scholarly journals Monitoring and forecasting the COVID-19 epidemic in Moscow: model selection by balanced identification technology - version: September 2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Sokolov ◽  
Lyubov Sokolova
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Model Selection ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Real Object ◽  
List Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
New Knowledge ◽  
Monitoring And Forecasting

AbstractA mathematical model is a reflection of knowledge on the real object studied. The paper shows how the accumulation of data (statistical data and knowledge) about the COVID-19 pandemic lead to gradual refinement of mathematical models, to the expansion of the scope of their use. The resulting model satisfactorily describes the dynamics of COVID-19 in Moscow from 19.03.2020 to 01.09.2021 and can be used for forecasting with a horizon of several months. The dynamics of the model is mainly determined by herd immunity. Monitoring the situation in Moscow has not yet (as of 01.09.2021) revealed noticeable seasonality of the disease nor an increase in infectivity (due to the Delta strain). The results of using balanced identification technology to monitor the COVID-19 pandemic are:models corresponding to the data available at different points in time (from March 2020 to August 2021);new knowledge (dependencies) acquired;forecasts for the third and fourth waves in Moscow.Discrepancies that manifested after 01.09.2021 and possible further modifications of the model are discussed

scholarly journals The Model of Container Feeder Line Organization Focused on the Nature and Parameters of External Container Flows

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. A94-A102
Author(s):  
Oleksii Drozhzhyn ◽  
Yuliia Koskina
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
External Environment ◽  
Total Capacity ◽  
The Mathematical Model

This article considers the trunk lines, connected with the feeder region as the external environment for the system - feeder lines (its subsystems are container flows, ports and container ships). Hub ports are considered to be the boundary of the system and the external environment. Thus, mathematical models were simulated for the two levels. At the first level, container flows are determined (based on statistical data), which enter and exit the hub. At the second level, the mathematical model allows to find for the feeder line: volumes of container flows, the total capacity of the ships which serves the cargo, and parts of the distribution of this capacity between feeder ports.

scholarly journals Multilayered model of speech

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrey Chistyakov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Memory Access ◽  
Knowledge Assessment ◽  
Human Speech ◽  
The Third ◽  
Self Image ◽  
New Knowledge ◽  
Universal Solution ◽  
Group A ◽  
Grammar Systems

Today there are no grammar systems, which allow the creation of a fundamentally new word and concept. All existing grammar systems only work by referring to previously chosen terms, on the bases of which all definitions are created. Implementation of operation on grammar systems are introduced for creation of new terms. The main prerequisite of the research was the rejection of finding a universal solution, which is true for any person. Instead of this, all people were divided into groups according MBTI classification. Each group was expected to have uniform perception of new knowledge. Assessment has been conducted to each group. A mathematical model was created as result of the communication. The scheme of dividing words and sentences into components are shown in the first section of the article. The second section shows a notation construction from the components and the notation packing in memory. The third section shows the ability for conscious memory access (self-action and self-image). As a result, the model of human speech was structured, in where it is possible to create new terms from new knowledge independently.

scholarly journals Nonlinear mathematical model and numerical algorithm for monitoring and predicting the concentration of harmful substances in the atmosphere

2021 ◽  
Vol 264 ◽  
pp. 01021
Author(s):  
Tursun Shafiev ◽  
Gulchera Shadmanova ◽  
Khabiba Karimova ◽  
Farrukh Muradov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Numerical Algorithm ◽  
Computational Algorithm ◽  
Calculated Data ◽  
Mathematical Apparatus ◽  
Industrial Emissions ◽  
Nonlinear Mathematical Model ◽  
The Third ◽  
Specific Object ◽  
Monitoring And Forecasting

The article developed a nonlinear mathematical model and an effective numerical algorithm for monitoring and forecasting the process of spreading industrial emissions in the atmosphere, taking into account the orography of the area and the speed of movement of fine substances. Multidimensional partial differential equations describe the model with corresponding initial, internal, and boundary conditions of the third kind to consider mass transfer across the interface. In the work, to prove the adequacy of the developed mathematical apparatus, the calculated data are compared with field data taken from a specific object, in which the computational algorithm provides sufficient accuracy of the solution, based on which it can be concluded that the developed mathematical model and the numerical algorithm have a certain advantage over others numerical methods.

scholarly journals Multilayered model of speech

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrey Chistyakov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Memory Access ◽  
Knowledge Assessment ◽  
Human Speech ◽  
The Third ◽  
Self Image ◽  
New Knowledge ◽  
Universal Solution ◽  
Group A ◽  
Grammar Systems

