Developing a tailored RBS linking to BIM for risk management of bridge projects

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 727-750 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Zou ◽  
Arto Kiviniemi ◽  
Stephen W. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Traditional Method ◽  
Information Model ◽  
Risk Information ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quantitative Risk Analysis ◽  
Technical Systems

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to address the current theoretical gap in integrating knowledge and experience into Building Information Model (BIM) for risk management of bridge projects by developing a tailored Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) and formalising an active link between the resulting RBS and BIM. Design/methodology/approach A three-step approach is used in this study to develop a tailored RBS for bridge projects and a conceptual model for the linkage between the RBS and BIM. First, the integrated bridge information model is in concept separated into four levels of contents (LOCs) and six technical systems based on analysis of the Industry Foundation Classes specification, a critical review of previous studies and authors’ project experience. The second step develops a knowledge-based risk database through an extensive collection of risk data, a process of data mining, and further assessment and translation of data. A critical analysis is conducted in the last step to determine on which level the different risks should be allocated to bridge projects and to propose a conceptual model for linking the tailored RBS to the four LOCs and six technical systems of BIM. Findings The findings suggest that the traditional method and BIM can be merged as an integrated solution for risk management by establishing the linkage between RBS and BIM. This solution can take advantage of both the traditional method and BIM for managing risks. On the one hand, RBS enables risk information to be stored in a formal structure, used and communicated effectively. On the other hand, some features of BIM such as 3D visualisation and 4D construction scheduling can facilitate the risk identification, analysis, and communication at an early project stage. Research limitations/implications A limitation is that RBS is a qualitative technique and only plays a limited role in quantitative risk analysis. As a result, when implementing this proposed method, further techniques may be needed for assisting quantitative risk analysis, evaluation, and treatment. Another limitation is that the proposed method has not yet been implemented for validation in practice. Hence, recommendations for future research are to: improve the quantitative risk analysis and treatment capabilities of this proposed solution; develop computer tools to support the solution; integrate the linkage into a traditional workflow; and test this solution in some small and large projects for validation. Practical implications Through linking risk information to BIM, project participants could check and review the linked information for identifying potential risks and seeking possible mitigation measures, when project information is being transferred between different people or forwarded to the next phase. Originality/value This study contributes to the theoretical development for aligning traditional methods and BIM for risk management, by introducing a new conceptual model for linking RBS to BIM.

Analysis of risk concept for technical systems using digital twins

2020 ◽  
pp. 99-113
Author(s):  
Анатолий Михайлович Лепихин ◽  
Николай Андреевич Махутов ◽  
Юрий Иванович Шокин ◽  
Андрей Васильевич Юрченко
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Computer Modelling ◽  
Product Lifecycle Management ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Digital Twins ◽  
Real Objects ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
Active Research

Рассмотрены основные методологические аспекты анализа рисков технических систем с использованием цифровых двойников. Сформулирована концепция рисканализа и предложена базовая модель для ее реализации. Рассмотрены информационные аспекты анализа неопределенностей модели риска. Показано, что технологии цифровых двойников позволяют эффективно сочетать результаты компьютерного моделирования с данными мониторинга реальных объектов, обеспечивая более глубокий анализ объектов, с учетом множества вариантов конструкции, технологий и условий эксплуатации Development of technology and technical systems significantly increases in the volume of information. Traditional methods for designing, manufacturing and operating of technical systems do not allow processing such volumes of information. In this regard, the modern strategy for creating technical systems is based on the use of digital twins. Solving the problems of risk analysis and risk management for technical systems at all stages of the life cycle appears to be one of the promising areas for application of the digital twins technology. Despite of active research, using digital twins in risk analysis currently do not have appropriate methodological justifications and technical solutions in a number of key aspects. In particular, effective reductions of the order of risk models and quantifying uncertainty factors of various types have not been solved. The concept of the risk-informed decision making in product lifecycle management has not been implemented. In fact, there are very few publications on the risk analysis and risk management methodology using digital twins. The article discusses the main methodological aspects of risk analysis of technical systems using digital twins. The concept of risk analysis is formulated and a basic model for its implementation is proposed. The informational aspects of the analysis of uncertainties of the risk model are considered. It is shown that digital twin technologies allow effective combination of the results of computer modelling with the data monitoring of real objects, providing a deeper analysis of objects, taking into account a variety of design options, technologies and operating conditions.

