Climate change and military planning

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 172-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Brzoska
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Planning ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Consequences ◽  
General Climate

Purpose – The paper aims to investigate the consequences of climate change for the future of armed forces and their presentation in national security documents. Design/methodology/approach – A classification of potential future military roles and functions is derived from relevant literature, resulting in six “military futures”. Frames are developed for these whose occurrence is counted in 53 authoritative documents on security policy and defense planning from 38 countries. Results are presented in descriptive statistics. Findings – The paper demonstrates that climate change has become an important issue for military planning. However, the directions in which it takes thinking about the future of armed forces differ widely. Among the six “military futures” identified, those linked to the function of disaster relief are most frequently found. However, the expansion of traditional military roles is also promoted. Rarer are suggestions for armed forces to became “greener” or “leaner”. In general, climate change provides an additional justification for continuing established paths for military planning. Originality/value – The paper makes two contributions to the existing literature. First, it provides a classification of potential future consequences of climate change for armed forces. Second, it empirically establishes, for a set of authoritative documents, the relative importance of differing expectation of the effects of climate change on the structure and functions of militaries.

Climate change could intensify Sahel conflicts

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Droughts And Floods ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
Small Scale Irrigation

Significance It will increase rainfall variability and extreme events such as droughts and floods, as well as raising temperatures. These effects may trigger cascading risks to economic, social and political stability. Impacts The EU could play a key role in moderating climate effects as it shapes migration and security policy in the Sahel. The likelihood and severity of climate impacts will depend on socio-economic and political conditions in the region. Small-scale irrigation, climate-adapted seeds and traditional soil conservation techniques can help increase resilience to climate change.

scholarly journals Characterization of European cities’ climate shift – an exploratory study based on climate analogues

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 428-452
Author(s):  
Guillaume Rohat ◽  
Stéphane Goyette ◽  
Johannes Flacke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Public Health Services ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Shift ◽  
European Cities ◽  
The Future

Purpose Climate analogues have been extensively used in ecological studies to assess the shift of ecoregions due to climate change and the associated impacts on species survival and displacement, but they have hardly been applied to urban areas and their climate shift. This paper aims to use climate analogues to characterize the climate shift of cities and to explore its implications as well as potential applications of this approach. Design/methodology/approach The authors propose a methodology to match the current climate of cities with the future climate of other locations and to characterize cities’ climate shift velocity. Employing a sample of 90 European cities, the authors demonstrate the applicability of this method and characterize their climate shift from 1951 to 2100. Findings Results show that cities’ climate shift follows rather strictly north-to-south transects over the European continent and that the average southward velocity is expected to double throughout the twenty-first century. These rapid shifts will have direct implications for urban infrastructure, risk management and public health services. Originality/value These findings appear to be potentially useful for raising awareness of stakeholders and urban dwellers about the pace, magnitude and dynamics of climate change, supporting identification of the future climate impacts and vulnerabilities and implementation of readily available adaptation options, and strengthening cities’ cooperation within climate-related networks.

Wildcards – natural and artificial: the combination of a panel of experts and Fuzzy TOPSIS

foresight ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Mohammadi ◽  
Mohammad Rahim Eivazi ◽  
Jafar Sajjadi
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Fuzzy Topsis ◽  
New Method ◽  
Weak Signals ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Participatory Foresight ◽  
The Future ◽  
Similar Character ◽  
Topsis Model

Purpose The purpose of this paper is threefold: to classify wildcards into three particular types sharing similar characteristics; use the Fuzzy TOPSIS as a new method in foresight to turn qualitative ideas into quantitative ones; and apply a combination of Fuzzy TOPSIS and a panel of experts to prioritize weak signals. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, the authors classify wildcards into three particular types which share similar character: natural wildcards, artificial wildcards (Degree 1) and artificial wildcards (Degree 2). Wildcards point to unexpected and surprising events including important results that can form watershed in the development of a specific trend. In addition, the authors present a Fuzzy TOPSIS model which can be used in various cases to prioritize a number of weak signals and put them in order, so that the most important ones are likely to yield the wildcard in the future Findings The authors presented a classification of wildcards with the same characteristics being natural wildcards, artificial wildcards (Degree 1) and artificial wildcards (Degree 2). The authors also prioritized the weak signals to deal with the most important ones and take appropriate action in advance so as to minimize possible damages and maximize the benefits of potential wildcards in an uncertain environment. Originality/value In this paper, the authors report on the prioritizing of weak signals by applying Fuzzy TOPSIS and classify wildcards. This is significant because, by identifying the most important weak signals, appropriate actions can be taken in the future if necessary. The paper should be of interest to readers in the area of participatory foresight.

