scholarly journals The US shale oil production, market forces and the US export ban

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilayda Taneri ◽  
Nukhet Dogan ◽  
M. Hakan Berument
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Shale Oil ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
The Us ◽  
Positive Shock

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to use the novel data from the primary vision to determine the main financial and economic drivers of this revolutionary shale oil production and how these drivers changed after 2016 when the US removed its oil-exporting ban. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, the authors use the vector autoregressive model to assess the dynamic relationships among the Frac Count (FSCN) from the primary vision and the set of financial/macro-economic variables and how this dynamic relationship is altered with the effects of the US export ban before and after the lifting of the export ban. Findings The empirical evidence reveals that a positive shock to New York Mercantile Exchange, Standard and Poor’s 500, rig count, West Texas Intermediate or the US ending oil stocks increase the FSCN but higher interest rates and oil production decrease the FSCN. After the US became one of the major oil producers, it removed its crude export ban in December 2015. The empirical evidence suggests that the shale oil industry gets more integrated with the financial system and becomes more efficient in its production process in the post-2016 era after the export ban was removed. Originality/value The purpose of this paper is to use the novel data from the primary vision to determine the main financial and economic drivers of this revolutionary shale oil production and how these drivers changed after 2016 when the US removed its oil-exporting ban.

scholarly journals Budget deficits, money growth and inflation: empirical evidence from Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hoang Van Khieu
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Money Growth ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Endogenous Variables ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Positive Shock

PurposeThis paper aims to uncover the nexus between budget deficits, money growth and inflation in Vietnam in the period 1995–2012.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses a structural vector auto-regressive model of five endogenous variables including inflation, real GDP growth, budget deficit growth, money growth and the interest rate.FindingsIt is found that inflation rose in response to positive shocks to money growth and that budget deficits had no significant impact on money growth and therefore inflation. This empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that fiscal and monetary policies were relatively independent. Money growth significantly decreased in response to a positive shock to inflation; interest rates had no significant effect on inflation but considerably increased in response to positive inflation shocks. This implies that the monetary base was more effective than interest rates in fighting inflation.Originality/valueThis paper sheds light into understanding the link between budget deficits, money growth and inflation in Vietnam during the high-inflation period 1995–2012. The finding supports the hypothesis that fiscal and monetary policies were relatively independent over the period.

Absence of the weekend effect and industry-style portfolios

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 463-475
Author(s):  
Selma Izadi ◽  
Abdullah Noman
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Weekend Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Portfolio ◽  
The Us ◽  
Using Data

Purpose The existence of the weekend effect has been reported from the 1950s to 1970s in the US stock markets. Recently, Robins and Smith (2016, Critical Finance Review, 5: 417-424) have argued that the weekend effect has disappeared after 1975. Using data on the market portfolio, they document existence of structural break before 1975 and absence of any weekend effects after that date. The purpose of this study is to contribute some new empirical evidences on the weekend effect for the industry-style portfolios in the US stock market using data over 90 years. Design/methodology/approach The authors re-examine persistence or reversal of the weekend effect in the industry portfolios consisting of The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), The American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and The National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations exchange (NASDAQ) stocks using daily returns from 1926 to 2017. Our results confirm varying dates for structural breaks across industrial portfolios. Findings As for the existence of weekend effects, the authors get mixed results for different portfolios. However, the overall findings provide broad support for the absence of weekend effects in most of the industrial portfolios as reported in Robins and Smith (2016). In addition, structural breaks for other weekdays and days of the week effects for other days have also been documented in the paper. Originality/value As far as the authors are aware, this paper is the first research that analyzes weekend effect for the industry-style portfolios in the US stock market using data over 90 years.

Shale is here again

2020 ◽  
pp. 249-250
Author(s):  
Anthony Seaton
Keyword(s):  
Oil Production ◽  
Department Of Energy ◽  
Shale Oil ◽  
Research Project ◽  
The Us

In Shale is here again Anthony Seaton briefly explores his research project with the US Department of Energy to study the risks of shale oil production and mining.

Political pressure on Turkey's Central Bank will go on

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
The Past ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
The Us ◽  
External Sources ◽  
Run Up

Significance The CBRT is expected to respond at its regular monthly interest rate-setting meeting to the fall in inflation in January to 7.2%. However, while the nearly 50% slide in oil prices since last June has led to a sharp decline in headline consumer prices, core inflation has been hovering near 9% for the last four months -- significantly above the CBRT's 5% inflation target. Just as importantly, Turkey's currency has fallen to a record low against the dollar, losing 7% over the past month because of the increasing politicisation of Turkish monetary policy and mounting expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin hiking interest rates as early as June, putting Turkish assets under renewed strain. Impacts CBRT independence is becoming one of the main focal points for market concern about emerging markets. Heavy reliance on external sources of finance will leave Turkey highly sensitive to resurgent dollar and increased US Treasury yields. Renewed lira weakness is likely to persist in the run-up to elections in June, which could also coincide with rising US interest rates. That would put further pressure on the balance sheets of Turkey's heavily indebted corporate sector.

