scholarly journals Influence of the global environment on capital flows in the London Office market

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olawumi Fadeyi ◽  
Stanley McGreal ◽  
Michael J. McCord ◽  
Jim Berry ◽  
Martin Haran
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Global Environment ◽  
Real Estate Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
International Environment ◽  
Office Market

PurposeThe London office market is a major destination of international real estate capital and arguably the epicentre of international real estate investment over the past decade. However, the increase in global uncertainties in recent years due to socio-economic and political trends highlights the need for more insights into the behaviour of international real estate capital flows. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the influence of the global and domestic environment on international real estate investment activities within the London office market over the period 2007–2017.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopts an auto-regressive distributed lag approach using the real capital analytics (RCA) international real estate investment data. The RCA data analyses quarterly cross-border investment transactions within the central London office market for the period 2007–2017.FindingsThe study provides insights on the critical differences in the influence of the domestic and global environment on cross-border investment activities in this office market, specifically highlighting the significance of the influence of the global environment in the long run. In the short run, the influence of factors reflective of both the domestic and international environment are important indicating that international capital flows into the London office market is contextualised by the interaction of different factors.Originality/valueThe authors provide a holistic study of the influence of both the domestic and international environment on cross-border investment activities in the London office market, providing more insights on the behaviour of global real estate capital flows.

scholarly journals Capital flows and office markets in major global cities

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olawumi Fadeyi ◽  
Stanley McGreal ◽  
Michael McCord ◽  
Jim Berry
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
International Capital Flows ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Office Markets ◽  
Office Market ◽  
Short Run

PurposeOffice markets and particularly international financial centres over the past decade have experienced rapid financialisation, developments and indeed changes in the post-global financial crisis (GFC) landscape. Importantly, the volume and types of international capital flows have witnessed more foreign actors and vehicles entering into the investment landscape with the concentration of investment intensifying within key financial centres. This paper examines the interaction of international real estate capital flows in the London, New York and Tokyo office markets between 2007 and 2017.Design/methodology/approachUsing Real Capital Analytics (RCA) data comprising over 5,700 office property transactions equating to $563bn between 2007 and 2017, the direct global capital flows into the London, New York and Tokyo office markets are assessed using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Further, Granger causality tests are examined to analyse the short-run interaction of international real estate capital flows into these three major office markets.FindingsBy assessing the relativity of internal to external investments in these three central business district (CBD) office markets, differences in market dynamics are highlighted. The London office market is shown to be highly dependent on international flows and the USA, the foremost source of cross-border investment on the global stage. The cointegration and causality analysis indicate that cross-border real estate investment flows in these markets (and financial centres) show both long- and short-run relationships and suggest that the London office market remains more distinct and the most reliant on international capital flows with a wider geographical spread of investment activities and investor types. In the case of New York and Tokyo, these markets appear to be driven by more domestic investment activity and capital seemingly due to subtle factors pertaining to investor home bias, risk aversion and diversification strategies between the markets in the aftermath of the GFC.Originality/valueGiven the importance of the CBD offices in London, New York and Tokyo as an asset class for institutional investors, this paper provides some insights as to their level of connection and the interaction of the international capital flows into these three major cities.

An examination of the structure and dynamics of Singapore's maturing Central Area office market

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 485-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Hin David Ho ◽  
Satyanarain Rengarajan ◽  
John Glascock
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Central Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Office Space ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Office Market ◽  
Office Employment ◽  
Office Rent