Artificial intelligence treating the problem of uncertainty in quantitative risk analysis (QRA)

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-54
Author(s):  
Mohamed Seddik Hellas ◽  
Rachid Chaib ◽  
Ion Verzea
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Lung Damage ◽  
Whole Body ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quantitative Risk Analysis ◽  
Accident Scenario ◽  
Imperfect Knowledge

Purpose Nowadays, artificial intelligence computational methods, such as knowledge-based systems, neural networks, genetic algorithms and fuzzy logic, have been increasingly applied to several industrial research studies, the purpose of this paper is to study the contribution of fuzzy and possibilistic techniques to quantitative risk analysis (QRA) in the presence of imperfect knowledge about the occurrence and consequences of accidental phenomena. Design/methodology/approach To solve the problem of uncertainties related to the elements of the accident scenario such as the frequency and severity of the consequences, the authors used fuzzy logic. Using this type of analysis, it is possible to visualize the contours of the dead or fuzzy injury by fireball thermal effect (first- and second-degree burn, death) and lesions caused by vapor cloud explosion overpressure (lung damage, eardrum rupture, head impact, whole-body displacement). The frequency and severity of fuzzy results are calculated by extended multiplication using the alpha-cuts method. Findings This research project aims to reflect the real situation in the in Amenas industrial area (SONATRACH company), specifically the liquefied petroleum gas storage tank On-Spec 05-V-411A, to deal with this type of risk. Using this analysis allows us to estimate the fuzzy individual risk using the approach of fuzzy logic to treating this uncertainty in the parameter information of accident scenarios. This index individuel risk (IR) was evaluated against the criterion of acceptability and then used for decision-making in the field of industrial risk analysis and evaluation. Originality/value The originality of the work is to identify the weak points of the classical QRA to solve the problem of the uncertainties related to the elements of the accident scenario such as the frequency and severity of the consequences to visualize the fuzzy risk contours. On the one hand and the development of software to calculate the probability of death by the overpressure effect and classify the most sensitive organs on the other hand. Given the importance of this study, it can be generalized for similar sites in the region.

scholarly journals The UAVs threat to airport security: risk analysis and mitigation

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 63 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Pyrgies
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Airport Security ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Risk Matrix ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Different Sources

Purpose: This research studies the UAV incidents in the vicinity of worldwide airports in order to deliver a quantitative and qualitative analysis of this phaenomenon, to analyse the risks associated to this threat and propose mitigation measures that brings this risk to an ‘acceptable’ level.Methodology: A population of 139 ‘serious UAV incidents in the vicinity of worldwide airports’ has been constituted on the basis of the FAA and NASA databases and articles published on the Web by online media. This phaenomenon has then been analysed quantitatively using descriptive statistics techniques and qualitatively by analysing in-depth some representative incidents. A risk analysis has then been performed based on the FAA Safety Risk Management 5-steps process to identify the hazards i.e. the root causes of those UAV incidents, determine their outcome i.e. negative consequences that jeopardize airports objectives and assign them a severity level and likelihood i.e. frequency level. Analysed risks have then been assessed based on FAA ARP Risk Matrix. Mitigation measures (prevention, deterrence, denial, detection, neutralisation) have been identified following a ‘Defence-in-Depth’ approach.Findings: The findings of the study are that those UAV incidents are more numerous than anticipated and happen higher and further from the airports than expected: they happen not only in CTRs but also in TMAs. This has an impact on the mitigation measures that shall not only be deployed at airports side but also be on-boarded in manned aircrafts.Originality: To our knowledge, no study has combined different sources to constitute such a population focused on ‘serious’ UAVs incidents around airports worldwide, has applied the official FAA Safety Risk Management process to assess this risk and followed a structured ‘Defence-in-Depth’ approach typically used in Cybersecurity to mitigate this risk.Keywords: Airport security and safety, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) threat, Risk analysis and mitigation, Counter-UAVs technologies.

