scholarly journals Should international borders re-open? The impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 importation risk

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Liebig ◽  
Kamran Najeebullah ◽  
Raja Jurdak ◽  
Ahmad El Shoghri ◽  
Dean Paini
Keyword(s):  
Incidence Rates ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
International Borders ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Comprehensive Framework ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Importation Risk

ABSTRACTNovel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread across the world at an unprecedented pace, reaching over 200 countries and territories in less than three months. In response, many governments denied entry to travellers arriving from various countries affected by the virus. While several industries continue to experience economic losses due to the imposed interventions, it is unclear whether the different travel restrictions were successful in reducing COVID-19 importations. Here we develop a comprehensive framework to model daily COVID-19 importations, considering different travel bans. We quantify the temporal effects of the restrictions and elucidate the relationship between incidence rates in other countries, travel flows and the expected number of importations into the country under investigation. As a cases study, we evaluate the travel bans enforced by the Australian government. We find that international travel bans in Australia lowered COVID-19 importations by 87.68% (83.39 - 91.35) between January and June 2020. The presented framework can further be used to gain insights into how many importations to expect should borders re-open. Authorities may consider the presented information when planning a phased re-opening of international borders.

scholarly journals Should international borders re-open? The impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 importation risk

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Liebig ◽  
Kamran Najeebullah ◽  
Raja Jurdak ◽  
Ahmad El Shoghri ◽  
Dean Paini
Keyword(s):  
Incidence Rates ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Expected Number ◽  
International Borders ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Importation Risk

Abstract Background Novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread across the world at an unprecedented pace, reaching over 200 countries and territories in less than three months. In response, many governments denied entry to travellers arriving from various countries affected by the virus. While several industries continue to experience economic losses due to the imposed interventions, it is unclear whether the different travel restrictions were successful in reducing COVID-19 importations. Methods Here we develop a comprehensive probabilistic framework to model daily COVID-19 importations, considering different travel bans. We quantify the temporal effects of the restrictions and elucidate the relationship between incidence rates in other countries, travel flows and the expected number of importations into the country under investigation. Results As a cases study, we evaluate the travel bans enforced by the Australian government. We find that international travel bans in Australia lowered COVID-19 importations by 87.68% (83.39 - 91.35) between January and June 2020. The presented framework can further be used to gain insights into how many importations to expect should borders re-open. Conclusions While travel bans lowered the number of COVID-19 importations overall, the effectiveness of bans on individual countries varies widely and directly depends on the change in behaviour in returning residents and citizens. Authorities may consider the presented information when planning a phased re-opening of international borders.

scholarly journals The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Chinazzi ◽  
Jessica T. Davis ◽  
Marco Ajelli ◽  
Corrado Gioannini ◽  
Maria Litvinova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Disease Transmission Model ◽  
The Impact

AbstractMotivated by the rapid spread of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of both domestic and international travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated on the evidence of internationally imported cases before the implementation of the travel quarantine of Wuhan. By assuming a generation time of 7.5 days, the reproduction number is estimated to be 2.4 [90% CI 2.2-2.6]. The median estimate for number of cases before the travel ban implementation on January 23, 2020 is 58,956 [90% CI 40,759 - 87,471] in Wuhan and 3,491 [90% CI 1,924 - 7,360] in other locations in Mainland China. The model shows that as of January 23, most Chinese cities had already received a considerable number of infected cases, and the travel quarantine delays the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days. The travel quarantine has a more marked effect at the international scale, where we estimate the number of case importations to be reduced by 80% until the end of February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.

scholarly journals UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex, October 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 1-36 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
International Travel ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
The European Union ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Slow Virus ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Main Barrier ◽  
The Impact

International travel plunges 70% in the first eight months of 2020 International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) declined 70% in the first eight months of 2020 over the same period of last year, amid global travel restrictions including many borders fully closed, to contain the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. International arrivals plunged 81% in July and 79% in August, traditionally the two busiest months of the year and the peak of the Northern Hemisphere summer season. Despite such large declines, this represents a relative improvement over the 90% or greater decreases of the previous months, as some destinations started to reopen to international tourism, mostly in the European Union. The decline in January-August 2020 represents 700 million fewer international tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019, and translates into a loss of US$ 730 billion in export revenues from international tourism, more than 8 times the loss in 2009 under the impact of the global economic crisis. Asia and the Pacific, the first region to suffer the impact of the pandemic, saw a 79% decrease in arrivals in January-August 2020. Africa and the Middle East both recorded a 69% drop this eight-month period, while Europe saw a 68% decline and the Americas 65%. Data on international tourism expenditure continues to reflect very weak demand for outbound travel, though in several large markets such as the United States, Germany and Italy there is a small uptick in spending in the months of July and August. Based on latest trends, a 75% decrease in international arrivals is estimated for the month of September and a drop of close to 70% for the whole of 2020. While demand for international travel remains subdued, domestic tourism is strengthening recovery in several large markets such as China and Russia. The UNWTO Confidence Index continues at record lows. Most UNWTO Panel Experts expect a rebound in international tourism by the third quarter of 2021 and a return to pre-pandemic 2019 levels not before 2023. Experts consider travel restrictions as the main barrier weighing on the recovery of international tourism, along with slow virus containment and low consumer confidence.

