scholarly journals A Continuous Bayesian Model for the Stimulation COVID-19 Epidemic Dynamics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaobin Xu ◽  
Hongmei Zhang ◽  
Yonggang Niu
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Population Group ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Simple Derivation ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Contact Frequency ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Individual Contact

It is of great theoretical and application value to accurately forecast the spreading dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic. We first proposed and established a Bayesian model to predict the epidemic spreading behavior. In this model, the infection probability matrix is estimated according to the individual contact frequency in certain population group. This infection probability matrix is highly correlated with population geographic distribution, population age structure and so on. This model can effectively avoid the prediction malfunction by using the traditional ordinary differential equation methods such as SIR (susceptible, infectious and recovered) model and so on. Meanwhile, it would forecast the epidemic distribution and predict the epidemic hot spots geographically at different time. According to the results revealed by Bayesian model, the effect of population geographical distribution should be considered in the prediction of epidemic situation, and there is no simple derivation relationship between the threshold of group immunity and the virus reproduction numberR0. If we further consider the virus mutation effect and the antibody attenuation effect, with a large global population spatial distribution, it will be difficult for us to eliminate Covid-19 in a short time even with vaccination endeavor. Covid-19 may exist in human society for a long time, and the epidemic caused by re-infection is characterized by a wild-geometric && low- probability distribution with no epidemic hotspots.

Universal Social Culture

1994 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-24
Author(s):  
Muhammad Al Ghazali
Keyword(s):  
Natural Order ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Social Culture ◽  
Philosophy Of Life ◽  
Empirical Survey ◽  
Islamic Thought ◽  
The Individual

Shah Wali Allah's (1703-63) ideas and profound intellectual legacycontinue to atrract scholastic interest. Despite many works on his legacy,significant facets remain unknown. As his futuristic ideas hold great promisefor modem and future Islamic thought, his works should be analyzed.We will focus on one such idea: his synthesis of reason, revelation,and empiricism. Building on evidence from an inductive survey of socialphenomena to support the claims of revelation and staying within thedoctrinal framework of revealed guidance, he constructs a universal socialcultute paradigm and says that all Qur'anic injunctions and instructionsof the Prophet are compatible with the demands of human nature.His view of the individual and human society is an integral facet ofhis philosophy of life and is one of the most original parts of his legacy.He sees life as a display of the grand divine scheme in natural order andSocial organization. Although his exposition of humanity's social developmentseems to be in the nature of a humanist and sometimes assumes theform of an empirical survey, his final conclusions confirm the fundamentalpostulates of religion. Some modem exponents of his social doctrinessuggest that his ideas are not original and say that he might havetaken them from Ibn Sin$ or Ibn Khaldiin. However, a totalist view ofhis framework of thought shows that this is an unwamted assertion ...

ADHD with Comorbid Bipolar Disorders: A Systematic Review of Neurobiological, Clinical and Pharmacological Aspects Across the Lifespan

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (38) ◽  
pp. 6942-6969 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Mucci ◽  
Maria Teresa Avella ◽  
Donatella Marazziti
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Features ◽  
Adult Adhd ◽  
Neurodevelopmental Disorder ◽  
Bipolar Disorders ◽  
Mood Stabilizers ◽  
Disruptive Behaviour ◽  
Single Individual ◽  
Pharmacological Management ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Individual

Background: Attention deficit hyperactivity (ADHD) disorder is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by inattention, hyperactivity, disruptive behaviour, and impulsivity. Despite considered typical of children for a long time, the persistence of ADHD symptoms in adulthood gained increasing interest during the last decades. Indeed, its diagnosis, albeit controversial, is rarely carried out even because ADHD is often comorbid with several other psychiatric diosrders, in particular with bipolar disorders (BDs), a condition that complicates the clinical picture, assessment and treatment. Aims: The aim of this paper was to systematically review the scientific literature on the neurobiological, clinical features and current pharmacological management of ADHD comorbid with BDs across the entire lifespan, with a major focus on the adulthood. Discussion: The pharmacology of ADHD-BD in adults is still empirical and influenced by the individual experience of the clinicians. Stimulants are endowed of a prompt efficacy and safety, whilst non-stimulants are useful when a substance abuse history is detected, although they require some weeks in order to be fully effective. In any case, an in-depth diagnostic and clinical evaluation of the single individual is mandatory. Conclusions: The comorbidity of ADHD with BD is still a controversial matter, as it is the notion of adult ADHD as a distinct nosological category. Indeed, some findings highlighted the presence of common neurobiological mechanisms and overlapping clinical features, although disagreement does exist. In any case, while expecting to disentangle this crucial question, a correct management of this comorbidity is essential, which requires the co-administration of mood stabilizers. Further controlled clinical studies in large samples of adult ADHD-BD patients appear extremely urgent in order to better define possible therapeutic guidelines, as well as alternative approaches for this potentially invalidating condition.

