scholarly journals Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam J Kucharski ◽  
Mike Kama ◽  
Conall H Watson ◽  
Maite Aubry ◽  
Sebastian Funk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Major Health ◽  
Dengue Transmission ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Large Outbreak ◽  
And Control ◽  
Additional Reduction

AbstractDengue is a major health burden, but it can be challenging to examine transmission dynamics and evaluate control measures because outbreaks depend on multiple factors, including human population structure, prior immunity and climate. We combined population-representative paired sera collected before and after the major 2013/14 dengue-3 outbreak in Fiji with surveillance data to determine how such factors influence dengue virus transmission and control in island settings. Our results suggested the 10-19 year-old age group had the highest risk of acquiring infection, but we did not find strong evidence that other demographic or environmental risk factors were linked to seroconversion. Mathematical modelling showed that temperature-driven variation in transmission and herd immunity could not fully explain observed dynamics. However, there was evidence of an additional reduction in transmission coinciding with a vector clean-up campaign, which may have contributed to the decline in cases and prevented transmission continuing into the following season.

scholarly journals Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji

eLife ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam J Kucharski ◽  
Mike Kama ◽  
Conall H Watson ◽  
Maite Aubry ◽  
Sebastian Funk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Major Health ◽  
Dengue Transmission ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Large Outbreak ◽  
Serological Data ◽  
And Control ◽  
Additional Reduction

Dengue is a major health burden, but it can be challenging to examine transmission and evaluate control measures because outbreaks depend on multiple factors, including human population structure, prior immunity and climate. We combined population-representative paired sera collected before and after the 2013/14 dengue-3 outbreak in Fiji with surveillance data to determine how such factors influence transmission and control in island settings. Our results suggested the 10–19 year-old age group had the highest risk of infection, but we did not find strong evidence that other demographic or environmental risk factors were linked to seroconversion. A mathematical model jointly fitted to surveillance and serological data suggested that herd immunity and seasonally varying transmission could not explain observed dynamics. However, the model showed evidence of an additional reduction in transmission coinciding with a vector clean-up campaign, which may have contributed to the decline in cases in the later stages of the outbreak.

scholarly journals Author response: Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam J Kucharski ◽  
Mike Kama ◽  
Conall H Watson ◽  
Maite Aubry ◽  
Sebastian Funk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Author Response ◽  
Dengue Transmission ◽  
Large Outbreak ◽  
And Control

scholarly journals International travelers and genomics uncover a ‘hidden’ Zika outbreak

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan D. Grubaugh ◽  
Sharada Saraf ◽  
Karthik Gangavarapu ◽  
Alexander Watts ◽  
Amanda L. Tan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Zika Virus ◽  
Public Health Surveillance ◽  
Mosquito Control ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Local Case ◽  
Peak Transmission ◽  
And Control

AbstractThe ongoing Zika epidemic in the Americas has challenged public health surveillance, response, and control systems. Even as the epidemic appears to be near its end in the Americas, it is unclear whether substantial Zika virus transmission may still be ongoing. This issue is exacerbated by large discrepancies in local case reporting and significant delays in detecting outbreaks due to surveillance gaps. To uncover locations with lingering outbreaks in the Americas, we investigated travel-associated Zika cases diagnosed in the United States and Europe to identify signatures of transmission dynamics that were not captured by local reporting. We found that a large and unreported Zika outbreak occurred in Cuba during 2017, a year after peak transmission in neighboring countries, with cases still appearing in 2018. By sequencing Zika virus from infected travelers, we show that the 2017 outbreak in Cuba was sparked by long-lived lineages of Zika virus introduced from multiple places in the Americas a year prior. Our data suggest that while aggressive mosquito control in Cuba may initially have been effective at mitigating Zika virus transmission, in the absence of vaccines, herd immunity, or strong international coordination, such control measures may need to be maintained to be effective. Our study highlights how Zika virus may still be ‘silently’ spreading in the Americas and provides a framework for more accurately understanding outbreak dynamics.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of measures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of measures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China. Methods The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered/Removed (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number (Reff) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the measures was assessed. Results A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit the reported data well (R2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The Reff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would have reached a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would have been 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread. Conclusions COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proven effective; increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals Awareness of COVID-19 Before and After Quarantine Based on Crowdsourced Data From Rabigh City, Saudi Arabia: A Cross-Sectional and Comparative Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mai Aldhahri ◽  
Rana Alghamdi
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Infection Prevention And Control ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Two Stages ◽  
And Control

