Application of quasi-oppositional symbiotic organisms search based extreme learning machine for stock market prediction

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 175-193
Author(s):  
Smita Rath ◽  
Binod Kumar Sahu ◽  
Manoj Ranjan Nayak
Keyword(s):  
Performance Analysis ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Extreme Learning Machine ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Symbiotic Organisms Search ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
Learning Machine ◽  
Symbiotic Organisms ◽  
First Time

Purpose Forecasting of stock indices is a challenging issue because stock data are dynamic, non-linear and uncertain in nature. Selection of an accurate forecasting model is very much essential to predict the next-day closing prices of the stock indices. The purpose of this paper is to develop an efficient and accurate forecasting model to predict the next-day closing prices of seven stock indices. Design/methodology/approach A novel strategy called quasi-oppositional symbiotic organisms search-based extreme learning machine (QSOS-ELM) is proposed to forecast the next-day closing prices effectively. Accuracy in the prediction of closing price depends on output weights which are dependent on input weights and biases. This paper mainly deals with the optimal design of input weights and biases of the ELM prediction model using QSOS and SOS optimization algorithms. Findings Simulation is carried out on seven stock indices, and performance analysis of QSOS-ELM and SOS-ELM prediction models is done by taking various statistical measures such as mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, accuracy and paired sample t-test. Comparative performance analysis reveals that the QSOS-ELM model outperforms the SOS-ELM model in predicting the next-day closing prices more accurately for all the seven stock indices under study. Originality/value The QSOS-ELM prediction model and SOS-ELM are developed for the first time to predict the next-day closing prices of various stock indices. The paired t-test is also carried out for the first time in literature to hypothetically prove that there is a zero mean difference between the predicted and actual closing prices.

scholarly journals A Cloud Load Forecasting Model with Nonlinear Changes using Whale Optimization Algorithm Hybrid Strategy - extreme Learning Machine

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hua Peng ◽  
Wu-Shao Wen ◽  
Ming-Lang Tseng ◽  
Ling-Ling Li
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Computing ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Extreme Learning Machine ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Random Parameters ◽  
Load Prediction ◽  
Hybrid Strategy ◽  
Whale Optimization ◽  
Learning Machine

Abstract This study proposes a novel cloud load prediction model and combines hybrid whale optimizer (HWOA) and extreme learning machine (ELM) together for strong nonlinear mapping ability. Accurate cloud load prediction improves the cloud service efficiency and serves as the foundation for network scheme due to traditional linear forecasting models are unable to predict cloud computing resources with nonlinear changes on massive multiplication and cloud computing data complexity, effectively. The proposed cloud load forecasting model is to employ HWOA optimizer to optimize the ELM model random parameters. The contributions of this study are as follows. (1) the HWOA optimizer is to solve the whale optimizer local extremum problem; (2) the proposed HWOA optimizer reduces the ELM random parameters on cloud load forecasting; (3) the convergence performance verifies the benchmark testing functions; and (4) three simulation experiments are conducted to test the cloud load forecast effect. The result indicated that the convergence analysis reveals the HWOA optimizer outperforms the prior optimizers. The proposed cloud load prediction model obtains better forecasting results. The mean absolute percentage error and root mean square error of the proposed model are less than 14% and 11, respectively. Accurate cloud load forecasting lays a foundation for effective deployment of cloud computing resources and maximization of economic benefits.

A prediction model for keyhole geometry and acoustic signatures during variable polarity plasma arc welding based on extreme learning machine

Sensor Review ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 257-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Di Wu ◽  
Huabin Chen ◽  
Yinshui He ◽  
Shuo Song ◽  
Tao Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Extreme Learning Machine ◽  
Arc Welding ◽  
Plasma Arc Welding ◽  
Plasma Arc ◽  
Acoustic Features ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Acoustic Signatures ◽  
Variable Polarity ◽  
Learning Machine

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the keyhole geometry and acoustic signatures from the backside of a workpiece. It lays a solid foundation for monitoring the penetration state in variable polarity keyhole plasma arc welding. Design/methodology/approach The experiment system is conducted on 6-mm-thick aluminum alloy plates based on a dual-sensor system including a sound sensor and a charge coupled device (CCD) camera. The first step is to extract the keyhole boundary from the acquired keyhole images based on median filtering and edge extraction. The second step is to process the acquired acoustic signal to obtain some typical time domain features. Finally, a prediction model based on the extreme learning machine (ELM) technique is built to recognize different keyhole geometries through the acoustic signatures and then identify the welding penetration status according to the recognition results. Findings The keyhole geometry and acoustic features after processing can be closely related to dynamic change information of keyhole. These acoustic features can predict the keyhole geometry accurately based on the ELM model. Meanwhile, the predict results also can identify different welding penetration status. Originality/value This paper tries to make a foundation work to achieve the monitoring of keyhole condition and penetration status through image and acoustic signals. A useful model, ELM, is built based on these features for predicting the keyhole geometry. Compared with back-propagating neural network and support vector machine, this proposed model is faster and has better generalization performance in the case studied in this paper.

scholarly journals Carbon Price Forecasting Based on Improved CEEMDAN and Extreme Learning Machine Optimized by Sparrow Search Algorithm

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 4896
Author(s):  
Jianguo Zhou ◽  
Dongfeng Chen
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Extreme Learning Machine ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Carbon Price ◽  
Integration Scheme ◽  
Combination Model ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Learning Machine

