scholarly journals Improved prediction of behavioral and neural similarity spaces using pruned DNNs

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Homa Priya Tarigopula ◽  
Scott Laurence Fairhall ◽  
Uri Hasson

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have become an important tool for modeling brain and behaviour. One key area of interest has been to apply these networks to model human similarity judgements. Several previous works have used the embeddings from the penultimate layer of vision DNNs and showed that a reweighting of these features improves the fit between human similarity judgments and DNNs. These studies underline the idea that these embeddings form a good basis set but lack the correct level of salience. Here we re-examined the grounds for this idea and on the contrary, we hypothesized that these embeddings, beyond forming a good basis set, also have the correct level of salience to account for similarity judgments. It is just that the huge dimensional embedding needs to be pruned to select those features relevant for the considered domain for which a similarity space is modeled. In Study 1 we supervised DNN pruning based on a subset of human similarity judgments. We found that pruning: i) improved out-of-sample prediction of human similarity judgments from DNN embeddings, ii) produced better alignment with WordNet hierarchy, and iii) retained much higher classification accuracy than reweighting. Study 2 showed that pruning by neurobiological data is highly effective in improving out-of-sample prediction of brain-derived representational dissimilarity matrices from DNN embeddings, at times fleshing out isomorphisms not otherwise observable. Pruning supervised by human brain/behavior therefore effectively identifies alignable dimensions of semantic knowledge between DNNs and humans and constitutes an effective method for understanding the organization of knowledge in neural networks.

Author(s):  
Renzhe Xu ◽  
Yudong Chen ◽  
Tenglong Xiao ◽  
Jingli Wang ◽  
Xiong Wang

As an important tool to measure the current situation of the whole stock market, the stock index has always been the focus of researchers, especially for its prediction. This paper uses trend types, which are received by clustering price series under multiple time scale, combined with the day-of-the-week effect to construct a categorical feature combination. Based on the historical data of six kinds of Chinese stock indexes, the CatBoost model is used for training and predicting. Experimental results show that the out-of-sample prediction accuracy is 0.55, and the long–short trading strategy can obtain average annualized return of 34.43%, which is a great improvement compared with other classical classification algorithms. Under the rolling back-testing, the model can always obtain stable returns in each period of time from 2012 to 2020. Among them, the SSESC’s long–short strategy has the best performance with an annualized return of 40.85% and a sharp ratio of 1.53. Therefore, the trend information on multiple time-scale features based on feature engineering can be learned by the CatBoost model well, which has a guiding effect on predicting stock index trends.


2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 208-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurits Kaptein

Purpose This paper aims to examine whether estimates of psychological traits obtained using meta-judgmental measures (as commonly present in customer relationship management database systems) or operative measures are most useful in predicting customer behavior. Design/methodology/approach Using an online experiment (N = 283), the study collects meta-judgmental and operative measures of customers. Subsequently, it compares the out-of-sample prediction error of responses to persuasive messages. Findings The study shows that operative measures – derived directly from measures of customer behavior – are more informative than meta-judgmental measures. Practical implications Using interactive media, it is possible to actively elicit operative measures. This study shows that practitioners seeking to customize their marketing communication should focus on obtaining such psychographic observations. Originality/value While currently both meta-judgmental measures and operative measures are used for customization in interactive marketing, this study directly compares their utility for the prediction of future responses to persuasive messages.


Author(s):  
Fabio Nonino

Extracting and consolidating knowledge from past projects can help managers in selecting projects with the correct level of riskiness, while market analysis gives directions for reaching the objective of a balanced project portfolio. To this extent, the chapter discusses strategic importance of project selection and the role of risks and uncertainties in project portfolio management and presents some fundamental and innovative frameworks and project selection methodologies for balancing risks. Finally, the chapter proposes a model containing an innovative methodology, based on artificial neural networks, to help managers in balancing project portfolio and assessing projects during the selection phase on the basis of risks, uncertainties and critical success factors.


