scholarly journals Describing the COVID-19 Outbreak Fitting Modified SIR models to Data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aldo Ianni ◽  
Nicola Rossi
Keyword(s):  
Time Evolution ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
The Social ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
Official Sources ◽  
Far Future

AbstractIn this paper we fit simple modifications of the SIR compartmental model to the COVID-19 outbreak data, available from official sources for Italy and other countries. Even if the complexity of the pandemic can not be easily modelled, we show that our model, at present, describes the time evolution of the data in spite of the application of the social distancing and lock-down procedure. Finally, we discuss the reliability of the model predictions, under certain conditions, for estimating the near and far future evolution of the COVID-19 outbreak. The conditions for the applicability of the proposed models are discussed.

scholarly journals Possible fates of the dispersion of SARS-COV-2 in the Mexican context

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Santamaria-Holek ◽  
Victor Castano
Keyword(s):  
Time Evolution ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Social Policies ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Conceptual Tool ◽  
Epidemiological Research ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Impact

The determination of the adequate time for house confinement and when social distancing restrictions should end are now two of the main challenges that any country has to face in an effective battle against. The possibility of a new outbreak of the pandemic and how to avoid it is, nowadays, one of the primary objectives of epidemiological research. In this work, we go deep in this subject by presenting an innovative compartmental model, that explicitly introduces the number of active cases, and employing it as a conceptual tool to explore the possible fates of the dispersion of SARS-COV-2 in the Mexican context. We incorporated the impact of starting, inattention, and end of restrictive social policies on the time evolution of the pandemics via time-in-run corrections to the infection rates. The magnitude and impact on the epidemic due to post-social restrictive policies are also studied. The scenarios generated by the model can help authorities to determine an adequate time and population load that may be allowed to reassume normal activities.

scholarly journals Mitigation of COVID-19 using social distancing of the elderly in Brazil: The vertical quarantine effects in hospitalizations and deaths

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vito Ribeiro Venturieri ◽  
Matheus Silva Gonçalves ◽  
Vinícius Rios Fuck
Keyword(s):  
Elderly Population ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
System Collapse ◽  
The Social ◽  
Hospital Beds ◽  
Intervention Scenario ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

SummaryGovernments and epidemiologists have been proposing several mitigation strategies based on non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. In this work, we quantitatively compare the effects of elderly population (60 years old or more) selective isolation with a no isolation scenario using an adapted Susceptible - Exposed - Infectious - Removed (SEIR) compartmental model. For these simulated scenarios, we estimate the number of hospitalizations and deaths for different Brazilian cities, including those due to the lack of hospital beds. Our simulations show that, for São Paulo City, the isolation of the elderly would reduce demand for hospital beds by 9% and deaths by 16% compared to the no intervention scenario. Other Brazilian cities follow the same pattern, with median reductions of deaths ranging from 12-18%. We conclude that the social distancing of the elderly would be marginally effective and would not avoid health system collapse in several Brazilian cities.

scholarly journals Possible fates of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Mexican context

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 200886
Author(s):  
I. Santamaría-Holek ◽  
V. Castaño
Keyword(s):  
Time Evolution ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Social Policies ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Conceptual Tool ◽  
Epidemiological Research ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Impact

The determination of the adequate time for house confinement and when social distancing restrictions should end are now two of the main challenges that any country has to face in an ongoing battle against SARS-CoV-2. The possibility of a new outbreak of the pandemic and how to avoid it is, nowadays, one of the primary objectives of epidemiological research. In this work, we present an innovative compartmental model that explicitly introduces the number of active cases, and employ it as a conceptual tool to explore the possible fates of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Mexican context. We incorporated the impact of starting, inattention and end of restrictive social policies on the pandemic’s time evolution via time-dependent corrections to the infection rates. The magnitude and impact on the epidemic due to post-social restrictive policies are also studied. The scenarios generated by the model could help authorities determine an adequate time and population load that may be allowed to reassume normal activities.

scholarly journals Tourist Route Optimization in the Context of Covid-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 5492
Author(s):  
Cristina Maria Păcurar ◽  
Ruxandra-Gabriela Albu ◽  
Victor Dan Păcurar
Keyword(s):  
Travelling Salesman Problem ◽  
Route Planning ◽  
Route Optimization ◽  
Travelling Salesman ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Innovative Method ◽  
The Social ◽  
Immediate Response

The paper presents an innovative method for tourist route planning inside a destination. The necessity of reorganizing the tourist routes within a destination comes as an immediate response to the Covid-19 crisis. The implementation of the method inside tourist destinations can bring an important advantage in transforming a destination into a safer one in times of Covid-19 and post-Covid-19. The existing trend of shortening the tourist stay length has been accelerated while the epidemic became a pandemic. Moreover, the wariness for future pandemics has brought into spotlight the issue of overcrowded attractions inside a destination at certain moments. The method presented in this paper proposes a backtracking algorithm, more precisely an adaptation of the travelling salesman problem. The method presented is aimed to facilitate the navigation inside a destination and to revive certain less-visited sightseeing spots inside a destination while facilitating conformation with the social distancing measures imposed for Covid-19 control.

scholarly journals Mathematical model of COVID-19 intervention scenarios for São Paulo—Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Osmar Pinto Neto ◽  
Deanna M. Kennedy ◽  
José Clark Reis ◽  
Yiyu Wang ◽  
Ana Carolina Brisola Brizzi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Algorithm Design ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Protective Behavior ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Multi Objective Genetic Algorithm