Today there are no grammar systems, which allow the creation of a fundamentally new word and concept. All existing grammar systems only work by referring to previously chosen terms, on the bases of which all definitions are created. Implementation of operation on grammar systems are introduced for creation of new terms. The main prerequisite of the research was the rejection of finding a universal solution, which is true for any person. Instead of this, all people were divided into groups according MBTI classification. Each group was expected to have uniform perception of new knowledge. Assessment has been conducted to each group. A mathematical model was created as result of the communication. The scheme of dividing words and sentences into components are shown in the first section of the article. The second section shows a notation construction from the components and the notation packing in memory. The third section shows the ability for conscious memory access (self-action and self-image). As a result, the model of human speech was structured, in where it is possible to create new terms from new knowledge independently.

scholarly journals Multilayered model of speech

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrey Chistyakov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Memory Access ◽  
Knowledge Assessment ◽  
Human Speech ◽  
The Third ◽  
Self Image ◽  
New Knowledge ◽  
Universal Solution ◽  
Group A ◽  
Grammar Systems

Today there are no grammar systems, which allow the creation of a fundamentally new word and concept. All existing grammar systems only work by referring to previously chosen terms, on the bases of which all definitions are created. Implementation of operation on grammar systems are introduced for creation of new terms. The main prerequisite of the research was the rejection of finding a universal solution, which is true for any person. Instead of this, all people were divided into groups according MBTI classification. Each group was expected to have uniform perception of new knowledge. Assessment has been conducted to each group. A mathematical model was created as result of the communication. The scheme of dividing words and sentences into components are shown in the first section of the article. The second section shows a notation construction from the components and the notation packing in memory. The third section shows the ability for conscious memory access (self-action and self-image). As a result, the model of human speech was structured, in where it is possible to create new terms from new knowledge independently.

A mathematical model and an algorithm for sampling sets of components on the Assembly enterprises of space technology

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-55
Author(s):  
V. B. Rudakov ◽  
V. M. Makarov ◽  
M. I. Makarov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Space Technology ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Problem Statement ◽  
Optimal Plan ◽  
Product Mix ◽  
Technical Parameters ◽  
Complex Products ◽  
Assembly Plants

The article considers the problem of determining the rational plans of the input sampling reliability and technical parameters of components of space technology, the totality of which is supplied to the Assembly plants for the manufacture of complex products of space technology. Problem statement and mathematical model based on the minimization of the economic costs of control and losses related to the risks of taking wrong decisions, are given in the article. The properties of the mathematical models are investigated, the algorithm for its optimization is developed. The result is an optimal plan for the sampling of sets of components, which includes: an optimal product mix subject to mandatory control of the aggregate and optimum risks of first and second kind, when acceptance number of statistical plan is zero. The latter circumstance is due to the high requirements of reliability and technical parameters of products of space technology.

scholarly journals An Analysis of Existing Production Frameworks for Statistical and Geographic Information: Synergies, Gaps and Integration

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 374
Author(s):  
Francisco Javier Ariza-López ◽  
Antonio Rodríguez-Pascual ◽  
Francisco J. Lopez-Pellicer ◽  
Luis M. Vilches-Blázquez ◽  
Agustín Villar-Iglesias ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Data ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Public Agencies ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Statistical Process ◽  
The Third ◽  
Spatial Data Quality ◽  
Statistical Area

The production of official statistical and geospatial data is often in the hands of highly specialized public agencies that have traditionally followed their own paths and established their own production frameworks. In this article, we present the main frameworks of these two areas and focus on the possibility and need to achieve a better integration between them through the interoperability of systems, processes, and data. The statistical area is well led and has well-defined frameworks. The geospatial area does not have clear leadership and the large number of standards establish a framework that is not always obvious. On the other hand, the lack of a general and common legal framework is also highlighted. Additionally, three examples are offered: the first is the application of the spatial data quality model to the case of statistical data, the second of the application of the statistical process model to the geospatial case, and the third is the use of linked geospatial and statistical data. These examples demonstrate the possibility of transferring experiences/advances from one area to another. In this way, we emphasize the conceptual proximity of these two areas, highlighting synergies, gaps, and potential integration.