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the structure and dynamics of Singapore's Central Area office market. A long-run equilibrium relationship is tested and a short-run adjustment error correction model are estimated, incorporating appropriate serial error correction. The long-run equation is estimated for office rent, with office employment and available stock. Design/methodology/approach – With the vector error correction model (VECM), the lagged rent, available stock, office employment, vacancy and occupied stock (OS) can impact the rental adjustment process. Equilibrium rent on the whole reacts positively to lagged rents, available stock, office employment, OS and negatively to vacancy rates (VC). Past levels of positive change in VC and rental growth can have negative effects on current OS. Findings – While good economic conditions signaled by increases in rents increase the supply of new stock (available space), higher rents and VC dampen the long-term occupied space (space absorption) in accordance with economic theory. Available stock can be forecasted by past rent and absorption levels owing to the developer's profit-driven nature. Research limitations/implications – An understanding of the interaction between the macroeconomic variables and the Central Area office market is useful to domestic and foreign investors and developers, who then can better evaluate their decision making in commercial real estate investment and development projects. Practical implications – It is implicit that the Singapore Central Area office market requires at least a year before any rental increase can potentially dampen the space demanded. Firms are attracted to locate there owing to agglomeration economies and they are willing to pay premium office rents in conjunction with office space intensification in the Central Area. Newly built space is positively affected by past rents. Urban Redevelopment Authority and private real estate developers should be wary of excess office sector vacancies by avoiding over supply, even though an increase in the supply of office space in the Central Area can have a positive impact on office rent in the longer term. Most of the office space development would tend to meet the demand in the long run. Rental stickiness is exemplified as rental changes are affected by lagged rent. Social implications – Policy makers are better enabled to stabilize the office sectors of the real estate market if so required. Originality/value – The paper adopts the VECM and validated by empirical evidence, to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship and short-term corrections underlying the dynamics of the Singapore Central office market. Delay in the restoration of equilibrium in real estate markets is attributed to factors like lease terms and supply lags.

The effect of sentiment on commercial real estate returns: investor and occupier perspectives

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ka Shing Cheung ◽  
Joshua Lee
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Short Sale ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Real Estate Returns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeReal estate is an asset that is traded in highly segmented, illiquid and informationally inefficient local markets. A short sale in real estate is almost infeasible and therefore impedes informed rational arbitrageurs to trade against mispricing. Thus, real estate returns are prone to sentiment-driven behaviours. Will the impacts on asset returns be identical for different types of sentiment?Design/methodology/approachThis study argues that not all sentiment effects are created equal. Using the bounds test of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, this paper examines how occupier sentiment versus investor sentiment contributes to the short-run and long-run dynamics of commercial real estate returns in Australia.FindingsThe empirical evidence suggests that investor sentiment and occupier sentiment influence return asymmetrically after macroeconomic conditions are controlled for.Practical implicationsThe sectoral analysis further reveals that sector-specific sentiment plays a significant role in explaining commercial real estate returns. Furthermore, notable improvement is found in producing more accurate prediction in returns, given that measures of occupier and investor sentiment are appropriately specified in the forecast.Originality/valueThis study is novel in the sense that it acknowledges the impacts of occupiers' and investors' sentiment may be fundamentally different. The unique innovation and contribution of this study to behavioural finance literature are based on a new dataset from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors which includes a survey-based measure of investor sentiment and occupier sentiment.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

scholarly journals Transnational Corruption and the Globalized Individual

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 732-753 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Cooley ◽  
J. C. Sharman
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Transaction Costs ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Citizenship Rights ◽  
Financial Access ◽  
Key Informants ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Main Components ◽  
The Individual

We present a new, more transnational, networked perspective on corruption. It is premised on the importance of professional intermediaries who constitute networks facilitating cross-border illicit finance, the blurring of legal and illegal capital flows, and the globalization of the individual via multiple claims of residence and citizenship. This perspective contrasts with notions of corruption as epitomized by direct, unmediated transfers between bribe-givers and bribe-takers, disproportionately a problem of the developing world, and as bounded within national units. We argue that the professionals in major financial centers serve to lower the transaction costs of transnational corruption by senior foreign officials. Wealthy, politically powerful individuals on the margins of the law are increasingly globalized as they secure financial access, physical residence, and citizenship rights in major OECD countries. These trends are evidenced by an analysis of the main components of the relevant transnational networks: banks, shell companies, foreign real estate, and investor citizenship programs, based on extensive interviews with key informants across multiple sites.

