scholarly journals A Heuristic Model for Spreading of COVID 19 in Singapore

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fook Hou Lee
Keyword(s):  
Scenario Planning ◽  
The State ◽  
Entire Population ◽  
Heuristic Model ◽  
Simple Heuristic ◽  
Specific Community ◽  
Over Time

ABSTRACTThis paper presents a simple heuristic model for COVID 19 spreading. The model is based on a propagation unit of time. The state of the epidemic at the end of the time unit is then related to that at the start through recurrence relationships. By propagating these relationships over the required number of time units, a projection can be made over time. The model is readily implemented on a spreadsheet and is therefore potentially widely accessible. It can serve as a useful tool for scenario planning and forecasting not just for an entire population, but also for a specific community within a population.

Opponent Center-Surround Contrast: Colour to Grey Conversion

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-108
Author(s):  
Ali Alsam
Keyword(s):  
Evolutionary Algorithms ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
The State ◽  
Colour Space ◽  
Vision Science ◽  
State Of Art ◽  
Over Time

Vision is the science that informs us about the biological and evolutionary algorithms that our eyes, opticnerves and brains have chosen over time to see. This article is an attempt to solve the problem of colour to grey conversion, by borrowing ideas from vision science. We introduce an algorithm that measures contrast along the opponent colour directions and use the results to combine a three dimensional colour space into a grey. The results indicate that the proposed algorithm competes with the state of art algorithms.

Environmentalists, Nuclear Waste, and the Politics of Passive Exclusion in Germany

2001 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 43-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Hunold
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
Public Sphere ◽  
Nuclear Waste ◽  
Environmental Movement ◽  
The State ◽  
Radioactive Wastes ◽  
Liberal Democratic ◽  
Democratic State ◽  
Ecological Democracy ◽  
Over Time

In this essay I examine the dispute between the German GreenParty and some of the country’s environmental nongovernmentalorganizations (NGOs) over the March 2001 renewal of rail shipmentsof highly radioactive wastes to Gorleben. My purpose indoing so is to test John Dryzek’s 1996 claim that environmentalistsought to beware of what they wish for concerning inclusion in theliberal democratic state. Inclusion on the wrong terms, arguesDryzek, may prove detrimental to the goals of greening and democratizingpublic policy because such inclusion may compromise thesurvival of a green public sphere that is vital to both. Prospects forecological democracy, understood in terms of strong ecologicalmodernization here, depend on historically conditioned relationshipsbetween the state and the environmental movement that fosterthe emergence and persistence over time of such a public sphere.

Introduction

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Political Authority ◽  
The State ◽  
Dual Nature ◽  
For Profit ◽  
Business Interests ◽  
Local Populations ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Commercial Environment

This chapter introduces the concept of extralegal groups and a theoretical framework for analyzing them—how they emerge, develop, and become entrenched over time. It explores their dual nature as threats to the state and as local statebuilders. Formally, an extralegal group is defined as a set of individuals with a proven capacity for violence who work outside the law for profit and provide basic governance functions to sustain its business interests. This framing shows how political authority can develop as a by-product of the commercial environment, even where the state has little or no presence. In post-conflict societies, the predatory nature and historical abuses of citizens conducted in the name of the state means that government is not always more trusted or better able to look after the interests of local populations than an extralegal group. Ultimately, extralegal groups blur the lines between the formal and informal; the licit and illicit.

Belief Movement, Uncertainty Reduction, and Rational Updating*

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ned Augenblick ◽  
Matthew Rabin
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Uncertainty Reduction ◽  
The State ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
New Information ◽  
The World ◽  
Core Concepts ◽  
Market Beliefs ◽  
Over Time

Abstract When a Bayesian learns new information and changes her beliefs, she must on average become concomitantly more certain about the state of the world. Consequently, it is rare for a Bayesian to frequently shift beliefs substantially while remaining relatively uncertain, or, conversely, become very confident with relatively little belief movement. We formalize this intuition by developing specific measures of movement and uncertainty reduction given a Bayesian’s changing beliefs over time, showing that these measures are equal in expectation and creating consequent statistical tests for Bayesianess. We then show connections between these two core concepts and four common psychological biases, suggesting that the test might be particularly good at detecting these biases. We provide support for this conclusion by simulating the performance of our test and other martingale tests. Finally, we apply our test to data sets of individual, algorithmic, and market beliefs.

On the State of Genre/Form Vocabulary: A Quantitative Analysis of LCGFT Data in WorldCat

2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 52
Author(s):  
Colin Bitter ◽  
Yuji Tosaka
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Detailed Analysis ◽  
The State ◽  
Bibliographic Databases ◽  
Moderate Increase ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Library Of Congress ◽  
Bibliographic Data ◽  
Innovative Solutions ◽  
Over Time

The purpose of this paper is to report on a quantitative analysis of the LCGFT vocabulary within a large set of MARC bibliographic data retrieved from the OCLC WorldCat database. The study aimed to provide a detailed analysis of the outcomes of the LCGFT project, which was launched by the Library of Congress (LC) in 2007. Findings point to a moderate increase in LCGFT use over time; however, the vocabulary has not been applied to the fullest extent possible in WorldCat. Further, adoption has been inconsistent between the various LCGFT disciplines. These and other findings discussed here suggest that retrospective application of the vocabulary using automated means should be investigated by catalogers and other technical services librarians. Indeed, as the data used for the analysis show somewhat uneven application of LCGFT, and with nearly half a billion records in WorldCat, it remains a certainty that much of LCGFT’s full potentials for genre/form access and retrieval will remain untapped until innovative solutions are introduced to further increase overall vocabulary usage in bibliographic databases.

