scholarly journals Study of the effectiveness of partial quarantines applied to control the spread of the Covid-19 virus

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Leon
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Cellular Automaton ◽  
Spatial Region ◽  
Free Zone ◽  
Individual Mobility ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
The World ◽  
Effectiveness And Efficiency ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

In Chile and in many countries of the world, partial quarantines have been used as part of the strategy to contain and control the Covid-19 virus. However, there is no certainty of its effectiveness and efficiency due to the lack of comparison with similar scenarios. In this work, we formulated a theoretical model of individual mobility, which also incorporates the infection dynamics of Covid-19. The model is based on a cellular automaton, which includes individuals moving through the represented spatial region and interacting according to the dynamics of Covid-19. In addition, we include mobile and partial health barriers, and different mobility regimes. Our results show that, partial quarantines would not be effective in general, to reduce the peak of active individuals infected with the virus, except for some proportions of territorial area involved in the division of the global region. Another interesting result of our research is that the passage restrictions in a sanitary barrier would not be relevant to the impact of the pandemic indicators in a sanitary quarantine regime. A possible explanation for the ineffectiveness of partial quarantines lies in the fact that the sanitary barriers are permeable to infected individuals and therefore when one of these individuals passes, an outbreak occurs in the virus-free zone that is independent of the original one.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modelling the Impact Evaluation of Lockdown on Infection Dynamics of COVID-19 in Italy.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniyar Yergesh ◽  
Shirali Kadyrov ◽  
Hayot Saydaliev ◽  
Alibek Orynbassar
Keyword(s):  
Policy Implementation ◽  
Impact Evaluation ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
Small Wave ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2), the cause of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), within months of emergence from Wuhan, China, has rapidly spread, exacting a devastating human toll across around the world reaching the pandemic stage at the the beginning of March 2020. Thus, COVID-19s daily increasing cases and deaths have led to worldwide lockdown, quarantine and some restrictions. Covid-19 epidemic in Italy started as a small wave of 2 infected cases on January 31. It was followed by a bigger wave mainly from local transmissions reported in 6387 cases on March 8. It caused the government to impose a lockdown on 8 March to the whole country as a way to suppress the pandemic. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the lockdown and awareness dynamics on infection in Italy over the period of January 31 to July 17 and how the impact varies across different lockdown scenarios in both periods before and after implementation of the lockdown policy. The findings SEIR reveal that implementation lockdown has minimised the social distancing flattening the curve. The infections associated with COVID-19 decreases with quarantine initially then easing lockdown will not cause further increasing transmission until a certain period which is explained by public high awareness. Completely removing lockdown may lead to sharp transmission second wave. Policy implementation and limitation of the study were evaluated at the end of the paper. Keywords COVID-19 - Lockdown - Epidemic model - SEIR - Awareness - Dynamical systems.

PLANNING AND CONTROL IN THE 19th CENTURY ICE TRADE

1984 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda H. Kistler ◽  
Clairmont P. Carter ◽  
Brackston Hinchey
Keyword(s):  
New England ◽  
19Th Century ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Transportation Costs ◽  
Planning And Control ◽  
Geographically Dispersed ◽  
The World ◽  
And Control ◽  
The 19Th Century ◽  
The Impact

This paper describes selected accounting records of the Tudor Ice Company which were devised to manage and control the far-flung business activities of Frederic Tudor, a 19th century entrepreneur who has been called America's first monopolist. Tudor's business genius lay in developing methods of harvesting, transporting, storing, and marketing commercial quantities of ice taken from New England ponds and shipped to tropical ports around the world. Frederic Tudor employed relatively sophisticated accounting techniques to analyze and control transportation costs and the costs of product shrinkage. He also routinely analyzed and translated foreign currency transactions for his geographically dispersed operations and evaluated the impact of competition on his operations.

The impact of COVID-19 on the Chinese tourism industry

2021 ◽  
pp. 135481662110412
Author(s):  
Can Wang ◽  
Xianming Meng ◽  
Mahinda Siriwardana ◽  
Tien Pham
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Control Policy ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
The World ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the world hard, costing more than three and half million lives. Governments around the globe are not in a consensus position on the most appropriate response to the pandemic. This study utilizes an economic model to assess choices and compare outcome of public health policies using China as a case study. A lax policy could have costed the country up to 97% of inbound tourism revenue; reduced real gross domestic product by 11% and decreased employment by 15%. Analysis shows that the appropriate prevention and control policy of the Chinese Government have mitigated the impact of COVID-19 significantly for both tourism and non-tourism sectors. Importantly, the article highlights that the substantial negative impact on investment in tourism will slow down the sector’s recovery. The article calls for strong tourism-focused response policies for a speedy recovery.

