A generalized Livestock Gross Margin insurance program for the developing countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 421-438
Author(s):  
Yan Sun ◽  
Ken Seng Tan
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Gross Margin ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Insurance Program ◽  
Margin Insurance

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose a new margin protection (MP) scheme for the producers of hog, cattle and dairy in the developing countries. Design/methodology/approach The proposed MP scheme is inspired by the Livestock Gross Margin (LGM) program that has been successfully implemented in US directly implementing the LGM program in developing countries can be difficult due to the rudimentary of the futures market with limited futures listing. To address this issue, the authors proxy the futures prices by relating to some relevant spot prices via an econometric model. The proxied futures prices, in turn, enable the implementation of a generalized LGM, which the authors denote as the MP scheme. Findings As China is the world’s largest consumption and production of pork, the authors describe the proposed MP scheme by demonstrating how a generalized LGM can be constructed for the Chinese hog producers. By empirically comparing to the pilot hog price index insurance for the Beijing’s hog producers, the authors find that the proposed MP scheme is more effective in providing MP for the producers. Research limitations/implications The proposed MP scheme still requires the availability of some relevant spot prices in order to use an econometric model to proxy the missing futures prices. Originality/value The value of this research stems from demonstrating how an MP scheme can be constructed for developing countries that have rudimentary futures markets.

scholarly journals Livestock Gross Margin–Dairy: An Assessment of Its Effectiveness as a Risk Management Tool and Its Potential to Induce Supply Expansion

2014 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 245-256
Author(s):  
Kenneth H. Burdine ◽  
Yoko Kusunose ◽  
Leigh J. Maynard ◽  
Don P. Blayney ◽  
Roberto Mosheim
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Gross Margin ◽  
Insurance Program ◽  
Multiple Regions ◽  
Estimated Risk ◽  
Futures Price ◽  
Supply Analysis ◽  
Risk Reducing

An evaluation of the risk-reducing effectiveness of the Livestock Gross Margin–Dairy (LGM-Dairy) insurance program, using historical futures price data, predicts economically significant reductions in downside margin risk (24–41%) across multiple regions. Supply analysis based on the estimated risk reduction shows a small supply response, assuming minimal subsidization. A decomposition of the simulated indemnities into milk price and feed price components shows comovements in futures prices moderating the frequency and levels of indemnities.

scholarly journals Growth And Oil Futures Prices In Developing Countries

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Salah Abosedra ◽  
Sajal Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
Short Run

This paper examines cointegration and causality between oil prices and economic growth for the oil importing developing countries of Turkey, India, Pakistan, The Philippines and Korea. The study finds the absence of cointegrating relationship between oil prices and economic activity but the existence of unidirectional short-run causality running from oil prices to economic growths for The Philippines and Pakistan. Unidirectional causality is also found to exist from six and nine month futures prices to economic growth for India and Turkey in a bivariate vector autoregression framework. The study fails to establish causal relationship between oil prices and economic growth for Korea, while for India and Turkey, non-causality has been established between oil spot price and economic growth. Hence, our results may suggest that oil futures markets will have more of a role to play in the economy as these markets mature and or as oil prices continue to increase.

A tale of two coffees? Analysing interaction and futures market efficiency

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-109
Author(s):  
Mark J. Holmes ◽  
Jesús Otero
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Recursive Estimation ◽  
Futures Contracts ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Unit Root Testing ◽  
Price Differentials

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the informational efficiency of Arabica (other milds) and Robusta coffee futures markets in terms of predicting future coffee spot prices. Design/methodology/approach Futures market efficiency is associated with the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between spot and future prices such that coffee futures prices are unbiased predictors of future spot prices. This study applies unit root testing to daily data for futures-spot price differentials. A range of maturities for futures contracts are considered, and the study also uses a recursive approach to consider time variation in futures market efficiency. Findings The other milds and Robusta futures prices tend to be unbiased predictors for their own respective spot prices. The paper further finds that other milds and Robusta futures prices are unbiased predictors of the respective Robusta and other milds spot prices. Recursive estimation suggests that the futures market efficiency associated with these cross cases has increased, though with no clear link to the implementation of the 2007 International Coffee Agreement. Originality/value The paper draws new insights into futures market efficiency by examining the two key types of coffee and analyses the potential interactions between them. Hitherto, no attention has been paid to futures contracts of the Robusta variety. The employment of unit root testing of spot futures coffee price differentials can be viewed as more stringent than an approach based on non-cointegration testing.

