scholarly journals Can a vaccine-led approach end the NSW outbreak in 100 days, or at least substantially reduce morbidity and mortality?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laxman Bablani ◽  
Tim Wilson ◽  
Hassan Andrabi ◽  
Vijaya Sundararajan ◽  
Driss Ait Oukarim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New South ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Original Plan ◽  
Time Required ◽  
Business As Usual

Abstract Background and Aims The New South Wales (NSW) COVID-19 outbreak is at 478 daily cases on August 16, 2021. Our aims were to: 1) estimate the time required to reach ≤5 cases per day under three lockdown strengths (weak, moderate, strong), and four vaccination rollouts: (a) per the original plan, (b) prioritizing essential workers, (c) b plus rapid vaccination of 25% of <60-year-olds with AstraZeneca (AZ25), and (d) b plus rapid vaccination of 50% of <60-year-olds with AstraZeneca (AZ50). 2) estimate the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the 100 days after 1/August for the 12 scenarios. Methods An agent-based model was adapted to NSW and the Delta variant. Hospitalization and mortality rates for unvaccinated COVID-19 infections were doubled given the virulence of Delta. Results The business-as-usual rollout fully vaccinates 50%, 70% and 80% of >16-year-olds by 10/Oct, 21/Nov, and 28/Dec, respectively. This reduced to 1/Oct, 30/Oct, and 22/Nov for the fastest (AZ50) rollout. A strong lockdown with a rapid vaccine rollout was the fastest to reach ≤5 cases (14-day average), with a median of 78 days (90% Uncertainty interval 61 - 103) or 18/Oct, compared to 207 days (166 - 254) or 24/Feb for a weak lockdown with no rollout acceleration. Increased lockdown strength had more impact than rollout acceleration. Under the AZ25 vaccination scenario, there were 1,440 (90% UI 262 - 10,600 deaths in the first 100 days of cases under a weak lockdown, compared to 71 (90% UI 26 - 178) under a strong lockdown scenario. Conclusion NSW will likely achieve 70% vaccination of >16-year-olds before reaching ≤5 daily cases. Accelerating the vaccine rollout is important for the medium-term, but in the short-term increased restriction strength was more effective at reducing caseload (and subsequently mortality and hospitalisation) than accelerating the vaccine rollout.

Convict Transportation to New South Wales, 1787-1849: Mortality Rates Reconsidered

2017 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-86
Author(s):  
Gary L. Sturgess ◽  
Sara Rahman ◽  
George Argyrous
Keyword(s):  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Convict Transportation

Hydrograph recession characteristics of some small agricultural catchments

Soil Research ◽  
1985 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 373 ◽  
Author(s):  
WC Boughton ◽  
DM Freebairn
Keyword(s):  
Flow Rate ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Surface Soil ◽  
New South ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Unit Hydrograph ◽  
Agricultural Catchments ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Catchment Size ◽  
Time Required

Five-min recession constants were calculated for surface runoff and interflow using hydrographs of runoff from five 1-ha catchments at Greenmount near Toowoomba in south-east Queensland. The recession constants were converted to half-flow periods, i.e. the time required for flow rate to halve during an exponential recession. The half-flow periods of surface runoff and interflow on the 1 ha catchment are compared with published data from catchments of much larger size in New South Wales, and it is shown that the ratio of interflow half-flow period to surface runoff half-flow period does not vary much over six orders of magnitude of catchment size. Calculations of maximum rates of interflow and volumes of interflow storage show that both rates and volumes are possible in the plough depth of surface soil. The results support the evidence of interflow obtained earlier in unit hydrograph studies of runoff on these same catchments.

scholarly journals Short-Term Spatio-Temporal Drought Forecasting Using Random Forests Model at New South Wales, Australia

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhirup Dikshit ◽  
Biswajeet Pradhan ◽  
Abdullah M. Alamri
Keyword(s):  
Random Forest ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Drought Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Drought Classes ◽  
Statistical Metrics

