scholarly journals The Impact of the November 2020 English National Lockdown on COVID-19 case counts

Author(s):  
Paul R Hunter ◽  
Julii Brainard ◽  
Alastair Grant

In the UK the epidemic of COVID-19 continues to pose a significant threat to public health. On the 14th October the English government introduced a tier system for control of the epidemic but just 3 weeks later a National lockdown across all areas of England was implemented. When English areas emerged from Lockdown many were placed in different tiers (most typically moved up at least one tier). However, the effectiveness of the tier system has been challenged by the emergence of a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 which appears to be much more infectious. In addition, from early November a trial mass testing service was being run in Liverpool. We used publicly available data of daily cases by local authority (local government areas) and estimated the reproductive rate (R value) of the epidemic based on 7-day case numbers compared with the previous 7-day period. There was a clear surge in infections from a few days before to several days after the lockdown was implemented. But this surge was almost exclusively associated with Tier 1 and Tier 2 authorities. In Tier 3 authorities where hospitality venues were only allowed to operate as restaurants there was no such surge. After this initial surge, cases declined in all three tiers with the R value dropping to a mean of about 0.7 independent of tier. London, The South East and East of England Regions saw rising infection rates in the last week or so of lockdown primarily in children of secondary school age. We could find no obvious benefit of the trial mass screening programme in Liverpool city. We conclude that in Tiers 1 and 2 much of the beneficial impact of the national lockdown was lost probably because of the leak of its likely implementation five days early leading to increased socialising in these areas before the start of lockdown. We further conclude that given that the new variant is estimated to have an R value of between 0.39 and 0.93 greater than previous variants, any lockdown as strict as the November one would be insufficient to reverse the increase in infections by itself. The value of city-wide mass testing to control the epidemic remains uncertain.

Author(s):  
Paul R Hunter ◽  
Julii Brainard ◽  
Alastair Grant

Despite it being over 10 months since COVID-19 was first reported to the world and it having caused over 1.3 million deaths it is still uncertain how the virus can be controlled whilst minimising the negative impacts on society and the economy. On the 14th October, England introduced a three-tier system of regional restrictions in an attempt to control the epidemic. This lasted until the 5th November when a new national lockdown was imposed. Tier 1 was the least and Tier 3 the most restrictive tiers. We used publicly available data of daily cases by local authority (local government areas) and estimated the reproductive rate (R value) of the epidemic over the previous 14 days at various time points after the imposition of the tier system or where local authorities were moved into higher tiers at time points after reallocation. At day 0 there vas very little difference in the R value between authorities in the different groups but by day 14 the R value in Tier 3 authorities had fallen to about 0.9, in Tier 2 to about 1.0 and in Tier 1 the R value was about 1.5. The restrictions in Tier 1 had little impact on transmission and allowed exponential growth in the large majority of authorities. By contrast the epidemic was declining in most Tier 3 authorities. In Tier 2, exponential growth was being seen in about half of authorities but declining in half. We concluded that the existing three tier system would have been sufficient to control the epidemic if all authorities had been moved out of Tier 1 into tier 2 and there had been more rapid identification and transfer of those authorities where the epidemic was increasing out of Tier 2 into Tier 3. A more restrictive tier than Tier 3 may be needed but only by a small number of authorities.


BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. e050346
Author(s):  
Daniel J Laydon ◽  
Swapnil Mishra ◽  
Wes R Hinsley ◽  
Pantelis Samartsidis ◽  
Seth Flaxman ◽  
...  

