Changes of base-year and Indian GDP growth: an agnostic look

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Manisha Chakrabarty ◽  
Partha Ray
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rates ◽  
Fixed Time ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
True Nature ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Series ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Data Generating Process ◽  
A Chain

Purpose World over, change of base year in the gross domestic product (GDP) is a standard practice of GDP estimation. However, unless a consistent series of GDP is released with respect to the new base for the earlier period, the existence of multiple growth rates creates problems for applied researchers, policymakers and the general public alike. Faced with such a menu of GDP series researchers often try to interpolate a consistent series of GDP. The main purpose of this paper is to analyses the nature of the data generating process of such multiple interpolated series of quarterly growth rates and tries to discern the consistency of such processes. Design/methodology/approach The present paper tries to look into the statistical implications and complications of such interpolated quarterly GDP/growth series in India in terms of three series of GDP, namely, with 1999–2000, 2004–2005 and 2011–2012 as its bases. Findings The analysis reveals that as a result of a change of base year, the nature of the data generating process of the old and new GDP series could undergo changes and experience different breakpoints. While all these conclusions seem to be valid for GDP growth at quarterly intervals, taking the data at annual frequency is less problematic. Practical implications The observation suggests that in most applied work, researchers may not have the luxury of only working with annual data and certain consistency checks will be necessary to check the veracity of the results based on quarterly data with those based on annual data. Second, moving forward it may be useful for the Authorities to make a transition to a chain-based linking method rather than fixed time-period-based bases as is currently done. Originality/value The analysis of Indian GDP in this paper is, perhaps, indicative of the fact that usage of quarterly GDP data is to be handled with caution and it is preferable that any serious empirical analysis uses annual GDP data whenever it is available/feasible. The comparison of GDP growth rates at different frequencies and examining the true nature of the process are quite unique in their contribution towards empirical macroeconomic research.

Colombia’s infrastructure expansion faces major delays

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rates ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Caribbean Coast ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Opportunities ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
New Infrastructure

Significance The claims follow the ANI’s announcement on February 22 that it would cancel the contract of an Odebrecht-led consortium to build the Ruta del Sol 2 highway, linking central Colombia to the Caribbean coast. Impacts The risk of potentially intrusive investigations will remain high for firms with commercial or contractual links to Odebrecht. Delays in completion of infrastructure projects could bring Colombia’s GDP growth rates for 2017 below the current forecasts of 2.7%. Later in the year, new infrastructure investment opportunities will open as corruptly awarded contracts are resubmitted for tender. Allegations that Santos’s 2014 election campaign received Odebrecht funding could harm his Party of the U in the 2018 election.

An examination of changing patterns in Lean Six Sigma research

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (7) ◽  
pp. 23-25
Keyword(s):  
Six Sigma ◽  
Keyword Search ◽  
Fixed Time ◽  
Lean Six Sigma ◽  
Integrated System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Changing Patterns ◽  
Six Sigma Methodology ◽  
Six Sigma Approach

Purpose The purpose of this study was to examine patterns in the research contributions from individuals in the field to detect whether they reflect the evolution of academic discussion concerning integration of Lean and Six Sigma methodology over a fixed time period. Design/methodology/approach Data was gathered from a keyword search of articles in the SCOBUS data base to determine the most frequent contributors in the areas of Lean, Six Sigma and Lean Six Sigma research. Searches were carried out over five-yearly intervals from 2000 to 2015 and the twenty-one top contributors in each time period were identified. Findings The findings show that research contributions have moved away from looking at the single methodologies of Lean and Six Sigma and towards research based on the integrated Lean Six Sigma approach. The analysis also suggested that researchers may be publishing papers using different methodologies in response to different challenges in selecting the most appropriate tools to meet the needs of the specific issues they are addressing rather than advocating a particular approach. Practical implications For organizations to optimize performance a flexible approach would be beneficial with consideration being given to the specific issue and the correct tools and methodology selected from an integrated system or from Lean or Six Sigma systems alone. Originality/value This paper has originality in its’ consideration of the patterns of research contributions over a fixed time period as a reflection of the shift in debate from exclusive Lean or Six Sigma approaches to a more integrated Lean Six Sigma system.

