Archival research considerations for CRSP data

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 360-370
Author(s):  
Rick N. Francis ◽  
Grace Mubako ◽  
Lori Olsen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Doctoral Students ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Promotion And Tenure ◽  
Statistical Inferences ◽  
Technical Competency ◽  
Adjustment Factors ◽  
Rights Offering

Purpose This study aims to remind researchers that measurement errors and inappropriate inferences may result from improperly combining and adjusting certain Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) measures. Design/methodology/approach In addition to real-world working examples, the study uses earnings announcements data to examine the effects of improperly combining and adjusting CRSP measures. Findings This study assists researchers with the following two considerations when using CRSP data: stand-alone share prices adjusted with CRSP adjustment factors are inaccurate in the presence of property dividend, spin-off and rights offering events; and ignoring covertly missing stock returns may create misleading test results. The primary objectives of the study are to help researchers increase the integrity of their studies and the probability of publication. Research limitations/implications Inadequate consideration for the two issues discussed in the paper may change the researcher’s statistical inferences. Originality/value Archival researchers who overtly address and discuss the existence of these issues achieve two important and related benefits. First, the researcher increases his or her credibility with editors and reviewers, which enhances the probability of a published study. Second, the researcher increases his or her perceived technical competency, which potentially affects promotion and tenure decisions, editorial membership decisions, co-authorship opportunities and other professional effects. Doctoral students will find this study to be particularly useful.

Behavioral-related firm characteristics, risks and determinants of stock returns

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-112
Author(s):  
Wikrom Prombutr ◽  
Chanwit Phengpis
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Portfolio Analysis ◽  
Firm Characteristics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient ◽  
Stock Portfolio ◽  
Investment Growth

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate a relatively new anomaly of investment growth and revisits well-known anomalies of size and value. It aims to answer two main research questions. First, can covariance risks (i.e. factor loadings) be excluded from being determining variables that drive return premiums and explain stock returns? Second, from a behavioral finance standpoint, the authors examine whether using firm characteristics is a more practical and accessible approach and also meets the necessary and sufficient conditions to analyze stock returns.Design/methodology/approachThe authors create the investment-growth-based factor (LMH) which is defined as the return difference between low and high investment growth portfolios. The authors then incorporate the LMH factor along with other characteristic-based factors and their loadings into characteristic-balanced portfolio and three-factor model tests.FindingsThe authors find that covariance risks on investment growth, size and value are not necessary as determining variables. Instead, they find that behavioral-related firm characteristics of investment growth, size and value are necessary and sufficient as determinants of return premiums and stock returns.Practical implicationsThe results have practical and useful implications for investors in their stock portfolio analysis and selection because firm characteristics are relatively more available than covariance risks that need estimation and typically contain measurement errors.Originality/valueThe paper has practical value to investors in their stock portfolio analysis and selection. Methodologically, in contrast to prior studies that do not directly use the investment growth to control for portfolio characteristics, the use of the newly created LMH factor and its loadings allows us to directly and properly test if the investment growth anomaly is related to the investment growth characteristic that is hypothesized to drive return premiums and determine stock returns from behavioral finance perspectives.

scholarly journals Real activities manipulation by bidders prior to mergers and acquisitions

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 322-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javeria Farooqi ◽  
Thanh Ngo ◽  
Surendranath Jory
Keyword(s):  
Mergers And Acquisitions ◽  
Earnings Management ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Real Activities Manipulation ◽  
Return Method

Purpose This study aims to examine the ability of investors to process signs of real activities manipulations at bidder firms in the quarters leading to the announcement of a merger. It further provides a supplementary explanation for the post-merger underperformance puzzle. Design/methodology/approach Examining a sample of cash-only, stock swap and mixed mergers completed between 1980 and 2011, it was found that bidder firms increase the use of real activities manipulation in the quarters leading up to the merger announcements. Using average abnormal stock return method, it is shown that the short-term positive effect of real activities manipulation on share prices is stronger than accrual-based earnings management. Findings While bidders are able to escape investors’ scrutiny in the short run, it is not the case in the long run. It was found that bidders’ long-run stock performance, measured by matched buy-and-hold stock returns, is inversely related to their pre-announcement level of earnings management. This paper contributes to the literature on earnings management by considering how real activities manipulations affect stock prices in mergers and acquisitions. Originality/value This study tests whether real activities manipulation, in addition to accrual-based earnings management, explains the underperformance puzzle of the acquiring firms in M&As. Zang (2012) argues that there is a greater likelihood for firms to engage in real activities manipulation, especially when firms are constrained in their use of accrual-based earnings management owing to heightened scrutiny or overuse in prior years.

