scholarly journals Modeling the Covid-19 Pandemic Response of the US States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgios Neofotistos ◽  
Efthimios Kaxiras
Keyword(s):  
District Of Columbia ◽  
State Level ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
The State ◽  
Multiple Wave ◽  
Us States ◽  
Response Index ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Pandemic Response ◽  
The Waves

AbstractBackgroundThe United States of America (USA) has been the country worst affected, in absolute terms, by the Covid-19 pandemic. The country comprises 50 states under a federal system. The impact of the pandemic has resulted in different responses at the state level, which are driven by differing intervention policies, demographics, connectedness and other factors. Understanding the dynamics of the Covid-19 pandemic at the state level is essential in predicting its future evolution.ObjectiveOur objective is to identify and characterize multiple waves of the pandemic by analyzing the reported infected population curve in each of the 50 US states. Based on the intensity of the waves, characterized by declining, stationary, or increasing strengths, each state’s response can be inferred and quantified.MethodsWe apply a recently proposed multiple-wave model to fit the infected population data for each state in USA, and use the proposed Pandemic Response Index to quantify their response to the Covid-19 pandemic.ResultsWe have analyzed reported infected cases from each one of the 50 USA states and the District of Columbia, based on the multiple-wave model, and present the relevant parameters. Multiple waves have been identified and this model is found to describe the data better. Each of the states can be classified into one of three distinct classes characterized by declining, increasing, or stationary strength of the waves following the initial one. The effectiveness of intervention measures can be inferred by the peak intensities of the waves, and states with similar population characteristics can be directly compared. We estimate how much lower the number of infections might have been, if early and strict intervention measures had been imposed to stop the disease spread at the first wave, as was the case for certain states. Based on our model’s results, we compute the value of the Pandemic Response Index, a recently introduced metric for quantifying in an objective manner the response to the pandemic.ConclusionsOur results reveal a series of epidemic waves, characterizing USA’s pandemic response at the state level, and also infer to what extent the imposition of early intervention measures could have had on the spread and impact of the disease. As of June 11, 2020, only 19 states and the District of Columbia (40% of the total) clearly exhibit declining trends in the numbers of reported infected cases, while 13 states exhibit stationary and 18 states increasing trends in the numbers of reported cases.

scholarly journals Multiple Epidemic Wave Model of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Modeling Study

10.2196/20912 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. e20912 ◽  
Author(s):  
Efthimios Kaxiras ◽  
Georgios Neofotistos
Keyword(s):  
Wave Model ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Multiple Wave ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Response Index ◽  
Infected Population ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Agent Based Simulations ◽  
Pandemic Response

Background Intervention measures have been implemented around the world to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Understanding the dynamics of the disease spread and the effectiveness of the interventions is essential in predicting its future evolution. Objective The aim of this study is to simulate the effect of different social distancing interventions and investigate whether their timing and stringency can lead to multiple waves (subepidemics), which can provide a better fit to the wavy behavior observed in the infected population curve in the majority of countries. Methods We have designed and run agent-based simulations and a multiple wave model to fit the infected population data for many countries. We have also developed a novel Pandemic Response Index to provide a quantitative and objective way of ranking countries according to their COVID-19 response performance. Results We have analyzed data from 18 countries based on the multiple wave (subepidemics) hypothesis and present the relevant parameters. Multiple waves have been identified and were found to describe the data better. The effectiveness of intervention measures can be inferred by the peak intensities of the waves. Countries imposing fast and stringent interventions exhibit multiple waves with declining peak intensities. This result strongly corroborated with agent-based simulations outcomes. We also provided an estimate of how much lower the number of infections could have been if early and strict intervention measures had been taken to stop the spread at the first wave, as actually happened for a handful of countries. A novel index, the Pandemic Response Index, was constructed, and based on the model’s results, an index value was assigned to each country, quantifying in an objective manner the country’s response to the pandemic. Conclusions Our results support the hypothesis that the COVID-19 pandemic can be successfully modeled as a series of epidemic waves (subepidemics) and that it is possible to infer to what extent the imposition of early intervention measures can slow the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals Multiple Epidemic Wave Model of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Modeling Study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Efthimios Kaxiras ◽  
Georgios Neofotistos
Keyword(s):  
Wave Model ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Multiple Wave ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Response Index ◽  
Infected Population ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Agent Based Simulations ◽  
Pandemic Response

