scholarly journals Immediate and Near Future Prediction of COVID-19 Patients in the U.S. Population Aged 65+ With the Prior Medical Conditions of Hypertension, Cardiovascular and Lung Diseases: Methods, Models and Acute Care Estimates

Author(s):  
Arni S.R. Srinivasa Rao ◽  
Douglas D. Miller ◽  
Adam E. Berman ◽  
David C. Hess ◽  
Steven G. Krantz

AbstractImportanceGiven the rapid rise of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. during March 2020 there has been a severe burden on the health care systems and care providers in the country. The impact of the virus so far was higher on the population aged 65+. Hospitalizations were higher among those with underlying medical conditions, namely, hypertension, cardiovascular and lung diseases. Hence, to have an idea of the number of new COVID-19 infections among these high-risk populations that could occur in the short-term could assist promptly to the country’s health care system for immediate health care planning. These estimates may aid us in better understanding the potential volumes of patients requiring inpatient care.ObjectiveTo provide immediate and short-term model-based predictions of COVID-19 patients in the U.S. population aged 65+ during April-June, 2020, those with the prior medical conditions of hypertension, cardiovascular and lung diseases.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsWe developed age-structured dynamic mathematical combined with wavelet analysis to understand the number of new cases that may emerge in the U.S. population aged 65+. We have estimated the number of people aged 65+ who might have three underlying conditions mentioned and a possible number of hospitalizations among them due to COVID-19 if they get infected. We have used publicly available data sources for developing our framework and estimates.ResultsWe estimate that there are 13 million individuals aged 65+ who have one or a combination of three major prior medical conditions in the U.S. who need to be protected against COVID-19 to reduce a large number of hospitalizations and associated deaths. Hospitalizations of patients both with and without ICU-admissions with more prevalent underlying conditions could range between 31,633 (20,310 non-ICU hospitalizations and 11,323 ICU-admissions) to 94,666 (60,779 non-ICU hospitalizations and 33,866 ICU-admissions) cases during the same period. Under a rapid spread of the virus environment, these hospitalizations could be beyond 430,000 within the above three-month period.Conclusions and RelevanceCOVID-19 continues to dramatically and adversely affect the lives of people aged 65+ in the U.S. During the next three months which could result in thousands of hospitalizations if precautions against the virus spread are not implemented and adhered to.

1994 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 201-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard B. Saltman

The issue of patient choice presents a complicated challenge to publicly operated health systems. Increased patient choice can strengthen the citizen's commitment to traditional welfare state objectives, or alternatively, it can severely damage that commitment, depending upon the design of the choice mechanism and the structural context within which patient choice occurs. For patient choice to be linked to true empowerment, choice must reinforce rather than undercut the accountability of health care providers to the population they serve. This article explores the basic issues involved in empowering patients within publicly operated health systems. The author first reviews the conceptual components that could or should be incorporated within the notion of empowered patients, then examines what would be required to actually empower patients within health systems, defined in terms of expanding not only logistical choice but also clinical influence and decision-making participation. The article concludes with a wide-ranging analysis of the impact of potential policies and mechanisms on the long-term objectives of achieving democratically accountable health care systems.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Fawzy Khattab ◽  
Tareq M.A. Kannan ◽  
Ahmed Morsi ◽  
Qussay Al-Sabbagh ◽  
Fadi Hadidi ◽  
...  

Abstract Purpose: The outbreak of COVID-19 erupted in December 2019 in Wuhan-China. In a few weeks it progressed rapidly into a global pandemic which resulted in an overwhelming burden on health care systems, medical resources and staff.Spine surgeons as health care providers are no exception. In this study we try to highlight the impact of the crisis on spine surgeons in terms of knowledge, attitude, practice and socioeconomic BurdenMethods: This was global, multi-centric cross-sectional study on 781 spine surgeons that utilized an internet-based validated questionnaire to evaluate knowledge about COVID-19, availability of personal protective equipment (PEE), future perceptions, effect of this crisis on practice and psychological distress. Univariate and multivariate ordinal logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the predictors for the degree of COVID-19 effect on practice. Results: Overall, 20.2%, 52%, and 27.8% of the participants were affected minimally, intermediately, and hugely by COVID-19, respectively. Older ages (β= 0.33, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.56), orthopedic spine surgeons (β=0.30, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.61) and those who work in the private sector (β=0.05, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.61) were the most affected by COVID-19. Those who work in university hospitals (β=-0.36, 95% CI 0.00 to -0.71) were affected the least. The availability of N95 masks (47%) and disposable eye protectors or face shields (39.4%) was significantly associated with lower psychological stress (p=0.01). Only (6.9%), (3.7%), and (5%) had mild, moderate and severe mental distress, respectively.Conclusion: While it is important to recognize the short-term impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the practice of spine surgery, predicting where we will be standing in 6-12 months remains difficult and unknown. The COVID-19 crisis will probably have an unexpected long-term impact on lives and economies.


2021 ◽  
pp. 152692482110028
Author(s):  
Janice Jene Hudgins ◽  
Allison Jo Boyer ◽  
Kristen Danielle Orr ◽  
Clint Allen Hostetler ◽  
Jeffrey Paul Orlowski ◽  
...  

The COVID-19 pandemic has been well-documented to have a variable impact on individual communities and health care systems. We describe the experience of a single organ procurement organization (OPO), located in an area without a large cluster of cases during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. A review of community health data describing the impact of COVID-19 nationally and in Oklahoma was conducted. Additionally, a retrospective review of available OPO data from March 2019-May 2020 was performed. While the amount of donor referrals received and organs recovered by the OPO remained stable in the initial months of the pandemic, the observed organs transplanted vs. expected organs transplanted (O:E) decreased to the lowest number in the 15-month period and organs transplanted decreased as well. Fewer organs from Oklahoma donors were accepted for transplant despite staff spending more time allocating organs.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 400
Author(s):  
Arnold G. Vulto ◽  
Jackie Vanderpuye-Orgle ◽  
Martin van der Graaff ◽  
Steven R. A. Simoens ◽  
Lorenzo Dagna ◽  
...  

