scholarly journals Large-scale Lassa fever outbreaks in Nigeria: quantifying the association between disease reproduction number and local rainfall

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shi Zhao ◽  
Salihu S. Musa ◽  
Hao Fu ◽  
Daihai He ◽  
Jing Qin
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Hemorrhagic Fever ◽  
Lassa Fever ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Local Rainfall

AbstractBackgroundLassa fever (LF) is increasingly recognized as an important rodent-borne viral hemorrhagic fever presenting a severe public health threat to sub-Saharan West Africa. In 2018, LF caused an unprecedented outbreak in Nigeria, and the situation was worse in 2019. This work aims to study the epidemiological features of outbreaks in different Nigerian regions and quantify the association between reproduction number (R) and local rainfall by using modeling analysis.MethodsWe quantify the infectivity of LF by the reproduction numbers estimated from four different growth models: the Richards, three-parameter logistic, Gompertz, and Weibull growth models. LF surveillance data are used to fit the growth models and estimate theRs and epidemic turning points (τ) in different regions at different time periods. Cochran’s Q test is further applied to test the spatial heterogeneity of the LF epidemics. A linear random-effect regression model is adopted to quantify the association betweenRand local rainfall with various lag terms.FindingsOur estimatedRs for 2017-18 (1.33 with 95% CI: [1.29, 1.37]) and 2018-19 (1.29 with 95% CI: [1.27, 1.32]) are significantly higher than those for 2016-17 (1.23 with 95% CI: [1.22, 1.24]). We report spatial heterogeneity in theRs for outbreaks in different Nigerian regions. For the association between rainfall andR, we find that a one unit (mm) increase in average rainfall over the past 7 months could cause a 0.62% (95% CI: [0.20%, 1.05%]) rise inR.ConclusionThere is significant spatial heterogeneity in the LF epidemics in different Nigerian regions. We report clear evidence of rainfall impacts on LF outbreaks in Nigeria and quantify the impact.

scholarly journals Large-scale Lassa fever outbreaks in Nigeria: quantifying the association between disease reproduction number and local rainfall

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shi Zhao ◽  
Salihu S. Musa ◽  
Hao Fu ◽  
Daihai He ◽  
Jing Qin
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Lassa Fever ◽  
Viral Haemorrhagic Fever ◽  
Average Monthly Rainfall ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Lassa fever (LF) is increasingly recognised as an important rodent-borne viral haemorrhagic fever presenting a severe public health threat to sub-Saharan West Africa. In 2017–18, LF caused an unprecedented epidemic in Nigeria and the situation was worsening in 2018–19. This work aims to study the epidemiological features of epidemics in different Nigerian regions and quantify the association between reproduction number (R) and state rainfall. We quantify the infectivity of LF by the reproduction numbers estimated from four different growth models: the Richards, three-parameter logistic, Gompertz and Weibull growth models. LF surveillance data are used to fit the growth models and estimate the Rs and epidemic turning points (τ) in different regions at different time periods. Cochran's Q test is further applied to test the spatial heterogeneity of the LF epidemics. A linear random-effect regression model is adopted to quantify the association between R and state rainfall with various lag terms. Our estimated Rs for 2017–18 (1.33 with 95% CI 1.29–1.37) was significantly higher than those for 2016–17 (1.23 with 95% CI: (1.22, 1.24)) and 2018–19 (ranged from 1.08 to 1.36). We report spatial heterogeneity in the Rs for epidemics in different Nigerian regions. We find that a one-unit (mm) increase in average monthly rainfall over the past 7 months could cause a 0.62% (95% CI 0.20%–1.05%)) rise in R. There is significant spatial heterogeneity in the LF epidemics in different Nigerian regions. We report clear evidence of rainfall impacts on LF epidemics in Nigeria and quantify the impact.

scholarly journals A systematic review and meta-analysis reveal that Campylobacter spp. and antibiotic resistance are widespread in humans in sub-Saharan Africa