Risk Management at Operation of Dangerous Technical Systems on the Basis of Non-Destructive Control

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-27
Author(s):  
Vladimir Akatev ◽  
E. Metelkin ◽  
E. Barysheva ◽  
A. Akat'ev
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Minimum Cost ◽  
Technical Condition ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Management Algorithm ◽  
Level Increase ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
Non Destructive

Questions related to accidents prevention based on non-destructive control of critical defects, functioning dangerous technical systems with high wear levels, as well as to substantiation of measures for step-by-step risk mitigation of the specified systems after their stop have been considered. For security upgrade relating to operation of potentially dangerous technical systems under resources restrictions are applied measures for prevention of accidents, mainly, the non-destructive control (NDC) of these systems technical condition without their stop. So, complexes of NDC-methods are applied for fault detection of functioning long distance pipe lines and industrial chimneys. The defects elimination process, and recovery works on the stopped idle systems can be considered as stage-by-stage risk management implementation. With increase of specified measures’ costs the accidents damage risk mitigation is reached. At the same time modified to year expenses representing the sum of presented expenditures related to risk mitigation measures and the presented accidents damage at some cost value for risk mitigation take up minimum value. Further expenses level increase with minimum cost is not compensated by the level of prevented damage. Searching of the specified expenses level for accidents risk mitigation with minimum cost is an optimization problem on minimization of the modified to year risky expenses. In this work has been offered a risk management algorithm scheme at operation of such potentially dangerous technical system as a functioning industrial reinforced concrete flue.

Cost of capital and probability of default in value-based risk management

2019 ◽  
Vol 42 (11) ◽  
pp. 1243-1258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Werner Gleißner
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Probability Of Default ◽  
Business Decisions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Enterprise Value ◽  
Changes In Risk

Purpose This paper aims to present the combination of enterprise risk management (ERM) and value-based management as especially suitable methods for companies with a shareholder value imperative. Among its major benefits, these methods make the contribution of risk management for business decisions more effective. Design/methodology/approach Any possible inconsistencies between ERM, generating value because of imperfect capital markets and the CAPM to calculate cost of capital, which assumes perfect markets, must be avoided. Therefore, it is imperative that valuation methods used are based on risk analysis, and thus do not require perfect capital markets. Findings Value-based risk management requires the impact of changes in risk on enterprise value to be calculated and the aggregation of opportunities and risks related to planning to calculate total risk (using Monte Carlo simulation) and valuation techniques that reflect the effects changes in risk, on probability of default, cost of capital and enterprise value (and do not assume perfect capital markets). It is recommended that all relevant risks should be quantified and described using adequate probability distributions derived from the best information. Practical implications This approach can help to improve the use of risk analysis in decision-making by improving existing risk-management systems. Originality/value This extension of ERM is outlined to provide risk-adequate evaluation methods for business decisions, using Monte Carlo simulation and recently developed methods for risk–fair valuation with incomplete replication in combination with the probability of default. It is shown that quantification of all risk using available information should be accepted for the linking of risk analysis and business decisions.

scholarly journals RISK ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT OF PROCUREMENT ACTIVITIES IN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL BOOK PRINTING PROJECT USING HOUSE OF RISK METHOD

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 225-229
Author(s):  
Ananda Vania Arisa Putri ◽  
Rheza Aulia Ramadhan ◽  
Bambang Purwanggono Sukarsono
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Elementary School ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Management Effort ◽  
School Books ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Risk Analysis And Management

Risk management is a management effort to control the company's risk operations by conducting risk analysis, risk evaluation and mitigation plan. Risk management efforts are feasible to be applied to the company's business activities including procurement activities. PT XYZ is one of the printing companies whose main demand is the printing of Elementary School Books. There is a decrease in demand that results in disruption to the company's cash flow so that a tight money policy is applied to every company's activity including procurement activities. This policy increases the risk that may occur, so risk management efforts are needed to minimize the impact that can occur. The House of Risk method is used to identify risk events and risk agents that cause them, and design mitigation measures to address those risk agents. The results showed that there were 10 risk events and 10 identified risk agents, with priority risk agents to be handled are A1 (volume and type of raw materials are incorrect) and A3 (communication interruption). There are 5 recommended mitigation measures.

scholarly journals Risk management processes used in determining project feasibility in the property development process early stages by Australia/New Zealand property developers

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Moorhead ◽  
Lynne Armitage ◽  
Martin Skitmore
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Development Process ◽  
Property Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Early Stages ◽  
Management Processes ◽  
Property Developers