scholarly journals COVID- 19 PANDEMIC IMPACT ON FREE ZONES

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (12) ◽  
pp. 65
Author(s):  
Sandra Ezmale
Keyword(s):  
Economic Structure ◽  
Document Analysis ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Free Zone ◽  
The World ◽  
Economic Zones ◽  
The Impact

COVID-19 pandemic has an impact on global economic activity, but the negative effects vary from country to country. The key factors determining the depth of the impact are the economic situation at the beginning of 2020, the features of the economic structure and the fiscal capacity of governments to help citizens, businesses and the economy as a whole. Free zones and special economic zones are historically perceived as places that, to some extent, protect investors from unpredictability and act as places where the weak business environment is mitigated. The article investigates the impact of pandemic COVID - 19 on the world's economic situation and free zones, as well as free zones forecasts on the economic recovery. The objective of the article – to analyse the impact of pandemic COVID-19 on the world free zones performance and global economic situation. Within the framework of the study has been characterised the impact of pandemic COVID - 19 on the world's economic situation, described the extent and nature of the COVID- 19 pandemic impacts on performance in the Free Zones, as well as has been described the impact of pandemic COVID 19 on the operation of free-zone enterprises in Latvia by analysing the example of Rezekne's special economic zone.The descriptive methods, document analysis, comparative analysis was used in the study, survey.

On fluctuating characteristics of global COVID-19 cases and identification of inflection points

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Feng ◽  
Hanshui Zhang ◽  
Yue Zhang ◽  
Liming Sun ◽  
Jiapei Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Inflection Points ◽  
The World ◽  
Rate Of Decline ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tremendous Impact

PurposeThe emergence of a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has had a tremendous impact on the world, and the characteristics of its evolution need to be better understood.Design/methodology/approachTo explore the changes of cases and control them effectively, this paper analyzes and models the fluctuation and dynamic characteristics of the daily growth rate based on the data of newly confirmed cases around the world. Based on the data, the authors identify the inflection points and analyze the causes of the new daily confirmed cases and deaths worldwide.FindingsThe study found that the growth sequence of the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day has a significant cluster of fluctuations. The impact of previous fluctuations in the future is gradually attenuated and shows a relatively gentle long-term downward trend. There are four inflection points in the global time series of new confirmed cases and the number of deaths per day. And these inflection points show the state of an accelerated rise, a slowdown in the rate of decline, a slowdown in the rate of growth and an accelerated decline in turn.Originality/valueThis paper has a certain guiding and innovative significance for the dynamic research of COVID-19 cases in the world.

scholarly journals Arboviruses emerging in Brazil: challenges for clinic and implications for public health

2017 ◽  
Vol 51 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Rita Donalisio ◽  
André Ricardo Ribas Freitas ◽  
Andrea Paula Bruno Von Zuben
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
Genetic Changes ◽  
Effective Prevention ◽  
Vector Population ◽  
The World ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Parts ◽  
Immunological Alterations

ABSTRACT Arboviruses have been emerging in different parts of the world due to genetic changes in the virus, alteration of the host and vector population dynamics, or because of anthropogenic environmental factors. These viruses’ capacity for adaptation is notable, as well as the likelihood of their emergence and establishment in new geographic areas. In Brazilian epidemiologic scenario, the most common arboviruses are DENV, CHIKV, and ZIKV, although others may spread in the country. Little is yet known of the impact of viral co-circulation, which would theoretically result in more intense viremia or other immunological alterations that could trigger autoimmune diseases, such as Guillain-Barré syndrome. The impact on morbidity and mortality intensifies as extensive epidemics lead to a high number of affected individuals, severe cases, and implications for health services, mainly due to the absence of treatment, vaccines, and effective prevention and control measures.

scholarly journals Dissecting the determinants of malaria chronicity: why within-host models struggle to reproduce infection dynamics

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (104) ◽  
pp. 20141379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren M. Childs ◽  
Caroline O. Buckee
Keyword(s):  
Host Immune System ◽  
Chronic Infections ◽  
Malaria Epidemiology ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
Duration Of Infection ◽  
Severe Infections ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Do So ◽  
Parasite Dynamics