BACKGROUND Intervention measures have been implemented around the world to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Understanding the dynamics of the disease spread and the effectiveness of the interventions is essential in predicting its future evolution. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study is to simulate the effect of different social distancing interventions and investigate whether their timing and stringency can lead to multiple waves (subepidemics), which can provide a better fit to the wavy behavior observed in the infected population curve in the majority of countries. METHODS We have designed and run agent-based simulations and a multiple wave model to fit the infected population data for many countries. We have also developed a novel Pandemic Response Index to provide a quantitative and objective way of ranking countries according to their COVID-19 response performance. RESULTS We have analyzed data from 18 countries based on the multiple wave (subepidemics) hypothesis and present the relevant parameters. Multiple waves have been identified and were found to describe the data better. The effectiveness of intervention measures can be inferred by the peak intensities of the waves. Countries imposing fast and stringent interventions exhibit multiple waves with declining peak intensities. This result strongly corroborated with agent-based simulations outcomes. We also provided an estimate of how much lower the number of infections could have been if early and strict intervention measures had been taken to stop the spread at the first wave, as actually happened for a handful of countries. A novel index, the Pandemic Response Index, was constructed, and based on the model’s results, an index value was assigned to each country, quantifying in an objective manner the country’s response to the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS Our results support the hypothesis that the COVID-19 pandemic can be successfully modeled as a series of epidemic waves (subepidemics) and that it is possible to infer to what extent the imposition of early intervention measures can slow the spread of the disease.

Geographic Distribution of Undocumented Immigrants: Estimates of Undocumented Aliens Counted in the 1980 Census by State

1984 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 642-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey S. Passel ◽  
Karen A. Woodrow
Keyword(s):  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
District Of Columbia ◽  
State Level ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
The State ◽  
Census Count ◽  
Immigration And Naturalization Service ◽  
Resident Alien ◽  
National Estimates

This article presents estimates of the number of undocumented aliens counted in the 1980 census for each state and the District of Columbia. The estimates, which indicate that 2.06 million undocumented aliens were counted in the 1980 census, are not based on individual records, but are aggregate estimates derived by a residual technique. The census count of aliens (modified somewhat to account for deficiencies in the data) is compared with estimates of the legally resident alien population based on data collected by the Immigration and Naturalization Service in January 1980. The final estimates represent extensions to the state level of national estimates developed by Warren and Passel (1984). Estimates are developed for each of the states for selected countries of birth and for age, sex, and period of entry categories. The article describes the origins of the undocumented alien population, as well as some of their demographic characteristics. Some of the implications of the numbers and distribution of undocumented aliens are also discussed.

Youth in Foster Care and the Reasonable and Prudent Parenting Standard

2020 ◽  
pp. 107755952095774
Author(s):  
Amanda Stafford McRell ◽  
Christian E. Holmes ◽  
Akanksha Singh ◽  
Sue E. Levkoff ◽  
Benjamin Schooley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Foster Care ◽  
Extracurricular Activities ◽  
Foster Parents ◽  
District Of Columbia ◽  
State Level ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Us States ◽  
Healthy Development ◽  
Telephone Interviews ◽  
Children In Foster Care

Children in foster care face disproportionate rates of biopsychosocial challenges but social and extracurricular activities (SEAs) may support their healthy development. The Reasonable and Prudent Parenting Standard (RPPS), a 2014 federal policy, aims to increase access to these opportunities for children in foster care. Analyses of statutes from 50 US states and the District of Columbia (n = 51) revealed similarities and differences in state-level RPPS policy implementation. Building on these findings, researchers conducted semi-structured retrospective telephone interviews with foster parents across one southeastern state (n = 20) to identify local retrospective perspectives on RPPS implementation. Using thematic inductive coding two unique themes emerged about SEAs prior to RPPS: 1) negative social impacts and 2) complicated activity approval processes. Three unique themes emerged after RPPS: 1) empowerment, 2) implementation disparities and 3) resource recommendations. Policy implications include the need to support foster parents by increasing resources (funding, transportation, access), clarifying liability and clarifying motivation expectations.

scholarly journals The State of States’ Unemployment in the Fourth District

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Murat Tasci ◽  
Caitlin Treanor
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Normal Level ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
State Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Us States ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations

Unemployment rates vary across individual US states at any point in time and respond to business-cycle fluctuations differently. Evaluating what constitutes a "normal" level for the unemployment rate at the state level is not easy, but it is an important issue for policymakers. We introduce a framework that enables us to calculate the normal unemployment rate for each of the four states in the Fourth District and compare that rate to the national normal rate. We conclude that these states and the District as a whole have very little labor market slack left from the Great Recession.

