Remaining useful life estimation of metropolitan train wheels considering measurement error

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 422-436 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zengqiang Jiang ◽  
Dragan Banjevic ◽  
Mingcheng E. ◽  
Andrew Jardine ◽  
Qi Li
Keyword(s):  
Measurement Error ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
State Space Model ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
The Body ◽  
Discrete State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Useful Life

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop an approach for estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of metropolitan train wheels considering measurement error. Design/methodology/approach The paper proposes a wear model of a metropolitan train wheel based on a discrete state space model; the model considers the wheel’s stochastic degradation and measurement error simultaneously. The paper estimates the RUL on the basis of the estimated degradation state. Finally, it presents a case study to verify the proposed approach. The results indicate that the proposed method is superior to methods that do not consider measurement error and can improve the accuracy of the estimated RUL. Findings RUL estimation is a key issue in condition-based maintenance and prognostics and health management. With the rapid development of advanced sensor technologies and data acquisition facilities for the maintenance of metropolitan train wheels, condition monitoring (CM) is becoming more accurate and more affordable, creating the possibility of estimating the RUL of wheels using CM data. However, the measurements of the wheels, especially the wayside measurements, are not yet precise enough. On the other hand, few existing studies of the RUL estimation of train wheels consider measurement error. Practical implications The approach described in this paper will make the RUL estimation of metropolitan train wheels easier and more precise. Originality/value Hundreds of million yuan are wasted every year due to over re-profiling of rail wheels in China. The ability to precisely estimate RUL will reduce the number of re-profiling activities and achieve significant economic benefits. More generally, the paper could enrich the body of knowledge of RUL estimation for a slowly degrading system considering measurement error.

Implementation of a new inlet protection system into HEMS fleet

2020 ◽  
Vol 92 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-79
Author(s):  
Bartosz Stanisław Przybyła ◽  
Radoslaw Przysowa ◽  
Zbigniew Zapałowicz
Keyword(s):  
Health Management ◽  
Particle Separation ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Operational Experience ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Dust Ingestion ◽  
Selection Of

Purpose EC-135P2+ helicopters operated by Polish Medical Air Rescue are highly exposed to environmental particles entering engines when performing helicopter emergency medical services. This paper aims to assess the effectiveness of inlet barrier filters installed to protect the engines, including their impact on maintenance. Design/methodology/approach The organisation adopted a comprehensive set of measures to predict and limit the impact of dust ingestion including visual inspections, health management and engine trend monitoring based on ground power checks’ (GPC) results. Three alternative particle separation solutions were considered. Finally, helicopter inlets were modified to allow the selected filter system to be installed, which reduced the number of particles ingested by the engine and prevented from premature overhauls. Findings The analyses carried out enabled not only the selection of the optimal filtration solution and its seamless implementation into the fleet but also confirmed its efficiency. After installing the filters, engines’ lifetime is extended from 500 to 4,500 flight hours while operating costs and the number of maintenance tasks was reduced significantly. Originality/value Lessons learned from operational experience show that a well-matched particle separation system can mitigate accelerated engine deterioration even if the platform is continuously exposed to environmental particles. The remaining useful life of engines can be predicted using performance models and data from GPC.

Physics-based integrated vehicle health management system for predicting the remaining useful life of an aircraft planetary gear transmission

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 484-495 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrian Cubillo ◽  
Jeroen Vermeulen ◽  
Marcos Rodriguez de la Peña ◽  
Ignacio Collantes Casanova ◽  
Suresh Perinpanayagam
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Management System ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Metal Contact ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Metal Metal ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Aircraft System ◽  
Planetary Transmission

Purpose Integrated vehicle health management has been developed for several years in different industries, to be able to provide the required inputs to determine the optimal maintenance operations depending on the actual health status of the system. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the potential of a physics-based model (PbM) for prognostics with a real case study, based on the detection of incipient faults and estimate the remaining useful life of a planetary transmission of an aircraft system. Design/methodology/approach Most of the research in the area of health assessment algorithms has been focused on data-driven approaches that are not based on the knowledge of the physics of the system, while PbM approaches rely on the understanding of the system and the degradation mechanisms. A physics-based modelling approach to represent metal-metal contact and fatigue in the gears of the planetary transmission of an aircraft system is applied. Findings Both the failure mode caused by metal-metal contact as caused by fatigue in the gears is described. Furthermore, the real-time application that retrieves the results from the simulations to assess the health of the system is described. Finally the decision making that can be executed during flight in the aircraft is incorporated. Originality/value The paper proposes an innovative prognostics health management system that assesses two important failure modes of the planetary transmission that regulates the speed of the generators of an aircraft. The results from the models have been integrated in an application that emulates a real system in the aircraft and computes the remaining useful life in real time.

