scholarly journals Crisis decision-making: the overlap between intuitive and analytical strategies

2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (5) ◽  
pp. 1122-1134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin Okoli ◽  
John Watt

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to draw on the naturalistic decision making and cognitive science literature to examine how experienced crisis managers utilize the intuitive and analytical strategies when managing complex incidents. A cognitive model that describes the interplay between strategies is presented and discussed, and the specific role that intuition plays in analytical decision making is addressed. Design/methodology/approach Designed as a conceptual paper, the extant literature is reviewed to advance discussions on the theme of intuitive and analytical decision making in the naturalistic environment. A new model of expert intuition – the information filtering and intuitive decision model – is presented and evaluated against existing cognitive models from the wider literature. Findings The paper suggests that experts’ ability to make intuitive decisions is strongly hinged on their information processing skills that allow irrelevant cues to be sifted out while the relevant cues are retained. The paper further revealed that experts generally employ the intuitive mode as their default strategy, drawing on the analytical mode only as conditions warrant. Originality/value Prior research has shown that experts often make important task decisions using intuitive or analytical strategies or by combining both, but the sequence these should typically follow is still unresolved. Findings from the intuition model reveal that although intuition often precedes analytical thinking in almost all cases, both strategies exist to offer significant values to decision makers if the basis of their application is well understood.

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 88-107
Author(s):  
Elpiniki Spanoudaki ◽  
Maria Ioannou ◽  
John Synnott ◽  
Calli Tzani-Pepelasi ◽  
Ntaniella Roumpini Pylarinou

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore investigative decision-making processes in the context of major crimes as experienced by the law enforcement agents.Design/methodology/approachEpisodic interviews were conducted with six agents from medium-sized police forces in the UK. Following the framework of naturalistic inquiry, qualitative content analysis took place with the assistance of Atlas.ti software. To ensure the validity of findings, the within method triangulation was preferred, by additionally analysing the interview transcripts with Alceste.FindingsFindings from this study revealed a variety of internal factors at play, shaping the decision-making course into an act of balancing various desired goals. Detectives appear to assess a situation based on their experiences confirming that the naturalistic decision-making model may assist in understanding investigative decision-making.Research limitations/implicationsDue to the busy schedule of law enforcement agents the number of participants was limited and availability difficult; therefore, this study can be thought of as a pilot study that will inspire researchers to use the same method for in-depth understanding of investigative decision-making.Practical implicationsResults captured the ill-defined goals in the police environment and provided ways of decreasing their impact on investigative decision-making thus should help detectives to understand their decision-making limitations and strengths.Social implicationsThis project will enhance the psychological understanding of investigative decision-making.Originality/valueThis project assists in understanding the psychological aspect of investigative decision-making during police duty and provides the opportunity to law enforcement agents to re-evaluate situations in order to improve the investigative decision-making process; while adds to existing literature.


Author(s):  
Bryan Vila ◽  
Stephen James ◽  
Lois James

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop and describe the implementation of a novel method for creating interval-level metrics for objectively assessing police officer behaviors during an encounter with the public. These behaviors constitute officer performance and affect the probability of desirable encounter outcomes. The metrics measure concrete, micro-level performance in the common types of complex, dynamic, and low-information police-public encounters that often require immediate action using “naturalistic” decision making. Difficulty metrics also were developed to control for situational variability. The utility of measuring what officers do vs probabilistic outcomes is explored with regard to informing policymaking, field practice, and training. Design/methodology/approach Metric sets were developed separately for three types of police-public encounters: deadly force judgment and decision making, cross-cultural tactical social interaction, and crisis intervention. In each, “reverse concept mapping” was used with a different diverse focus group of “true experts” to authoritatively deconstruct implicit concepts and derive important variables. Variables then were scaled with Thurstone’s method using 198 diverse expert trainers to create interval-level metrics for performance and situational difficulty. Metric utility was explored during two experimental laboratory studies and in response to a problematic police encounter. Findings Objective, interval-level metric sets were developed for measuring micro-level police performance and encounter difficulty. Validation and further refinement are required. Research limitations/implications This novel method provides a practical way to rapidly develop metrics that measure micro-level performance during police-public encounters much more precisely than was previously possible. Originality/value The metrics developed provide a foundation for measuring officers’ performance as they exercise discretion, engage people, and affect perceptions of police legitimacy.