COVID-19 Border Closures: A Violation of Non-Refoulement Obligations in International Refugee and Human Rights Law?

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-48
Author(s):  
Kate Ogg ◽  
Chanelle Taoi
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
International Law ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Legal Analysis ◽  
Human Rights Law ◽  
Refugee Protection ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Border Policy ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Travel Restriction

Abstract COVID-19 has presented a number of challenges for the international refugee protection regime. An issue that has received little attention is the relationship between states tightening their borders in an effort to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and their non-refoulement obligations. This raises the question of how international law responds when non-refoulement obligations may conflict with other international human rights such as the rights to life and health. Further, the legal analysis of whether a particular COVID-19 border policy is in violation of non-refoulement obligations must take into account how the travel restriction will be implemented. This article provides an overarching analysis of non-refoulement provisions in international refugee and human rights law and which COVID-19 international travel restrictions may be in breach of these obligations. We examine different types of COVID-19 travel restrictions and argue that many are undoubtedly violations of non-refoulement, but others raise unsettled questions of international law. Nevertheless, there is jurisprudence and scholarship to support the proposition that a state’s non-refoulement obligations can be triggered even in these more contested scenarios.

EBOLA OUTBREAKS AND INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS: CASE STUDIES OF CENTRAL AND WEST AFRICA REGIONS

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (02) ◽  
pp. 431-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
NOURRIDINE SIEWE ◽  
SUZANNE LENHART ◽  
ABDUL-AZIZ YAKUBU
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Economic Community ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
International Borders ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
National Borders

Ebola outbreaks in Africa have occurred mostly in the Central and West Africa regions that are politically identified as the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) and Economic Community of Western African States (ECOWAS), respectively. In the ECOWAS region, people and goods are allowed to travel freely across national borders of all the 15 member countries, but in the ECCAS region such regional travel across the national borders of its 10 member countries is limited. In this paper, we use parameterized mathematical models of Ebola to investigate the effects of free international travel, and the timing of border closings, on the high number of Ebola infection cases and deaths of the recent 2014–2016 Ebola outbreaks in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone (ECOWAS); as compared to previous and current outbreaks in Democratic Republic of Congo (ECCAS, 1976–2018). Simulations of our single-patch Ebola model without movement of humans across international borders are shown to capture the recorded numbers of Ebola infections and deaths in the ECCAS region, and simulations of our 3-patch model with interpatch movements capture that of the ECOWAS region. We obtain that international travel restrictions and timing of border closings can play important roles in mitigating against the spread of future fatal infectious disease outbreaks.

scholarly journals ЮНВТО Всемирная туристская Барометр, и статистическое приложение Обновленная информация, Декабрь 2020 года

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 1-36
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Travel ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

International tourism expected to decline over 70% in 2020, back to levels of 30 years ago International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) fell by 72% in January-October 2020 over the same period last year, curbed by slow virus containment, low traveller confidence and important restrictions on travel still in place, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline in the first ten months of the year represents 900 million fewer international tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019, and translates into a loss of US$ 935 billion in export revenues from international tourism, more than 10 times the loss in 2009 under the impact of the global economic crisis. Asia and the Pacific saw an 82% decrease in arrivals in January-October 2020. The Middle East recorded a 73% decline, while Africa saw a 69% drop this ten-month period. International arrivals in both Europe and the Americas declined by 68%. Data on international tourism expenditure continues to reflect very weak demand for outbound travel. However, some large markets such as the United States, Germany and France have shown some shy signs of recovery in the recent months. While demand for international travel remains subdued, domestic tourism continues to grow in several large markets such as China and Russia, where domestic air travel demand has mostly returned to pre-COVID levels. Based on current trends, UNWTO expects international arrivals to decline by 70% to 75% for the whole of 2020. This would mean that international tourism could have returned to levels of 30 years ago. The estimated decline in internationals tourism in 2020 is equivalent to a loss of about 1 billion arrivals and US$ 1.1 trillion in international tourism receipts. This plunge in international tourism could result in an estimated economic loss of over US$ 2 trillion in global GDP, more than 2% of the world’s GDP in 2019. Looking ahead, the announcement and the roll-out of a vaccine are expected to gradually increase consumer confidence and contribute to ease travel restrictions. UNWTO’s extended scenarios for 2021-2024 point to a rebound in international tourism by the second half of 2021. Nonetheless, a return to 2019 levels in terms of international arrivals could take 2½ to 4 years.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in Africa: The cost of perceived low incidence rates

