scholarly journals A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs

2013 ◽  
Vol 368 (1624) ◽  
pp. 20120479 ◽  
Author(s):  
Signe Normand ◽  
Christophe Randin ◽  
Ralf Ohlemüller ◽  
Christian Bay ◽  
Toke T. Høye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Native Species ◽  
First Century ◽  
Small Subset ◽  
Arctic Ecosystems ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Tundra Vegetation ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Trees And Shrubs ◽  
The Last Glacial

Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland's current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates.

scholarly journals Diets of Overwintering Caribou, Rangifer tarandus, Track Decadal Changes in Arctic Tundra Vegetation

2007 ◽  
Vol 121 (4) ◽  
pp. 379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle Joly ◽  
M. Jeanie Cole ◽  
Randi R. Jandt
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Rangifer Tarandus ◽  
Arctic Ecosystems ◽  
Fecal Analysis ◽  
Tundra Vegetation ◽  
Western Arctic ◽  
Winter Diets ◽  
Long Term Studies

We compared winter diets of Western Arctic Herd Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) from 1995/1996 and 2005 using microhistological fecal analysis on samples collected at paired permanent vegetation transects. Changes in the diets of Caribou followed the same trends as vegetative changes documented in long-term studies in northwestern Alaska. Lichens were significantly less prevalent on the landscape and in the winter diets of Caribou between 1995/1996 and 2005, while graminoids (grasses and sedges) were significantly more prevalent. Dramatic changes are forecasted for Arctic ecosystems under global warming scenarios which may continue the trend of declining lichens in northwestern Alaska and in the diet of Western Arctic Herd Caribou. The question of whether or not the altered diet will affect the population dynamics of this herd remains unresolved.

The Effects of Rehabilitation Treatments on Landscape Function Within a Softwood Plantation After Fire: Implications for Catchment Management

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiyu Liu ◽  
Matthew J Colloff ◽  
David Freudenberger
Keyword(s):  
Nutrient Cycling ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Soil Surface ◽  
Water Infiltration ◽  
Native Forest ◽  
Pine Plantation ◽  
Australian Capital Territory ◽  
Surface Stability ◽  
Trees And Shrubs

Abstract There is global interest in enhancing the ecosystem services provided by landscapes and catchments dominated by plantation (monoculture) forestry. Partial reversion of plantations to locally native species (reforestation) is one option. However, the ecological outcomes of this kind of plantation reversion are poorly known. The partial reforestation of a pine plantation (Pinus radiata D. Don 1836) in the Australian Capital Territory with native species following a wildfire provides a rare case study of the environmental consequences of such a reversion. We estimated changes in landscape functionality by measuring indices of water infiltration, nutrient cycling, and soil surface stability across five landscape-scale treatments after the 2003 Lower Cotter Catchment bushfire: (1) natural regeneration of a native forest burned in 2003, (2) burned pine plantation replanted to pines, (3) burned plantation replanted to native trees and shrubs, (4) burned plantation allowed to naturally regenerate, and (5) forest roads rehabilitated by planting native trees and shrubs. At 14 years after the fire, we found that the regenerating native forest had the highest indices of water infiltration, nutrient cycling, and soil surface stability. The burned pine plantation that was replanted to pines in 2005 had indices of functionality that were higher than the burned plantation areas that were either allowed to naturally regenerate to native eucalypt forest or were planted with native forest species. These two types of native forest rehabilitation treatments had only minor differences in functionality. The rehabilitated closed roads were the least functional. We found that a pine plantation at the closed canopy stage can supply regulating services of water infiltration, nutrient cycling, and soil surface stability comparable to a native forest at a similar stage postfire; however, a significant limitation of the plantation was its low ecosystem resilience. It required massive soil disturbance to replant postfire and long-term maintenance of an extensive unpaved road network. The active or passive rehabilitation of native forest is justified to improve the natural resilience to wildfire. However, this rehabilitation of a native forest following use as a pine plantation is a multidecade process in this relatively low-rainfall environment. Study Implications The 2003 Canberra bushfire destroyed the entire pine plantation at Lower Cotter Catchment, a water catchment in Australian Capital Territory, but also provided an opportunity to examine and quantify changes in ecosystem functions with different restoration treatments. Landscape Function Analysis, including three indices (water infiltration, nutrient cycling, and soil surface stability), was used in this study. Findings suggest that both native eucalyptus forests and pine plantations recovered to relatively high levels of functionality within just 15 years after the bushfire, compared with all other restoration treatments, but plantations of Pinus radiata are not resilient to wildfire from a commercial perspective. These results help to justify the controversial decision to restore the majority of the catchment with native species in 2005. However, long-term monitoring is needed to determine how long it will take for the replanted and natural regeneration treatments to approach the functionality of the native forest.

