scholarly journals Explaining COVID-19 Outbreaks with Reactive SEIRD Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kunal Menda ◽  
Lucas Laird ◽  
Mykel J. Kochenderfer ◽  
Rajmonda S. Caceres
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
United States ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Expectation Maximization ◽  
The United States ◽  
County Level ◽  
Training Set ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Partial Observability ◽  
Level Data

AbstractCOVID-19 epidemics have varied dramatically in nature across the United States, where some counties have clear peaks in infections, and others have had a multitude of unpredictable and non-distinct peaks. In this work, we seek to explain the diversity in epidemic progressions by considering an extension to the compartmental SEIRD model. The model we propose uses a neural network to predict the infection rate as a function of time and of the prevalence of the disease. We provide a methodology for fitting this model to available county-level data describing aggregate cases and deaths. Our method uses Expectation-Maximization in order to overcome the challenge of partial observability—that the system’s state is only partially reflected in available data. We fit a single model to data from multiple counties in the United States exhibiting different behavior. By simulating the model, we show that it is capable of exhibiting both single peak and multi-peak behavior, reproducing behavior observed in counties both in and out of the training set. We also numerically compare the error of simulations from our model with a standard SEIRD model, showing that the proposed extensions are necessary to be able to explain the spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Explaining COVID-19 outbreaks with reactive SEIRD models

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kunal Menda ◽  
Lucas Laird ◽  
Mykel J. Kochenderfer ◽  
Rajmonda S. Caceres
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
United States ◽  
Expectation Maximization ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
County Level ◽  
Training Set ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Partial Observability ◽  
Level Data

AbstractCOVID-19 epidemics have varied dramatically in nature across the United States, where some counties have clear peaks in infections, and others have had a multitude of unpredictable and non-distinct peaks. Our lack of understanding of how the pandemic has evolved leads to increasing errors in our ability to predict the spread of the disease. This work seeks to explain this diversity in epidemic progressions by considering an extension to the compartmental SEIRD model. The model we propose uses a neural network to predict the infection rate as a function of both time and the disease’s prevalence. We provide a methodology for fitting this model to available county-level data describing aggregate cases and deaths. Our method uses Expectation-Maximization to overcome the challenge of partial observability, due to the fact that the system’s state is only partially reflected in available data. We fit a single model to data from multiple counties in the United States exhibiting different behavior. By simulating the model, we show that it can exhibit both single peak and multi-peak behavior, reproducing behavior observed in counties both in and out of the training set. We then compare the error of simulations from our model with a standard SEIRD model, and show that ours substantially reduces errors. We also use simulated data to compare our methodology for handling partial observability with a standard approach, showing that ours is significantly better at estimating the values of unobserved quantities.

Abstract P636: Social Determinants of Stroke Hospitalization and Mortality in the United States

Stroke ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Randhir Sagar Yadav ◽  
Durgesh Chaudhary ◽  
Shima Shahjouei ◽  
Jiang Li ◽  
Vida Abedi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Social Determinants ◽  
Hemorrhagic Stroke ◽  
The United States ◽  
Care Physician ◽  
County Level ◽  
Medicare Beneficiaries ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Control And Prevention

Introduction: Stroke hospitalization and mortality are influenced by various social determinants. This ecological study aimed to determine the associations between social determinants and stroke hospitalization and outcome at county-level in the United States. Methods: County-level data were recorded from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as of January 7, 2020. We considered four outcomes: all-age (1) Ischemic and (2) Hemorrhagic stroke Death rates per 100,000 individuals (ID and HD respectively), and (3) Ischemic and (4) Hemorrhagic stroke Hospitalization rate per 1,000 Medicare beneficiaries (IH and HH respectively). Results: Data of 3,225 counties showed IH (12.5 ± 3.4) and ID (22.2 ± 5.1) were more frequent than HH (2.0 ± 0.4) and HD (9.8 ± 2.1). Income inequality as expressed by Gini Index was found to be 44.6% ± 3.6% and unemployment rate was 4.3% ± 1.5%. Only 29.8% of the counties had at least one hospital with neurological services. The uninsured rate was 11.0% ± 4.7% and people living within half a mile of a park was only 18.7% ± 17.6%. Age-adjusted obesity rate was 32.0% ± 4.5%. In regression models, age-adjusted obesity (OR for IH: 1.11; HH: 1.04) and number of hospitals with neurological services (IH: 1.40; HH: 1.50) showed an association with IH and HH. Age-adjusted obesity (ID: 1.16; HD: 1.11), unemployment (ID: 1.21; HD: 1.18) and income inequality (ID: 1.09; HD: 1.11) showed an association with ID and HD. Park access showed inverse associations with all four outcomes. Additionally, population per primary-care physician was associated with HH while number of pharmacy and uninsured rate were associated with ID. All associations and OR had p ≤0.04. Conclusion: Unemployment and income inequality are significantly associated with increased stroke mortality rates.

