An examination of the structure and dynamics of Singapore's maturing Central Area office market

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 485-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Hin David Ho ◽  
Satyanarain Rengarajan ◽  
John Glascock
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Central Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Office Space ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Office Market ◽  
Office Employment ◽  
Office Rent

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the structure and dynamics of Singapore's Central Area office market. A long-run equilibrium relationship is tested and a short-run adjustment error correction model are estimated, incorporating appropriate serial error correction. The long-run equation is estimated for office rent, with office employment and available stock. Design/methodology/approach – With the vector error correction model (VECM), the lagged rent, available stock, office employment, vacancy and occupied stock (OS) can impact the rental adjustment process. Equilibrium rent on the whole reacts positively to lagged rents, available stock, office employment, OS and negatively to vacancy rates (VC). Past levels of positive change in VC and rental growth can have negative effects on current OS. Findings – While good economic conditions signaled by increases in rents increase the supply of new stock (available space), higher rents and VC dampen the long-term occupied space (space absorption) in accordance with economic theory. Available stock can be forecasted by past rent and absorption levels owing to the developer's profit-driven nature. Research limitations/implications – An understanding of the interaction between the macroeconomic variables and the Central Area office market is useful to domestic and foreign investors and developers, who then can better evaluate their decision making in commercial real estate investment and development projects. Practical implications – It is implicit that the Singapore Central Area office market requires at least a year before any rental increase can potentially dampen the space demanded. Firms are attracted to locate there owing to agglomeration economies and they are willing to pay premium office rents in conjunction with office space intensification in the Central Area. Newly built space is positively affected by past rents. Urban Redevelopment Authority and private real estate developers should be wary of excess office sector vacancies by avoiding over supply, even though an increase in the supply of office space in the Central Area can have a positive impact on office rent in the longer term. Most of the office space development would tend to meet the demand in the long run. Rental stickiness is exemplified as rental changes are affected by lagged rent. Social implications – Policy makers are better enabled to stabilize the office sectors of the real estate market if so required. Originality/value – The paper adopts the VECM and validated by empirical evidence, to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship and short-term corrections underlying the dynamics of the Singapore Central office market. Delay in the restoration of equilibrium in real estate markets is attributed to factors like lease terms and supply lags.

Modeling the Dynamics of the Hong Kong Office Market under Economic Structural Change

10.1068/b3198 ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Winky K O Ho
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Adjustment Mechanism ◽  
Office Space ◽  
Office Market ◽  
Office Employment ◽  
Office Rent ◽  
The One ◽  
Shed Light

The author adopts reduced-form equilibrium models to investigate the relations among vacancy, employment, space consumption, and rent in the Hong Kong office market under economic structural change. The models are estimated with the aid of data from Hong Kong during the period 1980–2002—a total of twenty-three yearly observations. It is hoped that empirical results will shed light on the adjustment mechanism of the local office market. In line with the existing literature, the author shows that, on the one hand, office rent is positively related to office employment, but inversely related to office stock. On the other hand, the demand for office space is inversely related to rent, but positively related to office employment. Moreover, the elasticity of space consumption with respect to rent is estimated to be inelastic. Historical simulations of the model are performed, and it is suggested that the equations simulate reasonably well as indicated by Theil's inequality.

scholarly journals An analysis of IT software and service exports from India

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-25
Author(s):  
Manzoor Hassan Malik ◽  
Nirmala Velan
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
External Demand ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Given ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

