An econometric model of the determinants of private investment and a CGE model of the impact of democracy on investment and economic growth in Fiji

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (12) ◽  
pp. 1017-1031 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paresh Kumar Narayan
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
National Welfare ◽  
Investment Function ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Democratic Country

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to construct an econometric model of the determinants of private investment with a particular focus on the impact of democracy on investment.Design/methodology/approachThe first step was to econometrically derive the long‐run elasticities; then to modify the Fiji computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to incorporate the investment function. Also the econometrically derived long run elasticities in the CGE model were used.FindingsIt was found that democracy has a positive and statistically significant impact on private investment in Fiji. The paper's simulation of Fiji becoming a fully democratic country on investment and other macroeconomic fundamentals, based on a CGE model, reveals that real gross domestic product and real national welfare increase by around 0.01 and 0.05 per cent, respectively; government savings and revenue performance improves; there is a trade balance surplus; and both private consumption and disposable income increase by around 0.05 and 0.12 per cent, respectively.Originality/valueThis is the first study that uses a CGE model to examine the impact of democracy, via investment, on other macroeconomic fundaments. No other study is known to have modelled democracy in a CGE framework.

scholarly journals The direct and indirect effect of cash transfers: the case of Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (5) ◽  
pp. 793-807
Author(s):  
Arief Anshory Yusuf
Keyword(s):  
National Economy ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Cash Transfers ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Time Dimension ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Poverty And Inequality ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of unconditional cash transfers in Indonesia on poverty and inequality while, unlike much of the previous literature on the welfare impact of such transfers, acknowledging that they will have both a direct effect and an economy-wide effect on the national economy. Design/methodology/approach The methodology used is a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Indonesian economy. The unique feature of this model, which is very relevant in this study, is the disaggregation of households by expenditure classes; this allows for precise estimation of the distributional impact and poverty incidence. Findings The results suggest that, despite a large reduction in poverty, particularly in rural areas, such transfers reduce the Indonesian GDP, especially if domestically financed through increasing the value added tax of all commodities. However, the GDP reduction can be reduced by approximately half when cash transfers are financed by reducing the distortionary fuel subsidy. Moreover, cash transfers financed by reducing the fuel subsidy also reduce inequality by much more than otherwise. Various extents of the distribution of the transfers are compared, from giving them to the poorest 10 percent to distributing them equally to all households. The benefit of the transfers, in terms of reduced poverty and inequality, is found to be smaller when the author extends the beneficiaries toward the non-poor, although the economy-wide cost, in terms of the reduced GDP, is smaller. Research limitations/implications The CGE model used in this model is a comparative-static model that does not explicitly model the time dimension, i.e. how the impact of the transfers evolves over time. This is important if we want to know the timing of the transfers and how and when they are translated into impacts. Practical implications To reduce the contractionary effect of cash transfers program, government/policy makers should carefully look for appropriate financing such as from removing subsidy with pre-existing distortions like fuel subsidies. Social implications Government needs to carefully design cash transfers to minimize the negative indirect (economy-wide) implication for the national economy and to make sure that the transfers reach the targeted beneficiaries. Originality/value Few previous studies have acknowledged the indirect economy-wide effect in analyzing the impact of cash transfers. To the author’s knowledge, this has never been done before for Indonesia. Unlike previous studies, this paper is unique as it contains sensitivity analysis on how transfers can be mistargeted and reach the non-poor and looks at the implications not only for poverty and inequality but also for the rest of the economy.

Can trade liberalisation bring benefits to the war-affected regions and create economic stability in post-war Sri Lanka?

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (12) ◽  
pp. 1710-1726
Author(s):  
Athula Naranpanawa ◽  
Jayatilleke Bandara
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Large Body ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Trade Liberalisation ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Post War

Purpose There is a large body of literature on the link between trade liberalisation, growth and poverty. However, less attention has been paid to the relationship between trade and regional disparities. The purpose of this paper is to identify and quantify the regional impacts of trade liberalisation, particularly in the war-affected regions and to understand to what extent trade reforms can contribute to the post-war recovery process and long-term economic and political stability in Sri Lanka. Design/methodology/approach The authors developed a single country multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for the Sri Lankan economy to meet the need for a detailed country study as emphasised in the recent literature. Findings Both short-run and long-run results suggest that all regions including war-affected regions in the country gain from trade liberalisation, although gains are uneven across regions. Furthermore, the results suggest that war-affected regions gain more relative to some other regions in the long run. Originality/value According to the best of the authors’ knowledge within country regional impact of trade liberalisation using a multi-regional CGE model has never been attempted for Sri Lanka. The results of this study, even though based on Sri Lankan data, will be relevant to other developing countries engulfed in internal conflicts with regional economic disparities.

