scholarly journals What if fertility decline is not permanent? The need for an evolutionarily informed approach to understanding low fertility

2016 ◽  
Vol 371 (1692) ◽  
pp. 20150157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oskar Burger ◽  
John P. DeLong
Keyword(s):  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Transition Theory ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Demographic Traits ◽  
The Future ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Evolutionary Point

‘Demographic transition theory’ assumes that fertility decline is irreversible. This commonly held assumption is based on observations of recent and historical reductions in fertility that accompany modernization and declining mortality. The irreversibility assumption, however, is highly suspect from an evolutionary point of view, because demographic traits are at least partially influenced by genetics and are responsive to social and ecological conditions. Nonetheless, an inevitable shift from high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility is used as a guiding framework for projecting human population sizes into the future. This paper reviews some theoretical and empirical evidence suggesting that the assumption of irreversibility is ill-founded, at least without considerable development in theory that incorporates evolutionary and ecological processes. We offer general propositions for how fertility could increase in the future, including natural selection on high fertility variants, the difficulty of maintaining universal norms and preferences in a large, diverse and economically differentiated population, and the escalating resource demands of modernization.

6. The demographic transition—centrepiece of demography

2018 ◽  
pp. 55-63
Author(s):  
Sarah Harper
Keyword(s):  
High Mortality ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Causal Models ◽  
Transition Theory ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
The South ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time

The demographic transition is regarded as a centrepiece of demography. It is the series of changes that occur as countries evolve from a stable state of high mortality and high fertility to one of low mortality and low fertility, but its timing and drivers are strongly debated. ‘The demographic transition—centrepiece of demography’ explains that demographic transition theory can be divided into three broad components: first, the changes over time in mortality and fertility, based on clear data and therefore generally uncontested; second, and the most controversial, the construction of causal models to explain the timing, pace, and drivers of these changes; and third, the attempt to predict future changes especially for countries of the South.

scholarly journals DIKIRI POL: FALLACIES, FACTS AND THE FUTURE

CORD ◽  
1995 ◽  
Vol 11 (02) ◽  
pp. 34
Author(s):  
R.R.A. Peries
Keyword(s):  
Point Of View ◽  
Review Of The Literature ◽  
The Future ◽  
Evolutionary Point ◽  
Kernel Type

The occurrenee of a dikiri type endospenn the porapol and kamandala forms of the vatiety (Typica), has led to the advancement of the hypoth­esis that dikiri is not a form of coconut with in the Typica vadety, but merely a kernel type, which can occur in any tall form of coconut. The argumentis also made that from an evolutionary point of view, the daid kernel is the manifestation for an undesirable allele, which has been made use of by man for his advantage. A review of the literature examines the mechanism of occurrenee of the dikiri charader and the explanation offered on the aber­rant condition of the dikiri kernel.

scholarly journals Community-level education accelerates the cultural evolution of fertility decline

2014 ◽  
Vol 281 (1779) ◽  
pp. 20132732 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heidi Colleran ◽  
Grazyna Jasienska ◽  
Ilona Nenko ◽  
Andrzej Galbarczyk ◽  
Ruth Mace
Keyword(s):  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Cultural Transmission ◽  
Critical Mass ◽  
Reproductive Behaviour ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Community Level ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Highly Educated ◽  
Average Education

Explaining why fertility declines as populations modernize is a profound theoretical challenge. It remains unclear whether the fundamental drivers are economic or cultural in nature. Cultural evolutionary theory suggests that community-level characteristics, for example average education, can alter how low-fertility preferences are transmitted and adopted. These assumptions have not been empirically tested. Here, we show that community-level education accelerates fertility decline in a way that is neither predicted by individual characteristics, nor by the level of economic modernization in a population. In 22 high-fertility communities in Poland, fertility converged on a smaller family size as average education in the community increased—indeed community-level education had a larger impact on fertility decline than did individual education. This convergence was not driven by educational levels being more homogeneous, but by less educated women having fewer children than expected, and more highly educated social networks, when living among more highly educated neighbours. The average level of education in a community may influence the social partners women interact with, both within and beyond their immediate social environments, altering the reproductive norms they are exposed to. Given a critical mass of highly educated women, less educated neighbours may adopt their reproductive behaviour, accelerating the pace of demographic transition. Individual characteristics alone cannot capture these dynamics and studies relying solely on them may systematically underestimate the importance of cultural transmission in driving fertility declines. Our results are inconsistent with a purely individualistic, rational-actor model of fertility decline and suggest that optimization of reproduction is partly driven by cultural dynamics beyond the individual.