E-cigarette Tobacco Retail Licensing Laws: Variance Across US States as of January 1, 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (9) ◽  
pp. 1380-1385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minal Patel ◽  
Emily M. Donovan ◽  
Siobhan N. Perks ◽  
Darlene Huang ◽  
Lauren Czaplicki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
District Of Columbia ◽  
State Level ◽  
Local State ◽  
Cigarette Use ◽  
Cigarette Tobacco ◽  
Us States ◽  
Term Length ◽  
Licensing Laws

Objectives. To describe how US states and the District of Columbia regulate e-cigarette sales by examining e-cigarette–specific tobacco retail licensing (TRL) laws. Methods. We coded 25 state-level e-cigarette TRL laws (effective as of January 1, 2020) for provisions we labeled as either “core” (e.g., presence of license terms, fees, and penalties) or “descriptive” (e.g., license fee amount and term length). Results. Overall, 23 laws clearly defined a license term, 23 laws required a license fee, and 19 laws identified penalties for violations that included both license suspension and revocation. Fees widely ranged ($5–$1000 annually), and 8 laws did not explicitly direct fees toward TRL administration or enforcement. No law required that retailers comply with all local, state, and federal tobacco or e-cigarette laws. Conclusions. Most laws contained core TRL provisions. Several laws, however, had minimal license fees and did not direct fees toward administration or enforcement. As youth e-cigarette use increases, more states should consider establishing e-cigarette TRL laws or incorporating provisions into existing TRL laws.

scholarly journals County Smoke-Free Laws and Asthma Discharges: Evidence from 17 US States

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Glenn M. Landers ◽  
Patricia Ketsche ◽  
Mark L. Diana ◽  
Claudia Campbell
Keyword(s):  
Significant Relationship ◽  
State Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Adult Asthma ◽  
Us States ◽  
The Us ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Working Age ◽  
The Relationship

Background. Although approximately 82 percent of the US population was covered by some form of law that restricted smoking in public establishments as of 2014, most research examining the relationship between smoke-free laws and health has been focused at the state level.Purpose. To examine the effect of county workplace smoke-free laws over and above the effect of other (restaurant or bar) smoke-free laws on adult asthma.Methods. The study estimated the effect of rates of adult asthma discharges before and after the implementation of county nonhospitality workplace smoke-free laws and county restaurant and bar smoke-free laws. Data were from 2002 to 2009, and all analyses were performed in 2011 through 2013.Results. A statistically significant relationship (−5.43,p<.05) was found between county restaurant or bar smoke-free laws and reductions in working age adult asthma discharges. There was no statistically significant effect of nonhospitality workplace smoke-free laws over and above the effect of county restaurant or bar laws.Conclusions. This study suggests that further gains in preventable asthma-related hospitalizations in the US are more likely to be made by focusing on smoke-free laws in bars or restaurants rather than in nonhospitality workplaces.

scholarly journals Estimation of State-Level Prevalence of Hepatitis C Virus Infection, US States and District of Columbia, 2010

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (11) ◽  
pp. 1573-1581 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eli S. Rosenberg ◽  
Eric W. Hall ◽  
Patrick S. Sullivan ◽  
Travis H. Sanchez ◽  
Kimberly A. Workowski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hepatitis C Virus ◽  
Hepatitis C ◽  
Virus Infection ◽  
District Of Columbia ◽  
State Level ◽  
Hepatitis C Virus Infection ◽  
Us States

scholarly journals The safest time to fly: pandemic response in the era of Fox News

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 775-802
Author(s):  
Maxim Ananyev ◽  
Michael Poyker ◽  
Yuan Tian
Keyword(s):  
Causal Effect ◽  
District Of Columbia ◽  
Harmful Effect ◽  
Us States ◽  
Fox News ◽  
Location Data ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Pandemic Response ◽  
National Emergency ◽  
Zip Code

AbstractWe document a causal effect of the conservative Fox News Channel in the USA on physical distancing during COVID-19 pandemic. We measure county-level mobility covering all US states and District of Columbia produced by GPS pings to 15–17 million smartphones and zip-code-level mobility using Facebook location data. Using the historical position of Fox News Channel in the cable lineup as the source of exogenous variation, we show that increased exposure to Fox News led to a smaller reduction in distance traveled and a smaller increase in the probability of staying home after the national emergency declaration in the USA. Our results show that slanted media can have a harmful effect on containment efforts during a pandemic by affecting people’s behavior.

Medicaid 101: A Primer for Speech-Language Pathologists in Education Settings

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-11
Author(s):  
Janet Deppe ◽  
Marie Ireland
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Speech Language Pathologists ◽  
Inspector General ◽  
Medical Necessity ◽  
School Settings ◽  
Speech Language Pathologist ◽  
School Based ◽  
Emerging Trends

This paper will provide the school-based speech-language pathologist (SLP) with an overview of the federal requirements for Medicaid, including provider qualifications, “under the direction of” rule, medical necessity, and covered services. Billing, documentation, and reimbursement issues at the state level will be examined. A summary of the findings of the Office of Inspector General audits of state Medicaid plans is included as well as what SLPs need to do in order to ensure that services are delivered appropriately. Emerging trends and advocacy tools will complete the primer on Medicaid services in school settings.

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