ObjectiveTo measure the effects of the tier system on the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns, before the emergence of the B.1.1.7 variant of concern.DesignThis is a modelling study combining estimates of real-time reproduction number Rt (derived from UK case, death and serological survey data) with publicly available data on regional non-pharmaceutical interventions. We fit a Bayesian hierarchical model with latent factors using these quantities to account for broader national trends in addition to subnational effects from tiers.SettingThe UK at lower tier local authority (LTLA) level. 310 LTLAs were included in the analysis.Primary and secondary outcome measuresReduction in real-time reproduction number Rt.ResultsNationally, transmission increased between July and late September, regional differences notwithstanding. Immediately prior to the introduction of the tier system, Rt averaged 1.3 (0.9–1.6) across LTLAs, but declined to an average of 1.1 (0.86–1.42) 2 weeks later. Decline in transmission was not solely attributable to tiers. Tier 1 had negligible effects. Tiers 2 and 3, respectively, reduced transmission by 6% (5%–7%) and 23% (21%–25%). 288 LTLAs (93%) would have begun to suppress their epidemics if every LTLA had gone into tier 3 by the second national lockdown, whereas only 90 (29%) did so in reality.ConclusionsThe relatively small effect sizes found in this analysis demonstrate that interventions at least as stringent as tier 3 are required to suppress transmission, especially considering more transmissible variants, at least until effective vaccination is widespread or much greater population immunity has amassed.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruth A Benson

ABSTRACTBackgroundThe novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is having a profound impact on global healthcare. Shortages in staff, operating theatre space and intensive care beds has led to a significant reduction in the provision of surgical care. Even vascular surgery, often insulated from resource scarcity due to its status as an urgent specialty, has limited capacity due to the pandemic. Furthermore, many vascular surgical patients are elderly with multiple comorbidities putting them at increased risk of COVID-19 and its complications. There is an urgent need to investigate the impact on patients presenting to vascular surgeons during the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods and AnalysisThe COvid-19 Vascular sERvice (COVER) study has been designed to investigate the worldwide impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on vascular surgery, at both service provision and individual patient level. COVER is running as a collaborative study through the Vascular and Endovascular Research Network (VERN) with the support of numerous national (Vascular Society of Great Britain and Ireland, British Society of Endovascular Therapy, British Society of Interventional Radiology, Rouleaux Club) and an evolving number of international organisations (Vascupedia, SingVasc, Audible Bleeding (USA), Australian and New Zealand Vascular Trials Network (ANZVTN)). The study has 3 ‘Tiers’: Tier 1 is a survey of vascular surgeons to capture longitudinal changes to the provision of vascular services within their hospital; Tier 2 captures data on vascular and endovascular procedures performed during the pandemic; and Tier 3 will capture any deviations to patient management strategies from prepandemic best practice. Data submission and collection will be electronic using online survey tools (Tier 1: SurveyMonkey® for service provision data) and encrypted data capture forms (Tiers 2 and 3: REDCap® for patient level data). Tier 1 data will undergo real-time serial analysis to determine longitudinal changes in practice, with country-specific analyses also performed. The analysis of Tier 2 and Tier 3 data will occur on completion of the study as per the prespecified statistical analysis plan.Ethical ApprovalEthical approval from the UK Health Research Authority has been obtained for Tiers 2 and 3 (20/NW/0196 Liverpool Central). Participating centres in the UK will be required to seek local research and development approval. Non-UK centres will need to obtain a research ethics committee or institutional review board approvals in accordance with national and/or local requirements.ISRCTN: 80453162 (https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN80453162)Ethical Approval: 20/NW/0196 Liverpool Central, IRAS: 282224


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Huifeng Bai ◽  
Julie McColl ◽  
Christopher Moore ◽  
Weijing He ◽  
Jin Shi

PurposeThis empirical study, from the international retailing perspective, examines the direction of retailers' further expansion after initial entry into overseas host market in the context of the luxury fashion retail market in China.Design/methodology/approachThe research adopts qualitative multiple case studies.FindingsAfter initial entry into China, luxury fashion retailers further expand their retail operations through three directional patterns: cautious, regional and countrywide expansions. The stepwise expansion from tier-1 to tier-2 and tier-3 cities remains popular; however, the importance of the tier system of Chinese cities has been weakened because tier-3 cities in affluent regions are perceived to have more potential than some tier-2 cities in less developed regions. The retailers assess a potential local market through interrelated criteria, including location and strategic importance, economic development, available store locations and staff, a high degree of urbanisation and tourism, debatable favourable policies and offers, and popularity of e- and m-commerce. There is a positive relationship between popularity of e- and m-commerce in a city and the potential of that city to run brick-and-mortar stores.Originality/valueThe paper offers an insight into the current international retailing literature by examining the direction of luxury fashion retailers' further expansion after their initial market entry. Particularly, the research considers a set of criteria which can be used to assess a potential local market, and the impact of e- and m-commerce on local market choices for brick-and-mortar stores.