Discretionary Risk Disclosures

2003 ◽  
Vol 78 (2) ◽  
pp. 449-469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bjorn N. Jorgensen ◽  
Michael T. Kirschenheiter
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Voluntary Disclosure ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Risk Disclosure ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Partial Disclosure ◽  
Future Cash Flows

We model managers' equilibrium strategies for voluntarily disclosing information about their firm's risk. We consider a multifirm setting in which the variance of each firm's future cash flow is uncertain. A manager can disclose, at a cost, this variance before offering the firm for sale in a competitive stock market with risk-averse investors. In our partial disclosure equilibrium, managers voluntarily disclose if their firm has a low variance of future cash flows, but withhold the information if their firm has highly variable future cash flows. We establish how the manager's discretionary risk disclosure affects the firm's share price, expected stock returns, and beta, within the framework of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. We show that whereas one manager's discretionary disclosure of his firm's risk does not affect other firms' share prices, it does affect the other firms' betas. Also, we demonstrate that a disclosing firm has lower risk premium and beta ex post than a nondisclosing firm. Finally, we show that ex ante, the expected risk premium and expected beta of each firm are higher under a mandatory risk disclosure regime than in the partial disclosure equilibrium that arises under a voluntary disclosure regime.

Risk-Relevance of Fair-Value Income Measures for Commercial Banks

2006 ◽  
Vol 81 (2) ◽  
pp. 337-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leslie D. Hodder ◽  
Patrick E. Hopkins ◽  
James M. Wahlen
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Income Volatility ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Market Pricing ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Comprehensive Income

We investigate the risk relevance of the standard deviation of three performance measures: net income, comprehensive income, and a constructed measure of full-fair-value income for a sample of 202 U.S. commercial banks from 1996 to 2004. We find that, for the average sample bank, the volatility of full-fair-value income is more than three times that of comprehensive income and more than five times that of net income. We find that the incremental volatility in full-fair-value income (beyond the volatility of net income and comprehensive income) is positively related to marketmodel beta, the standard deviation in stock returns, and long-term interest-rate beta. Further, we predict and find that the incremental volatility in full-fair-value income (1) negatively moderates the relation between abnormal earnings and banks' share prices and (2) positively affects the expected return implicit in bank share prices. Our findings suggest full-fair-value income volatility reflects elements of risk that are not captured by volatility in net income or comprehensive income, and relates more closely to capital-market pricing of that risk than either net-income volatility or comprehensiveincome volatility.

Information risk, stock returns, and asset pricing: Evidence from China

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 379-394 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raheel Safdar ◽  
Chen Yan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Market Pricing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Information Risk ◽  
Accruals Quality ◽  
Three Factor

Purpose This study aims to investigate information risk in relation to stock returns of a firm and whether information risk is priced in China. Design/methodology/approach The authors used accruals quality (AQ) as their measure of information risk and performed Fama-Macbeth regressions to investigate association of AQ with future realized stock returns. Moreover, two-stage cross-sectional regression analysis was performed, both at firm level and at portfolio level, to test if the AQ factor is priced in China in addition to existing factors in the Fama French three-factor model. Findings The authors found poor AQ being associated with higher future realized stock returns. Moreover, they found evidence of market pricing of AQ in addition to existing factors in the Fama French three-factor model. Further, subsample analysis revealed that investors value AQ more in non-state owned enterprises than in state owned enterprises. Research limitations/implications The study sample comprises A-shares only and the generalization of the findings is limited by the peculiar institutional and economic setup in China. Originality/value This study contributes to market-based accounting literature by providing further insight into how and if investors value information risk, and it seeks to fill gap in empirical literature by providing evidence from the Chinese capital market.

