scholarly journals Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji

eLife ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam J Kucharski ◽  
Mike Kama ◽  
Conall H Watson ◽  
Maite Aubry ◽  
Sebastian Funk ◽  
...  

Dengue is a major health burden, but it can be challenging to examine transmission and evaluate control measures because outbreaks depend on multiple factors, including human population structure, prior immunity and climate. We combined population-representative paired sera collected before and after the 2013/14 dengue-3 outbreak in Fiji with surveillance data to determine how such factors influence transmission and control in island settings. Our results suggested the 10–19 year-old age group had the highest risk of infection, but we did not find strong evidence that other demographic or environmental risk factors were linked to seroconversion. A mathematical model jointly fitted to surveillance and serological data suggested that herd immunity and seasonally varying transmission could not explain observed dynamics. However, the model showed evidence of an additional reduction in transmission coinciding with a vector clean-up campaign, which may have contributed to the decline in cases in the later stages of the outbreak.

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam J Kucharski ◽  
Mike Kama ◽  
Conall H Watson ◽  
Maite Aubry ◽  
Sebastian Funk ◽  
...  

AbstractDengue is a major health burden, but it can be challenging to examine transmission dynamics and evaluate control measures because outbreaks depend on multiple factors, including human population structure, prior immunity and climate. We combined population-representative paired sera collected before and after the major 2013/14 dengue-3 outbreak in Fiji with surveillance data to determine how such factors influence dengue virus transmission and control in island settings. Our results suggested the 10-19 year-old age group had the highest risk of acquiring infection, but we did not find strong evidence that other demographic or environmental risk factors were linked to seroconversion. Mathematical modelling showed that temperature-driven variation in transmission and herd immunity could not fully explain observed dynamics. However, there was evidence of an additional reduction in transmission coinciding with a vector clean-up campaign, which may have contributed to the decline in cases and prevented transmission continuing into the following season.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam J Kucharski ◽  
Mike Kama ◽  
Conall H Watson ◽  
Maite Aubry ◽  
Sebastian Funk ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of measures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China. Methods The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered/Removed (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number (Reff) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the measures was assessed. Results A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit the reported data well (R2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The Reff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would have reached a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would have been 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread. Conclusions COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proven effective; increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mai Aldhahri ◽  
Rana Alghamdi

Background: Infection prevention and control measures are critical for the prevention of the spread of COVID-19.Aim: In this study, we aimed to measure and evaluate the level of awareness and knowledge of the prevention, symptoms, and transmission control of COVID-19 before and after quarantine among the residents of Rabigh city and adjacent villages in Saudi Arabia.Methods: A cross-sectional online survey was conducted in two stages: the first stage took place before quarantine and the second stage took place after quarantine. The survey was filled out electronically.Results: A total of 448 participants responded and filled out the questionnaires. Females (73.70%) formed the largest number of participants for both stages. The majority of the participants were &lt;30 years old (50.90%) and had a high education level in various sectors and levels (97.1%). It was noticeable that during the first stage, the participants' awareness of COVID-19 symptoms was not very high: 13.62% did not know about the symptoms. However, by the second stage, awareness about symptoms had increased (9.6%).Conclusion: The residents of Rabigh city and the surrounding villages had good levels of knowledge about COVID-19.


2021 ◽  
pp. eabg4262
Author(s):  
Edward S. Knock ◽  
Lilith K. Whittles ◽  
John A. Lees ◽  
Pablo N. Perez-Guzman ◽  
Robert Verity ◽  
...  

We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Compared with other approaches, our model provides a synthesis of multiple surveillance data streams into a single coherent modelling framework allowing transmission and severity to be disentangled from features of the surveillance system. Of the control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number (Rteff) below 1 consistently; if introduced one week earlier it could have reduced deaths in the first wave from an estimated 48,600 to 25,600 (95% credible interval [95%CrI]: 15,900–38,400). The infection fatality ratio decreased from 1.00% (95%CrI: 0.85%–1.21%) to 0.79% (95%CrI: 0.63%–0.99%), suggesting improved clinical care. The infection fatality ratio was higher in the elderly residing in care homes (23.3%, 95%CrI: 14.7%–35.2%) than those residing in the community (7.9%, 95%CrI: 5.9%–10.3%). On 2nd December 2020 England was still far from herd immunity, with regional cumulative infection incidence between 7.6% (95%CrI: 5.4%–10.2%) and 22.3% (95%CrI: 19.4%–25.4%) of the population. Therefore, any vaccination campaign will need to achieve high coverage and a high degree of protection in vaccinated individuals to allow non-pharmaceutical interventions to be lifted without a resurgence of transmission.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 19-26
Author(s):  
Erhan KAYA ◽  
Hüseyin ÜÇER