scholarly journals The evolution of infant mortality inequality in the United States, 1960–2016

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (29) ◽  
pp. eaba5908
Author(s):  
Nick Turner ◽  
Kaveh Danesh ◽  
Kelsey Moran
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
County Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Antipoverty Programs ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Mortality Inequality

What is the relationship between infant mortality and poverty in the United States and how has it changed over time? We address this question by analyzing county-level data between 1960 and 2016. Our estimates suggest that level differences in mortality rates between the poorest and least poor counties decreased meaningfully between 1960 and 2000. Nearly three-quarters of the decrease occurred between 1960 and 1980, coincident with the introduction of antipoverty programs and improvements in medical care for infants. We estimate that declining inequality accounts for 18% of the national reduction in infant mortality between 1960 and 2000. However, we also find that level differences between the poorest and least poor counties remained constant between 2000 and 2016, suggesting an important role for policies that improve the health of infants in poor areas.

scholarly journals Concealed Handgun Licensing and Crime in Four States

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles D. Phillips ◽  
Obioma Nwaiwu ◽  
Szu-hsuan Lin ◽  
Rachel Edwards ◽  
Sara Imanpour ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Policy Issue ◽  
The United States ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
State Legislators ◽  
County Level ◽  
Contextual Variables ◽  
Research Tradition ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Firearm Policy

Firearm policy in the United States has long been a serious policy issue. Much of the previous research on crime and firearms focused on the effects of states’ passage of concealed handgun licensing (CHL) legislation. Today, given the proliferation of CHL legislation and growing strength of the “pro-gun” movement, the primary policy focus has changed. State legislators now face issues concerning whether and how to increase access to CHLs. Because of this transformation, this research moves away from the research tradition focused on the effect of a legislative change allowing CHLs. Instead, we consider two issues more policy relevant in the current era: What are the dynamics behind CHL licensing? Do increases in concealed handgun licensing affect crime rates? Using county-level data, we found that the density of gun dealers and other contextual variables, rather than changing crime rates, had a significant effect on increases of the rates at which CHLs were issued. We also found no significant effect of CHL increases on changes in crime rates. This research suggests that the rate at which CHLs are issued and crime rates are independent of one another—crime does not drive CHLs; CHLs do not drive crime.

scholarly journals ESTIMATING CORN YIELD IN THE UNITED STATES WITH MODIS EVI AND MACHINE LEARNING METHODS

2016 ◽  
Vol III-8 ◽  
pp. 131-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Kuwata ◽  
R. Shibasaki
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
United States ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
The United States ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Corn Yield ◽  
County Level ◽  
Entire Area ◽  
Modis Evi

Satellite remote sensing is commonly used to monitor crop yield in wide areas. Because many parameters are necessary for crop yield estimation, modelling the relationships between parameters and crop yield is generally complicated. Several methodologies using machine learning have been proposed to solve this issue, but the accuracy of county-level estimation remains to be improved. In addition, estimating county-level crop yield across an entire country has not yet been achieved. In this study, we applied a deep neural network (DNN) to estimate corn yield. We evaluated the estimation accuracy of the DNN model by comparing it with other models trained by different machine learning algorithms. We also prepared two time-series datasets differing in duration and confirmed the feature extraction performance of models by inputting each dataset. As a result, the DNN estimated county-level corn yield for the entire area of the United States with a determination coefficient (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup>) of 0.780 and a root mean square error (<i>RMSE</i>) of 18.2 bushels/acre. In addition, our results showed that estimation models that were trained by a neural network extracted features from the input data better than an existing machine learning algorithm.

scholarly journals Growth and Convergence across the United States: Evidence from County-Level Data

2006 ◽  
Vol 88 (4) ◽  
pp. 671-681 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J Higgins ◽  
Daniel Levy ◽  
Andrew T Young
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
County Level ◽  
Level Data

scholarly journals The participatory and partisan impacts of mandatory vote-by-mail

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (35) ◽  
pp. eabc7685
Author(s):  
Michael Barber ◽  
John B. Holbein
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Political Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Other ◽  
County Level ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Past ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Vote By Mail

Recently, mandatory vote-by-mail has received a great deal of attention as a means of administering elections in the United States. However, policy-makers disagree on the merits of this approach. Many of these debates hinge on whether mandatory vote-by-mail advantages one political party over the other. Using a unique pairing of historical county-level data that covers the past three decades and more than 40 million voting records from the two states that have conducted a staggered rollout of mandatory vote-by-mail (Washington and Utah), we use several methods for causal inference to show that mandatory vote-by-mail slightly increases voter turnout but has no effect on election outcomes at various levels of government. Our results find meaning given contemporary debates about the merits of mandatory vote-by-mail. Mandatory vote-by-mail ensures that citizens are given a safe means of casting their ballot while simultaneously not advantaging one political party over the other.

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