Regulation and information asymmetry

2008 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robyn McLaughlin ◽  
Assem Safieddine
Keyword(s):  
Information Asymmetry ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Operating Performance ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Information Asymmetries ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Industrial Firms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regulated Utilities

PurposeThis paper seeks to examine the potential for regulation to reduce information asymmetries between firm insiders and outside investors.Design/methodology/approachExtensive prior research has established that there are substantial effects of information asymmetry in seasoned equity offers (SEOs). The paper tests for a mitigating effect of regulation on such information asymmetries by examining differences in long‐run operating performance, changes in that performance, and announcement‐period stock returns between unregulated industrial firms and regulated utilities that issue seasoned equity. The authors also segment the samples by firm size, since smaller firms are likely to have greater asymmetries.FindingsConsistent with regulated utility firms having lower levels of information asymmetry, they have superior changes in abnormal operating performance than industrial firms pre‐ to post‐issue and their announcement period returns are significantly less negative. These findings are most pronounced for the smallest firms, firms likely to have the greatest information asymmetries and where regulation could have its greatest effect.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper does not examine costs of regulation. Thus, future research could seek to measure the cost/benefit trade‐off of regulation in reducing information asymmetry. Also, future research could examine cross‐sectional differences between different industries and regulated utilities.Practical implicationsRegulation reduces information asymmetry. Thus, regulation or mandated disclosure may be appropriate in industries/markets where information asymmetry is severe.Originality/valueThis paper is the first to compare the operating performance of regulated and unregulated SEO firms.

Does uncertainty boost overconfidence? The case of financial analysts' forecasts

2014 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 300-324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Véronique Bessière ◽  
Taoufik Elkemali
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Private Information ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Forecast Dispersion ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Announcement ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Sectional Analysis

Purpose – This article aims to examine the link between uncertainty and analysts' reaction to earnings announcements for a sample of European firms during the period 1997-2007. In the same way as Daniel et al., the authors posit that overconfidence leads to an overreaction to private information followed by an underreaction when the information becomes public. Design/methodology/approach – In this study, the authors test analysts' overconfidence through the overreaction preceding a public announcement followed by an underreaction after the announcement. If overconfidence occurs, over- and underreactions should be, respectively, observed before and after the public announcement. If uncertainty boosts overconfidence, the authors predict that these two combined misreactions should be stronger when uncertainty is higher. Uncertainty is defined according to technology intensity, and separate two types of firms: high-tech or low-tech. The authors use a sample of European firms during the period 1997-2007. Findings – The results support the overconfidence hypothesis. The authors jointly observe the two phenomena of under- and overreaction. Overreaction occurs when the information has not yet been made public and disappears just after public release. The results also show that both effects are more important for the high-tech subsample. For robustness, the authors sort the sample using analyst forecast dispersion as a proxy for uncertainty and obtain similar results. The authors also document that the high-tech stocks crash in 2000-2001 moderated the overconfidence of analysts, which then strongly declined during the post-crash period. Originality/value – This study offers interesting insights in two ways. First, in the area of financial markets, it provides a test of a major over- and underreaction model and implements it to analysts' reactions through their revisions (versus investors' reactions through stock returns). Second, in a broader way, it deals with the link between uncertainty and biases. The results are consistent with the experimental evidence and extend it to a cross-sectional analysis that reinforces it as pointed out by Kumar.

The performance of the Broad Based Black Economic Empowerment compliant listed property firms in South Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omokolade Akinsomi ◽  
Katlego Kola ◽  
Thembelihle Ndlovu ◽  
Millicent Motloung
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Sharpe Ratio ◽  
Economic Empowerment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Black Economic ◽  
Black Economic Empowerment ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE) on the risk and returns of listed and delisted property firms on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The study was investigated to understand the impact of Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) property sector charter and effect of government intervention on property listed markets. Design/methodology/approach – The study examines the performance trends of the listed and delisted property firms on the JSE from January 2006 to January 2012. The data were obtained from McGregor BFA database to compute the risk and return measures of the listed and delisted property firms. The study employs a capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to derive the alpha (outperformance) and beta (risk) to examine the trend amongst the BEE and non-BEE firms, Sharpe ratio was also employed as a measurement of performance. A comparative study is employed to analyse the risks and returns between listed property firms that are BEE compliant and BEE non-compliant. Findings – Results show that there exists differences in returns and risk between BEE-compliant firms and non-BEE-compliant firms. The study shows that BEE-compliant firms have higher returns than non-BEE firms and are less risky than non-BEE firms. By establishing this relationship, this possibly affects the investor’s decision to invest in BEE firms rather than non-BBBEE firms. This study can also assist the government in strategically adjusting the policy. Research limitations/implications – This study employs a CAPM which is a single-factor model. Further study could employ a multi-factor model. Practical implications – The results of this investigation, with the effects of BEE on returns, using annualized returns, the Sharpe ratio and alpha (outperformance), results show that BEE firms perform better than non-BEE firms. These results pose several implications for investors particularly when structuring their portfolios, further study would need to examine the role of BEE on stock returns in line with other factors that affect stock returns. The results in this study have several implications for government agencies, there may be the need to monitor the effect of the BEE policies on firm returns and re-calibrate policies accordingly. Originality/value – This study investigates the performance of listed property firms on the JSE which are BEE compliant. This is the first study to investigate listed property firms which are BEE compliant.