Oithona davisae: naturalization in the Black sea, inter-annual and seasonal dynamics, effect on the structure of the planktonic copepod community

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (6) ◽  
pp. 1008-1015
Author(s):  
A. D. Gubanova ◽  
O. A. Garbazey ◽  
D. A. Altukhov ◽  
V. S. Mukhanov ◽  
E. V. Popova
Keyword(s):  
Black Sea ◽  
Coastal Waters ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Significant Decline ◽  
Acartia Tonsa ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Copepod Community ◽  
Oithona Davisae ◽  
Sevastopol Bay

Long-term (20032014) routine observations of zooplankton in Sevastopol Bay (the Black Sea) have allowed the naturalization of the invasive copepod Oithona davisae to be studied in the Black Sea coastal waters. Inter-annual and seasonal variability of the species and their impact on the native copepod community have been analyzed. The invasion of O. davisae and their undoubted dominance in terms of abundance were shown to alter the community structure but, at the same time, the abundances of the native species did not decrease, excepting the Black Sea earlier invader Acartia tonsa. A significant decline in A. tonsa numbers over the stages of O. davisae establishment and naturalization provided evidence of competition between the species. O. davisae have been demonstrated to gain competitive advantage over A. tonsa, that ensured their fast dispersal in the Black Sea, acclimatization in the new habitat and the successful competition over native species.

The Many Faces of Socioeconomic Change

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Toye
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Adam Smith ◽  
First Century ◽  
Social Progress ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Face ◽  
Scientific Expertise ◽  
The Many ◽  
Century Development

This book provides a survey of different ways in which economic sociocultural and political aspects of human progress have been studied since the time of Adam Smith. Inevitably, over such a long time span, it has been necessary to concentrate on highlighting the most significant contributions, rather than attempting an exhaustive treatment. The aim has been to bring into focus an outline of the main long-term changes in the way that socioeconomic development has been envisaged. The argument presented is that the idea of socioeconomic development emerged with the creation of grand evolutionary sequences of social progress that were the products of Enlightenment and mid-Victorian thinkers. By the middle of the twentieth century, when interest in the accelerating development gave the topic a new impetus, its scope narrowed to a set of economically based strategies. After 1960, however, faith in such strategies began to wane, in the face of indifferent results and general faltering of confidence in economists’ boasts of scientific expertise. In the twenty-first century, development research is being pursued using a research method that generates disconnected results. As a result, it seems unlikely that any grand narrative will be created in the future and that neo-liberalism will be the last of this particular kind of socioeconomic theory.

scholarly journals Climate Mobility and Development Cooperation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Stojanov ◽  
Sarah Rosengaertner ◽  
Alex de Sherbinin ◽  
Raphael Nawrotzki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Development Cooperation ◽  
Climate Variability And Change ◽  
Policy Frameworks ◽  
And Migration ◽  
And Function ◽  
Role And Function

AbstractDevelopment cooperation actors have been addressing climate change as a cross-cutting issue and investing in climate adaptation projects since the early 2000s. More recently, as concern has risen about the potential impacts of climate variability and change on human mobility, development cooperation actors have begun to design projects that intentionally address the drivers of migration, including climate impacts on livelihoods. However, to date, we know little about the development cooperation’s role and function in responding to climate related mobility and migration. As such, the main aim of this paper is to outline the policy frameworks and approaches shaping development cooperation actors’ engagement and to identify areas for further exploration and investment. First, we frame the concept of climate mobility and migration and discuss some applicable policy frameworks that govern the issue from various perspectives; secondly, we review the toolbox of approaches that development cooperation actors bring to climate mobility; and third, we discuss the implications of the current Covid-19 pandemic and identify avenues for the way forward. We conclude that ensuring safe and orderly mobility and the decent reception and long-term inclusion of migrants and displaced persons under conditions of more severe climate hazards, and in the context of rising nationalism and xenophobia, poses significant challenges. Integrated approaches across multiple policy sectors and levels of governance are needed. In addition to resources, development cooperation actors can bring data to help empower the most affected communities and regions and leverage their convening power to foster more coordinated approaches within and across countries.

