scholarly journals Compliance with NPIs and Possible Deleterious Effects on Mitigation of an Epidemic Outbreak

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Vittoria Barbarossa ◽  
Jan Fuhrmann
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Epidemic Outbreak ◽  
Number Of Individuals ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

The first attempt to control and mitigate an epidemic outbreak caused by a previously unknown virus occurs primarily via non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In case of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which since the early days of 2020 caused the COVID-19 pandemic, NPIs aimed at reducing transmission enabling contacts between individuals. The effectiveness of contact reduction measures directly correlates with the number of individuals adhering to such measures. Here, we illustrate by means of a very simple compartmental model how partial noncompliance with NPIs can prevent these from stopping the spread of an epidemic.

scholarly journals Compliance with NPIs and Possible Deleterious Effects on Mitigation of an Epidemic Outbreak

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Vittoria Barbarossa ◽  
Jan Fuhrmann
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Epidemic Outbreak ◽  
Number Of Individuals ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

The first attempt to control and mitigate an epidemic outbreak caused by a previously unknown virus occurs primarily via non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In case of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which since the early days of 2020 caused the COVID-19 pandemic, NPIs aimed at reducing transmission enabling contacts between individuals. The effectiveness of contact reduction measures directly correlates with the number of individuals adhering to such measures. Here, we illustrate by means of a very simple compartmental model how partial noncompliance with NPIs can prevent these from stopping the spread of an epidemic.

scholarly journals Aromatherapy Versus Pharmaceutical Interventions for Dementia Related Behaviors Translating & Integrating Scholarship Practicum

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Side Effects ◽  
Psychotropic Drugs ◽  
Elderly Population ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Safe Alternative ◽  
Pharmaceutical Management ◽  
Diagnosis Of Dementia ◽  
Number Of Individuals ◽  
Relaxing Effect ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

The elderly population is expected to double in the next thirty years increasing the number of individuals with the diagnosis of dementia. By proxy, dementia related behaviors such as agitation, anxiety and restless will also increase. Currently, pharmaceutical management of these behaviors include Ativan, Haldol and other psychotropic drugs which have side effects that place individuals at risk for falls and at times even aggravate the behaviors. Although, not widely researched, aromatherapy is a safe alternative to treating Dementia related behaviors. Research shows aromatherapy has a calming and relaxing effect which can be measured physiologically.

scholarly journals Attack rate and the price of SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarcisio Rocha Filho ◽  
José Mendes ◽  
Carson Chow ◽  
James Phillips ◽  
Antônio Cordeiro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Contact Structure ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Contact Matrix ◽  
The City ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract We introduce a compartmental model with age structure to study the dynamics of the SARS-COV−2 pandemic. The contagion matrix in the model is given by the product of a probability per contact with a contact matrix explicitly taking into account the contact structure among different age groups. The probability of contagion per contact is considered as time dependent to represent non-pharmaceutical interventions, and is fitted from the time series of deaths. The approach is used to study the evolution of the COVID−19 pandemic in the main Brazilian cities and compared to two good quality serological surveys. We also discuss with some detail the case of the city of Manaus which raised special attention due to a previous report of three-quarters attack rate by the end of 2020. We discuss estimates for Manaus and all Brazilian cities with a total population of more than one million. We also estimate the attack rate with respect to the total population, in each Brazilian state by January, 1 st 2021 and May, 23 2021.

scholarly journals Attack rate and the price of SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarcisio Rocha Filho ◽  
José Mendes ◽  
Carson Chow ◽  
James Phillips ◽  
Antônio Cordeiro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Contact Structure ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Contact Matrix ◽  
The City ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract We introduce a compartmental model with age structure to study the dynamics of the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. The contagion matrix in the model is given by the product of a probability per contact with a contact matrix explicitly taking into account the contact structure among different age groups. The probability of contagion per contact is considered as time dependent to represent non-pharmaceutical interventions, and is fitted from the time series of deaths. The approach is used to study the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the main Brazilian cities and compared to two good quality serological surveys. We also discuss with some detail the case of the city of Manaus which raised special attention due to a previous report of three-quarters attack rate by the end of 2020. We discuss estimates for Manaus and all Brazilian cities with a total population of more than one million. We also estimate the attack rate with respect to the total population, in each Brazilian state by January, 1st 2021 and May, 23 2021.

scholarly journals Projected epidemiological consequences of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant in England, December 2021 to April 2022

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosanna C Barnard ◽  
Nicholas G Davies ◽  
Carl A B Pearson ◽  
Mark Jit ◽  
W John Edmunds
Keyword(s):  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Immune Escape ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Gene Target ◽  
S Gene ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

