scholarly journals Early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary and post-lockdown scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gergely Röst ◽  
Ferenc A. Bartha ◽  
Norbert Bogya ◽  
Péter Boldog ◽  
Attila Dénes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Early Phase ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Seasonal Effects ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Epidemic Wave ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractCOVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a huge reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.

scholarly journals Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios

Viruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 708 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gergely Röst ◽  
Ferenc A. Bartha ◽  
Norbert Bogya ◽  
Péter Boldog ◽  
Attila Dénes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Early Phase ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Seasonal Effects ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Epidemic Wave ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.

scholarly journals The importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. e1009346
Author(s):  
Nicolò Gozzi ◽  
Paolo Bajardi ◽  
Nicola Perra
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
History Of ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Vaccine Distribution ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
Behavioural Dynamics ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

The promise of efficacious vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 is fulfilled and vaccination campaigns have started worldwide. However, the fight against the pandemic is far from over. Here, we propose an age-structured compartmental model to study the interplay of disease transmission, vaccines rollout, and behavioural dynamics. We investigate, via in-silico simulations, individual and societal behavioural changes, possibly induced by the start of the vaccination campaigns, and manifested as a relaxation in the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions. We explore different vaccination rollout speeds, prioritization strategies, vaccine efficacy, as well as multiple behavioural responses. We apply our model to six countries worldwide (Egypt, Peru, Serbia, Ukraine, Canada, and Italy), selected to sample diverse socio-demographic and socio-economic contexts. To isolate the effects of age-structures and contacts patterns from the particular pandemic history of each location, we first study the model considering the same hypothetical initial epidemic scenario in all countries. We then calibrate the model using real epidemiological and mobility data for the different countries. Our findings suggest that early relaxation of safe behaviours can jeopardize the benefits brought by the vaccine in the short term: a fast vaccine distribution and policies aimed at keeping high compliance of individual safe behaviours are key to mitigate disease resurgence.

Multimetric statistical analysis of behavior in mice selected for high and low levels of isolation-induced male aggression

2007 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
O.Yu. Vekovischeva ◽  
E.V. Verbitskaya ◽  
T. Aitta-aho ◽  
K. Sandnabba ◽  
E.R. Korpi
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Male Aggression ◽  
Low Levels

scholarly journals Reducing bias in risk indices for COVID-19

2022 ◽  
Vol 17 (s1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michał Paweł Michalak ◽  
Jack Cordes ◽  
Agnieszka Kulawik ◽  
Sławomir Sitek ◽  
Sławomir Pytel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Risk Indices ◽  
Study Evaluation ◽  
Dynamical Properties ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Regional Disease ◽  
Over Time

Spatiotemporal modelling of infectious diseases such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) involves using a variety of epidemiological metrics such as regional proportion of cases and/or regional positivity rates. Although observing changes of these indices over time is critical to estimate the regional disease burden, the dynamical properties of these measures, as well as crossrelationships, are usually not systematically given or explained. Here we provide a spatiotemporal framework composed of six commonly used and newly constructed epidemiological metrics and conduct a case study evaluation. We introduce a refined risk estimate that is biased neither by variation in population size nor by the spatial heterogeneity of testing. In particular, the proposed methodology would be useful for unbiased identification of time periods with elevated COVID-19 risk without sensitivity to spatial heterogeneity of neither population nor testing coverage.We offer a case study in Poland that shows improvement over the bias of currently used methods. Our results also provide insights regarding regional prioritisation of testing and the consequences of potential synchronisation of epidemics between regions. The approach should apply to other infectious diseases and other geographical areas.

scholarly journals Compliance with NPIs and Possible Deleterious Effects on Mitigation of an Epidemic Outbreak

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Vittoria Barbarossa ◽  
Jan Fuhrmann
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Epidemic Outbreak ◽  
Number Of Individuals ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

The first attempt to control and mitigate an epidemic outbreak caused by a previously unknown virus occurs primarily via non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In case of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which since the early days of 2020 caused the COVID-19 pandemic, NPIs aimed at reducing transmission enabling contacts between individuals. The effectiveness of contact reduction measures directly correlates with the number of individuals adhering to such measures. Here, we illustrate by means of a very simple compartmental model how partial noncompliance with NPIs can prevent these from stopping the spread of an epidemic.

scholarly journals Attack rate and the price of SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarcisio Rocha Filho ◽  
José Mendes ◽  
Carson Chow ◽  
James Phillips ◽  
Antônio Cordeiro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Contact Structure ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Contact Matrix ◽  
The City ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract We introduce a compartmental model with age structure to study the dynamics of the SARS-COV−2 pandemic. The contagion matrix in the model is given by the product of a probability per contact with a contact matrix explicitly taking into account the contact structure among different age groups. The probability of contagion per contact is considered as time dependent to represent non-pharmaceutical interventions, and is fitted from the time series of deaths. The approach is used to study the evolution of the COVID−19 pandemic in the main Brazilian cities and compared to two good quality serological surveys. We also discuss with some detail the case of the city of Manaus which raised special attention due to a previous report of three-quarters attack rate by the end of 2020. We discuss estimates for Manaus and all Brazilian cities with a total population of more than one million. We also estimate the attack rate with respect to the total population, in each Brazilian state by January, 1 st 2021 and May, 23 2021.

