scholarly journals Risk-aware decision support with constrained goal models

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 472-490 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolaos Argyropoulos ◽  
Konstantinos Angelopoulos ◽  
Haralambos Mouratidis ◽  
Andrew Fish
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Automated Reasoning ◽  
Functional System ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Security Requirements ◽  
Government Information ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Additional Value ◽  
Goal Models ◽  
Selection Of

Purpose The selection of security configurations for complex information systems is a cumbersome process. Decision-making regarding the choice of security countermeasures has to take into consideration a multitude of, often conflicting, functional and non-functional system goals. Therefore, a structured method to support crucial security decisions during a system’s design that can take account of risk whilst providing feedback on the optimal decisions within specific scenarios would be valuable. Design/methodology/approach Secure Tropos is a well-established security requirements engineering methodology, but it has no concepts of Risk, whilst Constrained Goal Models are an existing method to support relevant automated reasoning tasks. Hence we bridge these methods, by extending Secure Tropos to incorporate the concept of Risk, so that the elicitation and analysis of security requirements can be complimented by a systematic risk assessment process during a system’s design time and supporting the reasoning regarding the selection of optimal security configurations with respect to multiple system objectives and constraints, via constrained goal models. Findings As a means of conceptual evaluation, to give an idea of the applicability of the approach and to check if alterations may be desirable, a case study of its application to an e-government information system is presented. The proposed approach is able to generate security mechanism configurations for multiple optimisation scenarios that are provided, whilst there are limitations in terms of a natural trade-off of information levels of risk assessment that are required to be elicited. Originality/value The proposed approach adds additional value via its flexibility in permitting the consideration of different optimisation scenarios by prioritising different system goals and the automated reasoning support.

scholarly journals WARRN – a formulation-based risk assessment process: its implementation and impact across a whole country

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 399-410
Author(s):  
Robert J. Snowden ◽  
Jordan Holt ◽  
Nicola Simkiss ◽  
Aimee Smith ◽  
Daniel Webb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Mental Health Services ◽  
Health Services ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Research Network ◽  
Safety Planning ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Assessment Process ◽  
Health Boards

Purpose Wales Applied Risk Research Network (WARRN) is a formulation-based technique for the assessment and management of serious risk (e.g. violence to others, suicide, etc.) for users of mental health services. It has been gradually adopted as the risk evaluation and safety-planning technique for all seven health boards in Wales. The purpose of this paper is to examine the opinions of WARRN as used within these health boards. Design/methodology/approach An online survey was disseminated to NHS clinicians in secondary mental health services to evaluate their perceptions of the use and effectiveness of WARRN. Data from 486 clinicians were analysed with both quantitative and qualitative methods. Findings Results indicated that the overall impact of WARRN on secondary mental health care was very positive, with clinicians reporting increased skills in the domains of clinical risk formulation, safety-planning and communication, as well as increased confidence in their skills and abilities in these areas. Clinicians also reported that the “common-language” created by having all NHS health boards in Wales using the same risk assessment process facilitated the communication of safety-planning. Crucially, NHS staff believed that the safety of service users and of the general public had increased due to the adoption of WARRN in their health board and many believed that lives had been saved as a result. Originality/value WARRN is perceived to have improved clinical skills in risk assessment and safety-planning across Wales and saved lives.

Violence risk assessment practices in Israel: a preliminary survey investigation

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 116-126
Author(s):  
Jay P. Singh ◽  
Rabeea Assy ◽  
Katrina I. Serpa
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Social Workers ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Assessment Practices ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Violence Risk Assessment ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the violence risk assessment practices in Israel by social workers, clinical criminologists, and marriage and family therapists using a Web-based survey. Design/methodology/approach A Web-based survey and participation letter were translated into Hebrew and distributed to members of the Israel Association of Social Workers, the Israel Society of Clinical Criminology and the Israel Association for Marital and Family Therapy following the Dillman Total Design Survey Method. Findings The sample was composed of 34 professionals, who reported using structured instruments to predict and manage the likelihood of violence in over half of their risk assessments over both their lifetime and the past 12 months. Younger female respondents who entered their profession more recently were more likely to use instruments during the risk assessment process. There appeared to be a trend toward decreased use of actuarial instruments and increased use in structured professional judgment instruments. Originality/value The first national survey of violence risk assessment practices by behavioral healthcare professionals in Israel was conducted. This study revealed the risk assessment utility trends in Israel, finding that compared to professionals in North America, South America, Europe, East Asia and Australia, professionals in Israel conducted fewer risk assessments and used structured instruments less often, highlighting concern about the lack of reliance on evidence-based techniques in the country.

