scholarly journals Asset management using a hybrid backcasting/forecasting approach

Facilities ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (11/12) ◽  
pp. 701-715 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith Jones ◽  
Api Desai ◽  
Mark Mulville ◽  
Aled Jones
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Asset Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Alternative Pathways ◽  
Future State ◽  
The Future

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present an alternative approach to facilities and built asset management adaptation planning to climate change based on a hybrid backcasting/forecasting model. Backcasting envisions a future state and examines alternative “pathways of approach” by looking backwards from the future state to the present day. Each pathway is examined in turn to identify interventions required for that pathway to achieve the future state. Each pathway is reviewed using forecasting tools and the most appropriate is selected. This paper describes the application of this approach to the integration of climate change adaptation plans into facilities and built asset management. Design/methodology/approach – The researchers worked with various stakeholders as part of a participatory research team to identify climate change adaptations that may be required to ensure the continued performance of a new educational building over its life cycle. The team identified 2020, 2040 and 2080 year end-goals and assessed alternative pathways of approach. The most appropriate pathways were integrated into the facilities and built asset management plan. Findings – The paper outlines a conceptual framework for formulating long term facilities and built asset management strategies to address adaptation to climate change. Research limitations/implications – The conceptual framework is validated by a single research case study, and further examples are needed to ensure validity of the approach in different facilities management contexts. Originality/value – This is the first paper to explore backcasting principles as part of facilities and built asset management planning.

scholarly journals Adaptation to climate-change effects on fisheries in the Shiretoko World Natural Heritage area, Japan

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (7) ◽  
pp. 1134-1140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mitsutaku Makino ◽  
Yasunori Sakurai
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Integrated Management ◽  
World Heritage ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Natural Heritage ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
The World ◽  
Heritage Area ◽  
World Natural Heritage

Abstract Makino, M., and Sakurai, Y. 2012. Adaptation to climate-change effects on fisheries in the Shiretoko World Natural Heritage area, Japan. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: . In the Shiretoko World Natural Heritage area, many factors have been observed that imply effects of climate change on ecosystems, such as decreases in seasonal sea ice, changes in fishing grounds, and the appearance of non-local species. This study summarizes observed and anticipated effects of such climate change on fisheries in the heritage area and discusses policy and research needs for adapting to these changes. International research and monitoring at the scale of large marine ecosystems (LMEs) is the basis of all policy measures for adapting to climate change. Several measures need to be combined, taking into account the various socio-ecological aspects of fisheries and scales of ecosystems. Such measures of adaptation should be incorporated also into the cross-sector coordination system and the Integrated Management Plan, which were established to manage the World Heritage area. Also, culture is an important part of society, and the World Heritage programme may offer clues for creating a new and peaceful culture based on the LME.

scholarly journals Organizational adaptation to climate change: learning to anticipate energy disruptions

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 645-665 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renato J. Orsato ◽  
Simone R. Barakat ◽  
José Guilherme F. de Campos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organizational Adaptation ◽  
Organizational Level ◽  
Traditional Learning ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Double Loop Learning ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
New Forms Of Learning

Purpose This paper aims to investigate how organizational learning (OL) affects the development of anticipatory adaptation to climate change in companies. Because the need to learn increases in circumstances of greater uncertainty such as the case of climate change, one of the processes that can explain different levels of anticipatory adaptation to climate change (AACC) by companies is OL. Design/methodology/approach The research uses a case study design. Following the procedures of qualitative sampling, an exemplary case of organizational adaptation to climate change in a sector that is extremely affected by the impacts of weather events was chosen. Empirical data collection includes semi-structured interviews and the collection of private and public documents. Such data were analyzed through thematic analysis. Findings The process of OL for anticipatory adaptation to climate change presents substantial differences from the traditional OL process presented by the specialized literature. In particular, the concepts of single- and double-loop learning were challenging to fit into the learning processes required for AACC. Originality/value Organizations have historically been working towards the adaption to external unforeseen events, but anticipatory adaptation to climate change presents new challenges and requires new forms of learning. Previous research has examined the interplay between learning and climate change adaptation, especially at the inter-organizational level. By developing research at the organizational level, this paper addresses a gap in the literature and shows that the required learning to adapt to climate change differs from the traditional learning, described in the management literature.

scholarly journals Characterization of European cities’ climate shift – an exploratory study based on climate analogues

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 428-452
Author(s):  
Guillaume Rohat ◽  
Stéphane Goyette ◽  
Johannes Flacke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Public Health Services ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Shift ◽  
European Cities ◽  
The Future