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0245951
Author(s):  
Delfina F. Hlashwayo ◽  
Betuel Sigaúque ◽  
Emília V. Noormahomed ◽  
Sónia M. S. Afonso ◽  
Inácio M. Mandomando ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Antibiotic Resistance ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Research Priorities ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Cochrane Library ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Pooled Prevalence ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

Introduction Campylobacter spp. are zoonotic bacteria that cause gastroenteritis in humans worldwide, whose main symptom is diarrhea. In certain cases, extra intestinal manifestations may occur, such as Guillain Barré syndrome. The bacteria cause severe diarrhea mostly in children and in immunocompromised individuals. This review aims to address the prevalence of Campylobacter spp. in humans in sub-Saharan Africa. It also aims to understand the impact of HIV in the prevalence, as well as to report data on antibiotic resistance and propose research priorities. Methods We followed PRISMA guidelines to find studies on the occurrence of Campylobacter spp. in humans in all countries from sub-Saharan Africa. Studies published between 2000 and 2020 were searched in PubMed, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, African Index Medicus, African Journals Online, Google Scholar and Science Direct. We have conducted a random-effect meta-analysis and calculated the proportion of resistant isolates to different antibiotics. Results and discussion We found 77 studies that described such occurrence in humans in 20 out of 53 sub-Saharan African countries. Campylobacter jejuni was the most prevalent species. Pooled prevalence was 9.9% (CI: 8.4%–11.6%). No major variations within the different sub-regions were found. Most studies reported Campylobacter spp. as the cause of diarrhea, mainly in children. Some studies reported the bacteria as a possible etiologic agent of acute flaccid paralysis and urinary tract infection. Campylobacter spp. presented a higher pooled prevalence in HIV infected patients, although not statistically significant. High proportions of resistant strains were reported for many antibiotics, including erythromycin and tetracycline. Conclusion Campylobacter spp. occur in sub-Saharan Africa, although information is scarce or inexistent for many countries. Research priorities should include investigation of the understudied species; extra intestinal manifestations; the impact of HIV infection and associated risk factors. Control strategies should be reinforced to contain the spread of this pathogen and drug resistance.

HIV/AIDS

2020 ◽  
pp. 901-933
Author(s):  
Sarah Fidler ◽  
Timothy E.A. Peto ◽  
Philip Goulder ◽  
Christopher P. Conlon
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
People Living With Hiv ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The People ◽  
Reduce Life Expectancy ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Living With Hiv ◽  
The Impact

Since its discovery in 1983, the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has been associated with a global pandemic that has affected more than 78 million people and caused more than 39 million deaths. Globally, 36.9 million (34.3–41.4 million) people were living with HIV at the end of 2013. An estimated 0.8% of adults aged 15–49 years worldwide are living with HIV, although the burden of the epidemic continues to vary considerably between countries and regions. Sub-Saharan Africa remains most severely affected, with nearly 1 in every 20 adults living with HIV and accounting for nearly 71% of the people living with HIV worldwide. The impact of HIV in some African countries has been sufficient to reverse population growth and reduce life expectancy into the mid-30s, although HIV incidence has declined in some of these high-prevalence countries. However, there are large-scale HIV epidemics elsewhere (e.g. India, the Russian Federation, and Eastern Europe).

scholarly journals A viral perspective on worldwide non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Philippe Rasigade ◽  
Anaïs Barray ◽  
Julie Teresa Shapiro ◽  
Charlène Coquisart ◽  
Yoann Vigouroux ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Time And Space ◽  
Minimal Set ◽  
Genomic Divergence ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractQuantifying the effectiveness of large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 is critical to adapting responses against future waves of the pandemic. Most studies of NPIs thus far have relied on epidemiological data. Here, we report the impact of NPIs on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2, taking the perspective of the virus. We examined how variations through time and space of SARS-CoV-2 genomic divergence rates, which reflect variations of the epidemic reproduction number Rt, can be explained by NPIs and combinations thereof. Based on the analysis of 5,198 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from 57 countries along with a detailed chronology of 9 non-pharmaceutical interventions during the early epidemic phase up to May 2020, we find that home containment (35% Rt reduction) and education lockdown (26%) had the strongest predicted effectiveness. To estimate the cumulative effect of NPIs, we modelled the probability of reducing Rt below 1, which is required to stop the epidemic, for various intervention combinations and initial Rt values. In these models, no intervention implemented alone was sufficient to stop the epidemic for Rt’s above 2 and all interventions combined were required for Rt’s above 3. Our approach can help inform decisions on the minimal set of NPIs required to control the epidemic depending on the current Rt value.