PurposeThe purpose is to examine the risk management processes and methods used in determining project feasibility in the early stages of the property development process by Australia/New Zealand property developers, including Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian models and real option theory embedded in long-term property development and investment decision-making as instruments for providing flexibility and managing risk, uncertainty and change.Design/methodology/approachA questionnaire survey of 225 Australian and New Zealand trader developers, development managers, investors, valuers, fund managers and government/charities/other relating to Australia/New Zealand property development companies' decision-making processes in the early stages of the development process prior to site acquisition or project commencement – the methods used and confidence in their organisations' ability to both identify and manage the risks involved.FindingsFew of the organisations sampled use sophisticated methods; those organisations that are more likely to use such methods for conducting risk analysis include development organisations that undertake large projects, use more risk analysis methods and have more layers in their project approval process. Decision-makers have a high level of confidence in their organisation's ability to both identify and manage the risks involved, although this is not mirrored in their actual risk management processes. Although the majority of property developers have a risk management plan, less than half have implemented it, and a third need improvement.Practical implicationsProperty development organisations should incorporate more modern and sophisticated models of risk analysis to determine the uncertainty of, and risk in, a change of input variables in their financial viability appraisals. Practical application includes using such multiple techniques as what-if scenarios and probability analysis into feasibility processes and utilise these specific techniques in the pre-acquisition stages of the property development process and, specifically, in the site acquisition process to support decision-making, including a live risk register and catalogue of risks, including identification of and plans for mitigation of project risks, as a form of risk management.Originality/valueFirst study to examine the extent of the decision-making methods used by property developers in the pre-acquisition stage of the development process.

A conceptual model and empirical assessment of HR security risk management

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 411-433 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peace Kumah ◽  
Winfred Yaokumah ◽  
Eric Saviour Aryee Okai
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Information Security ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Security Management ◽  
Internal Audit ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Controls ◽  
Management Literature ◽  
Security Risk Management

Purpose This study aims to develop a conceptual model and assess the extent to which pre-, during- and post-employment HR security controls are applied in organizations to manage information security risks. Design/methodology/approach The conceptual model is developed based on the agency theory and the review of theoretical, empirical and practitioner literature. Following, empirical data are collected through a survey from 134 IT professionals, internal audit personnel and HR managers working within five major industry sectors in a developing country to test the organizational differences in pre-, during- and post-employment HR security measures. Findings Using analysis of variance, the findings reveal significant differences among the organizations. Financial institutions perform better in employee background checks, terms and conditions of employment, management responsibilities, security education, training and awareness and disciplinary process. Conversely, healthcare institutions outperform other organizations in post-employment security management. The government public institutions perform the worst among all the organizations. Originality/value An integration of a conceptual model with HR security controls is an area that is under-researched and under-reported in information security and human resource management literature. Accordingly, this research on HR security management contributes to reducing such a gap and adds to the existing HR security risk management literature. It, thereby, provides an opportunity for researchers to conduct comparative studies between developed and developing nations or to benchmark a specific organization’s HR security management.

Risk management in small family firms: insights into a paradox

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Mitter ◽  
Maria Postlmayr ◽  
Michael Kuttner
Keyword(s):  
Social Capital ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Family Firms ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Small Family

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to provide insights into the risk management practices of small family firms (SFFs).Design/methodology/approachThis paper is based on a multi-site case study approach among ten SFFs (that employ between 10 and less than 50 employees according to the European Commission's recommendation 2003/361/EC) and draws on the concept of social capital.FindingsThe study demonstrates that the vast majority of sample SFFs lacks a formal risk management system and does not prepare for crises and emergencies. However, they are aware of most of their specific risks and draw on a number of risk-mitigation measures to address them. Social capital emerges as common thread and overarching principle in these risk-reduction initiatives, as the SFFs rely on long-standing, trusting and fair relationships with key stakeholders to cushion their businesses from adverse impacts. This prevalence of informal risk management mechanisms may partially explain the paradox as to why formal risk management tools are rarely applied in SFFs.Practical implicationsAs the study findings suggest that social capital serves SFFs as risk-reduction measure, owner-managers should capitalise on this specific strength. However, they should also invest in more systematic risk management initiatives to better equip their businesses with the tools to fend off adverse scenarios.Originality/valueThis study is among the first to analyse risk management in SFFs.

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