Remaining useful life estimation: a review on stochastic process-based approaches

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dangbo Du ◽  
Jianxun Zhang ◽  
Xiaosheng Si ◽  
Changhua Hu
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Inverse Gaussian ◽  
Life Estimation ◽  
Inverse Gaussian Process ◽  
Pros And Cons ◽  
Useful Life

Background: Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is the central mission to the complex systems’ prognostics and health management. During last decades, numbers of developments and applications of the RUL estimation have proliferated. Objective: As one of the most popular approaches, stochastic process-based approach has been widely used for characterizing the degradation trajectories and estimating RULs. This paper aimed at reviewing the latest methods and patents on this topic. Methods: The review is concentrated on four common stochastic processes for degradation modelling and RUL estimation, i.e., Gamma process, Wiener process, inverse Gaussian process and Markov chain. Results: After a briefly review of these four models, we pointed out the pros and cons of them, as well as the improvement direction of each method. Conclusion: For better implementation, the applications of these four approaches on maintenance and decision-making are systematically introduced. Finally, the possible future trends are concluded tentatively.

Bibliometric analysis and critical review of the research on big data in the construction industry

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yusheng Lu ◽  
Jiantong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Bibliometric Analysis ◽  
Critical Review ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Heterogeneous Data ◽  
The Body ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Temporal And Spatial Distribution ◽  
Content Type

PurposeThe digital revolution and the use of big data (BD) in particular has important applications in the construction industry. In construction, massive amounts of heterogeneous data need to be analyzed to improve onsite efficiency. This article presents a systematic review and identifies future research directions, presenting valuable conclusions derived from rigorous bibliometric tools. The results of this study may provide guidelines for construction engineering and global policymaking to change the current low-efficiency of construction sites.Design/methodology/approachThis study identifies research trends from 1,253 peer-reviewed papers, using general statistics, keyword co-occurrence analysis, critical review, and qualitative-bibliometric techniques in two rounds of search.FindingsThe number of studies in this area rapidly increased from 2012 to 2020. A significant number of publications originated in the UK, China, the US, and Australia, and the smallest number from one of these countries is more than twice the largest number in the remaining countries. Keyword co-occurrence is divided into three clusters: BD application scenarios, emerging technology in BD, and BD management. Currently developing approaches in BD analytics include machine learning, data mining, and heuristic-optimization algorithms such as graph convolutional, recurrent neural networks and natural language processes (NLP). Studies have focused on safety management, energy reduction, and cost prediction. Blockchain integrated with BD is a promising means of managing construction contracts.Research limitations/implicationsThe study of BD is in a stage of rapid development, and this bibliometric analysis is only a part of the necessary practical analysis.Practical implicationsNational policies, temporal and spatial distribution, BD flow are interpreted, and the results of this may provide guidelines for policymakers. Overall, this work may develop the body of knowledge, producing a reference point and identifying future development.Originality/valueTo our knowledge, this is the first bibliometric review of BD in the construction industry. This study can also benefit construction practitioners by providing them a focused perspective of BD for emerging practices in the construction industry.

Application of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) to Software System Fault and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Rubyet Islam ◽  
Peter Sandborn
Keyword(s):  
Health Management ◽  
Standard Test ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Software Systems ◽  
Prognostics And Health Management ◽  
Performance Parameters ◽  
Statistical Validation ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Test Beds