scholarly journals Asset management using a hybrid backcasting/forecasting approach

Facilities ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (11/12) ◽  
pp. 701-715 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith Jones ◽  
Api Desai ◽  
Mark Mulville ◽  
Aled Jones
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Asset Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Alternative Pathways ◽  
Future State ◽  
The Future

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present an alternative approach to facilities and built asset management adaptation planning to climate change based on a hybrid backcasting/forecasting model. Backcasting envisions a future state and examines alternative “pathways of approach” by looking backwards from the future state to the present day. Each pathway is examined in turn to identify interventions required for that pathway to achieve the future state. Each pathway is reviewed using forecasting tools and the most appropriate is selected. This paper describes the application of this approach to the integration of climate change adaptation plans into facilities and built asset management. Design/methodology/approach – The researchers worked with various stakeholders as part of a participatory research team to identify climate change adaptations that may be required to ensure the continued performance of a new educational building over its life cycle. The team identified 2020, 2040 and 2080 year end-goals and assessed alternative pathways of approach. The most appropriate pathways were integrated into the facilities and built asset management plan. Findings – The paper outlines a conceptual framework for formulating long term facilities and built asset management strategies to address adaptation to climate change. Research limitations/implications – The conceptual framework is validated by a single research case study, and further examples are needed to ensure validity of the approach in different facilities management contexts. Originality/value – This is the first paper to explore backcasting principles as part of facilities and built asset management planning.

Brazil security policy proposals will prompt fears

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Police Officers ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Public Security ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Security Issue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
President Elect ◽  
Policy Proposals

Subject Public security policy under the incoming government. Significance The new political landscape following the recent elections has accelerated the trend towards militarisation of public security responses to crime. President-elect Jair Bolsonaro has pledged to increase the focus on imprisonment and make it easier for police officers to shoot criminals. This is especially worrying in Rio de Janeiro, where a key Bolsonaro ally was elected governor and promised to form sniper teams to shoot suspected criminals, including from helicopters. Impacts The armed forces’ representation in the future cabinet will reinforce the narrative of crime as a ‘national security’ issue. The army may be deployed more frequently on the streets. Bolsonaro’s public security promises will require negotiations with state governments with direct responsibility for crime fighting. Disputes over the constitutionality of a plan to free police officers from prosecution may prompt fierce political and juridical debate.

Negotiating stakeholder participation in the Ghana national climate change policy

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 399-417 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elaine Tweneboah Lawson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Stakeholder Participation ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Climate Change Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stakeholder Consultation ◽  
Change Policy ◽  
Vulnerability Assessments

Purpose Stakeholder consultation and participation are central to the climate change policymaking process. The purpose of this paper is to assess the level of stakeholder participation in the Ghana National Climate Change Policy. It examines the actors in the policy space and the negotiations and tradeoffs made during the policymaking process. Finally, it outlines the steps undertaken to make the process participatory and consultative. Design/methodology/approach A qualitative method has been used for this paper. The research design involves a review of relevant literature on Ghana’s climate change regime, meeting reports and key informant interviews. Findings The findings indicate that the processes the policy underwent had extensive stakeholder participation. An uptake of evidence was from existing impact and vulnerability assessments, the first and second communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), scientific and research documents and expert knowledge. Key actors were identified and involved right from the beginning of the policymaking process. Although stakeholder participation was time-consuming, expensive and elongated, the policy process was vital for buy-in and ownership. The results also identified the need to include more stakeholders at the sub-regional levels in policymaking. Originality/value The study is the first of its kind detailing stakeholder participation in the climate change policy process in Ghana. It forms a good basis for comparative studies with similar policies in other countries. Thus, this paper fills an identified gap of the need to document climate change policymaking processes.

scholarly journals DESET LET IZHAJANJA BILTENA SLOVENSKE VOJSKE – NOVIM IZZIVOM NAPROTI

2013 ◽  
pp. 23-37
Author(s):  
ALOJZ ŠTEINER
Keyword(s):  
Editorial Policy ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Creation