Cross-listing of real estate investment trusts (REITs)

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (5) ◽  
pp. 509-527
Author(s):  
Kim Hin David Ho ◽  
Kwame Addae-Dapaah ◽  
Fang Rui Lina Peck
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Foreign Market ◽  
Real Estate Investment Trusts ◽  
Domestic Market ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Real Estate Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Listing ◽  
Market Beta ◽  
The Cross

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the common stock price reaction and the changes to the risk exposure of the cross-listing for real estate investment trusts (REITs). Design/methodology/approach The paper adopts the event study methodology to assess the abnormal returns (ARs). Pre- and post-cross-listing changes in the risk exposure for the domestic and foreign markets are examined, via a modified two-factor international asset pricing model. A comparison is made for two broad cross-listings, namely, the depositary receipts and the dual ordinary listings, to examine the impacts from institutional differences. Findings Cross-listed REITs generally experience positive and significant ARs throughout the event window, implying significant superior returns associated with the cross-listing for REITs. On systematic risks, REITs exhibit significant decline in their domestic market β coefficients after the cross-listing. However, the foreign market β coefficients do not yield conclusive evidence when compared across the sample. Research limitations/implications Results are consistent with prudential asset allocation for potential diversification gains from the cross-listing, as the reduction from the domestic market beta is more significant than changes in the foreign market beta. Practical implications The results and findings should incentivise REIT managers to explore viable cross-listing. Social implications Such cross-listing for REITs should enhance risk diversification. Originality/value This is a pioneer study on cross-listing of REITs. It provides a basis for investment decision making, and could provoke further research and discussion.

scholarly journals Fiscal federalism and accountability in Nigeria: an ARDL approach

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olabanji Olukayode Ewetan ◽  
Romanus Osabohien ◽  
Oluwatoyin Augustina Matthew ◽  
Abiola Ayopo Babajide ◽  
Ese Urhie
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Fiscal Federalism ◽  
Local Economic Development ◽  
Fiscal Decentralization ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between fiscal federalism and accountability in Nigeria. Corruption is a global plague and is endemic in nature. Several policies have been adopted by the Nigerian Government to institutionalize accountability and combat the scourge of corruption that have hindered socio-economic progress but to no avail. Design/methodology/approach Thus, this study examined fiscal federalism and accountability issues in Nigeria using secondary data and used the auto-regressive distributed lag econometric technique to analyse the data. Findings The results from this study reveal that fiscal federalism fails to mitigate corruption in the long run in Nigeria because of poor bureaucratic quality (BQ) and ineffective law and order (LOR). Social implications Fiscal decentralization must be accompanied by legislations that will strengthen BQ of fiscal institutions at subnational levels and promote effective LOR. Originality/value This study recommends that for fiscal federalism to mitigate corruption in the long run, government must adopt appropriate policies to improve BQ and further strengthen LOR in Nigeria. The finding also suggests that to promote public sector accountability in Nigeria, government should ensure the simultaneous decentralization of expenditure and revenue to lower tiers of government. This study provides detailed empirical evidence that fiscal decentralization without accountability will accentuate public sector corruption, and in the long run, weaken local economic development initiative to boost growth and development.

House price index (HPI) and Covid-19 pandemic shocks: evidence from Turkey and Kazakhstan

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yeşim Aliefendioğlu ◽  
Harun Tanrivermis ◽  
Monsurat Ayojimi Salami
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Data Set ◽  
House Price Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asymmetric Pricing ◽  
Long Run

Purpose This paper aims to investigate asymmetric pricing behaviour and impact of coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic shocks on house price index (HPI) of Turkey and Kazakhstan. Design/methodology/approach Monthly HPIs and consumer price index (CPI) data ranges from 2010M1 to 2020M5 are used. This study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model for empirical analysis. Findings The findings of this study reveal that the Covid-19 pandemic exerted both long-run and short-run asymmetric relationship on HPI of Turkey while in Kazakhstan, the long-run impact of Covid-19 pandemic shock is symmetrical long-run positive effect is similar in both HPI markets. Research limitations/implications The main limitations of this study are the study scope and data set due to data constraint. Several other macroeconomic variables may affect housing prices; however, variables used in this study satisfy the focus of this study in the presence of data constraint. HPI and CPI variables were made available on monthly basis for a considerably longer period which guaranteed the ranges of data set used in this study. Practical implications Despite the limitation, this study provides necessary information for authorities and prospective investors in HPI to make a sound investment decision. Originality/value This is the first study that rigorously and simultaneously examines the pricing behaviour of Turkey and Kazakhstan HPIs in relation to the Covid-19 pandemic shocks at the regional level. HPI of Kazakhstan is recognized in the global real estate transparency index but the study is rare. The study contributes to regional studies on housing price by bridging this gap in the real estate literature.