Author(s):  
Emma Southall ◽  
Alex Holmes ◽  
Edward M. Hill ◽  
Benjamin D. Atkins ◽  
Trystan Leng ◽  
...  

AbstractThe introduction of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 infection, in the UK in early 2020, resulted in the UK government introducing several control policies in order to reduce the spread of disease. As part of these restrictions, schools were closed to all pupils in March (except for vulnerable and key worker children), before re-opening to certain year groups in June. Finally all school children returned to the classroom in September. In this paper, we analyse the data on school absences from September 2020 to December 2020 as a result of COVID-19 infection and how that varied through time as other measures in the community were introduced. We utilise data from the Educational Settings database compiled by the Department for Education and examine how pupil and teacher absences change in both primary and secondary schools.Our results show that absences as a result of COVID-19 infection rose steadily following the re-opening of schools in September. Cases in teachers were seen to decline during the November lockdown, particularly in those regions that had previously been in tier 3, the highest level of control at the time. Cases in secondary school pupils increased for the first two weeks of the November lockdown, before decreasing. Since the introduction of the tier system, the number of absences owing to confirmed infection in primary schools was observed to be significantly lower than in secondary schools across all regions and tiers.In December, we observed a large rise in the number of absences per school in secondary school settings in the South East and Greater London, but such rises were not observed in other regions or in primary school settings. We conjecture that the increased transmissibility of the new variant in these regions may have contributed to this rise in cases in secondary schools. Finally, we observe a positive correlation between cases in the community and cases in schools in most regions, with weak evidence suggesting that cases in schools lag behind cases in the surrounding community. We conclude that there is not significant evidence to suggest that schools are playing a significant role in driving spread in the community and that careful monitoring may be required as schools re-open to determine the effect associated with open schools upon community incidence.


2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (28_suppl) ◽  
pp. 14-14
Author(s):  
Charu Aggarwal ◽  
Melina Elpi Marmarelis ◽  
Wei-Ting Hwang ◽  
Dylan G. Scholes ◽  
Aditi Puri Singh ◽  
...  

14 Background: Current NCCN guidelines recommend comprehensive molecular profiling for all newly diagnosed patients with metastatic non-squamous NSCLC to enable the delivery of personalized medicine. We have previously demonstrated that incorporation of plasma based next-generation gene sequencing (NGS) improves detection of clinically actionable mutations in patients with advanced NSCLC (Aggarwal et al, JAMA Oncology, 2018). To increase rates of comprehensive molecular testing at our institution, we adapted our clinical practice to include concurrent use of plasma (P) and tissue (T) based NGS upon initial diagnosis. P NGS testing was performed using a commercial 74 gene assay. We analyzed the impact of this practice change on guideline concordant molecular testing at our institution. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of patients with newly diagnosed metastatic non-squamous NSCLC following the implementation of this practice change in 12/2018 was performed. Tiers of NCCN guideline concordant testing were defined, Tier 1: complete EGFR, ALK, BRAF, ROS1, MET, RET, NTRK testing, Tier 2: included above, but with incomplete NTRK testing, Tier 3: > 2 genes tested, Tier 4: single gene testing, Tier 5: no testing. Proportion of patients with comprehensive molecular testing by modality (T NGS vs. T+P NGS) were compared using one-sided Fisher’s exact test. Results: Between 01/2019, and 12/2019, 170 patients with newly diagnosed metastatic non-Sq NSCLC were treated at our institution. Overall, 98.2% (167/170) patients underwent molecular testing, Tier 1: n = 100 (59%), Tier 2: n = 39 (23%), Tier 3/4: n = 28 (16.5%), Tier 5: n = 3 (2%). Amongst these patients, 43.1% (72/167) were tested with T NGS alone, 8% (15/167) with P NGS alone, and 47.9% (80/167) with T+P NGS. A higher proportion of patients underwent comprehensive molecular testing (Tiers 1+2) using T+P NGS: 95.7% (79/80) compared to T alone: 62.5% (45/72), p < 0.0005. Prior to the initiation of first line treatment, 72.4% (123/170) patients underwent molecular testing, Tier 1: n = 73 (59%), Tier 2: n = 27 (22%) and Tier 3/4: n = 23 (18%). Amongst these, 39% (48/123) were tested with T NGS alone, 7% (9/123) with P NGS alone and 53.6% (66/123) with T+P NGS. A higher proportion of patients underwent comprehensive molecular testing (Tiers 1+2) using T+P NGS, 100% (66/66) compared to 52% (25/48) with T NGS alone (p < 0.0005). Conclusions: Incorporation of concurrent T+P NGS testing in treatment naïve metastatic non-Sq NSCLC significantly increased the proportion of patients undergoing guideline concordant molecular testing, including prior to initiation of first-line therapy at our institution. Concurrent T+P NGS should be adopted into institutional pathways and routine clinical practice.


Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 938 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nishant Narayan ◽  
Ali Chamseddine ◽  
Victor Vega-Garita ◽  
Zian Qin ◽  
Jelena Popovic-Gerber ◽  
...  

Off-grid solar home systems (SHSs) currently constitute a major source of providing basic electricity needs in un(der)-electrified regions of the world, with around 73 million households having benefited from off-grid solar solutions by 2017. However, in and of itself, state-of-the-art SHSs can only provide electricity access with adequate power supply availability up to tier 2, and to some extent, tier 3 levels of the Multi-tier Framework (MTF) for measuring household electricity access. When considering system metrics of loss of load probability (LLP) and battery size, meeting the electricity needs of tiers 4 and 5 is untenable through SHSs alone. Alternatively, a bottom-up microgrid composed of interconnected SHSs is proposed. Such an approach can enable the so-called climb up the rural electrification ladder. The impact of the microgrid size on the system metrics like LLP and energy deficit is evaluated. Finally, it is found that the interconnected SHS-based microgrid can provide more than 40% and 30% gains in battery sizing for the same LLP level as compared to the standalone SHSs sizes for tiers 4 and 5 of the MTF, respectively, thus quantifying the definite gains of an SHS-based microgrid over standalone SHSs. This study paves the way for visualizing SHS-based rural DC microgrids that can not only enable electricity access to the higher tiers of the MTF with lower battery storage needs but also make use of existing SHS infrastructure, thus enabling a technologically easy climb up the rural electrification ladder.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths ◽  
Robyn Stuart ◽  
Cliff Kerr ◽  
Katherine Rosenfeld ◽  
Dina Mistry ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Following the resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK in late 2020 and the emergence of the new variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, B.1.1.7, a third national lockdown was imposed from January 5, 2021. Following the decline of COVID-19 cases over the remainder of January 2021, it is important to assess the conditions under which reopening schools from early March is likely to lead to resurgence of the epidemic. This study models the impact of a partial national lockdown with social distancing measures enacted in communities and workplaces under different strategies of reopening schools from March 8, 2021 and compares it to the impact of continual full national lockdown remaining until April 19, 2021. Methods We used our previously published model, Covasim, to model the emergence of B.1.1.7 over September 1, 2020 to January 31, 2021. We extended the model to incorporate the impacts of the roll-out of a two-dose vaccine against COVID-19, assuming 200,000 daily doses of the vaccine in people 75 years or older with vaccination that offers 95% reduction in disease acquisition and 10% reduction of transmission blocking. We used the model, calibrated until January 25, 2021, to simulate the impact of a full national lockdown (FNL) with schools closed until April 19, 2021 versus four different partial national lockdown (PNL) scenarios with different elements of schooling open: 1) staggered PNL with primary schools and exam-entry years (years 11 and 13) returning on March 8, 2021 and the rest of the schools years on March 15, 2020; 2) full-return PNL with both primary and secondary schools returning on March 8, 2021; 3) primary-only PNL with primary schools and exam critical years (Y11 and Y13) going back only on March 8, 2021 with the rest of the secondary schools back on April 19, 2021 and 4) part-Rota PNL with both primary and secondary schools returning on March 8, 2021 with primary schools remaining open continuously but secondary schools on a two-weekly rota-system with years alternating between a fortnight of face-to-face and remote learning until April 19, 2021. Across all scenarios, we projected the number of new daily cases, cumulative deaths and effective reproduction number R until April 30, 2020. Results Our calibration across different scenarios is consistent with the new variant B.1.1.7 being around 60% more transmissible. Strict social distancing measures, i.e. national lockdowns, are required to contain the spread of the virus and control the hospitalisations and deaths during January and February 2021. The national lockdown will reduce the number of cases by early March levels similar to those seen in October with R also falling and remaining below 1 during the lockdown. Infections start to increase when schools open but if other parts of society remain closed this resurgence is not sufficient to bring R above 1. Reopening primary schools and exam critical years only or having primary schools open continuously with secondary schools on rotas will lead to lower increases in cases and R than if all schools open. Under the current vaccination assumptions and across the set of scenarios considered, R would increase above 1 if society reopens simultaneously, simulated here from April 19, 2021.Findings Our findings suggest that stringent measures are necessary to mitigate the increase in cases and bring R below 1 over January and February 2021. It is plausible that a PNL with schools partially open from March 8, 2021 and the rest of the society remaining closed until April 19, 2021 may keep R below 1, with some increase evident in infections compared to continual FNL until April 19, 2021. Reopening society in mid-April, with the vaccination strategy we model, could push R above 1 and induce a surge in infections, but the effect of vaccination may be able to control this in future depending on the transmission blocking properties of the vaccines.