Price discovery and volatility spillover: an empirical evidence from spot and futures agricultural commodity markets in India

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 447-473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manogna R L ◽  
Aswini Kumar Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Commodity Markets ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spot Prices

PurposePrice discovery and spillover effect are prominent indicators in the commodity futures market to protect the interest of consumers, farmers and to hedge sharp price fluctuations. The purpose of this paper is to investigate empirically the price discovery and volatility spillover in Indian agriculture spot and futures commodity markets.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses Granger causality, vector error correction model (VECM) and exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) to examines the price discovery and spillover effects for nine most liquid agricultural commodities in spot and futures markets traded on National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX).FindingsThe VECM results show that price discovery exists in all the nine commodities with futures market leading the spot in case of six commodities, namely soybean seed, coriander, turmeric, castor seed, guar seed and chana. Whereas in case of three commodities (cotton seed, rape mustard seed and jeera), price discovery takes place in the spot market. The Granger causality tests indicate that futures markets have stronger ability to predict spot prices. Supporting these, the results from EGARCH volatility test reveal that there exist mutual spillover effects on futures and spot markets. Thus, it could be inferred that futures market is more efficient in price discovery of agricultural commodities in India.Research limitations/implicationsThese results can help the market participants to benefit by hedging out the uncertainty and the policymakers to design futures contracts to improve the efficiency of the agricultural commodity derivatives market.Practical implicationsThe findings provide fresh view on lead–lag relationship between future and spot prices using the latest data confirming that futures market indeed is dominant in price discovery.Originality/valueThere are very few studies that have explored the efficiency of the agricultural commodity spot and futures markets in India using both price discovery and volatility spillover in a detailed manner, especially at the individual agriculture commodity level.

Do Changes in Natural Gas Futures Prices Influence Changes in Natural Gas Spot Prices?

1993 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 467-472 ◽  
Author(s):  
John H. Herbert
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Spot Markets ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Futures Contract

Data on natural gas futures and spot markets are examined to determine if variability in price on futures markets influences variability in price on spot markets. Using econometric techniques, it is found that changes in futures contract prices do not precede changes in spot market prices.

scholarly journals The interdependence of coffee futures and spot markets - An econometric analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 56-66
Author(s):  
B.N. Pradeepa Babu ◽  
Arun Muniyappa
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Spot Markets ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Robusta Coffee ◽  
Indian Context ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Producer Prices

Coffee is an export-oriented commodity for producing countries, and it is actively traded at international commodity exchange platforms viz., Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), New York and ICE, Europe. This study examines the interdependence of futures and spot markets for coffee in the price discovery mechanism, particularly in the Indian context. The study has considered both the International Coffee Organization (ICO) indicator prices and producers’ prices in India’s spot prices. The study confirms the existence of a stable long-run relationship between ICE coffee futures and ICO spot prices, implying that both prices react to the same set of market information. While there is an indication of equilibrium or long-run relationship between ICE Coffee futures (New York) and Arabica producer prices (at farm gate level) in India, the same was not true for Robusta coffee. The absence of co-integration between ICE futures prices (London) and Robusta producer prices in India suggested only a short-run relationship between them. The findings of the study conclude with strong evidence that the farm gate prices in India have been caused by the ICE futures markets, declining the contrary.

WEATHER SHOCKS AND AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICES IN INDIA

2013 ◽  
Vol 04 (03) ◽  
pp. 1350011
Author(s):  
N. R. BHANUMURTHY ◽  
PAMI DUA ◽  
LOKENDRA KUMAWAT
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Commodity Futures ◽  
Price Formation ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Weather Shocks

We analyze the impact of weather shocks on price formation in spot and futures market for food in India where until the recent introduction of commodity futures markets in 2005, the transmission of these shocks to short-term (spot) price movements was unclear. Hitherto, the price discovery mechanism was weak and end price was expected to be different (mostly higher unless some product prices were administered) from the market-clearing price. In addition, this weak mechanism was expected to result in higher price volatility. The introduction of a futures market is expected to reduce risk, a major component in agricultural production as well as in price formation. Though the commodity futures market in India is nascent, we model transmission of weather shocks to futures and spot prices using monthly data. Based on cointegration analysis, our results suggest strong long-run co-movement between futures prices and spot prices for commodities traded in futures markets. Changes in rainfall affect both futures and spot prices with different lags. However, rainfall shocks generate larger responses from futures prices than from spot prices. Although there could be other factors that affect futures prices, after controlling for fuel prices, our results clearly show the transmission mechanism of weather shocks from futures to spot prices. We also explore the changes in responsiveness of prices of major agricultural commodities to rainfall with introduction of futures contracts to facilitate the pass-through of various types of shocks to agricultural commodity prices. Using smooth transition regression, we find that the bivariate relationships between rainfall and prices of rice, wheat and pulses show some nonlinearity with the structural change happening after the introduction of futures market. These relations are found to be much stronger in the post-structural change period that broadly coincides with the introduction of futures market.