Rapid determination of glomerular filtration rate by single-bolus inulin: a comparison of estimation analyses

1998 ◽  
Vol 84 (6) ◽  
pp. 2154-2162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cord Sturgeon ◽  
Albert D. Sam ◽  
William R. Law
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Glomerular Filtration Rate ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Glomerular Filtration ◽  
Filtration Rate ◽  
Rapid Determination ◽  
Constant Infusion ◽  
Sprague Dawley ◽  
Single Bolus ◽  
Sprague Dawley Rats

Rapid measurement of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) by an inulin single-bolus technique would be useful, but its accuracy has been questioned. We hypothesized that reported inaccuracies reflect the use of inappropriate mathematical models. GFR was measured in 14 intact and 5 unilaterally nephrectomized conscious male Sprague-Dawley rats (mean weight 368 ± 12 g) by both single-bolus (25 mg/kg) and constant-infusion techniques (0.693 mg ⋅ kg−1 ⋅ min−1). The temporal decline in plasma inulin concentration was analyzed through biexponential curve fitting, which accounted for renal inulin loss before complete vascular and interstitial mixing. We compared our mathematical model based on empirical rationale with those of other investigators whose studies suggest inaccuracy of single-bolus methods. Our mathematical model yielded GFR values by single bolus that agreed with those obtained by constant infusion [slope = 0.94 ± 0.16 (SE); y intercept = 0.23 ± 0.64; r = 0.82]. In comparison to the data obtained by constant inulin infusion, this method yielded a very small bias of −0.0041 ± 0.19 ml/min. Two previously reported models yielded unsatisfactory values (slope = 1.46 ± 0.34, y intercept = 0.47 ± 1.5, r = 0.72; and slope = 0.17 ± 1.26, y intercept = 17.15 ± 5.14, r = 0.03). The biases obtained by using these methods were −2.21 ± 0.42 and −13.90 ± 1.44 ml/min, respectively. The data indicate that when appropriate mathematical models are used, inulin clearance after single-bolus delivery can be used to measure GFR equivalent to that obtained by constant infusion of inulin. Attempts to use methods of analysis for simplicity or expediency can result in unacceptable measurements relative to the clinical range of values seen.

Twin Models

1970 ◽  
Vol 19 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 141-141
Author(s):  
L. Gedda ◽  
G. Brenci ◽  
M. T. Lun
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Genetic Parameters ◽  
Simultaneous Recording ◽  
Theoretical Relationship ◽  
Twin Models

The theoretical relationship between the distribution of a given trait in a population of twin pairs and several genetic parameters has been examined. In particular, a series of mathematical models has been worked out, that, when applied to a twin population, nonselected for the occurrence of a given trait and nondiagnosed as to zygosity, leads to an estimate of:1) The MZ: DZ ratio in the population;2) The frequency of the genotype responsible for a given trait;3) The probability of manifestation of the trait;4) The value of epistatic factors.A further mathematical model affords the estimate of linkage in the hypothesis of simultaneous recording of more than one trait.

Numerical modelling of swirling momentumless turbulent wake dynamics

2018 ◽  
pp. 37-48
Author(s):  
Андрей Геннадьевич Деменков ◽  
Геннадий Георгиевич Черных
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Equations Of Motion ◽  
Turbulent Wake ◽  
The Body ◽  
Jet Flows ◽  
Reynolds Stresses ◽  
Bodies Of Revolution ◽  
Averaged Equations

С применением математической модели, включающей осредненные уравнения движения и дифференциальные уравнения переноса нормальных рейнольдсовых напряжений и скорости диссипации, выполнено численное моделирование эволюции безымпульсного закрученного турбулентного следа с ненулевым моментом количества движения за телом вращения. Получено, что начиная с расстояний порядка 1000 диаметров от тела течение становится автомодельным. На основе анализа результатов численных экспериментов построены упрощенные математические модели дальнего следа. Swirling turbulent jet flows are of interest in connection with the design and development of various energy and chemical-technological devices as well as both study of flow around bodies and solving problems of environmental hydrodynamics, etc. An interesting example of such a flow is a swirling turbulent wake behind bodies of revolution. Analysis of the known works on the numerical simulation of swirling turbulent wakes behind bodies of revolution indicates lack of knowledge on the dynamics of the momentumless swirling turbulent wake. A special case of the motion of a body with a propulsor whose thrust compensates the swirl is studied, but there is a nonzero integral swirl in the flow. In previous works with the participation of the authors, a numerical simulation of the initial stage of the evolution of a swirling momentumless turbulent wake based on a hierarchy of second-order mathematical models was performed. It is shown that a satisfactory agreement of the results of calculations with the available experimental data is possible only with the use of a mathematical model that includes the averaged equations of motion and differential equations for the transfer of normal Reynolds stresses along the rate of dissipation. In the present work, based on the above mentioned mathematical model, a numerical simulation of the evolution of a far momentumless swirling turbulent wake with a nonzero angular momentum behind the body of revolution is performed. It is shown that starting from distances of the order of 1000 diameters from the body the flow becomes self-similar. Based on the analysis of the results of numerical experiments, simplified mathematical models of the far wake are constructed. The authors dedicate this work to the blessed memory of Vladimir Alekseevich Kostomakha.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document