Estimating defaults in organized security lending markets

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 343-362
Author(s):  
Latif Cem Osken ◽  
Ceylan Onay ◽  
Gözde Unal
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Counterparties ◽  
Risk Determinants

Purpose This paper aims to analyze the dynamics of the security lending process and lending markets to identify the market-wide variables reflecting the characteristics of the stock borrowed and to measure the credit risk arising from lending contracts. Design/methodology/approach Using the data provided by Istanbul Settlement and Custody Bank on the equity lending contracts of Securities Lending and Borrowing Market between 2010 and 2012 and the data provided by Borsa Istanbul on Equity Market transactions for the same timeframe, this paper analyzes whether stock price volatility, stock returns, return per unit amount of risk and relative liquidity of lending market and equity market affect the defaults of lending contracts by using both linear regression and ordinary least squares regression for robustness and proxying the concepts of relative liquidity, volatility and return constructs by more than variable to correlate findings. Findings The results illustrate a statistically significant relationship between volatility and the default state of the lending contracts but fail to establish a connection between default states and stock returns or relative liquidity of markets. Research limitations/implications With the increasing pressure for clearing security lending contracts in central counterparties, it is imperative for both central counterparties and regulators to be able to precisely measure the risk exposure due to security lending transactions. The results gained from a limited set of lending transactions merit further studies to identify non-borrower and non-systemic credit risk determinants. Originality/value This is the first study to analyze the non-borrower and non-systemic credit risk determinants in security lending markets.

Portfolio revision and optimal diversification strategy choices

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 537-564
Author(s):  
Mourad Mroua ◽  
Fathi Abid
Keyword(s):  
Transaction Costs ◽  
Tracking Error ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Selection Strategy ◽  
Revision Procedure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Efficient Frontiers ◽  
Statistical Inferences ◽  
Diversification Strategies ◽  
International Portfolios

Purpose – Since equity markets have a dynamic nature, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of a revision procedure for domestic and international portfolios, and provides an empirical selection strategy for optimal diversification from an American investor's point of view. This paper considers the impact of estimation errors on the optimization processes in financial portfolios. Design/methodology/approach – This paper introduces the concept of portfolio resampling using Monte Carlo method. Statistical inferences methodology is applied to construct the sample acceptance regions and confidence regions for the resampled portfolios needing revision. Tracking error variance minimization (TEVM) problem is used to define the tracking error efficient frontiers (TEEF) referring to Roll (1992). This paper employs a computation method of the periodical after revision return performance level of the dynamic diversification strategies considering the transaction cost. Findings – The main finding is that the global portfolio diversification benefits exist for the domestic investors, in both the mean-variance and tracking error analysis. Through TEEF, the dynamic analysis indicates that domestic dynamic diversification outperforms international major and emerging diversification strategies. Portfolio revision appears to be of no systematic benefit. Depending on the revision of the weights of the assets in the portfolio and the transaction costs, the revision policy can negatively affect the performance of an investment strategy. Considering the transaction costs of portfolios revision, the results of the return performance computation suggest the dominance of the global and the international emerging markets diversification over all other strategies. Finally, an assessment between the return and the cost of the portfolios revision strategy is necessary. Originality/value – The innovation of this paper is to introduce a new concept of the dynamic portfolio management by considering the transaction costs. This paper investigates the performance of a revision procedure for domestic and international portfolios and provides an empirical selection strategy for optimal diversification. The originality of the idea consists on the application of a new statistical inferences methodology to define portfolios needing revision and the use of the TEVM algorithm to define the tracking error dynamic efficient frontiers.

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