Background: Infection prevention and control measures are critical for the prevention of the spread of COVID-19.Aim: In this study, we aimed to measure and evaluate the level of awareness and knowledge of the prevention, symptoms, and transmission control of COVID-19 before and after quarantine among the residents of Rabigh city and adjacent villages in Saudi Arabia.Methods: A cross-sectional online survey was conducted in two stages: the first stage took place before quarantine and the second stage took place after quarantine. The survey was filled out electronically.Results: A total of 448 participants responded and filled out the questionnaires. Females (73.70%) formed the largest number of participants for both stages. The majority of the participants were &lt;30 years old (50.90%) and had a high education level in various sectors and levels (97.1%). It was noticeable that during the first stage, the participants' awareness of COVID-19 symptoms was not very high: 13.62% did not know about the symptoms. However, by the second stage, awareness about symptoms had increased (9.6%).Conclusion: The residents of Rabigh city and the surrounding villages had good levels of knowledge about COVID-19.

scholarly journals Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England

2021 ◽  
pp. eabg4262
Author(s):  
Edward S. Knock ◽  
Lilith K. Whittles ◽  
John A. Lees ◽  
Pablo N. Perez-Guzman ◽  
Robert Verity ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Care ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Care Homes ◽  
High Coverage ◽  
Degree Of Protection

We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Compared with other approaches, our model provides a synthesis of multiple surveillance data streams into a single coherent modelling framework allowing transmission and severity to be disentangled from features of the surveillance system. Of the control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number (Rteff) below 1 consistently; if introduced one week earlier it could have reduced deaths in the first wave from an estimated 48,600 to 25,600 (95% credible interval [95%CrI]: 15,900–38,400). The infection fatality ratio decreased from 1.00% (95%CrI: 0.85%–1.21%) to 0.79% (95%CrI: 0.63%–0.99%), suggesting improved clinical care. The infection fatality ratio was higher in the elderly residing in care homes (23.3%, 95%CrI: 14.7%–35.2%) than those residing in the community (7.9%, 95%CrI: 5.9%–10.3%). On 2nd December 2020 England was still far from herd immunity, with regional cumulative infection incidence between 7.6% (95%CrI: 5.4%–10.2%) and 22.3% (95%CrI: 19.4%–25.4%) of the population. Therefore, any vaccination campaign will need to achieve high coverage and a high degree of protection in vaccinated individuals to allow non-pharmaceutical interventions to be lifted without a resurgence of transmission.

scholarly journals Emergence of Epidemic Zika Virus Transmission and Congenital Zika Syndrome: Are Recently Evolved Traits to Blame?

mBio ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott C. Weaver
Keyword(s):  
Zika Virus ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Severe Infection ◽  
Human Infection ◽  
Conclusive Evidence ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Reverse Genetic ◽  
Congenital Zika Syndrome ◽  
And Control