The Influence of Environmental Factors on Daily Behaviour

1982 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 1175-1193 ◽  
Author(s):  
R Herz
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Physical Environment ◽  
Town Planning ◽  
Target Groups ◽  
Subjective Perceptions ◽  
Demand Models ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Observed Behaviour ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Transport Mobility

The question of the extent to which the concrete physical environment allows, causes, or even forces certain forms of behaviour to occur has been excluded from social sciences literature for a long time. More recent studies from environmental psychology show that the built environment, filtered by subjective perceptions, very probably influences the experience and actions of individuals. Town planning and transport planning is orientated towards the needs, demands, or simply the observed behaviour of social groups, segments of the population, and target groups of individuals. However, at this level the evidence about whether a spatiospecific determinant should be added to the sociodemographic, sociocultural, or socioeconomic determinants is very inconclusive. This paper investigates the influence of certain types of area on behaviour, and uses about 70000 weekday records at the level of differentiated groups of people. Everyday behaviour of the groups is quantified by their time budgets and daily programmes with broad groupings of out-of-house activities as well as various indicators of transport mobility. This study shows that with given characteristics of the individual and his household a series of behavioural parameters does not vary in space and thus these parameters can be used as input for behaviourally orientated transport demand models and transferred from one planning area to another.

scholarly journals Can Financial Engineering Cure Cancer?

2013 ◽  
Vol 103 (3) ◽  
pp. 406-411 ◽  
Author(s):  
David E Fagnan ◽  
Jose Maria Fernandez ◽  
Andrew W Lo ◽  
Roger M Stein
Keyword(s):  
Financial Engineering ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Debt Financing ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Public Equity ◽  
Highly Correlated

Traditional financing sources such as private and public equity may not be ideal for investment projects with low probabilities of success, long time horizons, and large capital requirements. Nevertheless, such projects, if not too highly correlated, may yield attractive risk-adjusted returns when combined into a single portfolio. Such “megafund” portfolios may be too large to finance through private or public equity alone. But with sufficient diversification and risk analytics, debt financing via securitization may be feasible. Credit enhancements (i.e., derivatives and government guarantees) can also improve megafund economics. We present an analytical framework and illustrative empirical examples involving cancer research.

LONG‐TIME RESPONSE PREDICTED BY EXACT ELASTIC RAY THEORY

Geophysics ◽  
1965 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 363-368 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. W. Spencer
Keyword(s):  
Formal Solution ◽  
Intermediate Stage ◽  
Time Limit ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Individual Response ◽  
Axially Symmetric ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Significant Figures

The formal solution for an axially symmetric radiation field in a multilayered, elastic system can be expanded in an infinite series. Each term in the series is associated with a particular raypath. It is shown that in the long‐time limit the individual response functions produced by a step input in particle velocity are given by polynomials in odd powers of the time. For rays which suffer m reflections, the degree of the polynomials is 2m+1. The total response is obtained by summing all rays which contribute in a specified time interval. When the rays are selected indiscriminately, the difference between the magnitude of the partial sum at an intermediate stage of computation and the magnitude of the correct total sum may be greater than the number of significant figures carried by the computer. A prescription is stated for arranging the rays into groups. Each group response function varies linearly in the long‐time limit and goes to zero when convolved with a physically realizable source function.

Neurotechnology as a factor of the educational process transformation

2021 ◽  
pp. 98-13
Author(s):  
Л.Д. Александрова ◽  
Р.А. Богачева ◽  
Т.А. Чекалина ◽  
М.В. Максимова ◽  
В.И. Тимонина
Keyword(s):  
Effective Means ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Educational Process ◽  
Special Equipment ◽  
Research Areas ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Mental Abilities ◽  
The Individual ◽  
And Control

Изучение возможностей мозга для повышения качества обучения находится в центре внимания педагогической науки уже много лет. Развитие цифровизации позволило использовать в исследованиях специальное оборудование, с помощью которого можно оценивать и контролировать работу мозга, развивать умственные способности, познавательные функции и т. п. Нейротехнологии стали эффективным средством, позволяющим трансформировать образовательный процесс за счет подбора специального учебного контента с учетом индивидуальных особенностей обучающихся. Вместе с тем возникает необходимость в конкретизации терминологии и определении актуальных направлений исследований в данной области. For a long time, the study of the brain capabilities for the improvement of the quality of education has been an urgent direction in pedagogical science. Due to the development of digitalization, new areas of research have emerged related to the use of special equipment that makes it possible to assess and control brainwork, develop mental abilities, cognitive functions, etc. One of them is neurotechnology, which is an effective means of transforming the educational process: it offers educational content based on the individual characteristics of students. Thus, a need to concretize the terminology and determine the current research areas arises. The article aims to attempt to fill this gap with the help of a representative analysis of publications on neurotechnologies, as well as the essence of neuroeducation.