Can futures markets accommodate Indian farmers?

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 150-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kushankur Dey ◽  
Debasish Maitra
Keyword(s):  
Futures Markets ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Commodity Futures ◽  
Spot Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Expectation ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Commodity Futures Markets ◽  
Plantation Crops

Purpose It has become an ongoing debate whether Indian commodity futures markets can accommodate farmers. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether Indian commodity futures markets help rationalize farmers’ price expectation. The study starts with questions on the efficiency and other roles of commodity futures markets. Design/methodology/approach From a sectoral standpoint and economic importance, the study considers pepper, coffee, and natural rubber (NR) futures and spot markets. The efficiency of futures markets, divergence/convergence and causality between futures and spot markets have been studied by employing co-integrations, error correction and causality models. The sample period of the data are taken from the inception of futures trading. These three commodities are also compared on the basis of trading at the futures markets vs spot markets. Findings Analysis shows that though pepper futures market is informationally efficient in price discovery, while coffee and NR spot markets do the process faster. Pepper and coffee futures and spot prices exhibit the convergence; NR shows a sign of divergence. Unidirectional causality from pepper futures to spot market is observed wherein the former was weakly exogenous to the latter and while, bidirectional causality is observed in coffee and rubber. Coffee spot appears weakly exogenous while this remains inconclusive in the case of NR. Research limitations/implications The authors analyzed the futures markets in rationalizing the spot market price in three plantation crops in India. In order to make the study more generalizable, further research is warranted in other commodities including those prices of which are government regulated. Originality/value The paper is unique in terms of understanding the interaction or interrelationship between futures markets and spot markets and drawing inferences about the role of futures markets in price formation in plantation commodities like pepper, coffee and NR.

scholarly journals A Study of the Economic Functions of the Maine Potato Futures Market

1980 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-61
Author(s):  
Jeff Sooy ◽  
Ben Branch
Keyword(s):  
Futures Markets ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Extensive Study ◽  
Convincing Evidence ◽  
Recent Time ◽  
The Other ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Maine Potato

In an update and extension of prior work this study found that the potato futures markets continued to provide very unreliable forecasts of subsequent spot prices. On the other hand and contrary to some past studies an extensive study here failed to turn up any convincing evidence of a cobweb pricing relationship. Moreover the increasing volatility of potato futures prices in the more recent time period raises questions regarding their value as hedging vehicles. Finally it is argued that the market's efficiency might be improved by expanding the current Maine potato contract to permit delivery of round white potatoes grown outside Maine.

GREEN OPEN ACCESS IN KENYA: A REVIEW OF THE CONTENT, POLICIES AND USAGE OF INSTITUTIONAL REPOSITORIES

Mousaion ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 25-54
Author(s):  
Wanyenda Leonard Chilimo
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Open Access ◽  
Descriptive Study ◽  
Google Scholar ◽  
Research Institutions ◽  
Journal Articles ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Institutional Repositories ◽  
Current State ◽  
Theses And Dissertations

 There is scant research-based evidence on the development and adoption of open access (OA) and institutional repositories (IRs) in Africa, and in Kenya in particular. This article reports on a study that attempted to fill that gap and provide feedback on the various OA projects and advocacy work currently underway in universities and research institutions in Kenya and in other developing countries. The article presents the findings of a descriptive study that set out to evaluate the current state of IRs in Kenya. Webometric approaches and interviews with IR managers were used to collect the data for the study. The findings showed that Kenya has made some progress in adopting OA with a total of 12 IRs currently listed in the Directory of Open Access Repositories (OpenDOAR) and five mandatory self-archiving policies listed in the Registry of Open Access Repositories Mandatory Archiving Policies (ROARMAP). Most of the IRs are owned by universities where theses and dissertations constitute the majority of the content type followed by journal articles. The results on the usage and impact of materials deposited in Kenyan IRs indicated that the most viewed publications in the repositories also received citations in Google Scholar, thereby signifying their impact and importance. The results also showed that there was a considerable interest in Swahili language publications among users of the repositories in Kenya.

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