Purpose Climate analogues have been extensively used in ecological studies to assess the shift of ecoregions due to climate change and the associated impacts on species survival and displacement, but they have hardly been applied to urban areas and their climate shift. This paper aims to use climate analogues to characterize the climate shift of cities and to explore its implications as well as potential applications of this approach. Design/methodology/approach The authors propose a methodology to match the current climate of cities with the future climate of other locations and to characterize cities’ climate shift velocity. Employing a sample of 90 European cities, the authors demonstrate the applicability of this method and characterize their climate shift from 1951 to 2100. Findings Results show that cities’ climate shift follows rather strictly north-to-south transects over the European continent and that the average southward velocity is expected to double throughout the twenty-first century. These rapid shifts will have direct implications for urban infrastructure, risk management and public health services. Originality/value These findings appear to be potentially useful for raising awareness of stakeholders and urban dwellers about the pace, magnitude and dynamics of climate change, supporting identification of the future climate impacts and vulnerabilities and implementation of readily available adaptation options, and strengthening cities’ cooperation within climate-related networks.

Elderly smallholder farmers’ perceptions of and adaptation to climate variability and change in rural Ghana

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Divine Odame Appiah ◽  
Felix Asante ◽  
Lois Antwi-Boadi ◽  
Richard Serbeh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Formal Education ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability And Change ◽  
Content Type

Purpose This paper aims to examine elderly smallholder farmers’ perceptions of and adaptation to climate variability and change in the Offinso Municipality, Ghana. Design/methodology/approach This paper used quantitative and qualitative methods. Quantitative data were analyzed with frequencies and chi-square tests, whereas qualitative data were thematically analyzed. Findings The results showed that elderly smallholder farmers’ knowledge of climate variability and climate change were based on their sex, level of formal education and experience in farming. Elderly smallholder farmers adopted both on-farm and off-farm strategies to cope with climate change and variability. The vulnerability of elderly smallholder farmers to climate change calls for social protection mechanisms such as a pension scheme that guarantees access to monthly cash transfers. Such a scheme will ease constraints to livelihood and ensure improved well-being. Originality/value Elderly smallholder farmers have remained invisible in discourses on perceptions and adaptation to climate change despite the surge in number of this category of farmers. This paper therefore represents an attempt to highlight the experiences of elderly smallholder farmers with climate variability and change.

scholarly journals A Simplistic Approach for Assessing Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Lakes and Reservoirs with Regulated Superficial Outflow

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kleoniki Demertzi ◽  
Dimitris Papadimos ◽  
Vassilis Aschonitis ◽  
Dimitris Papamichail
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Modified Model ◽  
Natural Lakes ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

This study proposes a simplistic model for assessing the hydroclimatic vulnerability of lakes/reservoirs (LRs) that preserve their steady-state conditions based on regulated superficial discharge (Qd) out of the LR drainage basin. The model is a modification of the Bracht-Flyr et al. method that was initially proposed for natural lakes in closed basins with no superficial discharge outside the basin (Qd = 0) and under water-limited environmental conditions {mean annual ratio of potential/reference evapotranspiration (ETo) versus rainfall (P) greater than 1}. In the proposed modified approach, an additional Qd function is included. The modified model is applied using as a case study the Oreastiada Lake, which is located inside the Kastoria basin in Greece. Six years of observed data of P, ETo, Qd, and lake topography were used to calibrate the modified model based on the current conditions. The calibrated model was also used to assess the future lake conditions based on the future climatic projections (mean conditions of 2061-2080) derived by 19 general circulation models (GCMs) for three cases of climate change (three cases of Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The modified method can be used as a diagnostic tool in water-limited environments for analyzing the superficial discharge changes of LRs under different climatic conditions and to support the design of new management strategies for mitigating the impact of climate change on (a) flooding conditions, (b) hydroelectric production, (c) irrigation/industrial/domestic use and (d) minimum ecological flows to downstream rivers.

Climate change and military planning

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 172-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Brzoska
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Planning ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Consequences ◽  
General Climate

Purpose – The paper aims to investigate the consequences of climate change for the future of armed forces and their presentation in national security documents. Design/methodology/approach – A classification of potential future military roles and functions is derived from relevant literature, resulting in six “military futures”. Frames are developed for these whose occurrence is counted in 53 authoritative documents on security policy and defense planning from 38 countries. Results are presented in descriptive statistics. Findings – The paper demonstrates that climate change has become an important issue for military planning. However, the directions in which it takes thinking about the future of armed forces differ widely. Among the six “military futures” identified, those linked to the function of disaster relief are most frequently found. However, the expansion of traditional military roles is also promoted. Rarer are suggestions for armed forces to became “greener” or “leaner”. In general, climate change provides an additional justification for continuing established paths for military planning. Originality/value – The paper makes two contributions to the existing literature. First, it provides a classification of potential future consequences of climate change for armed forces. Second, it empirically establishes, for a set of authoritative documents, the relative importance of differing expectation of the effects of climate change on the structure and functions of militaries.