The geography of climate migration

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-37
Author(s):  
Michał Burzyński ◽  
Frédéric Docquier ◽  
Hendrik Scheewel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
International Migration ◽  
First Century ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Internal Mobility ◽  
Almost All

Abstract In this paper, we investigate the long-term effects of climate change on the mobility of working-age people. We use a world economy model that covers almost all the countries around the world, and distinguishes between rural and urban regions as well as between flooded and unflooded areas. The model is calibrated to match international and internal mobility data by education level for the last 30 years, and is then simulated under climate change variants. We endogenize the size, dyadic, and skill structure of climate migration. When considering moderate climate scenarios, we predict mobility responses in the range of 70–108 million workers over the course of the twenty-first century. Most of these movements are local or inter-regional. South–South international migration responses are smaller, while the South–North migration response is of the “brain drain” type and induces a permanent increase in the number of foreigners in OECD countries in the range of 6–9% only. Changes in the sea level mainly translate into forced local movements. By contrast, inter-regional and international movements are sensitive to temperature-related changes in productivity. Lastly, we show that relaxing international migration restrictions may exacerbate the poverty effect of climate change at origin if policymakers are unable to select/screen individuals in extreme poverty.

Spatial variation of East Asian winter monsoon evolution between northern and southern China since the last glacial maximum

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Qin Li ◽  
Haibin Wu ◽  
Jun Cheng ◽  
Shuya Zhu ◽  
Chunxia Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Winter Monsoon ◽  
Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
Spatial Differences ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is one of the most dynamic components of the global climate system. Although poorly understood, knowledge of long-term spatial differences in EAWM variability during the glacial–interglacial cycles is important for understanding the dynamic processes of the EAWM. We reconstructed the spatiotemporal characteristics of the EAWM since the last glacial maximum (LGM) using a comparison of proxy records and long-term transient simulations. A loess grain-size record from northern China (a sensitive EAWM proxy) and the sea surface temperature gradient of an EAWM index in sediments of the southern South China Sea were compared. The data–model comparison indicates pronounced spatial differences in EAWM evolution, with a weakened EAWM since the LGM in northern China but a strengthened EAWM from the LGM to the early Holocene, followed by a weakening trend, in southern China. The model results suggest that variations in the EAWM in northern China were driven mainly by changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, whereas orbital insolation and ice sheets were important drivers in southern China. We propose that the relative importance of insolation, ice sheets, and atmospheric CO2 for EAWM evolution varied spatially within East Asia.

scholarly journals Long Term Interactions of Native and Invasive Species in a Marine Protected Area Suggest Complex Cascading Effects Challenging Conservation Outcomes

Diversity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 71
Author(s):  
Charalampos Dimitriadis ◽  
Ivoni Fournari-Konstantinidou ◽  
Laurent Sourbès ◽  
Drosos Koutsoubas ◽  
Stelios Katsanevakis
Keyword(s):  
Invasive Species ◽  
Native Species ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Marine Protected Area ◽  
Habitat Degradation ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Rocky Reef ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
High Level

Understanding the interactions among invasive species, native species and marine protected areas (MPAs), and the long-term regime shifts in MPAs is receiving increased attention, since biological invasions can alter the structure and functioning of the protected ecosystems and challenge conservation efforts. Here we found evidence of marked modifications in the rocky reef associated biota in a Mediterranean MPA from 2009 to 2019 through visual census surveys, due to the presence of invasive species altering the structure of the ecosystem and triggering complex cascading effects on the long term. Low levels of the populations of native high-level predators were accompanied by the population increase and high performance of both native and invasive fish herbivores. Subsequently the overgrazing and habitat degradation resulted in cascading effects towards the diminishing of the native and invasive invertebrate grazers and omnivorous benthic species. Our study represents a good showcase of how invasive species can coexist or exclude native biota and at the same time regulate or out-compete other established invaders and native species.

The New Baloch Militancy: Drivers and Dynamics

2021 ◽  
pp. 097492842110272
Author(s):  
Shakoor Ahmad Wani
Keyword(s):  
Resource Sharing ◽  
First Century ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Distinctive Character ◽  
Armed Struggle ◽  
Twenty First Century

Since the early 2000, Balochistan is yet again embroiled in a cobweb of violence after a hiatus of more than two decades. The Baloch nationalist militancy began to reinvigorate after the seizure of power by General Pervez Musharraf in 1999. Musharraf marginalised the moderate Baloch nationalists and repressed dissident voices. The differences over power and resource sharing escalated quickly into a full-blown armed struggle once Musharraf used indiscriminate force to subdue opposition against his regime. This article examines the proximate and long-term structural factors that led to the resurgence of armed militancy at the turn of the twenty-first century. It analyses the new drivers and dynamics of the present conflict that make it more virulent and lend it a distinctive character.

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