Power Analysis Provides Bounds for Genetic Architecture and Insights to Challenges for Rare Variant Association Studies

Genome-wide association studies are now shifting focus from analysis of common to uncommon and rare variants with an anticipation to explain additional heritability of complex traits. As power for association testing for individual rare variants may often be low, various aggregate level association tests have been proposed to detect genetic loci that may contain clusters of susceptibility variants. Typically, power calculations for such tests require specification of large number of parameters, including effect sizes and allele frequencies of individual variants, making them difficult to use in practice. In this report, we approximate power to varying degree of accuracy using a smaller number of key parameters, including the total genetic variance explained by multiple variants within a locus. We perform extensive simulation studies to assess the accuracy of the proposed approximations in realistic settings. Using the simplified power calculation methods, we then develop an analytic framework to obtain bounds on genetic architecture of an underlying trait given results from a genome-wide study and observe important implications for the completely lack of or limited number of findings in many currently reported studies. Finally, we provide insights into the required quality of annotation/functional information for identification of likely causal variants to make meaningful improvement in power of subsequent association tests. A shiny application, Power Analysis for GEnetic AssociatioN Tests (PAGEANT), in R implementing the methods is made publicly available.