PurposeThe aims of the paper are to investigate IT software and service export function for India. First, cointegration tests have been used to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship of the given variables. Second, long-run coefficients and associated error correction mechanism are estimated.Design/methodology/approachAnnual time series data on IT software and service exports, human capital, exchange rate, investment in IT, external demand and openness index have been used for the present study during the period 1980–2017. The data are collected from the National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASSCOM), Planning Commission of India, University Grants Commission (UGC) of India, real effective exchange rate (REER) database and World Bank development indicators. Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is used to analyze both short-run and long-run dynamic behaviour of economic variables with appropriate asymptotic inferences.FindingsResults of the analysis show the stable long-run equilibrium relationship among the given variables. It is found that external demand, exchange rate, human capital and openness index have a substantial long-run impact on the IT software and service exports. We also found that the coefficient of error correction term is negative and significant at 1% of the level of significance, which confirms the existence of stable long-run relationship which means adjustment will take place when there is a short-run deviation to its long-run equilibrium after a shock.Research limitations/implicationsThere may be other determinants of software and service exports apart from those considered by the present study. Due to the non-availability of data, the study considers only important determinants that determine the software and service exports in India. The IT exports are an emerging and dynamic field of economic activity and the rate of change is so rapid that the relevance of individual factors may change over time. The study period is also limited to available data.Practical implicationsThe paper has implications for achieving sustainability in IT software and service exports growth. It is recommended that policies directed at improving the performance of IT software and service exports should largely consider the long-run behaviour of these variables.Originality/valueThis paper focuses on originality in the analysis of the relationship among the given variables including IT software and service exports, human capital, exchange rate, investment in IT, external demand and openness index in India. All the work has been done in original by the authors, and the work used has been acknowledged properly.

An urban growth model of office property development

Facilities ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (11/12) ◽  
pp. 647-674 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jayantha Wadu Mesthrige
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Theoretical Treatment ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Usage Pattern ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Floor Space ◽  
Office Space ◽  
Office Market ◽  
Office Development

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to estimate an empirical model for new office space development starts, based on the theoretical treatment of urban growth. The study introduces a new parameter, namely, office space-usage pattern, to the office space development equation and tests whether developers respond to non-price measures in deciding to commence new developments. Design/methodology/approach – The study first introduces a co-integration approach based on an error correction model to test for long-run relations and short-run dynamics of new office space development. A multivariate regression model is then introduced to identify significant determinants that influence office development starts. The study uses annual data over a time span of 30 years. Findings – Estimated results provide strong evidence that the newly introduced parameter exerts a positive impact on new office space development. It suggests that if the average floor space per employee changes by one percentage point, new office development starts would change by 1.5 percentage point, indicating even a marginal change in floor-space usage per employee (SPE) would have a significant impact on new office space development. Empirical estimates also suggest a strong response of office development starts to the lagged land supply and office space stock. Research limitations/implications – The paper raises the concern about the importance of non-price measures of the supply-side of the office market. There is scope to address the research questions using better data sets. It is also possible to model the supply adjustment process more dynamically in an error correction framework. Practical implications – The findings would suggest that non-price measures, such as space-usage pattern, need to be taken into account when planning and estimating future office space needs. This finding provides valuable insight for our current knowledge on factors affecting new office supply. Originality/value – This is the first study to introduce office floor space usage as a determinant of office development starts in an urban growth conceptual framework for the Hong Kong office market.

scholarly journals Are corporate office buildings priced differently?

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 348-365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Odilon Costa ◽  
Franz Fuerst ◽  
Wesley Mendes-da-Silva
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Local Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Segmented Markets ◽  
Property Type ◽  
Real Estate Valuation ◽  
Office Market ◽  
Office Rent ◽  
Average Size ◽  
Corporate Office

Purpose While broader property-type categories of real estate markets have been scrutinized at microeconomic level in some segments – namely, residential, retail, industrial and hospitality, there is limited evidence showing that local office markets can be viewed as monolithic and economically integrated entities. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how occupiers differ in their willingness to pay for principal office rent determinants in the corporate and non-corporate sectors. Design/methodology/approach A sample of properties located in the largest office market in Latin America is partitioned based on the average size of leasable units. This approach captures interactions between different groups of investors and occupiers, and is commonly adopted by local market practitioners due to lack of detailed information on market participants. The pricing schedules for these two groups of buildings are then empirically compared through hedonic regression analysis and parameter stability tests. Findings The regressions show that corporate and smaller occupier properties form distinct spatial and non-spatial submarkets, but that their temporal patterns are quite similar. Thus, these property-type segments can be classified as imperfect substitutes with distinct pricing schemes, but not as a unique market, as their pricing schedules are not generalizable. Practical implications The results imply that “office properties” are too complex and disparate to be reliably examined with a simple aggregate approach as practiced in developed office market research since the 1980s. The fragmented reality of office properties has important implications for investment decisions and real estate valuation. Originality/value This paper shows that the corporate office market exhibits distinct characteristics and key determinants of office price and rent valuation differ significantly between the corporate and non-corporate segments. The corollary of these findings is that market studies that require reliable estimates of price drivers may be enriched by modeling these two segmented markets separately. It is also important to note that this distinction cuts across the established A/B/C office space quality classification.