Impact of supply risk management on firm performance: a case of the Indian electronics industry

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramesh KT ◽  
Sarada Prasad Sarmah
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Firm Performance ◽  
Electronics Industry ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Supply Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Monitoring ◽  
Indian Electronics Industry

PurposeThe purpose of this research is to study and examine the influence of systematic supply risk management (SRM) on the buyer's firm performance, mainly focussing on the Indian electronics industry.Design/methodology/approachThe study has framed a set of hypotheses on the risk management model. A thorough literature review and experts' opinion were considered in framing constructs and hypothesis for the model. We adopted self-administration questionnaires mainly focusing on the Indian electronics industry. The derived hypothesis is tested using partial least squares (PLS) method from 140 survey data pertaining to small, medium and large scale industries.FindingsStudy justify that constructs with high loadings for risk identification, risk assessment, risk reduction, and risk monitoring supports all hypothesized relation to better risk management. The model captures superior risk identification, risk control and risk monitoring for overall firm performance, but fails to justify with organization supply risk assessment process on overall firm performance.Research limitations/implicationsThe study mainly focused on SRM process on firm performance. Study mainly focused on single survey responses and expert's perceptions on SRM practices in Indian electronics industry.Practical implicationsResearch empirically justifies the effects of SRM process on organization performance. Furthermore, effective SRM practices assist decision makers framing corrective strategies to mitigate risk occurrences and their negative impact.Originality/valueThis empirical work provides a deep understanding of SRM process on the Indian electronics industry and their perception towards firm performance. Moreover, this is one of the few empirical studies addressing SRM practices in the Indian electronics industry.

Use of AHP in decision-making for machine tool configurations

2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 874-888 ◽  
Author(s):  
Uday Hameed Farhan ◽  
Majid Tolouei-Rad ◽  
Adam Osseiran
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Multiple Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Four Levels ◽  
Time Required ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Selection Of

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop a model of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple criteria decision-making method, to assist selecting suitable machine configurations for special purpose machines (SPMs) from available alternatives. Design/methodology/approach The necessary criteria and sub-criteria were identified and used in the developed model. The assessment process was carried out by constructing the hierarchy of four levels. Then, pairwise comparison matrices were created for each level to compute the weights for the alternatives. The model was programmed and implemented by software for practical use. Findings Different scenarios were obtained from the assessment process of the developed AHP model showing the influence of changing the relevant importance of the elements in the hierarchy on the selection of SPMs configurations. Selection of the suitable scenario was also affected by some factors of manufacturing preferences and industry recommendations such as cost and production rate. Originality/value This is a new application of AHP method which assists decision makers to select suitable configurations for SPMs, and reduce the time required for designing SPMs.

A modified ANP and fuzzy inference system based approach for risk assessment of in-house and third party e-procurement systems

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ramkumar
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Technological Risk ◽  
Risk Magnitude

Purpose The increasing complexity and dynamism of new technology implemented or to implement have imposed substantial uncertainties and subjectivities in the risk assessment process. This paper aims to present a risk assessment methodology for e-procurement implementation based on modified analytic network process (ANP) coupled with fuzzy inference systems. Design/methodology/approach ANP is modified in such a way that the experts can provide necessary data precise numerical value, a range of numerical values, a linguistic term or a fuzzy number. The proposed methodology incorporates knowledge and judgements obtained from experts to carry out identification of risk factors and to assess the risk magnitude of the identified risk factors based on factor index, risk likelihood and risk severity. Findings Risk magnitude of third party systems are found to be minor with a belief of 100 per cent, and for in-house systems, the risk is found to be between minor with a belief of 30 per cent and major of 70 per cent. The results indicate that by using the proposed methodology, the technological risk assessment of new technology can be done effectively and efficiently. Research limitations/implications Using the results of this study, the practitioners can better know the pros and cons of implementing both in-house and third party e-procurement systems. Originality/value The modified ANP is used mainly to structure and prioritize the diverse risk factors. Finally, an illustrative example on technological risk assessment of both in-house and third party e-procurement systems is used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology in real life situations.