The capital structure decision of Islamic and conventional banks: empirical evidence from Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Moncef Guizani ◽  
Ahdi Noomen Ajmi
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Decision Criterion ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Leverage Ratio ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
Conventional Banks ◽  
The Capital Structure

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate how Islamic banks (IBs) and conventional banks (CBs) in Malaysia choose their capital structure and what are the most significant factors that affect their decisions regarding their capital structure.Design/methodology/approachThis study applies the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach for a sample of 54 Banks listed on Malaysian stock market over the period 2010–2018.FindingsThe study findings show that the capital structure of IBs appears to be driven by similar factors to those previously found in the corporate finance literature. They also provide evidence of the existence of a long-run and short-run relationship between leverage and its main determinants for Islamic and CBs. However, the results show that various independent variables on the capital structure do exhibit different effects (in magnitude of the coefficient) among Islamic and CBs. Moreover, we find that IBs slowly adjust their capital structure toward the desired leverage ratio than CBs.Research limitations/implicationsThis research contributes to the theory in re-validating capital structure theories on IBs. It helps understand the capital structure of IBs in comparison with CBs. If in conventional finance, the standard presiding decisions of an economic agent is optimizing the risk-return ratio, this standard is not the only or the primary decision criterion in the Islamic finance context where spiritual and theological considerations are taken into consideration.Practical implicationsThis research can contribute to managers in understanding the choice of capital structure for IBs within the bound of Sharia requirement. Such an understanding provides managers with applied knowledge of determining their appropriate capital structure to compete locally and globally in which IBs operate.Originality/valueThis paper offers some insights on the determinants of capital structure by investigating Islamic and CBs. It explores the implication of relevant Islamic principles on capital structure. Moreover, it analyses the determinants of capital structure using ARDL method that permits to identify the short-run and long-run relationships between capital structure and its main determinants.

Underpricing and market timing in SEOs of European REITs and REOCs

2019 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 163-180
Author(s):  
Felix Lorenz
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Lower Cost ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Seasoned Equity Offerings ◽  
Equity Offerings ◽  
Real Estate Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Discounts ◽  
Property Companies ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature on seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) by examining the underpricing of European real estate corporations and identifying determinants explaining the phenomenon of setting the offer price at a discount at SEOs. Design/methodology/approach With a sample of 470 SEOs of European real estate investment trusts (REITs) and real estate operating companies (REOCs) from 2004 to 2018, multivariate regression models are applied to test for theories on the pricing of SEOs. This paper furthermore tests for differences in underpricing for REITs and REOCs as well as specialized and diversified property companies. Findings Significant underpricing of 3.06 percent is found, with REITs (1.90 percent) being statistically less underpriced than REOCs (5.08 percent). The findings support the market timing theory by showing that managers trying to time the equity market gain from lower underpricing. Furthermore, underwritten offerings are more underpriced to reduce the risk of the arranging bank, but top-tier underwriters are able to reduce offer price discounts by being more successful in attracting investors. The results cannot support the value uncertainty hypothesis, but they are in line with placement cost stories. In addition, specialized property companies are subject to lower underpricing. Practical implications An optimal issuance strategy taking into account timing, relative offer size and the choice of the underwriter can minimize the amount of “money left on the table” and therefore contribute to the lower cost of raising capital. Originality/value This is the first study to investigate SEO underpricing for European real estate corporations, pricing differences of REITs and REOCs in seasoned offerings and the effect of market timing on the pricing of SEOs.

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