scholarly journals Influence of the global environment on capital flows in the London Office market

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olawumi Fadeyi ◽  
Stanley McGreal ◽  
Michael J. McCord ◽  
Jim Berry ◽  
Martin Haran
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Global Environment ◽  
Real Estate Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
International Environment ◽  
Office Market

PurposeThe London office market is a major destination of international real estate capital and arguably the epicentre of international real estate investment over the past decade. However, the increase in global uncertainties in recent years due to socio-economic and political trends highlights the need for more insights into the behaviour of international real estate capital flows. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the influence of the global and domestic environment on international real estate investment activities within the London office market over the period 2007–2017.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopts an auto-regressive distributed lag approach using the real capital analytics (RCA) international real estate investment data. The RCA data analyses quarterly cross-border investment transactions within the central London office market for the period 2007–2017.FindingsThe study provides insights on the critical differences in the influence of the domestic and global environment on cross-border investment activities in this office market, specifically highlighting the significance of the influence of the global environment in the long run. In the short run, the influence of factors reflective of both the domestic and international environment are important indicating that international capital flows into the London office market is contextualised by the interaction of different factors.Originality/valueThe authors provide a holistic study of the influence of both the domestic and international environment on cross-border investment activities in the London office market, providing more insights on the behaviour of global real estate capital flows.

House price index (HPI) and Covid-19 pandemic shocks: evidence from Turkey and Kazakhstan

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yeşim Aliefendioğlu ◽  
Harun Tanrivermis ◽  
Monsurat Ayojimi Salami
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Data Set ◽  
House Price Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asymmetric Pricing ◽  
Long Run

Purpose This paper aims to investigate asymmetric pricing behaviour and impact of coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic shocks on house price index (HPI) of Turkey and Kazakhstan. Design/methodology/approach Monthly HPIs and consumer price index (CPI) data ranges from 2010M1 to 2020M5 are used. This study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model for empirical analysis. Findings The findings of this study reveal that the Covid-19 pandemic exerted both long-run and short-run asymmetric relationship on HPI of Turkey while in Kazakhstan, the long-run impact of Covid-19 pandemic shock is symmetrical long-run positive effect is similar in both HPI markets. Research limitations/implications The main limitations of this study are the study scope and data set due to data constraint. Several other macroeconomic variables may affect housing prices; however, variables used in this study satisfy the focus of this study in the presence of data constraint. HPI and CPI variables were made available on monthly basis for a considerably longer period which guaranteed the ranges of data set used in this study. Practical implications Despite the limitation, this study provides necessary information for authorities and prospective investors in HPI to make a sound investment decision. Originality/value This is the first study that rigorously and simultaneously examines the pricing behaviour of Turkey and Kazakhstan HPIs in relation to the Covid-19 pandemic shocks at the regional level. HPI of Kazakhstan is recognized in the global real estate transparency index but the study is rare. The study contributes to regional studies on housing price by bridging this gap in the real estate literature.

Stage-I Shariah compliant Macaulay’s duration model testing

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Alamdar Ali Shah ◽  
Raditya Sukmana ◽  
Bayu Arie Fianto
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Duration Models ◽  
Duration Model ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Econometric Methodology ◽  
Significant Factors