Going Out or Opting Out? Capital, Political Vulnerability, and the State in China’s Outward Investment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meg Rithmire
Keyword(s):  
Political Power ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
The State ◽  
Opting Out ◽  
Political Status ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
Domestic Regulation ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Business Relations

How do state-business relations interact with outward investment in authoritarian regimes? This article focuses on the importance of domestic political status and specifically business’ vulnerability to the state in explaining the dynamics of China’s outward investments. I present three types of domestic capital whose economic and political logics differ as they go abroad: tactical capital pursues political power and prestige, competitive capital pursues commercial goals, and crony capital seeks refuge from the state and asset expatriation. The Chinese regime’s approach to outward investment, which I characterize as mobilization campaigns adjusted over time and combined with targeted domestic regulation, endeavors to treat these different kinds of capital differently, deploying and disciplining tactical capital, enabling competitive capital, and constraining crony capital.

scholarly journals Historical patterns of wildfire ignition sources in California ecosystems

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (12) ◽  
pp. 781 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jon E. Keeley ◽  
Alexandra D. Syphard
Keyword(s):  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Federal Agencies ◽  
The State ◽  
United States Forest Service ◽  
The Past ◽  
Design Fire ◽  
Fire Ignition ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Marked Drop

State and federal agencies have reported fire causes since the early 1900s, explicitly for the purpose of helping land managers design fire-prevention programs. We document fire-ignition patterns in five homogenous climate divisions in California over the past 98 years on state Cal Fire protected lands and 107 years on federal United States Forest Service lands. Throughout the state, fire frequency increased steadily until a peak c. 1980, followed by a marked drop to 2016. There was not a tight link between frequency of ignition sources and area burned by those sources and the relationships have changed over time. Natural lightning-ignited fires were consistently fewer from north to south and from high to low elevation. Throughout most of the state, human-caused fires dominated the record and were positively correlated with population density for the first two-thirds of the record, but this relationship reversed in recent decades. We propose a mechanistic multi-variate model of factors driving fire frequency, where the importance of different factors has changed over time. Although ignition sources have declined markedly in recent decades, one notable exception is powerline ignitions. One important avenue for future fire-hazard reduction will be consideration of solutions to reduce this source of dangerous fires.

scholarly journals Bilingualism in Latvian and Russian in the context of demographic processes in Latvia

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-190
Author(s):  
Vineta Poriņa
Keyword(s):  
Bilingual Education ◽  
Ethnic Minorities ◽  
The State ◽  
Entire Population ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Dominant Language ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Similar Decrease ◽  
State Language ◽  
Common World

This article deals with Latvian becoming the dominant language in Latvia. The results of the study show that the proportion of Latvians increased from 52% in 1989 to 57.7% in 2000 and to 59.3% in 2009. The percentage of the entire population who are speakers of Latvian increased from 61.7% in 1989 to 79% in 2000 and 93% in 2008 (Latvijas 2000. gada tautskaites rezultāti 2002, Valoda 2008). Since regaining independence, many positive changes regarding the de facto functioning of Latvian have taken place in Latvia e.g. the proportion of non-Latvians purporting to possess good knowledge of Latvian increased 10–15% between 2000 and 2008, whilst a similar decrease is registered for those whose knowledge of Latvian is weak. The most dramatic increase in Latvian speakers is in the 15–34 age group, which must be attributed to bilingual education; Latvian is becoming a more frequent tool of communication between Latvians and ethnic minorities. At present, the favourable conditions for the strengthening of the state language are contrary to common world practice.

scholarly journals Indigenous Rights and Multilevel Governance: Learning From the Northwest Territories Water Stewardship Strategy

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Latta
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resources ◽  
Northwest Territories ◽  
Indigenous Peoples ◽  
Water Policy ◽  
Indigenous Rights ◽  
The State ◽  
Multilevel Governance ◽  
Resource Governance ◽  
Effective Collaboration ◽  
Over Time

States’ increasing recognition of Indigenous rights in the realm of natural resources has led to a variety of co-management arrangements and other forms of melded authority, evolving over time into increasingly complex governance relationships. This article takes up such relationships within the analytical frame of multilevel governance, seeking lessons from the experiences of Indigenous involvement in water policy in Canada’s Northwest Territories (NWT). It examines the way that effective collaboration in resource governance can emerge within the space of tension between evolving Indigenous rights regimes and the continued sovereignty of the state. At the same time, the analysis raises questions about whether multilevel governance can contribute to meaningful decolonization of relationships between settler states and Indigenous Peoples.

scholarly journals Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS): A look beyond nearly 30 years of controversy at what it does and doesn't tell us about Scotland

2021 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 423-449
Author(s):  
Graeme Roy ◽  
Mairi Spowage
Keyword(s):  
Government Expenditure ◽  
The State ◽  
Political Debate ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
Over Time

Government Expenditure Revenue Scotland (GERS) remains a controversial statistical publication on Scotland’s public finances. We trace the evolution of GERS over time, and track how it has been used in political debate since it was first published in 1992. Now in its 27th edition, we review its ongoing role in informing constitutional and fiscal debate in Scotland. We dispel some of the myths about the publication, but also highlight legitimate criticisms, and explore how it is used by both sides in the independence debate. Our main contribution is to summarise what GERS tells us – and crucially what it does not tell us – about the state of Scotland’s economy and public finances. We conclude with an assessment of what GERS might tell us about the prospects for any future debate on Scottish independence.

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