scholarly journals Possible fates of the dispersion of SARS-COV-2 in the Mexican context

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Santamaria-Holek ◽  
Victor Castano
Keyword(s):  
Time Evolution ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Social Policies ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Conceptual Tool ◽  
Epidemiological Research ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Impact

The determination of the adequate time for house confinement and when social distancing restrictions should end are now two of the main challenges that any country has to face in an effective battle against. The possibility of a new outbreak of the pandemic and how to avoid it is, nowadays, one of the primary objectives of epidemiological research. In this work, we go deep in this subject by presenting an innovative compartmental model, that explicitly introduces the number of active cases, and employing it as a conceptual tool to explore the possible fates of the dispersion of SARS-COV-2 in the Mexican context. We incorporated the impact of starting, inattention, and end of restrictive social policies on the time evolution of the pandemics via time-in-run corrections to the infection rates. The magnitude and impact on the epidemic due to post-social restrictive policies are also studied. The scenarios generated by the model can help authorities to determine an adequate time and population load that may be allowed to reassume normal activities.

scholarly journals Possible fates of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Mexican context

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 200886
Author(s):  
I. Santamaría-Holek ◽  
V. Castaño
Keyword(s):  
Time Evolution ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Social Policies ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Conceptual Tool ◽  
Epidemiological Research ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Impact

The determination of the adequate time for house confinement and when social distancing restrictions should end are now two of the main challenges that any country has to face in an ongoing battle against SARS-CoV-2. The possibility of a new outbreak of the pandemic and how to avoid it is, nowadays, one of the primary objectives of epidemiological research. In this work, we present an innovative compartmental model that explicitly introduces the number of active cases, and employ it as a conceptual tool to explore the possible fates of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Mexican context. We incorporated the impact of starting, inattention and end of restrictive social policies on the pandemic’s time evolution via time-dependent corrections to the infection rates. The magnitude and impact on the epidemic due to post-social restrictive policies are also studied. The scenarios generated by the model could help authorities determine an adequate time and population load that may be allowed to reassume normal activities.

scholarly journals Describing the COVID-19 Outbreak Fitting Modified SIR models to Data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aldo Ianni ◽  
Nicola Rossi
Keyword(s):  
Time Evolution ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
The Social ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Official Sources ◽  
Far Future

AbstractIn this paper we fit simple modifications of the SIR compartmental model to the COVID-19 outbreak data, available from official sources for Italy and other countries. Even if the complexity of the pandemic can not be easily modelled, we show that our model, at present, describes the time evolution of the data in spite of the application of the social distancing and lock-down procedure. Finally, we discuss the reliability of the model predictions, under certain conditions, for estimating the near and far future evolution of the COVID-19 outbreak. The conditions for the applicability of the proposed models are discussed.

scholarly journals A simple model for control of COVID-19 infections on an urban campus

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (36) ◽  
pp. e2105292118
Author(s):  
Robert A. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
College Campus ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Successful Operation ◽  
Effective Contact ◽  
Frequent Testing ◽  
Urban Campus ◽  
The Impact

A customized susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered compartmental model is presented for describing the control of asymptomatic spread of COVID-19 infections on a residential, urban college campus embedded in a large urban community by using public health protocols, founded on surveillance testing, contact tracing, isolation, and quarantine. Analysis in the limit of low infection rates—a necessary condition for successful operation of the campus—yields expressions for controlling the infection and understanding the dynamics of infection spread. The number of expected cases on campus is proportional to the exogenous infection rate in the community and is decreased by more frequent testing and effective contact tracing. Simple expressions are presented for the dynamics of superspreader events and the impact of partial vaccination. The model results compare well with residential data from Boston University’s undergraduate population for fall 2020.

scholarly journals INFEKTA—An agent-based model for transmission of infectious diseases: The COVID-19 case in Bogotá, Colombia

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. e0245787
Author(s):  
Jonatan Gomez ◽  
Jeisson Prieto ◽  
Elizabeth Leon ◽  
Arles Rodríguez
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Computational Models ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Town

The transmission dynamics of the coronavirus—COVID-19—have challenged humankind at almost every level. Currently, research groups around the globe are trying to figure out such transmission dynamics under special conditions such as separation policies enforced by governments. Mathematical and computational models, like the compartmental model or the agent-based model, are being used for this purpose. This paper proposes an agent-based model, called INFEKTA, for simulating the transmission of infectious diseases, not only the COVID-19, under social distancing policies. INFEKTA combines the transmission dynamic of a specific disease, (according to parameters found in the literature) with demographic information (population density, age, and genre of individuals) of geopolitical regions of the real town or city under study. Agents (virtual persons) can move, according to its mobility routines and the enforced social distancing policy, on a complex network of accessible places defined over an Euclidean space representing the town or city. The transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 under different social distancing policies in Bogotá city, the capital of Colombia, is simulated using INFEKTA with one million virtual persons. A sensitivity analysis of the impact of social distancing policies indicates that it is possible to establish a ‘medium’ (i.e., close 40% of the places) social distancing policy to achieve a significant reduction in the disease transmission.

