Evolution of butterfly-plant networks over time, as revealed by Bayesian inference of host repertoire

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariana P Braga ◽  
Niklas Janz ◽  
Sören Nylin ◽  
Fredrik Ronquist ◽  
Michael J Landis

AbstractThe study of herbivorous insects underpins much of the theory that concerns the evolution of species interactions. In particular, Pieridae butterflies and their host plants have served as a model system for studying evolutionary arms-races. To learn more about how the two lineages co-evolved over time, we reconstructed ecological networks and network properties using a phylogenetic model of host-repertoire evolution. In tempo and mode, host-repertoire evolution in Pieridae is slower and more conservative when compared to similar model-based estimates previously obtained for another butterfly clade, Nymphalini. Our study provides detailed insights into how host shifts, host range expansions, and recolonizations of ancestral hosts have shaped the Pieridae-angiosperm network through a phase transition from a disconnected to a connected network. Our results demonstrate the power of combining network analysis with Bayesian inference of host repertoire evolution in understanding how complex species interactions change over time.

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Vermunt ◽  
Ellen Dicks ◽  
Guoqiao Wang ◽  
Aylin Dincer ◽  
Shaney Flores ◽  
...  

Abstract Structural grey matter covariance networks provide an individual quantification of morphological patterns in the brain. The network integrity is disrupted in sporadic Alzheimer’s disease, and network properties show associations with the level of amyloid pathology and cognitive decline. Therefore, these network properties might be disease progression markers. However, it remains unclear when and how grey matter network integrity changes with disease progression. We investigated these questions in autosomal dominant Alzheimer’s disease mutation carriers, whose conserved age at dementia onset allows individual staging based upon their estimated years to symptom onset. From the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network observational cohort, we selected T1-weighted MRI scans from 269 mutation carriers and 170 non-carriers (mean age 38 ± 15 years, mean estimated years to symptom onset −9 ± 11), of whom 237 had longitudinal scans with a mean follow-up of 3.0 years. Single-subject grey matter networks were extracted, and we calculated for each individual the network properties which describe the network topology, including the size, clustering, path length and small worldness. We determined at which time point mutation carriers and non-carriers diverged for global and regional grey matter network metrics, both cross-sectionally and for rate of change over time. Based on cross-sectional data, the earliest difference was observed in normalized path length, which was decreased for mutation carriers in the precuneus area at 13 years and on a global level 12 years before estimated symptom onset. Based on longitudinal data, we found the earliest difference between groups on a global level 6 years before symptom onset, with a greater rate of decline of network size for mutation carriers. We further compared grey matter network small worldness with established biomarkers for Alzheimer disease (i.e. amyloid accumulation, cortical thickness, brain metabolism and cognitive function). We found that greater amyloid accumulation at baseline was associated with faster decline of small worldness over time, and decline in grey matter network measures over time was accompanied by decline in brain metabolism, cortical thinning and cognitive decline. In summary, network measures decline in autosomal dominant Alzheimer’s disease, which is alike sporadic Alzheimer’s disease, and the properties show decline over time prior to estimated symptom onset. These data suggest that single-subject networks properties obtained from structural MRI scans form an additional non-invasive tool for understanding the substrate of cognitive decline and measuring progression from preclinical to severe clinical stages of Alzheimer’s disease.


2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. D. Wilkie ◽  
Şule Şahin

AbstractIn this paper, we consider a number of practical and theoretical aspects of the Wilkie asset model, many of which apply to any similar model used for simulation over time. We discuss the experience of the Wilkie model since 2009. We then discuss the variables that can form the working set, the input set and the output set, all of which may be different. There are different ways of simulating, either in a linear parallel structure or in a branching tree structure. We then discuss the initial conditions required, which may be market conditions at some date, or may be “neutral” initial conditions, which may be defined in different ways. One method of generating initial conditions would be to simulate them randomly, from their own long-term distribution, and we show how to calculate the means, variances and covariances of these. What we call “neutralising parameters” may have a role, and we discuss how these may be found. Finally, we suggest using additional information in the first periods of the simulation to adjust the formulae or parameters for a limited “select period”.


1994 ◽  
Vol 10 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 596-608 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E. McCulloch ◽  
Ruey S. Tsay

This paper proposes a general Bayesian framework for distinguishing between trend- and difference-stationarity. Usually, in model selection, we assume that all of the data were generated by one of the models under consideration. In studying time series, however, we may be concerned that the process is changing over time, so that the preferred model changes over time as well. To handle this possibility, we compute the posterior probabilities of the competing models for each observation. This way we can see if different segments of the series behave differently with respect to the competing models. The proposed method is a generalization of the usual odds ratio for model discrimination in Bayesian inference. In application, we employ the Gibbs sampler to overcome the computational difficulty. The procedure is illustrated by a real example.