scholarly journals The Impact of Terrorism Activities As Threat To Unstable Economy on Foreign Direct Investments FDI: A Panel Study of 33 Sub-Saharan African Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao HongXing ◽  
Winfred Okoe Addy ◽  
Samuel Kofi Otchere ◽  
Robert Yao Aaronson ◽  
Jean-Jacques Dominique Beraud
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Linear Relationship ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

The study aims to assess the impact of terrorism activities on foreign direct investment in a panel study of 33 Sub-Saharan African countries. In order to achieve the objective of the study, it employed panel data methodologies such as GLS random-effect, ML random-effect, fixed effect regression, generalized linear model and multivariate regression methods to enable it make statistically and robust inference or conclusion. However, the study found that there is an inverse linear relationship or impact on foreign direct investment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the study found out that economic growth and foreign direct investment are inversely related and corruption control has positive and direct linear relationship with foreign direct investment. As the study focused on the linear relationship of terrorism activities and foreign direct investments, it recommends further studies into the subject-matter by employing the non-linear approaches to ascertain the non-linear relationship between the two.

scholarly journals Blood pressure-lowering medicines implemented in 12 African countries: the cross-sectional multination EIGHT study

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. e049632
Author(s):  
Pauline Cavagna ◽  
Jean Laurent Takombe ◽  
Jean Marie Damorou ◽  
Charles Kouam Kouam ◽  
Ibrahima Bara Diop ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Traditional Medicine ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Antihypertensive Medications ◽  
Large Scale Data ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Scale Data

ObjectiveIn Africa, the number of patients with hypertension is expected to reach 216.8 million by 2030. Large-scale data on antihypertensive medications used in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are scarce.Here, we describe antihypertensive drug strategies and identify treatment factors associated with blood pressure (BP) control in 12 Sub-Saharan countries.SettingOutpatient consultations for hypertension in urban tertiary cardiology centres of 29 hospitals from 17 cities across 12 SSA countries between January 2014 and November 2015.ParticipantsPatients ≥18 years of age with hypertension were enrolled at any visit during outpatient consultations in the cardiology departmentsMain outcome measureWe collected BP levels, demographic characteristics and antihypertensive treatment use (including traditional medicine) of patients with hypertension attending outpatient visits. BP control was defined as seated office BP <140/90 mm Hg. We used logistic regression with a random effect on countries to assess factors of BP control.ResultsOverall, 2198 hypertensive patients were included and a total of 96.6% (n=2123) were on antihypertensive medications. Among treated patients, 653 (30.8%) patients received a monotherapy by calcium channel blocker (n=324, 49.6%), renin–angiotensin system blocker (RAS) (n=126, 19.3%) or diuretic (n=122, 18.7%). Two-drug strategies were prescribed in 927 (43.6%) patients including mainly diuretics and RAS (n=327, 42% of two-drug strategies). Prescriptions of three-drugs or more were used in 543 (25.6%) patients. Overall, among treated patients, 1630 (76.7%) had uncontrolled BP, of whom 462 (28.3%) had BP levels ≥180/110 mm Hg, mainly in those on monotherapy. After adjustment for sociodemographic factors, the use of traditional medicine was the only factor significantly associated with uncontrolled BP (OR 1.72 (1.19 to 2.49) p<0.01).ConclusionOur study provided large-scale data on antihypertensive prescriptions in the African continent. Among patients declared adherent to drugs, poor BP control was significantly associated with the use of traditional medicine.