US energy high-yield bonds spur default risk

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
Energy Companies

Subject Impact of the oil price drop on energy high-yield bonds. Significance The over 50% oil price drop since June 2014 is hitting bonds issued by energy companies, particularly those issued by sub-investment grade corporates. The US high-yield bond market has been growing rapidly over the past five years. The shale boom has generated considerable investment, mainly funded through the issuance of these bonds which benefit from historically low interest rates. As the oil price has plunged, the spread over Treasury yields paid by the average issuer in the energy subsector has more than doubled between July and the December 2014 peak. Impacts Yields currently offered by the energy subsector are not far from pricing in a default scenario. Persistently low oil prices will further darken the outlook for the energy subsector and the high-yield market generally. A possible default cycle in the energy sector could accelerate outflows, overstretching the sector further.

Central bank action will drive global equity markets

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Monetary Policy

Significance This volatility is driven by expectations of further monetary stimulus in response to a slowing economy. Despite persistent concerns about the fallout from the anticipated tightening in US monetary policy and many country-specific risks, such as the standoff between Greece and its creditors, equity market sentiment remains supported by accommodative monetary policies worldwide and expectations of the US monetary policy tightening being gradual. Impacts Market volatility could increase further, as better-than-expected economic data in the euro-area vies with weaker-than-anticipated US data. Decoupling of surging equity prices and weak economic fundamentals threatens the rally's sustainability, increasing scope for volatility. This decoupling is most pronounced in China, where weak economic data prompt buying of equities in anticipation of stimulus measures. The greatest risk in equity markets is uncertainty surrounding US interest rates and their impact on emerging markets.

OPEC quotas may have small impact

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Change Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Small Impact ◽  
Future Action ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Direction ◽  
The Impact

Significance OPEC's decision to try to agree new quotas for its members, albeit with key exemptions, suggests a fragile consensus is growing around a change in policy direction towards cooperation. Impacts Perceptions will strengthen that Saudi Arabia is prepared to change strategy. A framework and platform for future action should allow OPEC to reassert its cartel position. Agreement on quotas is unlikely to reduce export volumes much, limiting the impact on prices. The prospect of a deal will see further additions to the US rig count, with implications for US oil production in 2017. If prices rise, encouraging more investment, and Libyan and Nigerian output recovers, OPEC output could rise even if quotas are imposed.

Prospects for the global economy in the fourth quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Of China ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject Prospects for the global economy in the fourth quarter. Significance Three threats are on the horizon. Firstly, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might raise interest rates this year. This move, though well signalled, may have negative repercussions, especially in emerging markets (EMs). Secondly, China's economy, a key to global growth, is slowing and its financial markets are exceptionally volatile. These factors have already elicited policy interventions such as renminbi depreciation and further rate cuts by the People's Bank of China (PBoC). Finally, there is no apparent end in sight to weak global demand and the fall in commodities prices that has left commodity-exporting countries struggling with precipitous drops in revenue.

Low rates facilitate private equity's global spread

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Private Equity ◽  
Petroleum Industry ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Net Returns ◽  
The Us ◽  
Global Spread ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis

Subject Private equity trends. Significance With global interest rates close to record lows, new private equity (PE) firms are opening at record rates, raising the most money since the 2008 financial crisis. However, with banks facing stricter supervision and higher capital requirements, PE firms are less able to use leverage to increase their returns. Impacts More PE funds will mean heightened competition and higher prices for new investments. The surge in PE investment may mean the top of the cycle is near. The upcoming US presidential election could affect carried interest taxation, decreasing the net returns to PE GPs. Increased PE investment in the US petroleum industry should prevent a significant dip in US oil production.

US Fed will struggle to raise rates much in 2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Face ◽  
Lift Off ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject US monetary policy outlook for 2016 and its global impact. Significance There is a large discrepancy between the US Federal Reserve (Fed)'s estimates for interest rates at end-2016 and the expectations of bond investors. The latter are anticipating less tightening than the 100-basis-point (bp) rise in the Federal Funds rate the Fed has pencilled in for this year. Despite a successful rates 'lift-off' on December 16, the Fed faces many challenges in raising rates in the face of mounting stress in credit markets, disinflationary pressures from the plunge in commodity prices and a contraction manufacturing. Impacts While the Fed will tighten policy, other central banks, including the ECB, will provide further stimulus, accentuating policy divergence. Investors will price in a more hawkish Fed if US inflation accelerates faster than expected, potentially leading to a sell-off. Concerns about China's economy and the commodity prices slump will also shape investor sentiment.

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