Elemental content of mast cell granules measured by X-ray microanalysis of rat thymic tissue sections

1986 ◽  
Vol 83 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.D. Kendall ◽  
A. Warley
Keyword(s):  
Mast Cell ◽  
Mast Cells ◽  
Elemental Content ◽  
Thymic Tissue ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Tissue Sections ◽  
Freeze Dried ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
The Individual

Mast cell granules were examined by fully quantitative X-ray microanalysis of 20 cells in freeze-dried cryosections. The mast cells were situated mainly in the connective tissue of the thymic capsule of five adult male Carworth Sprague Europe rats. In addition 30 red blood cells were analysed from the same sections. Nineteen of the mast cells had granules rich in S and K. One cell had smaller granules, and in this cell the granules contained high [Ca] and [P] instead of high [S] and [K]. In the majority of cells (13) the S:K ratio was highly correlated and less than 2.2, whereas in the remaining six cells the individual granule ratios were very variable in any one cell and much higher. The mean granule [K] (994 +/− 57 mmol kg-1 dry wt) was about four times the mean cytoplasmic level of 227 +/− 81 mmol kg-1 dry wt. The existence of this difference in concentration between the granules and the cytoplasm suggests that the K in the granules must be bound. The relationship between the [K] and [S] is discussed with regard to the possible binding of heparin and amines in the granules.

scholarly journals Sustainable Geometric and Bio-Cultural/Cultural Models of Human Society: The Role of Non-Capitalist Cooperation in Times of Civilizational/Environmental Crisis

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
M. S. Sthel ◽  
J. G. R. Tostes ◽  
J. R. Tavares
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Footprint ◽  
Cultural Models ◽  
Total Carbon ◽  
Environmental Crisis ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Capitalist System ◽  
Equilateral Triangles ◽  
Footprint Area ◽  
The Individual

The Sustainable Complex Triangular Cells (SCTC) and bio-cultural/cultural models of human society are employed here. Regarding SCTC model, the cell areas represent the individual´s carbon footprint. Scalene triangles represent each individual in the present competitive standard (inward arrows). Equilateral triangles (outward arrows) are “summed” so as forming cooperative-hexagonal bodies leading to a collaborative model of society, reducing the total carbon footprint area as regard the formal analogous sum of each individual (inward) non-cooperative triangle. We particularly have focused on environmental global limits of the capitalist system, with SCTC modeling an accelerated global anti-ecological “scalenization” process from the 29 crisis to the present neoliberal stage of capitalism. Employing again the SCTC model, we describe and exemplify instable and short lifetime “islands” built up through evanescent local process of “cooperative equilateralization” (outward arrows) in the last 40 years. Such non-capitalist features were “mixed in” with competitive “scalenized” features of the capitalist “ocean”. In the final topic, we will consider bio-cultural (Nowak and Wilson) models of the human history and a cultural (Weber-Alberoni) model for great inflexions in the western history. All these models intersect via human cooperation. Particularly, that last model is complementary to the above small and instable “islands” sketch: but now we deal with western religious and secular, non- capitalist, purely cooperative experiences, which correspond to the above labeled SCTC “cooperative equilateralization”. Such weber-alberonian “islands” may be – some few times - sufficiently stable for rapid and great expansions leading, e.g., to a “civilizational/environmental jump” in the presently menaced planet.

Expressions for the effective diffusivity in materials with interphase boundaries

2004 ◽  
Vol 819 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina V. Belova ◽  
Graeme E. Murch
Keyword(s):  
Polycrystalline Material ◽  
Effective Diffusivity ◽  
Poor Agreement ◽  
Two Phase ◽  
Interphase Boundaries ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Individual Grains ◽  
Good Agreement

AbstractWe address the problem of calculating the long-time-limit effective diffusivity in stable two- phase polycrystalline material. A phenomenological model is used where the high diffusivity interphase boundaries are treated as connected “coatings” of the individual grains. Derivation of expressions for the effective diffusivity with segregation is made along Maxwell lines. Monte Carlo simulation using lattice-based random walks is used to test the validity of the expressions. It is shown that for the case analysed the derived expressions for the effective diffusivity are in very good agreement with simulation results. The equivalent of the Hart equation is also derived. It is shown to be in poor agreement with simulation results.

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