scholarly journals Impact Analysis of Large-Scale Environmental Spot Inspection Policy on Green Innovation: Evidence From China

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Chen ◽  
Meitong Ren ◽  
Liye Chen
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Green Innovation ◽  
Inspection Policy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Negative Spillover

The spot inspection policy has been widely applied in environmental protection in China. This paper collects environmental enforcement announcements and green patent data published by Chinese government agencies from 2006 to 2015. First, it studies the impact of spot inspection on green innovation with the spatial Durbin model. Then, it analyzes spatial heterogeneity according to the eastern, central, and western regions including 29 provinces. The spot inspection policy significantly increases the green innovation of a current region with a negative spillover effect on neighboring regions. Even though this policy has the best performance in the eastern region, it leads to pollution transfer into the western region, while being ineffective in the central region. Further, analysis on the spatial spillover effects of the 29 provinces proves that 21 provinces have a positive spillover effect, while eight provinces have a negative spillover effect. The research study shows that although spot inspection is generally beneficial to green innovation, pollution transfer and policy failure exist because of spatial heterogeneity.

scholarly journals Future Directions for Meningitis Surveillance and Vaccine Evaluation in the Meningitis Belt of Sub-Saharan Africa

2019 ◽  
Vol 220 (Supplement_4) ◽  
pp. S279-S285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan T Novak ◽  
Olivier Ronveaux ◽  
André F Bita ◽  
Honoré Flavien Aké ◽  
Fernanda C Lessa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Conjugate Vaccine ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Laboratory Diagnostics ◽  
Meningitis Belt ◽  
Significant Public Health ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In sub-Saharan Africa, bacterial meningitis remains a significant public health problem, especially in the countries of the meningitis belt, where Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A historically caused large-scale epidemics. In 2014, MenAfriNet was established as a consortium of partners supporting strategic implementation of case-based meningitis surveillance to monitor meningitis epidemiology and impact of meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MACV). MenAfriNet improved data quality through use of standardized tools, procedures, and laboratory diagnostics. MenAfriNet surveillance and study data provided evidence of ongoing MACV impact, characterized the burden of non-serogroup A meningococcal disease (including the emergence of a new epidemic clone of serogroup C), and documented the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine. New vaccines and schedules have been proposed for future implementation to address the remaining burden of meningitis. To support the goals of “Defeating Meningitis by 2030,” MenAfriNet will continue to strengthen surveillance and support research and modeling to monitor the impact of these programs on meningitis burden in sub-Saharan Africa.

scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Belarus in 2020 revealed by genomic and incidence data analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alina Nemira ◽  
Ayotomiwa Ezekiel Adeniyi ◽  
Elena L. Gasich ◽  
Kirill Y. Bulda ◽  
Leonid N. Valentovich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Sociodemographic Factors ◽  
Genomic Diversity ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
Genomic Epidemiology ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been implemented worldwide to curb COVID-19 spread. Belarus is a rare case of a country with a relatively modern healthcare system, where highly limited NPIs have been enacted. Thus, investigation of Belarusian COVID-19 dynamics is essential for the local and global assessment of the impact of NPI strategies. Methods We integrate genomic epidemiology and surveillance methods to investigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Belarus in 2020. We utilize phylodynamics, phylogeography, and probabilistic bias inference to study the virus import and export routes, the dynamics of the effective reproduction number, and the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results Here we show that the estimated cumulative number of infections by June 2020 exceeds the confirmed case number by a factor of ~4 (95% confidence interval (2; 9)). Intra-country SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity originates from at least 18 introductions from different regions, with a high proportion of regional transmissions. Phylodynamic analysis indicates a moderate reduction of the effective reproductive number after the introduction of limited NPIs, but its magnitude is lower than for developed countries with large-scale NPIs. On the other hand, the effective reproduction number estimate is comparable with that for the neighboring Ukraine, where NPIs were broader. Conclusions The example of Belarus demonstrates how countries with relatively low outward population mobility continue to be integral parts of the global epidemiological environment. Comparison of the effective reproduction number dynamics for Belarus and other countries reveals the effect of different NPI strategies but also emphasizes the role of regional Eastern European sociodemographic factors in the virus spread.