The Omicron B.1.1.529 SARS-CoV-2 variant was first detected in late November 2021 and has since spread to multiple countries worldwide. We model the potential consequences of the Omicron variant on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and health outcomes in England between December 2021 and April 2022, using a deterministic compartmental model fitted to epidemiological data from March 2020 onwards. Because of uncertainty around the characteristics of Omicron, we explore scenarios varying the extent of Omicron's immune escape and the effectiveness of COVID-19 booster vaccinations against Omicron, assuming the level of Omicron's transmissibility relative to Delta to match the growth in observed S gene target failure data in England. We consider strategies for the re-introduction of control measures in response to projected surges in transmission, as well as scenarios varying the uptake and speed of COVID-19 booster vaccinations and the rate of Omicron's introduction into the population. These results suggest that Omicron has the potential to cause substantial surges in cases, hospital admissions and deaths in populations with high levels of immunity, including England. The reintroduction of additional non-pharmaceutical interventions may be required to prevent hospital admissions exceeding the levels seen in England during the previous peak in winter 2020-2021.

scholarly journals Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios

Viruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 708 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gergely Röst ◽  
Ferenc A. Bartha ◽  
Norbert Bogya ◽  
Péter Boldog ◽  
Attila Dénes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Early Phase ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Seasonal Effects ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Epidemic Wave ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.

scholarly journals Ranking the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to Counter COVID-19 in UK Universities with Vaccinated Population

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zirui Niu ◽  
Giordano Scarciotti
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Optimal Control Problems ◽  
Control Problems ◽  
Minimum Number ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Campus Activities ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Environmental Disinfection

Several universities around the world have resumed in-person teaching after successful vaccination campaigns have covered 70/80% of the population. In this study, we combine a new compartmental model with an optimal control formulation to discover, among different non-pharmaceutical interventions, the best prevention strategy to maximize on-campus activities while keeping spread under control. Composed of two interconnected Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered (SEIQR) structures, the model enables staff-to-staff infections, student-to-staff cross infections, student-to-student infections, and environment-to-individual infections. Then, we model input variables representing the implementation of different non-pharmaceutical interventions and formulate and solve optimal control problems for four desired scenarios: minimum number of cases, minimum intervention, minimum non-quarantine intervention, and minimum quarantine intervention. Our results reveal the particular significance of mask wearing and social distancing in universities with vaccinated population (with proportions according to UK data). The study also reveals that quarantining infected students has a higher importance than quarantining staff. In contrast, other measures such as environmental disinfection seems to be less important.

scholarly journals Early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary and post-lockdown scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gergely Röst ◽  
Ferenc A. Bartha ◽  
Norbert Bogya ◽  
Péter Boldog ◽  
Attila Dénes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Early Phase ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Seasonal Effects ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Epidemic Wave ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractCOVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a huge reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of adherence to Non-pharmaceutical interventions and indirect transmission on the dynamics of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 8905-8932
Author(s):  
Sarafa A. Iyaniwura ◽  
◽  
Musa Rabiu ◽  
Jummy F. David ◽  
Jude D. Kong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Indirect Transmission ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Final Epidemic Size ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Size Relation ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

<abstract><p>Adherence to public health policies such as the non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented against COVID-19 plays a major role in reducing infections and controlling the spread of the diseases. In addition, understanding the transmission dynamics of the disease is also important in order to make and implement efficient public health policies. In this paper, we developed an SEIR-type compartmental model to assess the impact of adherence to COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions and indirect transmission on the dynamics of the disease. Our model considers both direct and indirect transmission routes and stratifies the population into two groups: those that adhere to COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and those that do not adhere to the NPIs. We compute the control reproduction number and the final epidemic size relation for our model and study the effect of different parameters of the model on these quantities. Our results show that there is a significant benefit in adhering to the COVID-19 NPIs.</p></abstract>

scholarly journals Projected spread of COVID-19’s second wave in South Africa under different levels of lockdown

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisha B. Are ◽  
Caroline Colijn
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Rapid Testing ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Lasting Effect ◽  
The One ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

South Africa is currently experiencing a second wave of resurgence in COVID-19 infection. In this modelling study, we use a Bayesian compartmental model to project possible spread of the second wave of COVID-19 in South Africa under various levels of lockdown restrictions. Our model suggests that strict lockdown restrictions will have to be in place up to the end of March 2021 before cases can drop to levels observed, in September to early November 2020, after the first wave. On the one hand, extended lockdown restrictions have negative consequences – albeit effective, they are not sustainable over extended periods. On the other hand, short lockdown restrictions over a few weeks will not have a lasting effect on the spread of the disease. Lockdown restrictions need to be supplemented with increased rapid testing, palliative support for the vulnerable, and implementations of other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as mask mandate. These multifaceted approaches could help keep cases under control until vaccines are widely available.

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