Chelovek.RU/Человек.RU

Chelovek RU ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 18-53
Author(s):  
Sergei Avanesov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Family History ◽  
Great Distance ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Past ◽  
Russian Philosopher ◽  
True Meaning ◽  
The Future ◽  
Pavel Florensky ◽  
The Moment

Abstract. The article analyzes the autobiography of the famous Russian philosopher, theologian and scientist Pavel Florensky, as well as those of his texts that retain traces of memories. According to Florensky, the personal biography is based on family history and continues in children. He addresses his own biography to his children. Memories based on diary entries are designed as a memory diary, that is, as material for future memories. The past becomes actual in autobiography, turns into a kind of present. The past, from the point of view of its realization in the present, gains meaning and significance. The au-thor is active in relation to his own past, transforming it from a collection of disparate facts into a se-quence of events. A person can only see the true meaning of such events from a great distance. Therefore, the philosopher remembers not so much the circumstances of his life as the inner impressions of the en-counter with reality. The most powerful personality-forming experiences are associated with childhood. Even the moment of birth can decisively affect the character of a person and the range of his interests. The foundations of a person's worldview are laid precisely in childhood. Florensky not only writes mem-oirs about himself, but also tries to analyze the problems of time and memory. A person is immersed in time, but he is able to move into the past through memory and into the future through faith. An autobi-ography can never be written to the end because its author lives on. However, reaching the depths of life, he is able to build his path in such a way that at the end of this path he will unite with the fullness of time, with eternity.

ON-FARM FORESTRY DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS FOR NORTHLAND

1986 ◽  
pp. 27-32
Author(s):  
J.S. Clark
Keyword(s):  
Joint Ventures ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Financial Returns ◽  
Farm Forestry ◽  
Hill Country ◽  
Financial Position ◽  
On Farm

Agroforests and woodlots offer Northland hill country farmers investment and diversification opportunities. Agroforests have less effect on the "whole farm" financial position than woodlots, especially where a progressive planting regime is adopted and where no further borrowing is required. Establishment and tending costs for agro-forests are lower, and returns come much sooner. The proven opportunity for continued grazing under trees established in this manner, apart from a short post-planting period, further enhances the agroforesty option. Even where there is reluctance on a farmer's part to plant trees on high fertility land, the expected financial returns from agroforests on low and medium fertility land will increase the overall long-term profitability and flexibility of the whole farming operation. Woodlots may be more appropriate on low fertility areas where weed reversion is likely. Joint ventures may be worth considering where farm finances are a limited factor. Keywords: On-farm forestry development, Northland hill country, agroforestry, woodlots, diversification, joint ventures, progressive planting regimes, grazing availability.

THE GENESIS OF CONSERVATIVE IDEOLOGY, DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND PROSPECTS IN THE POLITICAL REFORM OF MODERN COUNTRIES (ON THE EXAMPLE OF RUSSIA AND FRANCE)

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 38-43
Author(s):  
MARIETA EPREMYAN ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Reform ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Political ◽  
Development Trends ◽  
Conservative Ideology ◽  
The World ◽  
Christian Conservatism ◽  
The Future ◽  
Conservative Policy ◽  
Depth Interviews