scholarly journals Impact Analysis of the Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) Policy Implementation in Jakarta

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hikmahwati Syafri ◽  
Ekasafitri Sangadji ◽  
Raden Roro Mega Utami
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Policy Implementation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Mobility Index ◽  
Policy Objectives ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Jakarta is the province with the highest population density in Indonesia and is also one of the main international gateways to enter Indonesia. These conditions cause a high risk of transmission COVID-19 in Jakarta. One of the government's decisions was applying the Large Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) policy in Jakarta. This study is a documentation study with Sabatier and Mazmanian's top-down approach that aims to analyze the extent impact of policy implementation, in terms of the policy objectives and community compliance. Compliance analysis uses the results of the Covid-19 Outbreak Survey and Google mobility index. The result shows the compliance of the community in policy implementation. The impact of the PSBB implementation can be seen from the value of the Reproduction number (Rt), which has decreased since the PSBB policy was implemented. Based on those data, it can be concluded that the implementation of the PSBB in Jakarta has been going and implemented well; thus, the consistency from the community and also local government needs to be well maintained. Abstrak. Jakarta merupakan provinsi dengan tingkat kepadatan penduduk tertinggi di Indonesia yang juga sebagai pintu keluar masuknya manusia ke Indonesia. Hal ini menyebabkan resiko penularan COVID-19 di Jakarta menjadi sangat besar. Salah satu kebijakan pemerintah adalah PSBB di DKI Jakarta. Kajian ini merupakan studi dokumentasi dengan pendekatan top-down Sabatier dan Mazmanian yang bertujuan untuk melakukan analisis sejauh mana dampak suatu implementasi kebijakan, ditinjau dari tujuan kebijakan dan kepatuhan masyarakat. Analisis kepatuhan menggunakan hasil Survei Wabah Covid-19 dan indeks mobilitas Google. Hasilnya menunjukkan kepatuhan kelompok sasaran terhadap implementasi kebijakan. Dampak implementasi PSBB dapat terlihat dari nilai Reproduction number (Rt) yang semenjak diberlakukan kebijakan nilainya selalu mengalami penurunan. Berdasarkan keseluruhan data tersebut, maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa implementasi kebijakan PSBB di Jakarta telah berlangsung dan diimplementasikan dengan baik, tinggal menanti konsistensi masyarakat dan pemerintah daerah agar dapat terjaga dengan baik.Abstrak. Jakarta merupakan provinsi dengan tingkat kepadatan penduduk tertinggi di Indonesia yang juga sebagai pintu keluar masuknya manusia ke Indonesia. Hal ini menyebabkan resiko penularan COVID-19 di Jakarta menjadi sangat besar. Salah satu kebijakan pemerintah adalah PSBB di DKI Jakarta. Kajian ini merupakan studi dokumentasi dengan pendekatan top-down Sabatier dan Mazmanian yang bertujuan untuk melakukan analisis sejauh mana dampak suatu implementasi kebijakan, ditinjau dari tujuan kebijakan dan kepatuhan masyarakat. Analisis kepatuhan menggunakan hasil Survei Wabah Covid-19 dan indeks mobilitas Google. Hasilnya menunjukkan kepatuhan kelompok sasaran terhadap implementasi kebijakan. Dampak implementasi PSBB dapat terlihat dari nilai Reproduction number (Rt) yang semenjak diberlakukan kebijakan nilainya selalu mengalami penurunan. Berdasarkan keseluruhan data tersebut, maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa implementasi kebijakan PSBB di Jakarta telah berlangsung dan diimplementasikan dengan baik, tinggal menanti konsistensi masyarakat dan pemerintah daerah agar dapat terjaga dengan baik.

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