BMJ Open ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. e012174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcela I Cespedes ◽  
Jurgen Fripp ◽  
James M McGree ◽  
Christopher C Drovandi ◽  
Kerrie Mengersen ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew H J Chaumont ◽  
Naomi E Langmore ◽  
Justin A Welbergen

Abstract Coevolutionary arms races between brood parasites and hosts provide tractable systems for understanding antagonistic coevolution in nature; however, little is known about the fate of frontline antiparasite defences when the host ‘wins’ the coevolutionary arms race. By recreating bygone species-interactions, using artificial parasitism experiments, lingering defensive behaviors that evolved in the context of parasitism can be understood and may even be used to identify the unknown agent of parasitism past. Here we present the first study of this type by evaluating lingering “frontline” nest defences that have evolved to prevent egg laying in a former brood parasite host. The Australian reed warbler Acrocephalus australis, is currently not parasitized but is known to exhibit fine-tuned egg discrimination—a defensive behavior indicative of a past brood parasite-host arms race and common in closely related parasitized species. Here, using 3 D-printed models of adult brood parasites, we examined whether the Australian reed warbler also exhibits frontline defences to adult brood parasites, and whether we could use these defences to identify the warbler’s “ghost of parasitism past”. Our findings provide evidence that the Australian reed warbler readily engages in frontline defences that are considered adaptive specifically in the context of brood parasitism. However, individuals were unable to discriminate between adults of different brood parasite species at their nest. Overall, our results demonstrate that despite a relaxation in selection, defences against brood parasitism can be maintained across multiple stages of the host’s nesting cycle, and further suggest that, in accordance with previous findings, that learning may be important for fine-tuning frontline defence.


BMC Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Duran-Pinedo ◽  
Jose Solbiati ◽  
Flavia Teles ◽  
Ricardo Teles ◽  
Yanping Zang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Oral microbiome dysbiosis is linked to overt inflammation of tooth-supporting tissues, leading to periodontitis, an oral condition that can cause tooth and bone loss. Microbiome dysbiosis has been described as a disruption in the symbiotic microbiota composition’s stability that could adversely affect the host’s health status. However, the precise microbiome dynamics that lead to dysbiosis and the progression of the disease are largely unknown. The objective of our study was to investigate the long-term dynamics of periodontitis progression and its connection to dysbiosis. Results We studied three different teeth groups: sites that showed disease progression, sites that remained stable during the study, and sites that exhibited a cyclic deepening followed by spontaneous recovery. Time-series analysis revealed that communities followed a characteristic succession of bacteria clusters. Stable and fluctuating sites showed high asynchrony in the communities (i.e., different species responding dissimilarly through time) and a reordering of the communities where directional changes dominated (i.e., sample distance increases over time) in the stable sites but not in the fluctuating sites. Progressing sites exhibited low asynchrony and convergence (i.e., samples distance decreases over time). Moreover, new species were more likely to be recruited in stable samples if a close relative was not recruited previously. In contrast, progressing and fluctuating sites followed a neutral recruitment model, indicating that competition between closely related species is a significant component of species-species interactions in stable samples. Finally, periodontal treatment did not select similar communities but stabilized α-diversity, centered the abundance of different clusters to the mean, and increased community rearrangement. Conclusions Here, we show that ecological principles can define dysbiosis and explain the evolution and outcomes of specific microbial communities of the oral microbiome in periodontitis progression. All sites showed an ecological succession in community composition. Stable sites were characterized by high asynchrony, a reordering of the communities where directional changes dominated, and new species were more likely to be recruited if a close relative was not recruited previously. Progressing sites were characterized by low asynchrony, community convergence, and a neutral model of recruitment. Finally, fluctuating sites were characterized by high asynchrony, community convergence, and a neutral recruitment model.


Author(s):  
Alexandru D. Iordan ◽  
Katherine A. Cooke ◽  
Kyle D. Moored ◽  
Benjamin Katz ◽  
Martin Buschkuehl ◽  
...  

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thadeu Sobral-Souza ◽  
Ronaldo Bastos Francini ◽  
Murilo Guimarães ◽  
Woodruff Withman Benson

Although tropical insect populations are generally regarded as constant and stable over time, some of these tropical populations, including butterflies, may fluctuate according to precipitation and temperature variation, specialized feeding patterns, and density-dependent factors. Heliconiini butterfly populations are generally regarded as stable over time because of the presence of host-plants and absence of diapause. However, peaks of abundance occur in subtropical Heliconius populations, and opposite trends concerning stability are found in the literature. Here we further investigate the dynamics of subtropical Heliconius butterflies by assessing a population of the species Heliconius sara apseudes from southeastern Brazil. We estimated individual apparent survival probability and population growth rate while accounting for the imperfect detectability of individuals using mark-recapture models to evaluate the population dynamics. Adult males presented slightly higher weekly survival estimates than females. Contrary to the common pattern described in the literature for Heliconius populations we observed a rapid decline on the adult population by the end of the mating season, possibly leading to local extinction. We discuss the potential drivers for such dynamics.


2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 363-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jerzy Wielbo

AbstractThe term ‘Rhizobium-legume symbiosis’ refers to numerous plant-bacterial interrelationships. Typically, from an evolutionary perspective, these symbioses can be considered as species-to-species interactions, however, such plant-bacterial symbiosis may also be viewed as a low-scale environmental interplay between individual plants and the local microbial population. Rhizobium-legume interactions are therefore highly important in terms of microbial diversity and environmental adaptation thereby shaping the evolution of plant-bacterial symbiotic systems. Herein, the mechanisms underlying and modulating the diversity of rhizobial populations are presented. The roles of several factors impacting successful persistence of strains in rhizobial populations are discussed, shedding light on the complexity of rhizobial-legume interactions.


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