Risk assessment of buildings against blast effectsThis article is one of a selection of papers published in the Special Issue on Blast Engineering.

2009 ◽  
Vol 36 (8) ◽  
pp. 1285-1291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Foo ◽  
Bert von Rosen ◽  
Ettore Contestabile
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Security Requirements ◽  
Rapid Screening ◽  
Existing Buildings ◽  
Blast Loads ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Preliminary Assessment ◽  
Blast Effects ◽  
New Buildings ◽  
Selection Of

Because of changes in functional or security requirements, many new or existing buildings are now required to resist blast loads. New buildings can be designed and constructed to resist defined blast loads. Existing buildings, on the other hand, would have to rely on a risk assessment to determine both its vulnerability to blast effects and the necessary measures to mitigate the unacceptable blast effects. A rapid screening methodology has been developed for conducting a preliminary assessment of buildings against external blast effects. The methodology accounts for the threat, the vulnerability of the building, the consequence of an event and the risk, which is the product of the threat and the consequence. The rapid screening methodology has been applied to several buildings and the results are reasonable. This paper presents the rapid screening methodology and its application to two federal buildings in Canada.

Risk mitigation in unstabilized approach with fuzzy Bayesian bow-tie analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 92 (10) ◽  
pp. 1513-1521
Author(s):  
Caner Acarbay ◽  
Emre Kiyak
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Performance Indicator ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bow Tie

Purpose Stable approach concept has great importance for the safe operation of an airline during the approach and landing phases. The purpose of this study is to analyse the unstabilized approaches with bow-tie method and determine the threats that may cause risk in an unstable approach. Design/methodology/approach In this study, risk assessment of the unstabilized approaches is carried out by using fuzzy bow-tie method and Bayesian networks. Bow-tie method is the combination of event tree analysis and fault tree analysis. Bayesian network is used in the analysis to see interrelationship of basic and intermediate events as well as to update posterior probabilities. Finally, analysis results are verified by the safety performance indicator values. Findings In this study, the probabilistic values of the numerical model presented by the risk assessment system for risks were calculated using the fuzzy bow-tie method. Thus, the risk assessment system has been transformed into a structure that can be expressed in a probabilistic manner, and the relationship of the risks within the system has been examined and the effect of a possible change on the risk value has been found to be prevalent. Originality/value The bow-tie model is widely applied to assess the risks in aviation. Obtaining prior probabilities is not always possible in the risk assessment process. In this paper, innovative fuzzy bow-tie method is used to assess the risks to overcome the lack of prior probability problem in aviation operations.

A study on influencing factors for simplified seismic collapse risk assessment of steel moment-resisting frames with intermediate ductility

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 833-848
Author(s):  
Sassan Eshghi ◽  
Mohammad Mahdi Maddah
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Concrete Slab ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Steel Beams ◽  
Collapse Mechanism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Steel Moment Resisting Frames ◽  
Composite Action ◽  
Seismic Collapse ◽  
Steel Mrfs

Purpose Mid-rise steel moment-resisting frames (MRFs) with intermediate ductility are a major part of conventional residential buildings in Iran. According to Iranian seismic design codes, in this resisting system, considering the strong-column/weak-beam (SCWB) criterion is not mandatory. Where a metal deck ceiling system is used, the composite action of a concrete slab and steel beams could change the collapse mechanism of the structure, especially in the MRFs with intermediate ductility. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of the composite action in the seismic collapse risk of this type of structures. Seismic collapse risk assessment can be carried out by using simplified pushover-based methods. In these methods, the cyclic deterioration of an equivalent single degree of freedom (ESDoF) system must be considered when the modified Ibarra–Medina–Krawinkler is used for nonlinear modeling of MRFs. Accordingly, a modified method is developed to use in simplified collapse risk assessment process. For these purposes, two mid-rise MRFs with intermediate ductility located in Tehran have been selected as case studies. The results confirm that the composite action is very effective in collapse risk value in the steel MRFs in which their SCWB ratio is less than 1. Moreover, the proposed approach of considering the cyclic deterioration of ESDoF systems increases the accuracy of the simplified collapse assessment approaches. Design/methodology/approach Identifying seismically vulnerable buildings to collapse requires using robust methods. These methods can be simplified based on pushover analysis methods. An attempt was made to apply one of these approaches for steel MRFs with intermediate ductility. In these frames, the composite action of a concrete slab and steel beams could change the collapse mechanism. Here, two MRFs were investigated in order to assess this effect on collapse risk value. This process was done by modifying the SPO2IDA method as a simplified collapse capacity evaluation approach by developing a relationship to consider the cyclic deterioration effects for the ESDoF systems. Findings The results showed that it is necessary to consider the slab effects in the analytical model in the collapse assessment process of MRFs with intermediate ductility, especially in the condition in which the SCWB ratios of the frame are less than 1. Furthermore, by utilizing the proposed method of considering the ESDoF cyclic deterioration, the error values of the SPO2IDA program were reduced significantly. Moreover, estimating the collapse risk parameters shows that the utilized simplified method presents suitable accuracy and could be an acceptable approach to collapse risk assessment of mid-rise steel MRFs. Originality/value The influence of the composite action in seismic collapse risk of MRFs with intermediate ductility is investigated. Also, a modified relationship is developed to consider the deterioration effects on the ESDoF parameters used in simplified collapse risk assessment process. Also, a framework is presented for utilized methodology.