Desetletno obdobje izhajanja Biltena Slovenske vojske (Bilten SV) je priložnost za analizo prehojene poti, pa tudi za pogled v prihodnost. V članku so predstavljeni kvantitativni kazalci uspešnosti izhajanja publikacije: pregled izdanih številk, število prispevkov, število natisnjenih strani in obravnavanih vprašanj z različnih področij delovanja Slovenske vojske in širšega obrambnega sistema ter število avtorjev. Več kot 150 avtorjev je skupaj oblikovalo skoraj 200 predvsem strokovnih člankov. Na začetku leta 2008 je bil oblikovan novi uredniški odbor, že sedmi po vrsti, ki si je zastavil nekaj smelih ciljev, ki jih predstavljamo v nadaljevanju. Seveda pa so glavni izzivi povezani s ciljem uredniške politike, da se v razvrstitvi strokovnih publikacij Bilten SV uvrsti v višji razred, da se povečata strokovnost in število znanstvenih prispevkov, da tako postane ogledalo strokovnosti in profesionalnosti naše vojske. Temu izzivu sledijo predstavljena vizija in strategija uredniškega odbora ter predvsem povabilo k širjenju kroga ustvarjalcev in mreže prejemnikov oziroma bralcev. The tenth anniversary of the Slovenian Armed Forces' Bulletin (in the further text: SAF Bulletin) provides an opportunity to make an in­depth analysis of the past and a view to the future. The article presents analytical indicators of the past period and achievements in terms of the number of issues, printed pages and topics covering various areas of Slovenian Armed Forces' operations and beyond. More than 150 authors have participated in the creation of almost 200 predominantly subject­matter related articles. The beginning of the year 2008 saw the establishment of the new editorial board, the seventh in the row that set some ambitious goals also described in this article. The main challenges are linked with the desire and goal of the SAF Bulletin editorial policy to improve its ranking in the classification of professional publications, to upgrade the level of professionalism and to increase the number of scientific articles, thereby reflecting the level of expertise and professionalism of the Slovenian Armed Forces. This challenge is the basis for the presented vision and strategy of the editorial board and, most of all, an invitation to expand the network of authors, subscribers and readers.

Germany will drive greater EU defence cooperation

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Policy ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
White Paper ◽  
Political Resistance ◽  
International Peace ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Challenge ◽  
Defence Cooperation

Significance This followed the approval of a white paper on Germany's security policy and the future of its armed forces on July 13. The fundamental suggestion of the white paper -- which sits atop the hierarchy of security strategy documents and drives medium-to-long-term strategy -- is that Berlin should take on greater responsibility for international peace and security and demonstrate leadership within the limits of its capabilities. Impacts Germany is considering opening its armed forces to non-German EU citizens and has abandoned a fixed upper limit of active forces. Closer coordination and joint exercises between the armed forces and police are likely, despite political resistance. The white paper commits Germany to a policy of deterrence and dialogue vis-a-vis Russia, with Moscow described as a security challenge.

scholarly journals Synergizing climate change mitigation and adaptation in Cameroon

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 118-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faith Ngum ◽  
Dieudonne Alemagi ◽  
Lalisa Duguma ◽  
Peter A. Minang ◽  
Anderson Kehbila ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Technical Committee ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The Government ◽  
Change Mitigation

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the policy environments, institutional arrangements and practical implementation of some initiatives undertaken by the Government of Cameroon, together with some relevant stakeholders, in addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation at various levels in the country, which are prerequisites to promote synergistic ways of addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation.Design/methodology/approachUsing a qualitative approach to data collection, the paper draws upon information collected from relevant literature and interviews with 18 key country resource personnel.FindingsResults revealed that most reviewed policies/programs/strategies do not mention “climate change” explicitly but propose some activities which indirectly address it. Interaction is fair within the government ministries but weak between these ministries and other institutions. Inadequate financial resources are being opined as the most important challenge stakeholders are (and would continue) facing as a result of adopting integrated approaches to climate change. Other challenges include inadequate coordination, insufficient sensitization and capacity building, ineffective implementation, inadequate compliance, lack of proper transparency and inadequate public participation. To redress the aforementioned constraints and challenges, the paper concludes by outlining a number of recommendations for policy design.Originality/valueThe following recommendations were made: create a national technical committee to oversee and provide scientific guidance to the government on synergistic approaches; promote private sector investment and sponsorship on synergistic approaches; create local awareness, etc. It is important to underscore that minimal studies have been conducted to analyze multi-stakeholder perspectives on synergies between climate change mitigation and adaptation in Cameroon. This study attempts to bridge this major gap.

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