The article examines the epistemological roots of conservative ideology, development trends and further prospects in political reform not only in modern Russia, but also in other countries. The author focuses on the “world” and Russian conservatism. In the course of the study, the author illustrates what opportunities and limitations a conservative ideology can have in political reform not only in modern Russia, but also in the world. In conclusion, it is concluded that the prospect of a conservative trend in the world is wide enough. To avoid immigration and to control the development of technology in society, it is necessary to adhere to a conservative policy. Conservatism is a consolidating ideology. It is no coincidence that the author cites as an example the understanding of conservative ideology by the French due to the fact that Russia has its own vision of the ideology of conservatism. If we say that conservatism seeks to preserve something and respects tradition, we must bear in mind that traditions in different societies, which form some kind of moral imperatives, cannot be a single phenomenon due to different historical destinies and differing religious views. Considered from the point of view of religion, Muslim and Christian conservatism will be somewhat confrontational on some issues. The purpose of the work was to consider issues related to the role, evolution and prospects of conservative ideology in the political reform of modern countries. The author focuses on Russia and France. To achieve this goal, the method of in-depth interviews with experts on how they understand conservatism was chosen. Already today, conservatism is quite diverse. It is quite possible that in the future it will transform even more and acquire new reflections.

KING PEPI’S ROLE IN FORMING MEMPHIS, THE FUTURE CAPITAL OF EGYPT

2020 ◽  
pp. 40-56
Author(s):  
R. A. Orekhov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Influence ◽  
Common Point ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
High Priest ◽  
Old Kingdom ◽  
The Future ◽  
State Capital

There is a common point of view in Egyptology that Memphis was a state capital since the earliest times and that its protecting gods were Ptah and his spouse Sekhmet. Arguing this concept, the author tries to find the reason why a pyramid city of Pepi I — Mennefer — became a core of the future capital. The main conclusion is following: Constructing his pyramid complex, Pepi I probably included into it a cult center of Habes where Bastet and Imhotep, a high priest of Ra, were worshiped. Imhotep, a companion of the king Djoser, was known as a priest and charmer who tamed the fiery forces of Sirius associated with Bastet, after which the great drought was over. To commemorate this, New Year celebration and the first sun calendar were established. Imhotep’s tomb became an important cult place, where ceremonies important for surviving of the Egyptian state were conducted. In the second half of the Old Kingdom period the Nile started to flood much less, which led to the decline of agriculture. Thus, the role of the cult center of Habes and Imhotep grew greatly. By including Habes, Pepi protected the dominion of his pyramid city from negative influence of Bastet and decreased flooding. The fact that Mennefer was a successor of the aforementioned cult center determined its capital functions in future.

scholarly journals “Information”—from an Evolutionary Point of View

Information ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 272-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Walter Kofler
Keyword(s):  
Point Of View ◽  
Evolutionary Point

scholarly journals PERIOD AND COHORT DYNAMICS IN FERTILITY NORMS AT THE ONSET OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN KENYA 1978–1998

2007 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 443-454 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. G. WHITE ◽  
C. HALL ◽  
B. WOLFF
Keyword(s):  
Family Size ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Demographic Model ◽  
Ideal Family Size ◽  
Age Cohorts ◽  
Ideal Family ◽  
Rapid Fall

Summary.A characteristic of African pre-transitional fertility regimes is large ideal family size. This has been used to support claims of cultural entrenchment of high fertility. Yet in Kenya fertility rates have fallen. In this paper this fall is explored in relation to trends in fertility norms and attitudes using four sequential cross-sectional surveys spanning the fertility transition in Kenya (1978, 1984, 1989 and 1998). The most rapid fall in the reported ideal family size occurred between 1984 and 1989, whilst the most rapid fall in the total fertility rate occurred 5 to 10 years later, between 1989 and 1998. Thus these data, spanning the fertility transition in Kenya, support the traditional demographic model that demand for fertility limitation drives fertility decline. These data also suggest that the decline in fertility norms over time was partly a period effect, as the reported ideal family size was seen to fall simultaneously in all age cohorts, and partly a cohort effect, as older age cohorts reporting higher ideal family sizes were replaced by younger cohorts reporting lower ideal family sizes. These data also suggest that a new fertility norm of four children may have developed by 1989 and continued until 1998. This is consistent with, and perhaps could have been used to predict, the stall in the Kenyan fertility decline after 1998.

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