scholarly journals Reaerosolization of Spores from Flooring Surfaces To Assess the Risk of Dissemination and Transmission of Infections

2015 ◽  
Vol 81 (15) ◽  
pp. 4914-4919 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Paton ◽  
Katy-Anne Thompson ◽  
Simon R. Parks ◽  
Allan M. Bennett
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Particle Size ◽  
Size Range ◽  
Surface Concentration ◽  
Protective Equipment ◽  
Bacillus Atrophaeus ◽  
Air Concentration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Aerosol Exposure ◽  
Selection Of

ABSTRACTThe aim of this study was to quantify reaerosolization of microorganisms caused by walking on contaminated flooring to assess the risk to individuals accessing areas contaminated with pathogenic organisms, for example, spores ofBacillus anthracis. Industrial carpet and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) floor coverings were contaminated with aerosolized spores ofBacillus atrophaeusby using an artist airbrush to produce deposition of ∼103to 104CFU · cm−2. Microbiological air samplers were used to quantify the particle size distribution of the aerosol generated when a person walked over the floorings in an environmental chamber. Results were expressed as reaerosolization factors (percent per square centimeter per liter), to represent the ratio of air concentration to surface concentration generated. Walking on carpet generated a statistically significantly higher reaerosolization factor value than did walking on PVC (t= 20.42;P< 0.001). Heavier walking produced a statistically significantly higher reaerosolization factor value than did lighter walking (t= 12.421;P< 0.001). Height also had a statistically significant effect on the reaerosolization factor, with higher rates of recovery ofB. atrophaeusat lower levels, demonstrating a height-dependent gradient of particle reaerosolization. Particles in the respirable size range were recovered in all sampling scenarios (mass mean diameters ranged from 2.6 to 4.1 μm). The results of this study can be used to produce a risk assessment of the potential aerosol exposure of a person accessing areas with contaminated flooring in order to inform the choice of appropriate respiratory protective equipment and may aid in the selection of the most suitable flooring types for use in health care environments, to reduce aerosol transmission in the event of contamination.

Integration of analytic hierarchy process and Dempster-Shafer theory for supplier performance measurement considering risk

2014 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kunal Ganguly
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Performance Measurement ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dempster Shafer Theory ◽  
Supplier Performance ◽  
Shafer Theory ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide proactive supply chain performance method considering risk which can be used during the supplier selection/assessment process. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, the effort is to present a model for evaluating the supply-related risk, which is based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the Dempster-Shafer theory (DST). The proactive risk management methods used in this research is: seeking risk sources and identifying the variables to be used in the model, preprocessing the variables data to get the directions of the variables and the risk bounds, assigning variables weights via AHP method and finally evaluating the supply risk via DST method and determine the final risk degree. Findings – The paper contributes to research in risk assessment in the specific field of supplier performance measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model using AHP and DST for risk assessment of supplier based on performance measurement is presented. An empirical analysis is conducted to illustrate the use of the model for the risk assessment in supply chain. Research limitations/implications – This methodology can be adopted by supply chain managers to evaluate the level of risk associated with current suppliers, and to assist them in making outsourcing decisions. Originality/value – The proposed method makes a contribution by including risk as a performance measure in supply chain. The generated proactive supply risk assessment process uses a hybrid model of AHP and DST providing a novel approach for performance measurement which will be valuable both to academics and practitioners in this field.

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