scholarly journals Building information modelling to support maintenance management of healthcare built assets

Facilities ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (7/8) ◽  
pp. 415-434 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadeeshani Wanigarathna ◽  
Keith Jones ◽  
Adrian Bell ◽  
Georgios Kapogiannis
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Asset Management ◽  
Building Information Modelling ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Information Modelling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Building Information ◽  
Use Phase

Purpose This paper aims to investigate how digital capabilities associated with building information modelling (BIM) can integrate a wide range of information to improve built asset management (BAM) decision-making during the in-use phase of hospital buildings. Design/methodology/approach A comprehensive document analysis and a participatory case study was undertaken with a regional NHS hospital to review the type of information that can be used to better inform BAM decision-making to develop a conceptual framework to improve information use during the health-care BAM process, test how the conceptual framework can be applied within a BAM division of a health-care organisation and develop a cloud-based BIM application. Findings BIM has the potential to facilitate better informed BAM decision-making by integrating a wide range of information related to the physical condition of built assets, resources available for BAM and the built asset’s contribution to health-care provision within an organisation. However, interdepartmental information sharing requires a significant level of time and cost investment and changes to information gathering and storing practices within the whole organisation. Originality/value This research demonstrated that the implementation of BIM during the in-use phase of hospital buildings is different to that in the design and construction phases. At the in-use phase, BIM needs to integrate and communicate information within and between the estates, facilities division and other departments of the organisation. This poses a significant change management task for the organisation’s information management systems. Thus, a strategically driven top-down organisational approach is needed to implement BIM for the in-use phase of hospital buildings.

Improving the performance of a Malaysian pharmaceutical warehouse supply chain by integrating value stream mapping and discrete event simulation

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Abideen ◽  
Fazeeda Binti Mohamad
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Discrete Event ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Value Stream Mapping ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Value Stream ◽  
Future State ◽  
The Future ◽  
Value Stream Map

Purpose Lean implementation is vastly incorporated in core manufacturing processes; however, its applicability in the supply chain and service industry is still in its infancy. To acquire performance excellence and thrive in the global competitive market, many firms are adopting newer methodologies. But, there is a stringent need for production simulation systems to analyze supply chains both inbound and outbound. The era of face validation is slowly disappearing. Lean tools and procedures that provide future state assumptions need advanced tools and techniques to measure, quantify, analyze and validate them. The purpose of this study is to enable dynamic quantification and visualization of the future state of a warehouse supply chain value stream map using discrete event simulation (DES) technique. Design/methodology/approach This study aimed to apply an integrated approach of the value stream mapping (VSM) and DES in a Malaysian pharmaceutical production warehouse. The main focus is diverted towards reducing the warehouse supply chain lead time by initially constructing a supply chain value stream map (both present state and future state) and integrating its data in a DES modelling and simulation software to dynamically visualize the changes in future state value stream map. Findings The DES simulation was able to mimic the future state lead time reductions successfully, which assists in better decision-making. Improvements were seen related to total lead time, process time, value and non-value-added percentage. Warehouse performance metrics such as receiving, put away and storage rates were substantially improved along with pallet processing time, worker and forklift throughput usage percentage. Detailed findings are clearly stated at the end of this paper. Research limitations/implications This study is limited to the warehouse environment and further additional process models and functional upgrades in the DES software systems are very much needed to directly visualize and quantify all the possible Lean assumptions such as radio frequency image identification/Andon (Jidoka), 5S, Kanban, Just-In-Time and Heijunka. However, DES has a leading edge in extracting dynamic characteristics out of a static VSM timeline and capture details on discrete events precisely by picturizing facility modification and lead time related to it. Practical implications This paper includes all the fundamental pharmaceutical warehouse supply chain processes and the simulations of the future state VSM in a real-life context by successfully reducing supply chain lead time and allowing managers in inculcating near-optimal decision-making, controlling and coordinating warehouse supply chain activities as a whole. Social implications This integrated approach of DES and VSM can involve managers and top management to support the adoption of anticipated changes. This study also has the potential to engage practitioners, researchers and decision-makers in the warehouse industry. Originality/value This study involves a powerful DES software package that can mimic the real situation as a virtual simulation and all the data and model building are based on a real warehouse scenario in the pharmaceutical industry.

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