An Evolutionary Clustering Analysis of Social Media Content and Global Infection Rates During the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
pp. 2150038
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Arpaci ◽  
Shadi Alshehabi ◽  
Ibrahim Mahariq ◽  
Ahmet E. Topcu
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Clustering Analysis ◽  
Media Content ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Evolutionary Clustering ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Downward Slope ◽  
Term Type ◽  
At Home

This study investigates the impact of global infection rates on social media posts during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study analysed over 179 million tweets posted between March 22 and April 13, 2020 and the global COVID-19 infection rates using evolutionary clustering analysis. Results showed six clusters constructed for each term type, including three-level [Formula: see text]-grams (unigrams, bigrams and trigrams). The frequent occurrences of unigrams (“COVID-19”, “virus”, “government”, “people”, etc.), bigrams (“COVID 19”, “COVID-19 cases”, “times share”, etc.) and trigrams (“COVID 19 crisis”, “things help stop” and “trying times share”) were identified. The results demonstrated that the unigram trends on Twitter were up to about two times and 54 times more common than the bigram terms and trigram terms, respectively. Unigrams like “home” or “need” also became important as these terms reflected the main concerns of people during this period. Taken together, the present findings confirm that many tweets were used to broadcast people’s prevalent topics of interest during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the results indicate that the number of COVID-19 infections had a significant effect on all clusters, being strong on 86% of clusters and moderate on 16% of clusters. The downward slope in global infection rates reflected the start of the trending of “social distancing” and “stay at home”. These findings suggest that infection rates have had a significant impact on social media posting during the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals 484. The Impact of SARS-CoV-2 on Reproduction Rates of Seasonal Influenza and RSV

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S308-S308
Author(s):  
Amy C Sherman ◽  
Ahmed Babiker ◽  
Andrew Sieben ◽  
Alexander Pyden ◽  
James P Steinberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare System ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Respiratory Virus ◽  
Panel Member ◽  
Influenza B ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Clinical Records ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has precipitated a global health crisis. In an effort to decrease person-to-person transmission, societal-level non-pharmacologic interventions (NPIs) to maintain social distancing have been enacted. As SARS-CoV-2 shares similar routes of transmission with other respiratory viruses, implementation of these NPIs may have decreased transmission for multiple viral pathogens. We compared influenza and respiratory syncytial (RSV) rates in prior seasons to rates during the 2019 - 2020 season at two large academic centers in Atlanta and Boston. Methods The clinical records were queried for adults with respiratory virus testing conducted at the Emory Healthcare system and associated clinics in Atlanta and the Mass General Brigham (MGB) Healthcare System in Boston. Total cases for influenza A and B, RSV and SARS-CoV-2 were analyzed for each week of the past 5 seasons (07/01/2015-05/30/2020) for the Atlanta and Boston sites. Systematic changes in viral infection rates were calculated using viral reproduction rates, R(t), between consecutive weeks. R(t) is the ratio of the number of positive cases in one week to the number of positive cases in the previous week. We used statistical bootstrapping to determine whether R(t) for influenza and RSV were lower in 2019–2020 following the introduction of SARS-CoV-2. Analyses were conducted using R (v 4.0.0). Absolute respiratory virus activity by season, Boston (panel A) v. Atlanta (panel B) Results For the 2019–2020 Atlanta season, R(t) < 1 (which reflects steady decline in infection rates) occurred at week 28 for influenza A, week 33 for influenza B, and week 35 for RSV, which corresponded with the increase of SARS-Cov-2 cases. The R(t) of these viruses stayed at or near 1 during weeks 33–35 in prior seasons, and R(t) was greater than 1 up to week 47. Data from MGB sites showed similar trends with a sudden decline in R(t) to < 1 at the start of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Conclusion We note decreased transmission of influenza and RSV during a time window where widespread movement restrictions and social distancing were imposed to control COVID-19. This trend was most pronounced for influenza A in Atlanta and influenza B in Boston. These data suggest that NPIs can have important effects across multiple pathogens. Disclosures Kraft Colleen, MD, MSc, Rebiotix (Advisor or Review Panel member)

Intergroup Threat and Outgroup Attitudes

2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 311-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Brambilla ◽  
David A. Butz
Keyword(s):  
Gay Men ◽  
Social Group ◽  
Welfare Recipients ◽  
Intergroup Attitudes ◽  
Social Policies ◽  
Intergroup Threat ◽  
Economic Threat ◽  
The Impact ◽  
General Climate

Two studies examined the impact of macrolevel symbolic threat on intergroup attitudes. In Study 1 (N = 71), participants exposed to a macrosymbolic threat (vs. nonsymbolic threat and neutral topic) reported less support toward social policies concerning gay men, an outgroup whose stereotypes implies a threat to values, but not toward welfare recipients, a social group whose stereotypes do not imply a threat to values. Study 2 (N = 78) showed that, whereas macrolevel symbolic threat led to less favorable attitudes toward gay men, macroeconomic threat led to less favorable attitudes toward Asians, an outgroup whose stereotypes imply an economic threat. These findings are discussed in terms of their implications for understanding the role of a general climate of threat in shaping intergroup attitudes.

Assessment of sensitivity of the efficiency of regional tax spending towards investment attractiveness of the types of economic activity carried out by the residents of advanced development territory

2020 ◽  
pp. 98-110
Author(s):  
Evgeniya Mikhailovna Popova ◽  
Guzel Mukhtarovna Guseinova ◽  
Sergei Borisovich Milov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Investment Process ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Advanced Development

The deficit of subnational budgets and deceleration capital investments in multiple Russian regions increase the relevance of research aimed at improvement of tax incentivizing practice of the regional investment process. The studies focused on determination of the impact of socioeconomic and institutional factors upon the efficiency of investment tax expenses obtained wide circulation within the foreign scientific literature. The subject of this article is the assessment of sensitivity of the efficiency of regional tax expanses towards investment attractiveness of the types of economic activity carried out by the residents of territories of advanced socioeconomic development, created in the subjects of Far Easter Federal District. The scientific novelty and practical values of this research consists in substantiation of the reasonableness of assessment of investment attractiveness of the types of economic activity that are stimulated by tax incentives. Methodology for assessing investment attractiveness is proposed and tested. The conclusion is made that in case of low investment attractiveness of the type of economic activity, which was planned to support by tax incentives, it is required to conduct and additional analysis to avoid unjustified tax expanses.

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