Trends and determinants of IT-BPM exports in India

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 212-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manzoor Hassan Malik ◽  
Nirmala Velan
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Domestic Market ◽  
Export Growth ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Export Revenue

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of trends of Indian information technology and business processing management (IT-BPM) sector and to analyse the determinants of IT-BPM sector during the period 1991-2014. Design/methodology/approach The study is based on annual data collected from National Association of Software and Service Companies and Department of Electronic and Information Technology for the period 1991 to 2014. The methodology adopted for studying the objectives are simple averages, percentages, ratios, growth rates, graphs prepared on the basis of data from the IT-BPM sector and regression analysis. Trends and patterns in key variables, such as total revenue, domestic revenue, export revenue, employment and exports of the IT-BPM sector have been examined. Factors influencing IT-BPM export growth have been analysed using ordinary least square multiple regression model, with growth rates of gross domestic product (GDP), labour productivity, exchange rate and previous year’s export, as the explanatory variables. Findings The export revenue from IT-BPM sector increased continuously over the years, at an average growth rate of 36.60 per cent during the period 1991 to 2014. Similarly, domestic revenue of IT-BPM sector also increased, but at a lower growth rate. This is because domestic market in India is captured by multinational giants against Indian firms, which do not possess full comparative advantage in the case of IT-BPM sector. Indian firms are producing low skill activities required for production, mainly concentrated only in the export sector. Direct employment, excluding hardware from IT-BPM sector, has grown at an average rate of 18.08 per cent over the study period. The determinants of IT-BPM exports indicated previous year’s export demand to be significantly contributing the highest to export growth rate. This was followed by GDP growth rate, implying that overall growth of the economy leads to significant increase in export growth. Increased labour productivity followed next in significantly encouraging export growth. Research limitations/implications Generalization of the results may not be possible, as Indian conditions and policies vary. Practical implications The paper has implications for the expansion of domestic market, diversification of trade and products, innovations for increasing competitiveness and sustainability in the global market in the wake of stiff competitions from new competitors. Originality/value This paper focuses on originality in analysis of determinants of export growth.

Growth may accelerate under new Slovak government

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
New Education ◽  
Health Teachers

Significance The governing coalition has a comfortable parliamentary majority, but faces gathering concerns over Prime Minister Robert Fico's health, teachers' protests over wages and opposition calls to dismiss the new education minister. Impacts Short-term fiscal deterioration is expected in 2016-18 (the deficit is likely to remain elevated), as government expenditure rises. Nevertheless, Slovakia's investment grade is expected to remain solid. This is due to strong levels of FDI in autos, with local businesses making use of EU funds and subsidies for new investments. Political risk will diminish in line with higher GDP growth rates and lower rates of unemployment. This will be particularly so after 2017 once government measures have fed through to the economy.

Crowding out agricultural insurance and the subsidy system in Italy: empirical evidence of the charity hazard phenomenon

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pier Paolo Miglietta ◽  
Donatella Porrini ◽  
Giulio Fusco ◽  
Fabian Capitanio
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Progress ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Insurance Policy ◽  
Agricultural Insurance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dynamic Panel Model ◽  
Panel Model ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Italian Regions

PurposeThe term “charity hazard” refers to the issue of the crowding out of insurance by co-existing relief programs in the context of different institutional governmental disaster schemes. In this context, the aim of this paper is to verify if the charity hazard phenomenon exists in the Italian agricultural insurance scheme.Design/methodology/approachAnnual data regarding crop insurance, subsidies and farm structure were extracted from ISMEA, ISTAT and FADN databases. A SYS-GMM dynamic panel model was estimated, considering the 2010–2017 time period and the Italian Regions as units of the analysis.FindingsThe empirical results highlight a negative relation between crop subsidies and the farmers' policies and total premium paid. The disincentive and crowd-out effects of public aid and subsidies on the choice of whether or not to take out an agricultural insurance policy ends up being one of the key factors for the low level of penetration of the agricultural insurance in Italy.Practical implicationsSince the diffusion of agricultural insurance can contribute to the general objective of sustainability and resilience, the implementation of alternative solutions to subsidies could be needed (e.g. the introduction of mandatory insurance against adversities or financial support for a geographically specific insurance tool).Originality/valueInvestigating empirically the determinants of the agricultural insurance policy diffusion among the Italian Regions, this study ensures an original contribution to the scientific progress in the field, demonstrating the existence of charity hazard caused by the public subsidies provision.