Effective carbon pricing policies have become an effective tool for many countries to encourage emission reduction. An accurate carbon price prediction model is helpful for the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction policies and the decision-making of governments and investors. However, it is difficult for a single prediction model to achieve high prediction accuracy because of the high complexity of the carbon price series. Many studies have proved the nonlinear characteristics of carbon trading prices, but there are very few studies on the chaotic nature of carbon price series. As a consequence, this paper proposes an innovative hybrid model for carbon price prediction. A decomposition-reconstruction-prediction-integration scheme is designed to predict carbon prices. Firstly, several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and one residue were obtained from the raw data decomposed by ICEEMDAN. Next, the decomposed subsection is reconstructed into a new sequence according to the calculation results by the Lempel-Ziv complexity algorithm. Then, considering the chaotic characteristics of sequence, the input variables of the models are determined through the phase space reconstruction (PSR) algorithm combined with the partial autocorrelation function (PACF). Finally, the Sparrow search algorithm (SSA) is introduced to optimize the extreme learning machine (ELM) model, which is applied in the carbon price prediction for the purpose of verifying the validity of the proposed combination model, which is applied to the pilots of Hubei, Beijing, and Guangdong. The empirical results show that the combination model outperformed the 13 other models in predicting accuracy, speed, and stability. The decomposition-reconstruction-prediction-integration strategy is a method for predicting the carbon price efficiently.

scholarly journals A Carbon Price Prediction Model Based on the Secondary Decomposition Algorithm and Influencing Factors

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 1328
Author(s):  
Jianguo Zhou ◽  
Shiguo Wang
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Extreme Learning Machine ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Carbon Price ◽  
Carbon Trading ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Learning Machine

Carbon emission reduction is now a global issue, and the prediction of carbon trading market prices is an important means of reducing emissions. This paper innovatively proposes a second decomposition carbon price prediction model based on the nuclear extreme learning machine optimized by the Sparrow search algorithm and considers the structural and nonstructural influencing factors in the model. Firstly, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is used to decompose the carbon price data and variational mode decomposition (VMD) is used to decompose Intrinsic Mode Function 1 (IMF1), and the decomposition of carbon prices is used as part of the input of the prediction model. Then, a maximum correlation minimum redundancy algorithm (mRMR) is used to preprocess the structural and nonstructural factors as another part of the input of the prediction model. After the Sparrow search algorithm (SSA) optimizes the relevant parameters of Extreme Learning Machine with Kernel (KELM), the model is used for prediction. Finally, in the empirical study, this paper selects two typical carbon trading markets in China for analysis. In the Guangdong and Hubei markets, the EMD-VMD-SSA-KELM model is superior to other models. It shows that this model has good robustness and validity.

scholarly journals Pressure Prediction of Coal Slurry Transportation Pipeline Based on Particle Swarm Optimization Kernel Function Extreme Learning Machine

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Xue-cun Yang ◽  
Xiao-ru Yan ◽  
Chun-feng Song
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Extreme Learning Machine ◽  
Kernel Function ◽  
Particle Swarm ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Particle Swarm Algorithm ◽  
Coal Slurry ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
Learning Machine

For coal slurry pipeline blockage prediction problem, through the analysis of actual scene, it is determined that the pressure prediction from each measuring point is the premise of pipeline blockage prediction. Kernel function of support vector machine is introduced into extreme learning machine, the parameters are optimized by particle swarm algorithm, and blockage prediction method based on particle swarm optimization kernel function extreme learning machine (PSOKELM) is put forward. The actual test data from HuangLing coal gangue power plant are used for simulation experiments and compared with support vector machine prediction model optimized by particle swarm algorithm (PSOSVM) and kernel function extreme learning machine prediction model (KELM). The results prove that mean square error (MSE) for the prediction model based on PSOKELM is 0.0038 and the correlation coefficient is 0.9955, which is superior to prediction model based on PSOSVM in speed and accuracy and superior to KELM prediction model in accuracy.

scholarly journals Underwater Acoustic Signal Prediction Based on MVMD and Optimized Kernel Extreme Learning Machine

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Yang ◽  
Lipeng Gao ◽  
Guohui Li
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Extreme Learning Machine ◽  
Acoustic Signal ◽  
Grey Wolf ◽  
Underwater Acoustic ◽  
Signal Prediction ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Kernel Extreme Learning Machine ◽  
Learning Machine ◽  
Underwater Acoustic Signal

Aiming at the chaotic characteristics of underwater acoustic signal, a prediction model of grey wolf-optimized kernel extreme learning machine (OKELM) based on MVMD is proposed in this paper for short-term prediction of underwater acoustic signals. To solve the problem of K value selection in variational mode decomposition, a new K value selection method MVMD is proposed from the perspective of mutual information, which avoids the blindness of variational mode decomposition (VMD) in the preset modal number. Based on the prediction model of kernel extreme learning machine (KELM), this paper uses grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm to optimize and select its regularization parameters and kernel parameters and proposes an optimized kernel extreme learning machine OKELM. To further improve the prediction performance of the model, combined with MVMD, an underwater acoustic signal prediction model based on MVMD-OKELM is established. MVMD-OKELM prediction model is applied to Mackey–Glass chaotic time series prediction and underwater acoustic signal prediction and is compared with ARIMA, EMD-OKELM, and other prediction models. The experimental results show that the proposed MVMD-OKELM prediction model has a higher prediction accuracy and can be effectively applied to the prediction of underwater acoustic signal series.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document