Mining booms and growth in Laos – empirical result from CGE model

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phouphet Kyophilavong
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This study aims to lay out a framework to quantify the impacts of mining booms on the macro-economy in Laos. Design/methodology/approach A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to investigate the impact of the mining sector on the Laos’ economy by examining this sector’s increase in both stock and the productivity of capital. Findings It was found that higher capital stock and productivity lead to increased value added, production, exports and investment in the mining sector. These increases result in higher real gross domestic product, exports and investment. Unfortunately, the effects from the associated Dutch disease negatively impact real production and value added in the agriculture and industry. Suitable macroeconomic management and prudent administration of the windfall income from mining are therefore important. Practical implications The finding is important for policymakers to implement policy to deal with the negative impact of mining booms. Originality/value It is the first study to attempt to investigate the impact of the mining sector on the Lao economy using the CGE model. Second, we also provide recommendation to cope with the negative impact from mining booms which provide important implications for other developing countries that face the negative impact from mining booms.

Best-value supply chains and firms’ competitive performance: empirical studies of their linkage

2015 ◽  
Vol 35 (12) ◽  
pp. 1688-1709 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xun Li ◽  
Qun Wu ◽  
Clyde W. Holsapple
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chains ◽  
Competitive Advantage ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Competitive Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Best Value ◽  
Multiple Method ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – Best-value supply chains characterized by agility, adaptability, and alignment, have become a crucial strategic means for firms to create and sustain competitive advantage in today’s turbulent environment. The purpose of this paper is to investigate linkage between best-value supply chains and firms’ competitive performance. Design/methodology/approach – In Study 1, survey data from 76 firms is used to test the impact of the three qualities of best-value supply chains on firms’ competitive performance. In Study 2, to test if a firm’s competitive advantage can be sustained through building best-value supply chains, a long-run performance analysis is conducted, which is based on a stock portfolio of firms identified from the American Marketing Association’s annual list of “Supply Chain Top 25.” Findings – The results of Study 1 indicate that the three qualities of best-value supply chains are positively related to firms’ competitive performance. The results of Study 2 show that firms having best-value supply chains generate significant and positive abnormal returns for shareholders over time. Originality/value – This is a multiple-method research, providing two-level empirical evidence to the investigation of theoretical linkage between best-value supply chains and firms’ competitive performance.

Foreign capital inflows and economic growth: the experience of low-income countries in Sub Saharan Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Atif Awad
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Foreign Capital Inflows ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the long-run impact of selected foreign capital inflows, including aid, remittances, foreign direct investment (FDI), trade and debt, on the economic growth of 21 low-income countries in the Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) region, during the period 1990–2018. Design/methodology/approach To obtain this objective and for robust analysis, a parametric approach, which was dynamic ordinary least squares, and a non-parametric technique, which was fully modified ordinary least squares, were used. Findings The results of both models confirmed that, in the long run, trade and aid affected the growth rate of the per capita income in these countries in a positive way. However, external debt seemed to have an adverse influence on such growth. Originality/value First, this is the initial study that has addressed this matter across a homogenous group of countries in the SSA region. Second, while most of the previous studies regarding capital inflows into the SSA region have focused on the impact of only one or two aspects of such foreign capital inflows on growth, the present study, instead, examined the impact of five types of foreign capital inflows (aid, remittances, FDI, trade and debt).