Russia cannot expect large rise in GDP growth rates

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rates ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type

Headline RUSSIA: Moscow will not see GDP growth rates rise fast

Relationship between crime and economic affluence in India: an empirical study from 1982 to 2013

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Avijit Debnath ◽  
Sujoy Das
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Analyze Data

Purpose There have been limited studies which investigate the interlinkage between crime and economic affluence. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the linkage between crime and economic affluence in India. Design/methodology/approach The study is based on annual data spans over the time period 1982-2013. Standard econometric tools like unit root test, co-integration and two stage least square technique have been used to analyze data and to draw inferences. Findings The study finds that crime and economic affluence are interlinked in India. However, the nature of the linkage is not uniform over the time span. It is observed that economic affluence affects violent crime positively in the long run, but crime effects affluence negatively. In the short run, however, the relationship between crime and economic affluence is observed to be reversed. Originality/value This study is first of its nature to investigate the bi-directional linkage between crime and economic affluence in India. This study helps us to understand that controlling the crime rate is the urgent need of the hour to alleviate the pace of long run economic affluence in India.

Impacts of Paris Agreement on Russian economy

2018 ◽  
pp. 76-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. A. Makarov ◽  
C. Henry ◽  
V. P. Sergey
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Climate Policies

The paper applies multiregional CGE Economic Policy Projection and Analysis (EPPA) model to analyze major risks the Paris Agreement on climate change adopted in 2015 brings to Russia. The authors come to the conclusion that if parties of the Agreement meet their targets that were set for 2030 it may lead to the decrease of average annual GDP growth rates by 0.2-0.3 p. p. Stricter climate policies beyond this year would bring GDP growth rates reduction in2035-2050 by additional 0.5 p. p. If Russia doesn’t ratify Paris Agreement, these losses may increase. In order to mitigate these risks, diversification of Russian economy is required.

Economic Growth and Macro Variables in India: An Empirical Study

2015 ◽  
pp. 42-59
Author(s):  
Saba Ismail ◽  
Shahid Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
The Government ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

The research objective of this paper is to explore the empirical linkages between economic growth and foreign direct investment (FDI), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and trade openness in India (TOP) over the period 1980 to 2013. The study reveals a positive relationship between economic growth and FDI, GFCF and TOP. This study establishes a strong unidirectional causal flow from changes in FDI, trade openness and capital formation to the economic growth rates of India. The impulse response function traces the positive influence of these macro variables on the GDP growth rates of India. The study also reveals that the volatility of GDP growth rates in India is mainly attributed to the variation in the level of GFCF and FDI. The study concludes that the FDI inflows and the size of capital formation are the main determinants of economic growth. In view of this, it is expected that the government of India should provide more policy focus on promoting FDI inflows and domestic capital formations to increase its economic growth in the long-term.

Utilization of remote sensing for estimation of scale of cutting and growing of forest zones

2017 ◽  
Vol 920 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-60
Author(s):  
F.E. Guliyeva
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Fixed Time ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Time Points ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Remote Estimation ◽  
The Given ◽  
Forest Cutting

The study of results of relevant works on remote sensing of forests has shown that the known methods of remote estimation of forest cuts and growth don’t allow to calculate the objective average value of forests cut volume during the fixed time period. The existing mathematical estimates are not monotonous and make it possible to estimate primitively the scale of cutting by computing the ratio of data in two fixed time points. In the article the extreme properties of the considered estimates for deforestation and reforestation models are researched. The extreme features of integrated averaged values of given estimates upon limitations applied on variables, characterizing the deforestation and reforestation processes are studied. The integrated parameter, making it possible to calculate the averaged value of estimates of forest cutting, computed for all fixed time period with a fixed step is suggested. It is shown mathematically that the given estimate has a monotonous feature in regard of value of given time interval and make it possible to evaluate objectively the scales of forest cutting.

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