ABSTRACT The mechanisms responsible for the dramatic emergence of Zika virus (ZIKV), accompanied by congenital Zika syndrome and Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), remain unclear. However, two hypotheses are prominent: (i) evolution for enhanced urban transmission via adaptation to mosquito vectors, or for enhanced human infection to increase amplification, or (ii) the stochastic introduction of ZIKV into large, naive human populations in regions with abundant Aedes aegypti populations, leading to enough rare, severe infection outcomes for their first recognition. Advances in animal models for human infection combined with improvements in serodiagnostics, better surveillance, and reverse genetic approaches should provide more conclusive evidence of whether mosquito transmission or human pathogenesis changed coincidentally with emergence in the South Pacific and the Americas. Ultimately, understanding the mechanisms of epidemic ZIKV emergence, and its associated syndromes, is critical to predict future risks as well as to target surveillance and control measures in key locations.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the compliance of people with the containment measures and wearing-mask behaviours in different stages of COVID-19 pandemic: An observational study from Turkey

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 19-26
Author(s):  
Erhan KAYA ◽  
Hüseyin ÜÇER
Keyword(s):  
Observational Study ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The People ◽  
Medical Facilities ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Chisquare Test ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Collection Form ◽  
And Control

Introduction. Protection measurements should be paid attention so that the regions affected to a great extent gain time for medical care and medical facilities can cope with increasing intensive care cases. The purpose of this study was to investigate the change in the rate of behaviours of people related to going out and wearing a mask during the pandemic in Turkey. Material and methods. This observational study investigated people’s behaviours of going out and mask-wearing in the province of Kahramanmaras in Turkey during 4 different periods with 14-day intervals before and after Covid-19 pandemic. A total of 48 hours camera record made in 4 different periods at 12 pedestrian crossings used intensively by people was examined. Two researchers recorded and examined the number and gender of the people using these pedestrian crossings and their wearing-mask behaviours on a data collection form. The obtained data were presented as tables and graphics, showing numbers and percentages. Appropriate mask-wearing according to gender was analysed by ChiSquare test. Results. The number of people using pedestrian crossings decreased by 70.19% for men and 87.07% for women compared to before the pandemic. When comparing the appropriate mask-wearing according to gender, it was concluded that women had a higher statistically significant rate on the appropriate mask-wearing compared to men (p<0.05).Conclusions. Compliance to mask-wearing and control measures was high at the beginning of the pandemic. A high percentage of women wore masks correctly. About 40 days after the pandemic started, people wore the mask less correctly.

scholarly journals Prevention and Control of Legionella and Pseudomonas spp. Colonization in Dental Units

Pathogens ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benedetta Tuvo ◽  
Michele Totaro ◽  
Maria Luisa Cristina ◽  
Anna Maria Spagnolo ◽  
David Di Cave ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Management Plan ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Limited Effect ◽  
Strict Adherence ◽  
Healthcare Settings ◽  
Dental Clinics ◽  
Colony Forming Units ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Dental Unit Waterlines ◽  
And Control

Introduction: Dental Unit Waterlines (DUWLs) have shown to be a source of Legionella infection. We report the experience of different dental healthcare settings where a risk management plan was implemented. Materials and methods: In a Hospital Odontostomatology Clinic (HOC) and three Private Dental Clinics (PDCs) housing 13 and six dental units (DUs), respectively, an assessment checklist was applied to evaluate staff compliance with guideline recommendations. DUWLs microbial parameters were investigated before and after the application of corrective actions. Results: In the HOC a poor adherence to good practices was demonstrated, whereas protocols were carefully applied in PDCs. L. pneumophila sg 2–15 was isolated in 31% (4/13) and 33% (2/6) of DUs in HOC and PDCs, respectively, mainly from handpieces (32%, 6/19) with counts >102 colony-forming units per milliliter (CFU/L), often associated with P. aeruginosa (68%, 13/19). The shock disinfection with 3% v/v hydrogen peroxide (HP) showed a limited effect, with a recolonization period of about 4 weeks. Legionella was eradicated only after 6% v/v HP shock disinfection and filters-installation, whilst P. aeruginosa after the third shock disinfection with a solution of 4% v/v HP and biodegradable surfactants. Conclusions: Our data demonstrate the presence and persistence of microbial contamination within the DUWLs, which required strict adherence to control measures and the choice of effective disinfectants.

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