Introduction: Biosimilars have the potential to enhance the sustainability of evolving health care systems. A sustainable biosimilars market requires all stakeholders to balance competition and supply chain security. However, there is significant variation in the policies for pricing, procurement, and use of biosimilars in the European Union. A modified Delphi process was conducted to achieve expert consensus on biosimilar market sustainability in Europe. Methods: The priorities of 11 stakeholders were explored in three stages: a brainstorming stage supported by a systematic literature review (SLR) and key materials identified by the participants; development and review of statements derived during brainstorming; and a facilitated roundtable discussion. Results: Participants argued that a sustainable biosimilar market must deliver tangible and transparent benefits to the health care system, while meeting the needs of all stakeholders. Key drivers of biosimilar market sustainability included: (i) competition is more effective than regulation; (ii) there should be incentives to ensure industry investment in biosimilar development and innovation; (iii) procurement processes must avoid monopolies and minimize market disruption; and (iv) principles for procurement should be defined by all stakeholders. However, findings from the SLR were limited, with significant gaps on the impact of different tender models on supply risks, savings, and sustainability. Conclusions: A sustainable biosimilar market means that all stakeholders benefit from appropriate and reliable access to biological therapies. Failure to care for biosimilar market sustainability may impoverish biosimilar development and offerings, eventually leading to increased cost for health care systems and patients, with fewer resources for innovation.


1999 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 9-14
Author(s):  
C. J. Eales

Health care systems for elderly people should aim to delay the onset of illness, reducing the final period of infirmity and illness to the shortest possible time. The most effective way to achieve this is by health education and preventative medicine to maintain mobility and function. Changes in life style even in late life may result in improved health, effectively decreasing the incidence of chronic diseases associated with advancing age. This paper presents the problems experienced by elderly persons with chronic diseases and disabilities with indications for meaningful therapeutic interventions.


2015 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-88
Author(s):  
Petra Baji ◽  
Márta Péntek ◽  
Imre Boncz ◽  
Valentin Brodszky ◽  
Olga Loblova ◽  
...  

In the past few years, several papers have been published in the international literature on the impact of the economic crisis on health and health care. However, there is limited knowledge on this topic regarding the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. The main aims of this study are to examine the effect of the financial crisis on health care spending in four CEE countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) in comparison with the OECD countries. In this paper we also revised the literature for economic crisis related impact on health and health care system in these countries. OECD data released in 2012 were used to examine the differences in growth rates before and after the financial crisis. We examined the ratio of the average yearly growth rates of health expenditure expressed in USD (PPP) between 2008–2010 and 2000–2008. The classification of the OECD countries regarding “development” and “relative growth” resulted in four clusters. A large diversity of “relative growth” was observed across the countries in austerity conditions, however the changes significantly correlate with the average drop of GDP from 2008 to 2010. To conclude, it is difficult to capture visible evidence regarding the impact of the recession on the health and health care systems in the CEE countries due to the absence of the necessary data. For the same reason, governments in this region might have a limited capability to minimize the possible negative effects of the recession on health and health care systems.


Author(s):  
James G. Anderson

Over three-quarters of a million people are injured or die in hospitals annually from adverse drug events. The majority of medication errors result from poorly designed health care systems rather than from negligence on the part of health care providers. Health care systems, in general, rely on voluntary reporting which seriously underestimates the number of medication errors and adverse drug events (ADEs) by as much as 90%. This chapter reviews the literature on (1) the incidence and costs of medication errors and ADEs; (2) detecting and reporting medication errors and related ADEs; (3) and the use of information technology to reduce the number of medication errors and ADEs in health care settings. Results from an analysis of data on medication errors from a regional data sharing consortium and from computer simulation models designed to analyze the effectiveness of information technology (IT) in preventing medication errors are summarized.


2017 ◽  
Vol 96 (8) ◽  
pp. 881-887 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Baâdoudi ◽  
A. Trescher ◽  
D. Duijster ◽  
N. Maskrey ◽  
F. Gabel ◽  
...  

Increasingly more responsive and accountable health care systems are demanded, which is characterized by transparency and explicit demonstration of competence by health care providers and the systems in which they work. This study aimed to establish measures of oral health for transparent and explicit reporting of routine data to facilitate more patient-centered and prevention-oriented oral health care. To accomplish this, an intermediate objective was to develop a comprehensive list of topics that a range of stakeholders would perceive as valid, important, and relevant for describing oral health and oral health care. A 4-stage approach was used to develop the list of topics: 1) scoping of literature and its appraisal, 2) a meeting of experts, 3) a 2-stage Delphi process (online), and 4) a World Café discussion. The aim was to create consensus through structured conversations via a range of stakeholders (general dental practitioners, patients, insurers, and policy makers) from the Netherlands, Germany, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Hungary, and Denmark. The study was part of the ADVOCATE project, and it resulted in a list of 48 topics grouped into 6 clusters: 1) access to dental care, 2) symptoms and diagnosis, 3) health behaviors, 4) oral treatments, 5) oral prevention, and 6) patient perception. All topics can be measured, as they all have a data source with defined numerators and denominators. This study is the first to establish a comprehensive and multiple-stakeholder consented topic list designed for guiding the implementation of transparent and explicit measurement of routine data of oral health and oral health care. Successful measurement within oral health care systems is essential to facilitate learning from variation in practice and outcomes within and among systems, and it potentiates improvement toward more patient-centered and prevention-oriented oral health care.


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