AbstractWith COVID-19 surging across the world, understanding the effectiveness of intervention strategies on transmission dynamics is of primary global health importance. Here, we develop and analyze an epidemiological compartmental model using multi-objective genetic algorithm design optimization to compare scenarios related to strategy type, the extent of social distancing, time window, and personal protection levels on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil. The results indicate that the optimal strategy for São Paulo is to reduce social distancing over time with a stepping-down reduction in the magnitude of social distancing every 80-days. Our results also indicate that the ability to reduce social distancing depends on a 5–10% increase in the current percentage of people strictly following protective guidelines, highlighting the importance of protective behavior in controlling the pandemic. Our framework can be extended to model transmission dynamics for other countries, regions, states, cities, and organizations.

scholarly journals Perception and Preference for Home-Based Telework in the COVID-19 Era: A Gender-Based Analysis in Hanoi, Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3179
Author(s):  
Minh Hieu Nguyen ◽  
Jimmy Armoogum
Keyword(s):  
Gender Inequality ◽  
Sustainable Development Goal ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Work Related ◽  
Home Based ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government ◽  
Gender Based ◽  
Using Data

The rapid and widespread of COVID-19 has caused severe multifaceted effects on society but differently in women and men, thereby preventing the achievement of gender equality (the 5th sustainable development goal of the United Nations). This study, using data of 355 teleworkers collected in Hanoi (Vietnam) during the first social distancing period, aims at exploring how (dis)similar factors associated with the perception and the preference for more home-based telework (HBT) for male teleworkers versus female peers are. The findings show that 56% of female teleworkers compared to 45% of male counterparts had a positive perception of HBT within the social distancing period and 63% of women desired to telework more in comparison with 39% of men post-COVID-19. Work-related factors were associated with the male perception while family-related factors influenced the female perception. There is a difference in the effects of the same variables (age and children in the household) on the perception and the preference for HBT for females. For women, HBT would be considered a solution post-COVID-19 to solve the burden existing pre-COVID-19 and increasing in COVID-19. Considering gender inequality is necessary for the government and authorities to lessen the adverse effects of COVID-19 on the lives of citizens, especially female ones, in developing countries.

Social Distancing Using AI and Deep Learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (VII) ◽  
pp. 1816-1822
Author(s):  
Mr. Kiran Mudaraddi
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Object Detection ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Suggested Method ◽  
Video Frame ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Impact

The paper presents a deep learning-based methodology for detecting social distancing in order to assess the distance between people in order to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. The input was a video frame from the camera, and the open-source object detection was pre-trained. The outcome demonstrates that the suggested method is capable of determining the social distancing measures between many participants in a video.

The Effects of Different Kernels in SVM Sentiment Analysis on Mass Social Distancing

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 161
Author(s):  
Komang Dhiyo Yonatha Wijaya ◽  
Anak Agung Istri Ngurah Eka Karyawati
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Sentiment Analysis ◽  
Kernel Method ◽  
Idle Time ◽  
Linear Kernel ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Social ◽  
Negative Sentiment ◽  
F Measure ◽  
Kernel Yield

During this pandemic, social media has become a major need as a means of communication. One of the social medias used is Twitter by using messages referred to as tweets. Indonesia currently undergoing mass social distancing. During this time most people use social media in order to spend their idle time However, sometimes, this result in negative sentiment that used to insult and aimed at an individual or group. To filter that kind of tweets, a sentiment analysis was performed with SVM and 3 different kernel method. Tweets are labelled into 3 classes of positive, neutral, and negative. The experiments are conducted to determine which kernel is better. From the sentiment analysis that has been performed, SVM linear kernel yield the best score Some experiments show that the precision of linear kernel is 57%, recall is 50%, and f-measure is 44%

Disparity and Dynamics of Social Distancing Behaviors in Japan: An Investigation of mobile phone mobility data (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeyu Lyu ◽  
Hiroki Takikawa
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government ◽  
Over Time

BACKGROUND The availability of large-scale and fine-grained aggregated mobility data has allowed researchers to observe the dynamic of social distancing behaviors at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Despite the increasing attentions paid to this research agenda, limited studies have focused on the demographic factors related to mobility and the dynamics of social distancing behaviors has not been fully investigated. OBJECTIVE This study aims to assist in the design and implementation of public health policies by exploring the social distancing behaviors among various demographic groups over time. METHODS We combined several data sources, including mobile tracking data and geographical statistics, to estimate visiting population of entertainment venues across demographic groups, which can be considered as the proxy of social distancing behaviors. Then, we employed time series analyze methods to investigate how voluntary and policy-induced social distancing behaviors shift over time across demographic groups. RESULTS Our findings demonstrate distinct patterns of social distancing behaviors and their dynamics across age groups. The population in the entertainment venues comprised mainly of individuals aged 20–40 years, while according to the dynamics of the mobility index and the policy-induced behavior, among the age groups, the extent of reduction of the frequency of visiting entertainment venues during the pandemic was generally the highest among younger individuals. Also, our results indicate the importance of implementing the social distancing policy promptly to limit the spread of the COVID-19 infection. However, it should be noticed that although the policy intervention during the second wave in Japan appeared to increase the awareness of the severity of the pandemic and concerns regarding COVID-19, its direct impact has been largely decreased could only last for a short time. CONCLUSIONS At the time we wrote this paper, in Japan, the number of daily confirmed cases was continuously increasing. Thus, this study provides a timely reference for decision makers about the current situation of policy-induced compliance behaviors. On the one hand, age-dependent disparity requires target mitigation strategies to increase the intention of elderly individuals to adopt mobility restriction behaviors. On the other hand, considering the decreasing impact of self-restriction recommendations, the government should employ policy interventions that limit the resurgence of cases, especially by imposing stronger, stricter social distancing interventions, as they are necessary to promote social distancing behaviors and mitigate the transmission of COVID-19. CLINICALTRIAL None

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