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 050-054
Author(s):  
David Olufemi Adesanya ◽  
Precious Chidozie Azubuike
Keyword(s):  
Viral Disease ◽  
Information Management System ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
The Novel ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Care Workers ◽  
Low Incidence ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

COVID-19 is a viral disease caused by the novel coronavirus and has hit many countries of the world heavily. The impact of COVID-19 in Africa, is contrary to the experts and professional predictions. Most African have very poor healthcare systems, water supply, sanitary environment and other factors that are requisite to combating the spread of the virus. Reports on COVID-19 incidence from Africa may not be a true reflection of the actual situation. The poor health information management system predominant in most African countries and the inability to carry out effective testing for cases could be responsible for this reported low incidence rates. The implications of perceived low incidence constitute a burden to governments of nations, health care workers, educational and other institutions, communities, women and girls; as well as members of the population. As the virus spreads across Africa, there is a need to improve active case finding and report same to enable effective planning and resource mobilization towards containing the spread of the virus.

scholarly journals Coast-to-coast spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States revealed by genomic epidemiology

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph R. Fauver ◽  
Mary E. Petrone ◽  
Emma B. Hodcroft ◽  
Kayoko Shioda ◽  
Hanna Y. Ehrlich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Viral Genomes ◽  
Genomic Epidemiology ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The U.S

SummarySince its emergence and detection in Wuhan, China in late 2019, the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has spread to nearly every country around the world, resulting in hundreds of thousands of infections to date. The virus was first detected in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States in January, 2020, with subsequent COVID-19 outbreaks detected in all 50 states by early March. To uncover the sources of SARS-CoV-2 introductions and patterns of spread within the U.S., we sequenced nine viral genomes from early reported COVID-19 patients in Connecticut. Our phylogenetic analysis places the majority of these genomes with viruses sequenced from Washington state. By coupling our genomic data with domestic and international travel patterns, we show that early SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Connecticut was likely driven by domestic introductions. Moreover, the risk of domestic importation to Connecticut exceeded that of international importation by mid-March regardless of our estimated impacts of federal travel restrictions. This study provides evidence for widespread, sustained transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within the U.S. and highlights the critical need for local surveillance.

scholarly journals Music industry in crisis: The impact of a novel coronavirus on touring metal bands, promoters, and venues

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle J. Messick
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Interviews ◽  
Music Industry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Metal Music ◽  
Preventative Measures ◽  
Live Music ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Financial Losses

In March of 2020 the world began to take widespread preventative measures against the spread of a novel coronavirus through travel restrictions, quarantines, and limitations on group gatherings. These restrictions resulted in the immediate closing of many businesses, including concerts venues, and also put an abrupt end to live music performances across Europe and the United States. This had immediate implications for touring bands, as bands earn most of their income touring, and many found themselves in a situation where they experienced substantial financial losses alongside negative affective ramifications. This article utilized evidence from qualitative interviews and public statements to draw inferences about the impact of COVID-19 on the music industry, with a particular focus on touring musicians and their respective managers, promoters, booking agencies, and record labels. Musicians reported negative affective and financial ramifications as a result of COVID-19, but they also reported overwhelming support from metal music fans that made the fallout from the pandemic less severe.

scholarly journals The impact of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huaiyu Tian ◽  
Yonghong Liu ◽  
Yidan Li ◽  
Chieh-Hsi Wu ◽  
Bin Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Response ◽  
Case Reports ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
National Emergency ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

AbstractRespiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) appeared in China during December 2019. Attempting to contain infection, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January and implemented a national emergency response. Here we evaluate the spread and control of the epidemic based on a unique synthesis of data including case reports, human movement and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown slowed the dispersal of infection to other cities by an estimated 2.91 days (95%CI: 2.54-3.29), delaying epidemic growth elsewhere in China. Other cities that implemented control measures pre-emptively reported 33.3% (11.1-44.4%) fewer cases in the first week of their outbreaks (13.0; 7.1-18.8) compared with cities that started control later (20.6; 14.5-26.8). Among interventions investigated here, the most effective were suspending intra-city public transport, closing entertainment venues and banning public gatherings. The national emergency response delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic and, by 19 February (day 50), had averted hundreds of thousands of cases across China.One sentence summaryTravel restrictions and the national emergency response delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China.

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