Droughts can cause significant damage to agriculture and water resources, leading to severe economic losses and loss of life. One of the most important aspect is to develop effective tools to forecast drought events that could be helpful in mitigation strategies. The understanding of droughts has become more challenging because of the effect of climate change, urbanization and water management; therefore, the present study aims to forecast droughts by determining an appropriate index and analyzing its changes, using climate variables. The work was conducted in three different phases, first being the determination of Standard Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), using global climatic dataset of Climate Research Unit (CRU) from 1901–2018. The indices are calculated at different monthly intervals which could depict short-term or long-term changes, and the index value represents different drought classes, ranging from extremely dry to extremely wet. However, the present study was focused only on forecasting at short-term scales for New South Wales (NSW) region of Australia and was conducted at two different time scales, one month and three months. The second phase involved dividing the data into three sample sizes, training (1901–2010), testing (2011–2015) and validation (2016–2018). Finally, a machine learning approach, Random Forest (RF), was used to train and test the data, using various climatic variables, e.g., rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, cloud cover, vapor pressure and temperature (maximum, minimum and mean). The final phase was to analyze the performance of the model based on statistical metrics and drought classes. Regarding this, the performance of the testing period was conducted by using statistical metrics, Coefficient of Determination (R2) and Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) method. The performance of the model showed a considerably higher value of R2 for both the time scales. However, statistical metrics analyzes the variation between the predicted and observed index values, and it does not consider the drought classes. Therefore, the variation in predicted and observed SPEI values were analyzed based on different drought classes, which were validated by using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC)-based Area under the Curve (AUC) approach. The results reveal that the classification of drought classes during the validation period had an AUC of 0.82 for SPEI 1 case and 0.84 for SPEI 3 case. The study depicts that the Random Forest model can perform both regression and classification analysis for drought studies in NSW. The work also suggests that the performance of any model for drought forecasting should not be limited only through statistical metrics, but also by examining the variation in terms of drought characteristics.

Aversive behaviour by koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) during the course of a music festival in northern New South Wales, Australia

2016 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Phillips
Keyword(s):  
Home Range ◽  
New South ◽  
Monitoring Program ◽  
Home Ranges ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Specific Stimulus ◽  
Phascolarctos Cinereus ◽  
Music Festival ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Core Areas

The effects of short-term disturbances that result in changes to movement patterns and/or behaviour of wildlife are poorly understood. In this study the movements of seven koalas were monitored before, during and after a five-day music festival. During the monitoring program koalas occupied home-range areas of 0.6–13 ha with one or more core areas of activity. Aversive behaviour in the form of evacuation of known ranging areas was demonstrated by three koalas that had core areas within 525 m of the approximate centre of the festival area, the associated responses comprising movements that were perpendicular to and away from staging areas where music was played. Responses contained within known ranging areas were observed in three other koalas whose core areas were located up to 600 m away. The type of response appeared related to the proximity of koala home ranges to music-staging areas, while the maximum distance associated with an aversive response was 725 m. Six of the radio-tracked koalas returned to their home-range areas following the conclusion of festival activities. While the specific stimulus eliciting aversive behaviour was not identified, responses in all instances were initiated during the musical phase of the festival event. The potential for short-term disturbances such as music festivals to significantly influence the ranging patterns of koalas warrants recognition of possible longer-term ecological consequences for planning and management purposes.

With us, not to us Towards policy and program development in partnership with children

2009 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 24-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Vicary ◽  
Mike Clare ◽  
Judy Tennant ◽  
Tine Hoult
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
New South ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Children And Young People ◽  
Advisory Groups ◽  
Rights Of The Child ◽  
South Wales ◽  
United Nations Convention ◽  
Western Australian

Internationally, there is a growing trend for children and young people to participate in decisions affecting their lives (Bellamy 2002; Hart 1997). The active participation of children and young people is clearly articulated in the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (1989). However, despite the international movement towards children's participation, there are precious few opportunities for Australian children and young people to contribute to policy and research debate in a sustainable manner. A review of the literature demonstrates that there are few ongoing research or policy advisory groups made up of children and young people, and those that are operational are generally auspiced by Children's Commissioners (e.g. New South Wales) and policy offices addressing the issues of children and young people.In Western Australia, when children and young people are consulted, the dialogues tend to be short-term and issue-specific in nature. This paper will briefly discuss a number of techniques employed to engage Western Australian children and young people in dialogues about important issues affecting their lives. Using these examples, the barriers that challenge efficacious children's and young people's participation are discussed; finally, some suggested ways forward are delineated.