Abstract Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is an engineering discipline focused on predicting the point at which systems or components will no longer perform as intended. The prediction is often articulated as a Remaining Useful Life (RUL). RUL is an important decision-making tool for contingency mitigation, i.e., the prediction of an RUL (and its associated confidence) enables decisions to be made about how and when to maintain the system. PHM is generally applied to hardware systems in the electronics and non-electronics application domains. The application of PHM (and RUL) concepts has not been explored for application to software. Today, software (SW) health management is confined to diagnostic assessments that identify problems, whereas prognostic assessment potentially indicates when in the future a problem will become detrimental to the operation of the system. Relevant areas such as SW defect prediction, SW reliability prediction, predictive maintenance of SW, SW degradation, and SW performance prediction, exist, but all represent static models, built upon historical data — none of which can calculate an RUL. This paper addresses the application of PHM concepts to software systems for fault predictions and RUL estimation. Specifically, we wish to address how PHM can be used to make decisions for SW systems such as version update, module changes, rejuvenation, maintenance scheduling and abandonment. This paper presents a method to prognostically and continuously predict the RUL of a SW system based on usage parameters (e.g., numbers and categories of releases) and multiple performance parameters (e.g., response time). The model is validated based on actual data (on performance parameters), generated by the test beds versus predicted data, generated by a predictive model. Statistical validation (regression validation) has been carried out as well. The test beds replicate and validate faults, collected from a real application, in a controlled and standard test (staging) environment. A case study based on publicly available data on faults and enhancement requests for the open-source Bugzilla application is presented. This case study demonstrates that PHM concepts can be applied to SW systems and RUL can be calculated to make decisions on software version update or upgrade, module changes, rejuvenation, maintenance schedule and total abandonment.

Prognostics Health Management Model for LED Package Failure Under Contaminated Environment

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pradeep Lall ◽  
Hao Zhang ◽  
Lynn Davis
Keyword(s):  
Health Management ◽  
Luminous Flux ◽  
The State ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Integrating Sphere ◽  
State Estimator ◽  
Acceptable Error ◽  
Color Shift ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
The Impact

The reliability consideration of LED products includes both luminous flux drop and color shift. Previous research either talks about luminous maintenance or color shift, because luminous flux degradation usually takes very long time to observe. In this paper, the impact of a VOC (volatile organic compound) contaminated luminous flux and color stability are examined. As a result, both luminous degradation and color shift had been recorded in a short time. Test samples are white, phosphor-converted, high-power LED packages. Absolute radiant flux is measured with integrating sphere system to calculate the luminous flux. Luminous flux degradation and color shift distance were plotted versus aging time to show the degradation pattern. A prognostic health management (PHM) method based on the state variables and state estimator have been proposed in this paper. In this PHM framework, unscented kalman filter (UKF) was deployed as the carrier of all states. During the estimation process, third order dynamic transfer function was used to implement the PHM framework. Both of the luminous flux and color shift distance have been used as the state variable with the same PHM framework to exam the robustness of the method. Predicted remaining useful life is calculated at every measurement point to compare with the tested remaining useful life. The result shows that state estimator can be used as the method for the PHM of LED degradation with respect to both luminous flux and color shift distance. The prediction of remaining useful life of LED package, made by the states estimator and data driven approach, falls in the acceptable error-bounds (20%) after a short training of the estimator.

scholarly journals Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Rotating Machinery Based on Optimal Degradation Indicator

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aisong Qin ◽  
Qinghua Zhang ◽  
Qin Hu ◽  
Guoxi Sun ◽  
Jun He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Management ◽  
Rotating Machinery ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Programming Algorithm ◽  
Wiener Model ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Degradation Modeling ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Degradation Indicator

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction can provide early warnings of failure and has become a key component in the prognostics and health management of systems. Among the existing methods for RUL prediction, the Wiener-process-based method has attracted great attention owing to its favorable properties and flexibility in degradation modeling. However, shortcomings exist in methods of this type; for example, the degradation indicator and the first predicting time (FPT) are selected subjectively, which reduces the prediction accuracy. Toward this end, this paper proposes a new approach for predicting the RUL of rotating machinery based on an optimal degradation indictor. First, a genetic programming algorithm is proposed to construct an optimal degradation indicator using the concept of FPT. Then, a Wiener model based on the obtained optimal degradation indicator is proposed, in which the sensitivities of the dimensionless parameters are utilized to determine the FPT. Finally, the expectation of the predicted RUL is calculated based on the proposed model, and the estimated mean degradation path is explicitly derived. To demonstrate the validity of this model, several experiments on RUL prediction are conducted on rotating machinery. The experimental results indicate that the method can effectively improve the accuracy of RUL prediction.