The duration of infection is fundamental to the epidemiological behaviour of any infectious disease, but remains one of the most poorly understood aspects of malaria. In endemic areas, the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum can cause both acute, severe infections and asymptomatic, chronic infections through its interaction with the host immune system. Frequent superinfection and massive parasite genetic diversity make it extremely difficult to accurately measure the distribution of infection lengths, complicating the estimation of basic epidemiological parameters and the prediction of the impact of interventions. Mathematical models have qualitatively reproduced parasite dynamics early during infection, but reproducing long-lived chronic infections remains much more challenging. Here, we construct a model of infection dynamics to examine the consequences of common biological assumptions for the generation of chronicity and the impact of co-infection. We find that although a combination of host and parasite heterogeneities are capable of generating chronic infections, they do so only under restricted parameter choices. Furthermore, under biologically plausible assumptions, co-infection of parasite genotypes can alter the course of infection of both the resident and co-infecting strain in complex non-intuitive ways. We outline the most important puzzles for within-host models of malaria arising from our analysis, and their implications for malaria epidemiology and control.

scholarly journals Lifting mobility restrictions and the induced short-term dynamics of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Santana-Cibrian ◽  
Manuel A. Acuna-Zegarra ◽  
Jorge X. Velasco-Hernandez
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
High Mobility ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Effective Contact ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
The World ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

SARS-CoV-2 has now infected 15 million people and produced more than six hundred thousand deaths around the world. Due to high transmission levels, many governments implemented social-distancing measures and confinement with different levels of required compliance to mitigate the COVID-19 epidemic. In several countries, these measures were effective, and it was possible to flatten the epidemic curve and control it. In others, this objective was not or has not been achieved. In far to many cities around the world rebounds of the epidemic are occurring or, in others, plateau-like states have appeared where high incidence rates remain constant for relatively long periods of time. Nonetheless, faced with the challenge of urgent social need to reactivate their economies, many countries have decided to lift mitigation measures at times of high incidence. In this paper, we use a mathematical model to characterize the impact of short duration transmission events within the confinement period previous but close to the epidemic peak. The model describes too, the possible consequences on the disease dynamics after mitigation measures are lifted. We use Mexico City as a case study. The results show that events of high mobility may produce either a later higher peak, a long plateau with relatively constant but high incidence or the same peak as in the original baseline epidemic curve, but with a post-peak interval of slower decay. Finally, we also show the importance of carefully timing the lifting of mitigation measures. If this occurs during a period of high incidence, then the disease transmission will rapidly increase, unless the effective contact rate keeps decreasing, which will be very difficult to achieve once the population is released.

scholarly journals Policy and Law Assessment of COVID-19 Based on Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Jieqi Lei ◽  
Xuyuan Wang ◽  
Yiming Zhang ◽  
Lian Zhu ◽  
Lin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Star Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Transition Points ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Smooth Transition Autoregressive

As of the end of October 2020, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 has exceeded 45 million and the cumulative number of deaths has exceeded 1.1 million all over the world. Faced with the fatal pandemic, countries around the world have taken various prevention and control measures. One of the important issues in epidemic prevention and control is the assessment of the prevention and control effectiveness. Changes in the time series of daily new confirmed cases can reflect the impact of policies in certain regions. In this paper, a smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model is applied to investigate the intrinsic changes during the epidemic in certain countries and regions. In order to quantitatively evaluate the influence of the epidemic control measures, the sequence is fitted to the STAR model; then, comparisons between the dates of transition points and those of releasing certain policies are applied. Our model well fits the data. Moreover, the nonlinear smooth function within the STAR model reveals that the implementation of prevention and control policies is effective in some regions with different speeds. However, the ineffectiveness is also revealed and the threat of a second wave had already emerged.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 infodemic on psychological wellbeing and vaccine hesitancy

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Janmejaya Samal
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Psychological Wellbeing ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Main Body ◽  
Vaccine Acceptance ◽  
The World ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background With COVID-19 pandemic, the world has witnessed a scenario that is unique compared to any other such pandemic that the world has grappled with. This is primarily owing to the parallel infodemic that the population faced with disinformation and misinformation explosion in several platforms that an individual can access. Main body The myriad of information that everyone in the world received acted as double-edged sword as some information helped individuals in allying the anxiety and stigma and motivated them for appropriate COVID-19 behavior; however, on the other hand, the same acted opposite and created a whole lot of negative problems in the community. The misinformation regarding the disease is not only limited to what has happened so far in the realm of prevention and control rather the same is also plaguing the efforts towards effective vaccine uptake. Conclusion With the technological and media advancement, it is getting difficult to ward off every misinformation that is getting received at individual end which is obviously detrimental in the efforts toward effective vaccine acceptance; however, measures need to be taken at appropriate level to curb this menace of infodemic to relax the world from the clutch of this pandemic. This article looks at the impact of the misinformation and disinformation on psychological wellbeing and vaccine acceptance and suggests remedial measures.

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