causing localized epidemics. Modelling results indicate that introduction of RCV into the routine programme alone may initially decrease rubella incidence but then result in cumulative increases in the burden of CRS in some regions (and transient increases in this burden in many regions). Deployment of RCV with regular supplementary campaigns will mitigate these outcomes. Results suggest that introduction of RCV offers a potential for elimination of rubella in Madagascar, but also emphasize both that targeted vaccination is likely to be a lynchpin of this success, and the public health vigilance that this introduction will require.

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