Aircraft Fleet Maintenance Planning Using Combined Cost Benefit Model and Branch and Bound

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Behnam Razavi ◽  
Farrokh Sassani
Keyword(s):  
Branch And Bound ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Maintenance Planning ◽  
Flight Delays ◽  
Engine Operation ◽  
Maintenance And Repair ◽  
Flight Schedules ◽  
Useful Life

The tasks of maintenance and repair without optimal planning can be costly and result in prolonged maintenance times, reduced availability and possible flight delays. Aircraft manufacturers and maintainers see significant benefits in constantly improving Health Management and Maintenance (HMM) practices by deploying the most effective maintenance planning strategies. The planning of the maintenance and repair is a complex task due to chain dependency of engines to aircraft, and aircraft to the flight schedules. This paper presents a scheduling method for determining the time of maintenance based on the historical engine operation data in order to maximize the use of estimated remaining useful life of the engines as well as lowering the cost and duration of the downtime. The Time-on-Wing (TOW) data is used in conjunction with probability density functions to determine the shape of the respective distribution of the time of maintenance to minimize the loss of expected remaining useful life. Data from each engine with most chance of failure is then selected and fed into an extended Branch and Bound (B&B) routine to determine the best optimum sequence for entering the facility in order to minimize the waiting time.

scholarly journals Deep-Learning-Based Remaining Useful Life Prediction Based on a Multi-Scale Dilated Convolution Network

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (23) ◽  
pp. 3035
Author(s):  
Feiyue Deng ◽  
Yan Bi ◽  
Yongqiang Liu ◽  
Shaopu Yang
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Operational Efficiency ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Convolution Kernel ◽  
Training Time ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Dilated Convolution ◽  
Convolution Kernels ◽  
Useful Life

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of key components is an important influencing factor in making accurate maintenance decisions for mechanical systems. With the rapid development of deep learning (DL) techniques, the research on RUL prediction based on the data-driven model is increasingly widespread. Compared with the conventional convolution neural networks (CNNs), the multi-scale CNNs can extract different-scale feature information, which exhibits a better performance in the RUL prediction. However, the existing multi-scale CNNs employ multiple convolution kernels with different sizes to construct the network framework. There are two main shortcomings of this approach: (1) the convolution operation based on multiple size convolution kernels requires enormous computation and has a low operational efficiency, which severely restricts its application in practical engineering. (2) The convolutional layer with a large size convolution kernel needs a mass of weight parameters, leading to a dramatic increase in the network training time and making it prone to overfitting in the case of small datasets. To address the above issues, a multi-scale dilated convolution network (MsDCN) is proposed for RUL prediction in this article. The MsDCN adopts a new multi-scale dilation convolution fusion unit (MsDCFU), in which the multi-scale network framework is composed of convolution operations with different dilated factors. This effectively expands the range of receptive field (RF) for the convolution kernel without an additional computational burden. Moreover, the MsDCFU employs the depthwise separable convolution (DSC) to further improve the operational efficiency of the prognostics model. Finally, the proposed method was validated with the accelerated degradation test data of rolling element bearings (REBs). The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed MSDCN has a higher RUL prediction accuracy compared to some typical CNNs and better operational efficiency than the existing multi-scale CNNs based on different convolution kernel sizes.

scholarly journals Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Aircraft Engines Using a Joint Deep Learning Model Based on TCNN and Transformer

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Hai-Kun Wang ◽  
Yi Cheng ◽  
Ke Song
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Working Conditions ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Aircraft Engines ◽  
Key Technology ◽  
Life Estimation ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
New Generation ◽  
Deep Learning Model

The remaining useful life estimation is a key technology in prognostics and health management (PHM) systems for a new generation of aircraft engines. With the increase in massive monitoring data, it brings new opportunities to improve the prediction from the perspective of deep learning. Therefore, we propose a novel joint deep learning architecture that is composed of two main parts: the transformer encoder, which uses scaled dot-product attention to extract dependencies across distances in time series, and the temporal convolution neural network (TCNN), which is constructed to fix the insensitivity of the self-attention mechanism to local features. Both parts are jointly trained within a regression module, which implies that the proposed approach differs from traditional ensemble learning models. It is applied on the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) dataset from the Prognostics Center of Excellence at NASA Ames, and satisfactory results are obtained, especially under complex working conditions.

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