scholarly journals Mortality rates after surgery in New South Wales

2012 ◽  
Vol 82 (12) ◽  
pp. 871-877 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Harris ◽  
Aman Madan ◽  
Justine Naylor ◽  
Shanley Chong
Keyword(s):  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
South Wales

Do koalas really get the blues? Critique of ‘Aversive behaviour by koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) during the course of a music festival in northern New South Wales, Australia'

2017 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean I. FitzGibbon ◽  
Amber K. Gillett ◽  
Ben J. Barth ◽  
Brendan Taylor ◽  
William A. Ellis
Keyword(s):  
New South ◽  
Behavioural Response ◽  
Ecological Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Music Festival ◽  
Data Analyses ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Unpublished Report ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sound Data

It is imperative that the reported results of scientific studies are based on sound data analyses and unbiased interpretation, especially where they may be used to guide government policy and regulation. A recent paper by Phillips (2016) evaluated the behavioural response of radio-collared koalas to an inaugural large music festival held in 2010 in northern New South Wales. The study concluded that six of seven koalas showed an aversive response. However, we regard the paper as misleading because it contains serious errors in the examination of koala home ranges and in the subsequent assessment of ‘aversive behaviour’ during the music festival. We conclude that Phillips’ paper is based on sufficient data to state that three, not six, of the koalas he studied displayed a short-term behavioural response to the music festival. These koalas temporarily moved outside of their estimated ranges during the festival period (10–80 m). Further, Phillips fails to report crucial ecological data regarding the high level of disease and mortality he recorded, which are presented in their entirety in the author’s prior, unpublished report. For the two deaths that are reported, no mention is made that these koalas had pre-existing disease. Rather, the author raises the possibility that the mortalities may have been related to festival-induced stress. The omission of such key data is prejudicial to the interpretation of results. The reported short-term impact of the festival upon some of the study animals is indeed noteworthy; however, it is apparent that the impact has been considerably overstated due to errors of analysis and the omission of critical ecological data. Our critique highlights our concerns by drawing on the author’s unpublished report as well as our own research at the same site over the past five years. Our aim is to ensure that debate over the impact of music festivals on wildlife is based on sound data analyses and unbiased interpretation, to provide guidance to relevant regulators and land managers.

1080 aerial baiting for the control of wild dogs and its impact on spotted-tailed quoll (Dasyurus maculatus) populations in eastern Australia

2007 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 48 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Körtner
Keyword(s):  
New England ◽  
New South ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Fresh Meat ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
History Of ◽  
A Site ◽  
Wild Dogs ◽  
Test Result

To further investigate the non-target impact of baiting using sodium monofluoroacetate (compound 1080) to control wild dogs, a population of radio-collared spotted-tailed quolls was subject to an experimental aerial baiting exercise. The trial was conducted at a site on the New England Tablelands, New South Wales, without a recent history of that practice. Sixteen quolls were trapped and radio-collared before baiting. Fresh meat baits were delivered from a helicopter at a rate of 10–40 baits km–1. In addition to 1080 (4.2 mg), each bait contained the bait marker rhodamine B (50 mg), which becomes incorporated into growing hair if an animal survives bait consumption. Two quoll mortalities were recorded following aerial baiting. Both quolls died 3–5 weeks after baiting when baits, on average, retained little 1080. None of the carcasses contained traces of 1080, but the test result is less reliable for the quoll that was found 19 days after its death although tissue was well preserved because of the cool weather. Nevertheless, given that this animal died 34 days after bait delivery, it appears likely that none of the radio-collared quolls succumbed to baiting. In contrast, vibrissae samples collected from 19 quolls captured after the baiting showed that 68% had eaten baits and survived. Furthermore, multiple bait takes were common, with up to six baits consumed by one female. The results demonstrate that most, if not all, quolls survived the baiting trial, including those that consumed dog baits. Hence bait consumption figures per se are not indicative of mortality rates attributable to poisoning.

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