Crisis ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 194-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Marzano ◽  
Mark Smith ◽  
Matthew Long ◽  
Charlotte Kisby ◽  
Keith Hawton

Abstract. Background: Police officers are frequently the first responders to individuals in crisis, but generally receive little training for this role. We developed and evaluated training in suicide awareness and prevention for frontline rail police in the UK. Aims: To investigate the impact of training on officers’ suicide prevention attitudes, confidence, and knowledge. Method: Fifty-three participants completed a brief questionnaire before and after undertaking training. In addition, two focus groups were conducted with 10 officers to explore in greater depth their views and experiences of the training program and the perceived impact on practice. Results: Baseline levels of suicide prevention attitudes, confidence, and knowledge were mixed but mostly positive and improved significantly after training. Such improvements were seemingly maintained over time, but there was insufficient power to test this statistically. Feedback on the course was generally excellent, notwithstanding some criticisms and suggestions for improvement. Conclusion: Training in suicide prevention appears to have been well received and to have had a beneficial impact on officers’ attitudes, confidence, and knowledge. Further research is needed to assess its longer-term effects on police attitudes, skills, and interactions with suicidal individuals, and to establish its relative effectiveness in the context of multilevel interventions.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. e0243299
Author(s):  
Ruth A. Benson ◽  
Sandip Nandhra ◽  

Background The novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is having a profound impact on global healthcare. Shortages in staff, operating theatre space and intensive care beds has led to a significant reduction in the provision of surgical care. Even vascular surgery, often insulated from resource scarcity due to its status as an urgent specialty, has limited capacity due to the pandemic. Furthermore, many vascular surgical patients are elderly with multiple comorbidities putting them at increased risk of COVID-19 and its complications. There is an urgent need to investigate the impact on patients presenting to vascular surgeons during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods and analysis The COvid-19 Vascular sERvice (COVER) study has been designed to investigate the worldwide impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on vascular surgery, at both service provision and individual patient level. COVER is running as a collaborative study through the Vascular and Endovascular Research Network (VERN), an independent, international vascular research collaborative with the support of numerous national and international organisations). The study has 3 ‘Tiers’: Tier 1 is a survey of vascular surgeons to capture longitudinal changes to the provision of vascular services within their hospital; Tier 2 captures data on vascular and endovascular procedures performed during the pandemic; and Tier 3 will capture any deviations to patient management strategies from pre-pandemic best practice. Data submission and collection will be electronic using online survey tools (Tier 1: SurveyMonkey® for service provision data) and encrypted data capture forms (Tiers 2 and 3: REDCap® for patient level data). Tier 1 data will undergo real-time serial analysis to determine longitudinal changes in practice, with country-specific analyses also performed. The analysis of Tier 2 and Tier 3 data will occur on completion of the study as per the pre-specified statistical analysis plan.


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