Future climate change promotes novel gene-climate associations in balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera L.), a forest tree species

ABSTRACTA central challenge to predicting climate change effects on biodiversity is integrating information on intraspecific variation, specifically population-level local adaptation to climate. Assessing how climate change could disrupt local adaptation to climate can provide a new way of understanding population risk and vulnerability to climate change. For the wide-ranging boreal tree species, balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera L.), we used models of existing population-level genetic differentiation to estimate three key components of population’s vulnerability to climate change: (1) predicted shifts in genetic composition with and without migration, (2) the potential for future novel gene-climate associations, and (3) the distance populations would need to migrate to minimize future maladaptation. When assessed across the range of balsam poplar, these three metrics suggest that vulnerability to climate change is greatest in the eastern portion of balsam poplar’s range, where future maladaptation peaked, migration distances to sites that minimized maladaptation were greatest, and the emergence of novel gene-climate associations were highest. Our results further suggest greater maladaptation to climate when migration distances were limited – consistent with the possibility of migration to lessen maladaptation to future climate. Our work provides a comprehensive evaluation of population’s vulnerability to climate change by simultaneously assessing population maladaptation to future climate and the distances populations would need to migrate to minimize maladaptation, in a way that goes beyond species-level bioclimatic modelling. In doing so, our work helps advance towards the long-held goal of incorporating genomic information in models of species responses to climate change.

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Future climate change vulnerability of endemic island mammals

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-020-18740-x ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Camille Leclerc ◽

Franck Courchamp ◽

Céline Bellard

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Pacific Ocean ◽

Adaptive Capacity ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Vulnerability ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽

Insular Ecosystems

Abstract Despite their high vulnerability, insular ecosystems have been largely ignored in climate change assessments, and when they are investigated, studies tend to focus on exposure to threats instead of vulnerability. The present study examines climate change vulnerability of islands, focusing on endemic mammals and by 2050 (RCPs 6.0 and 8.5), using trait-based and quantitative-vulnerability frameworks that take into account exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Our results suggest that all islands and archipelagos show a certain level of vulnerability to future climate change, that is typically more important in Pacific Ocean ones. Among the drivers of vulnerability to climate change, exposure was rarely the main one and did not explain the pattern of vulnerability. In addition, endemic mammals with long generation lengths and high dietary specializations are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of exploring islands vulnerability to identify the highest climate change impacts and to avoid the extinction of unique biodiversity.

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Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-22-305-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 22 (1) ◽

pp. 305-316 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Qianqian Zhou ◽

Guoyong Leng ◽

Maoyi Huang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Local Adaptation ◽

Climate Change Mitigation ◽

Northern China ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Urban Flood ◽

Drainage Systems ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Change Mitigation

Abstract. As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. This study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.

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Vulnerability to climate change in Igloolik, Nunavut: what we can learn from the past and present

Polar Record ◽

10.1017/s0032247406005122 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 42 (2) ◽

pp. 127-138 ◽

Cited By ~ 83

Author(s):

James D. Ford ◽

Barry Smit ◽

Johanna Wandel ◽

John MacDonald

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Indigenous Communities ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽

Starting Point ◽

The Face ◽

Societal Changes ◽

Inuit Knowledge ◽

Biophysical Changes

Significant and rapid climate change is predicted for Arctic regions. These changes are expected to have implications for indigenous communities. This paper argues that the starting point to understand how future climate change may affect communities is analysis of past and present experience of, and response to, climate variability and change. Using a vulnerability approach, the paper provides an historical account of changing vulnerability to climate-related risks among Inuit in Igloolik, Nunavut. The research demonstrates that Inuit in Igloolik have been highly adaptable in the face of climatic stresses. This adaptability has historically been facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, resource use flexibility and diversity, group mobility, and strong social networks. However, societal changes, and more recently biophysical changes, have increased the susceptibility of people to climatic risks and have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity. The research indicates that the implications of future climate change will be influenced by the interaction between biophysical and societal changes, will vary over time in response to forces internal and external to the community, and will be differentiated among social groups.