Macroeconomic determinants of trade openness: empirical investigation of SAARC region

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tahir ◽  
SAF Hasnu ◽  
Mario Ruiz Estrada
Keyword(s):  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Trade openness plays a significant role in the growth process of countries. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of macroeconomic determinants on the trade openness of countries. Design/methodology/approach The study focuses on the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) member countries and the data used were from 1971 to 2011. Panel data econometrics techniques and two stages least square method (TSLS) are used to carry out empirical analysis and robustness testing. Findings The main finding of the paper is that macroeconomic determinants such as investment both in physical and human capital and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) positively affect trade openness. Further, the size of labour force and currency exchange rate has also impacted trade openness negatively and significantly. Practical implications It implies that efficient macroeconomic management matters for higher trade openness. The sampled developing countries are suggested to pay favourable attention to macroeconomic variables if they want to grow in the long run through outward-oriented policies. Originality/value This paper is an original contribution in the context of SAARC countries by focusing on the relationship between macroeconomic determinants and trade openness.

scholarly journals Tourism taxes and negative externalities in tourism in australia: A CGE approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 200-214
Author(s):  
Ranjith Ihalanayake
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Negative Externalities ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Australian Economy ◽  
Short Run

In this paper we analyse general equilibrium effects of an increase in a tourism tax which we hypothetically designed to internalise negative externalities of international tourism in Australia. Several simulations were carried out using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Australian economy. The simulations were carried out assuming two different economic environments, the short-run and the long-run. The simulation results suggest that due to an increase in tourism taxes, the international tourism sector tends to contract while the other sectors expand. Overall, an increase in tourism taxes appears to be welfare improving in the long-run though it generates a marginal contraction in overall economic activities in the short run.

scholarly journals DAMPAK KERJA SAMA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA DENGAN EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION (EAEU) TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-180
Author(s):  
Deky Paryadi ◽  
Aziza Rahmaniar Salam
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Comparative Advantages ◽  
Vegetable Foodstuffs ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Eurasian Region ◽  
Elimination Scheme

 Abstrak Kawasan Eurasia merupakan wilayah yang penting secara geopolitik dan geostrategi bagi perdagangan Indonesia. Melihat potensi yang dimiliki oleh negara-negara yang tergabung dalam Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Indonesia diharapkan dapat memanfaatkan peluang yang terbuka. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui potensi daya saing komoditas serta dampak kerja sama perdagangan Indonesia-EAEU. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah Trade Complementary Index (TCI), Revealed Symetric Comparative Advantages (RSCA) dan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model dengan data dasar GTAP versi 9 menggunakan enam simulasi. Berdasarkan analisis TCI, tingkat kesesuaian ekspor EAEU terhadap struktur impor Indonesia lebih tinggi dibandingkan ekspor Indonesia terhadap struktur impor EAEU. Dengan melihat dampak kerja sama perdagangan Indonesia-EAEU terhadap makroekonomi Indonesia, penurunan tarif bea masuk sebesar 50% untuk seluruh produk Indonesia dan EAEU merupakan alternatif kebijakan terbaik. Indonesia perlu menjajaki kemungkinan kerja sama dengan EAEU dengan pendekatan berupa eliminasi 50% pada seluruh pos tarif secara bertahap. Selain itu, disarankan Indonesia fokus pada komoditas yang memiliki daya saing di pasar EAEU yaitu sektor animal; vegetable; foodstuffs; plastics/ rubber; raw hides; woods; textile; stone/glass; machinery; dan transportation.AbstractThe Eurasian region is an important area for Indonesia in term of geopolitic and geostrategy. Due to the economic potential of EAEU countries, Indonesia must take advantage of it. This study aims to determine the potential competitiveness of commodities and the impact of trade cooperation between Indonesia-EAEU. Methods used in this study were Trade Complementary Index (TCI), Revealed Symetric Comparative Advantages (RSCA) and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model utilizing basic data of GTAP version 9 of six simulations. By using TCI method it was found that the comformity level of EAEU's export to Indonesia's import structure is higher than Indonesia's exports to the EAEU import structure. Looking at the impact of Indonesia-EAEU trade cooperation on Indonesia’s economy, tariff reduction of 50% for all Indonesian products and EAEU is the best policy alternative for Indonesia. Therefore, It is a must to Indonesia to explore the possibility of cooperation with EAEU with a 50% elimination scheme gradually to all tariff lines. Indonesia should also focus on commodities which have competitiveness in EAEU market i.e. animal; vegetable; foodstuffs; plastics/rubber; raw hides; woods; textile; stone/glass; machinery; and transportation.