VARIATION IN MINERAL CONTENT OF SASKATCHEWAN FEED GRAINS

1977 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 679-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. D. OWEN ◽  
M. J. FARMER ◽  
F. SOSULSKI ◽  
K. K. WU
Keyword(s):  
Soil Type ◽  
Mineral Content ◽  
Clay Soils ◽  
Seasonal Effects ◽  
Soil Types ◽  
Soil Zone ◽  
Coefficients Of Variation ◽  
Oat Cultivars ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Gray Soil

The concentration of Ca, P, Mg, K, Zn, Cu, Mn, Fe and Se were determined in wheat, barley and oat cultivars grown in four soil zones incorporating two soil types during a 5-yr period. Ca and K in Saskatchewan grains were much lower than published values, while Zn and Fe values were much higher. Se contents in each grain averaged 0.25 ppm and were substantially below values reported in the literature. Se and Cu levels were extremely variable (CV = 31–81%), but coefficients of variation (CV) for other minerals ranged from 9 to 35%. The effects of season, soil zone, soil type and cultivar on composition of Ca, P, Mg and K were significant in most grains. Seasonal effects on Zn, Cu, Mn and Fe were quite marked, but soil type had little effect and there were few significant differences between cultivars. Grain samples from Gray soil locations were characteristically high in Zn and low in Mn. Average Se content in grain from the Brown soil zone (0.39–0.55 ppm) was highest. There was a progressive decrease through the Dark Brown and Black soils to very low levels in samples from the Gray soil zone (0.06–0.07 ppm). In each type of grain, clay soils were associated with higher Se levels than loam soils.

The evaluation of potential global morbidity attributable to intestinal nematode infections

Parasitology ◽  
1994 ◽  
Vol 109 (3) ◽  
pp. 373-387 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. S. Chan ◽  
G. F. Medley ◽  
D. Jamison ◽  
D. A. P. Bundy
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Ascaris Lumbricoides ◽  
Worm Burden ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Trichuris Trichiura ◽  
Intensity Of Infection ◽  
Intestinal Nematode ◽  
Prevalence Estimates ◽  
Global Disease Burden

SummaryThis paper presents a method of estimating the potential global morbidity due to human intestinal nematode infections (Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworms), based on the observed prevalence of infection. The method relies on the observed relationships between prevalence and intensity of infection, and between worm burden and potential morbidity. This approach is shown to be sensitive to the precision of the original prevalence estimates and, in particular, to the degree of spatial heterogeneity in levels of infection. The estimates presented here indicate that several tens of millions of children are likely to suffer developmental consequences from infection, and suggest that the global disease burden of geohelminthiasis may be significantly greater than was supposed.

Accounting for marine reserves using spatial stock assessments

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (2) ◽  
pp. 262-280 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carey R. McGilliard ◽  
André E. Punt ◽  
Richard D. Methot ◽  
Ray Hilborn
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Marine Reserves ◽  
Movement Patterns ◽  
Catch Rate ◽  
Fish Stock ◽  
Rate Data ◽  
Stock Assessments ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Movement Parameters

Some fish stock assessments are conducted in regions that contain no-take marine reserves (NTMRs). NTMRs are expected to lead to spatial heterogeneity in fish biomass by allowing a buildup of biomass inside their borders while fishing pressure occurs outside. Stock assessments do not typically account for spatial heterogeneity caused by NTMRs, which may lead to biased estimates of biomass. Simulation modeling is used to analyze the ability of several stock assessment configurations to estimate current biomass after the implementation of a single, large NTMR. Age-structured spatial operating models with three patterns of ontogenetic movement are used to represent the “true” population dynamics. Results show that assessing populations as a single stock with use of fishery catch-rate data and without accounting for the NTMR results in severe underestimation of biomass for two of the movement patterns. Omitting fishery catch-rate data or allowing time-varying dome-shaped selectivity after NTMR implementation leads to improved estimates of current biomass, but severe bias in estimated trends in biomass over time. Performing separate assessments for fished areas and NTMRs leads to improved estimation performance in the absence of movement among assessment areas, but can severely overestimate biomass otherwise. Performing a spatial assessment with estimation of movement parameters among areas was found to be the best way to assess a species, even when movement patterns were unknown. However, future work should explore the performance of spatial assessments when catchability varies among areas.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document