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Multi‐model projections of tree species performance in Quebec, Canada under future climate change

Global Change Biology ◽

10.1111/gcb.16014 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Boulanger Yan ◽

Jesus Pascual ◽

Mathieu Bouchard ◽

Loïc D’Orangeville ◽

Catherine Périé ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tree Species ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Species Performance

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Specific leaf area is a potential indicator of tree species sensitive to future climate change in the mixed Subtropical Forests of southern Brazil

Ecological Indicators ◽

10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106477 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 116 ◽

pp. 106477

Author(s):

Monique Bohora Schlickmann ◽

Ana Carolina da Silva ◽

Luciana Magda de Oliveira ◽

Dianyne Oliveira Matteucci ◽

Felipe Domingos Machado ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Leaf Area ◽

Specific Leaf Area ◽

Tree Species ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Southern Brazil ◽

Subtropical Forests ◽

Potential Indicator

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Hanging by a thread? Forests and drought

Science ◽

10.1126/science.aat7631 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 368 (6488) ◽

pp. 261-266 ◽

Cited By ~ 29

Author(s):

Timothy J. Brodribb ◽

Jennifer Powers ◽

Hervé Cochard ◽

Brendan Choat

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Stress ◽

Tree Species ◽

Generation Time ◽

Recent Progress ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Rapid Changes ◽

Terrestrial Biodiversity ◽

Sessile Organisms

Trees are the living foundations on which most terrestrial biodiversity is built. Central to the success of trees are their woody bodies, which connect their elevated photosynthetic canopies with the essential belowground activities of water and nutrient acquisition. The slow construction of these carbon-dense, woody skeletons leads to a slow generation time, leaving trees and forests highly susceptible to rapid changes in climate. Other long-lived, sessile organisms such as corals appear to be poorly equipped to survive rapid changes, which raises questions about the vulnerability of contemporary forests to future climate change. The emerging view that, similar to corals, tree species have rather inflexible damage thresholds, particularly in terms of water stress, is especially concerning. This Review examines recent progress in our understanding of how the future looks for forests growing in a hotter and drier atmosphere.

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Modelling the distribution of key tree species used by lion tamarins in the Brazilian Atlantic forest under a scenario of future climate change

Regional Environmental Change ◽

10.1007/s10113-014-0625-9 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 15 (4) ◽

pp. 683-693 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Nima Raghunathan ◽

Louis François ◽

Marie-Claude Huynen ◽

Leonardo C. Oliveira ◽

Alain Hambuckers

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Atlantic Forest ◽

Tree Species ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Brazilian Atlantic Forest ◽

Lion Tamarins ◽

Key Tree

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IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF A CLOUD FOREST INDICATOR TREE SPECIES

Revista Árvore ◽

10.1590/1806-908820200000032 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 44 ◽

Author(s):

Guilherme Neto dos Santos ◽

Ana Carolina da Silva ◽

Pedro Higuchi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Geographical Distribution ◽

Tree Species ◽

Cloud Forest ◽

High Impact ◽

Future Climate ◽

Conservation Strategies ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Climate Change Scenarios

ABSTRACT The cloud forests are threatened due to the climate change process. Investigations seeking to predict how future climate change will affect species are of great importance as they are fundamental to generating conservation strategies. We aimed to detect how climate change affects the potential geographical distribution of Drimys angustifolia Miers, a tree species that is an indicator of the upper-montane cloud forest in the Brazilian subtropical Atlantic Forest. The areas where D. angustifolia occurs were obtained from geographic coordinates available in scientific publications and the Global Biodiversity Information database. For climate niche modeling, we used the maximum entropy algorithm with 19 climate variables. Two climate change scenarios were considered for 2061-2080: one of low and one of high impact. D. angustifolia predominantly occurs in the upper-montane forests and is absent from dry and warm sites. The variables that best explained the D. angustifolia climatic niche were mean temperature of the warmest quarter, precipitation of driest month, and precipitation of the warmest quarter. Both scenarios indicated changes towards a more tropical regional future climate. Under the low impact climate change scenario, D. angustifolia coverage declined by 68.24% (± 7.32%) across its area of potential occurrence; it declined by 79.15% (± 9.65%) under the high impact scenario. In conclusion, the results of the present study showed that D. angustifolia and its associated ecosystem are threatened by the potential impacts of future climate change. Consequently, we highlight climatically stable areas for the occurrence of D. angustifolia, such as those located in the highest parts of the mountain ranges of the southern and southeastern regions of Brazil, which should be considered as priority areas for protection and conservation.

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