Macroeconomic shocks, fragility and home financing in Malaysia: can rental index be the answer?

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosylin Mohd Yusof ◽  
Farrell Hazsan Usman ◽  
Akhmad Affandi Mahfudz ◽  
Ahmad Suki Arif
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Rental Rate ◽  
Conventional Banks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Conventional And Islamic Banks

Purpose This study aims to investigate the interactions among macroeconomic variable shocks, banking fragility and home financing provided by conventional and Islamic banks in Malaysia. Identifying the causes of financial instability and the effects of macroeconomic shocks can help to foil the onset of future financial turbulence. Design/methodology/approach The autoregressive distributed lag bound-testing cointegration approach, impulse response functions (IRFs) and forecast error variance decomposition are used in this study to unravel the long-run and short-run dynamics among the selected macroeconomic variables and amount of home financing offered by both conventional and Islamic banks. In addition, the study uses Granger causality tests to investigate the short-run causalities among the selected variables to further understand the impact of one macroeconomic shock to Islamic and conventional home financing. Findings This study provides evidence that macroeconomic shocks have different long-run and short-run effects on amount of home financing offered by conventional and Islamic banks. Both in the long run and short run, home financing provided by Islamic banks is more linked to real sector economy and thus is more stable as compared to home financing provided by conventional banks. The Granger causality test reveals that only gross domestic product (GDP), Kuala Lumpur Syariah Index (KLSI)/Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) and house price index (HPI) are found to have a statistically significant causal relationship with home financing offered by both conventional and Islamic banks. Unlike the case of Islamic banks, conventional home financing is found to have a unidirectional causality with interest rates. Research limitations/implications This study has focused on analyzing the macroeconomic shocks on home financing. However, this study does not assess the impact of financial deregulation and enhanced information technology on amount of financing offered by both conventional and Islamic banks. In addition, it is not within the ambit of this present study to examine the effects of agency costs and information asymmetry. Practical implications The analysis of cointegration and IRFs exhibits that in the long run and short run, home financing provided by Islamic banks are more linked to real sector economy like GDP and House Prices (HPI) and therefore more resilient to economic vulnerabilities as compared to home financing provided by conventional banks. However, in the long run, both conventional and Islamic banks are more susceptible to fluctuations in interest rates. The results of the study suggest that monetary policy ramifications to improve banking fragility should focus on stabilizing interest rates or finding an alternative that is free from interest. Social implications Because interest plays a significant role in pricing of home loans, the potential of an alternative such as rental rate is therefore timely and worth the effort to investigate further. Therefore, Islamic banks can explore the possibility of pricing home financing based on rental rate as proposed in this study. Originality/value This paper examines the unresolved issues in Islamic home financing where Islamic banks still benchmark their products especially home financing, to interest rates in dual banking system such as in the case of Malaysia. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, studies conducted in this area are meager and therefore is imperative to be examined.

scholarly journals Are some taxes better for growth in Pakistan? A time series analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (10) ◽  
pp. 1439-1452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashif Munir ◽  
Maryam Sultan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Sales Tax ◽  
Tax Base ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Indirect Taxes ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of taxes on economic growth in the long run as well as in the short run. Design/methodology/approach The study uses simple time series model, where real GDP is dependent variable and different forms of taxes are explanatory variables under ARDL framework from 1976 to 2014 at annual frequency for Pakistan. Findings Direct taxes have positive relation with economic growth in the long run. Sales tax, tax on international trade (tariffs) and other indirect taxes have positive impact on economic growth of Pakistan in the long run as well as in the short run. However, sales tax and other indirect taxes impact negatively on economic growth in the short run after one year because people realize decline in their real income. Practical implications Government should increase direct taxes by increasing tax base. Indirect taxes usually indicate negative impact after one and two years; therefore, government should decrease its reliance on indirect taxes. Government should promote tax awareness among the people which increase the tax morale of people and increase the tax base. Originality/value Taxes are disaggregated into direct and indirect taxes, while indirect taxes have been further disaggregated into excise duty, sales tax, surcharges, tax on international trade and other indirect taxes. This study provides useful insight for policy makers in designing taxes and their effect on growth.

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