Author(s):  
Salim Lahmiri

This paper compares the accuracy of three hybrid intelligent systems in forecasting ten international stock market indices; namely the CAC40, DAX, FTSE, Hang Seng, KOSPI, NASDAQ, NIKKEI, S&P500, Taiwan stock market price index, and the Canadian TSE. In particular, genetic algorithms (GA) are used to optimize the topology and parameters of the adaptive time delay neural networks (ATNN) and the time delay neural networks (TDNN). The third intelligent system is the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) that basically integrates fuzzy logic into the artificial neural network (ANN) to better model information and explain decision making process. Based on out-of-sample simulation results, it was found that contrary to the literature GA-TDNN significantly outperforms GA-ATDNN. In addition, ANFIS was found to be more effective in forecasting CAC40, FTSE, Hang Seng, NIKKEI, Taiwan, and TSE price level. In contrary, GA-TDNN and GA-ATDNN were found to be superior to ANFIS in predicting DAX, KOSPI, and NASDAQ future prices.


2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han Zhang ◽  
Jennifer Pan

Protest event analysis is an important method for the study of collective action and social movements and typically draws on traditional media reports as the data source. We introduce collective action from social media (CASM)—a system that uses convolutional neural networks on image data and recurrent neural networks with long short-term memory on text data in a two-stage classifier to identify social media posts about offline collective action. We implement CASM on Chinese social media data and identify more than 100,000 collective action events from 2010 to 2017 (CASM-China). We evaluate the performance of CASM through cross-validation, out-of-sample validation, and comparisons with other protest data sets. We assess the effect of online censorship and find it does not substantially limit our identification of events. Compared to other protest data sets, CASM-China identifies relatively more rural, land-related protests and relatively few collective action events related to ethnic and religious conflict.


Author(s):  
David Easley ◽  
Marcos López de Prado ◽  
Maureen O’Hara ◽  
Zhibai Zhang

Abstract Understanding modern market microstructure phenomena requires large amounts of data and advanced mathematical tools. We demonstrate how machine learning can be applied to microstructural research. We find that microstructure measures continue to provide insights into the price process in current complex markets. Some microstructure features with high explanatory power exhibit low predictive power, while others with less explanatory power have more predictive power. We find that some microstructure-based measures are useful for out-of-sample prediction of various market statistics, leading to questions about market efficiency. We also show how microstructure measures can have important cross-asset effects. Our results are derived using 87 liquid futures contracts across all asset classes.


2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 390-411 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Liu ◽  
David Pitt

AbstractIn this paper we analyse insurance claim frequency data using the bivariate negative binomial regression (BNBR) model. We use general insurance data on claims from simple third-party liability insurance and comprehensive insurance. We find that bivariate regression, with its capacity for modelling correlation between the two observed claim counts, provides both a superior fit and out-of-sample prediction compared with the more common practice of fitting univariate negative binomial regression models separately to each claim type. Noting the complexity of BNBR models and their potential for a large number of parameters, we explore the use of model shrinkage methodology, namely the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) and ridge regression. We find that models estimated using shrinkage methods outperform the ordinary likelihood-based models when being used to make predictions out-of-sample. We find that the Lasso performs better than ridge regression as a method of shrinkage.


1992 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 163-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alicia N. Rambaldi ◽  
Hector O. Zapata ◽  
Ralph D. Christy

AbstractA credit scoring function incorporating statistical selection criteria was proposed to evaluate the credit worthiness of agricultural cooperative loans in the Fifth Farm Credit District. In-sample (1981-1986) and out-of-sample (1988) prediction performance of the selected models were evaluated using rank transformation discriminant analysis, logit, and probit. Results indicate superior out-of-sample performance for the management oriented approach relative to classification of unacceptable loans, and poor performance of the rank transformation in out-of-sample prediction.


2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (5) ◽  
pp. 481-485 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Bajari ◽  
Denis Nekipelov ◽  
Stephen P. Ryan ◽  
Miaoyu Yang

We survey and apply several techniques from the statistical and computer science literature to the problem of demand estimation. To improve out-of-sample prediction accuracy, we propose a method of combining the underlying models via linear regression. Our method is robust to a large number of regressors; scales easily to very large data sets; combines model selection and estimation; and can flexibly approximate arbitrary non-linear functions. We illustrate our method using a standard scanner panel data set and find that our estimates are considerably more accurate in out-of-sample predictions of demand than some commonly used alternatives.


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