Purpose The purpose of this study is to develop, test and examine econometric methodology for Sharīʿah-compliant duration models of Islamic banks. Design/methodology/approach The research evaluates all existing duration models from Sharīʿah’s perspective and develops a four-stage framework for testing Sharīʿah-compliant duration models. The econometric methodology consists of multiple regression, Johansen co-integration, error correction model, vector error correction model (VECM) and threshold vector error models (TVECM). Findings Regressions analysis suggests that returns on earning assets and interbank offered rates are significant factors for calculating the duration of earning assets, whereas returns paid on return bearing liabilities and average interbank rates of deposits are significant factors for duration of return bearing liabilities. VECM suggests that short run duration converges into long run duration and TVECM suggests that management of assets and liabilities also plays a significant role that can bring about a change of about 15% in respective durations. Practical implications Sharīʿah-compliant duration models will improve risk and Sharīʿah efficiency, which will ultimately improve market capitalization and returns stability of Islamic banks in the long run. Originality/value Sharīʿah-compliant duration models testing provides insight into how various factors, namely, rates of return, benchmark rates and managerial skills of Islamic bank risk managers impact durations of assets and liabilities. It also explains the future course of action for Sharīʿah-compliant duration model testing.

Exports, financial development and economic growth in Pakistan

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahbaz ◽  
Mohammad Mafizur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run

Purpose – This paper aims to explore the relationship between exports, financial development and economic growth in case of Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach – The autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction model are applied to test the long-run and short-run relationships, respectively. The direction of causality between the variables is investigated by the vector error correction model Granger causality test and robustness of causality analysis is tested by applying innovative accounting approach. Findings – The analysis confirms cointegration for the long-run relation between exports, economic growth and financial development in case of Pakistan. The results indicate that economic growth and financial development spur exports growth in Pakistan. The causality analysis reveals feedback hypothesis that exists between financial development and economic growth, financial development and exports, and, exports and economic growth. Originality/value – This study provides new insights for policy makers to sustain exports growth by stimulating economic growth and developing financial sector in Pakistan.

An empirical note on entrepreneurship and unemployment

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Apergis ◽  
James E Payne
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Entrepreneurial Activity ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Capita Personal Income

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to extend the existing literature on the causal dynamics between entrepreneurship and the unemployment rate (UR) in the use of the Kauffman Foundation index of entrepreneurial activity. Design/methodology/approach – Recently developed panel unit root tests with recognition of cross-sectional dependence and panel cointegration/error correction modeling techniques are applied to US States. Findings – The results indicate that the rate of entrepreneurship, the UR, and real per capita personal income are cointegrated. The panel error correction model reveals that bidirectional causality exists among the variables in both the short run and long run. With respect to entrepreneurship, an increase in the UR increases the rate of entrepreneurship, in turn, an increase in the rate of entrepreneurship lowers the UR. Moreover, the results also show a positive bidirectional relationship between the rate of entrepreneurship and real per capita personal income. Originality/value – Unlike other standard measures of entrepreneurship, this is the first empirical study of the causal dynamics between entrepreneurship and the UR using the Kauffman Foundation index of entrepreneurial activity.

Determinants of capital structure; a sector-level analysis for Indian manufacturing firms

2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (5) ◽  
pp. 1033-1060 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajaya Kumar Panda ◽  
Swagatika Nanda
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium ◽  
Non Parametric

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the determinants of capital structure and their long-run equilibrium relationships with firm-specific and macroeconomic indicators for Indian manufacturing firms.Design/methodology/approachThe study is conducted using the panel semi-parametric and non-parametric regression models to identify the key determinants of capital structure. Panel cointegration models are also employed for analyzing the long-run equilibrium association of capital structure with its determinants.FindingsThe study finds that each manufacturing sector has unique determinants of capital structure. The debt level is significantly affected by asset tangibility, growth opportunity, effective tax rate, non-debt tax shield, cash flow, profitability, firm size, foreign investment, government borrowing, economic growth, and interest rate. All these firm-specific and macroeconomic variables have strong long-run equilibrium relationship with capital structure as a whole.Practical Implication of the StudyThe study analyzes the determinants of capital structure for eight manufacturing sectors of India, which helps firm managers and policy-makers to identify appropriate factors that maximize firm value. The sector-specific features of firms may lead to a new path with regard to corporate governance and ownership structure to enhance stakeholder's satisfaction.Originality/valueThe use of semi-parametric and non-parametric panel regression models to analyze the determinants of capital structure, and the use of panel cointegration approach to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship between the determinants and its factors are the unique contributions of the present research.

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