Introduction. Protection measurements should be paid attention so that the regions affected to a great extent gain time for medical care and medical facilities can cope with increasing intensive care cases. The purpose of this study was to investigate the change in the rate of behaviours of people related to going out and wearing a mask during the pandemic in Turkey. Material and methods. This observational study investigated people’s behaviours of going out and mask-wearing in the province of Kahramanmaras in Turkey during 4 different periods with 14-day intervals before and after Covid-19 pandemic. A total of 48 hours camera record made in 4 different periods at 12 pedestrian crossings used intensively by people was examined. Two researchers recorded and examined the number and gender of the people using these pedestrian crossings and their wearing-mask behaviours on a data collection form. The obtained data were presented as tables and graphics, showing numbers and percentages. Appropriate mask-wearing according to gender was analysed by ChiSquare test. Results. The number of people using pedestrian crossings decreased by 70.19% for men and 87.07% for women compared to before the pandemic. When comparing the appropriate mask-wearing according to gender, it was concluded that women had a higher statistically significant rate on the appropriate mask-wearing compared to men (p<0.05).Conclusions. Compliance to mask-wearing and control measures was high at the beginning of the pandemic. A high percentage of women wore masks correctly. About 40 days after the pandemic started, people wore the mask less correctly.


Pathogens ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benedetta Tuvo ◽  
Michele Totaro ◽  
Maria Luisa Cristina ◽  
Anna Maria Spagnolo ◽  
David Di Cave ◽  
...  

Introduction: Dental Unit Waterlines (DUWLs) have shown to be a source of Legionella infection. We report the experience of different dental healthcare settings where a risk management plan was implemented. Materials and methods: In a Hospital Odontostomatology Clinic (HOC) and three Private Dental Clinics (PDCs) housing 13 and six dental units (DUs), respectively, an assessment checklist was applied to evaluate staff compliance with guideline recommendations. DUWLs microbial parameters were investigated before and after the application of corrective actions. Results: In the HOC a poor adherence to good practices was demonstrated, whereas protocols were carefully applied in PDCs. L. pneumophila sg 2–15 was isolated in 31% (4/13) and 33% (2/6) of DUs in HOC and PDCs, respectively, mainly from handpieces (32%, 6/19) with counts >102 colony-forming units per milliliter (CFU/L), often associated with P. aeruginosa (68%, 13/19). The shock disinfection with 3% v/v hydrogen peroxide (HP) showed a limited effect, with a recolonization period of about 4 weeks. Legionella was eradicated only after 6% v/v HP shock disinfection and filters-installation, whilst P. aeruginosa after the third shock disinfection with a solution of 4% v/v HP and biodegradable surfactants. Conclusions: Our data demonstrate the presence and persistence of microbial contamination within the DUWLs, which required strict adherence to control measures and the choice of effective disinfectants.


2009 ◽  
Vol 138 (4) ◽  
pp. 585-591 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. T. D. THAI ◽  
N. NAGELKERKE ◽  
H. L. PHUONG ◽  
T. T. T. NGA ◽  
P. T. GIAO ◽  
...  

SUMMARYThis study was performed to test the hypothesis that there are ‘hotspots’, i.e. geographical heterogeneity, of dengue transmission. Data from two repeat serosurveys in two villages in Vietnam were used to identify incident infections and to relate these to prevalence at baseline and thus assess geographical heterogeneity, i.e. clustering, in dengue transmission. A total of 400 households were surveyed; serological data from 521 children at baseline and from 119 children at follow-up were included in a spatial analysis. Geographical heterogeneity of dengue transmission was explored using a permutation null distribution test. This showed for the first time evidence of clustering of dengue virus transmission at the household level in asymptomatic children. Risk areas could be identified by seroprevalence surveys combined with mapping. Control of dengue virus transmission could be supported by identification and control of hotspots.


2020 ◽  
Vol 73 (suppl 2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruna Hinnah Borges Martins de Freitas ◽  
Mayrene Dias de Sousa Moreira Alves ◽  
Maria Aparecida Munhoz Gaíva

ABSTRACT Objective: to identify with the literature the measures to prevent and control neonatal infection by COVID-19. Methods: a scope review carried out by searching for studies in databases and institutional health websites. The final sample was 25 articles. Results: among the main measures are the use of masks by suspected or infected people in contact with healthy newborns, hand hygiene before and after each care and feeding as well as the tools used for milking. It is indispensable to use personal protective equipment by health professionals in neonatology services to maintain a private room for infected newborns or to use physical barriers. Early diagnosis and timely case management is essential to reduce virus transmissibility. Conclusions: the research contributed to elucidate health and nursing actions in preventing and controlling neonatal infection by COVID-19.


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