2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 162-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sujit Sur

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate a team dynamics based approach to assess board effectiveness, namely the interplay between boardroom decision-making processes and the board members' cognitive mental models. Design/methodology/approach – A socio-cognitive perspective is utilized for analyzing board processes and determining board effectiveness. Utilizing the concepts of team mental models and sensemaking, a theoretically grounded model of board effectiveness is developed, wherein the propositions predict the causality and effect of the socio-cognitive and sensemaking processes on board effectiveness. Findings – The proposed model is able to analyze the relationship among the different decision-making processes and members' cognitive models as determinants of board effectiveness, wherein the board's decision making process mediates the board's cognitive model – effectiveness relationship, while the board's cognitive model moderates the decision process – effectiveness relationship. Research limitations/implications – The conceptual model advances a rationale that might explain the mixed or modest findings in literature on the relationship between board demographics, dynamics and effectiveness. Practical implications – The model allows practitioners and policy makers an alternative mechanism to assess board effectiveness, that is able to not only integrate the demographic, diversity and dynamics related measures, but also enables a clear understanding of the cognitive influences on board decision making and effectiveness. Originality/value – The conceptual model encompasses most of the relevant constructs and findings of previous studies and offers a parsimonious yet holistic understanding of the boardroom mechanisms that might determine board effectiveness.


2016 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 196-214 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Peschken ◽  
Paurav Shukla ◽  
John Lennon ◽  
Shirley Rate

Purpose – The paper aims to explore the internationalisation decision-making of small- and medium-sized enterprise (SME) owner/managers. Specifically, structural alignment theory (SAT) and regulatory focus theory (RFT) are utilised to examine the concept of opportunity recognition in the context of internationalisation choices. Design/methodology/approach – This paper is conceptual in nature, and an integrative cognitive model of internationalisation choice decisions is developed based on SAT and RFT, underpinned by a critical review of the international entrepreneurship (IE) literature. Findings – Scenarios are identified in which the structure of available information may affect the decision-evaluation process in terms of cognitive resource requirements. Further, the SME owner/manager’s motivational goal orientation is suggested to moderate the role of the information structure in line with IE literature. A conceptual model and propositions are presented. Research limitations/implications – The conceptual model and the propositions arising from the discussion in this paper offer new directions of research to explore SME internationalisation. Originality/value – This paper offers a cognitive perspective of SME internationalisation. This paper offers insights for policymakers, SME owner/managers, practitioners and researchers alike. For internationalisation decisions, this paper highlights the potential impact of the structure of information that is made available to SME owner/managers by industry or policy bodies; further, the moderating influence of motivational goal orientation may inform policy on how information should be presented to SME owner/managers to aid their decision-making.


Subject Reopening the raw wounds of the 1992-95 genocide. Significance The 1995 Dayton agreements created a fragile balance between the Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) state, the Republika Srpska (RS) and Federation entities, and the canton governments in the Federation, with many overlaps and ambiguities. A halt to decision-making at the state and Federation levels threatens IMF, World Bank and EU decisions, without which the whole country will lose almost all international support. Impacts Muslim (Bosniak) leaders’ desire to revisit the 2007 genocide case will pitch both politicians and ordinary Bosnians against each other. The crisis will bring relations between Bosnia and Serbia to their lowest point in many years. Russia will strengthen ties with RS, albeit playing a restraining role; it recently urged against holding an independence referendum.


2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (5) ◽  
pp. 987-1005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piotr Tarka

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to diagnose two types of causal relationships from the perspective of the structural equations model. First, the relationship is analysed between managers’ beliefs regarding the use of marketing information in making decisions and the rational premises of decision validity. Next, the rational premises of decision validity are considered in reference to managers’ abilities to select appropriate information from marketing research reports. Taking into account all of the above premises, the author in the empirical research conducted here introduced the following two research hypotheses which state that: H1: the high level of managers’ beliefs about the usefulness of information from marketing research does not yet positively influence their way of reasoning and making decisions in the light of the bounded-rationality theory. H2: managers who do not use the bounded-rationality criteria of decision assessment, lack of the analytical approach in solving decision problems, also reflect the inability of selecting proper information from a marketing research report. Design/methodology/approach In the conducted empirical research, that is, in the process of gathering the information, the internet questionnaire survey was used, which included the author’s own version of items measuring respective latent variables. Next, to the chosen group of the respondents (invited to the survey through the two social networking sites: LinkedIn and Golden Line), a direct link to the questionnaire was sent via personal e-mails. The method of providing answers to the questions in the online survey included indicating by the respondents the answers on a seven-point Likert scale for the statements which were expressed in agree/disagree format. The whole empirical research was conducted between March 1 and August 31 in 2014, and the process of choosing the appropriate respondents to the sample was conducted with the use of the two techniques: judgemental sampling and snowball sampling. The final size of sample equalled n=213 and its structure included the individuals in companies, who have borne the responsibility mainly for the organisation and planning of strategic and tactic marketing activities. In short, the sample structure consisted of the respondents responsible for decision-making processes and included: marketing directors (45 per cent), product managers (27 per cent), managing directors and chief executive officers (20 per cent), as well as marketing executives (8 per cent). Findings On the basis of findings and the obtained empirical results it is argued that decision makers in companies, despite their strong declarations regarding the use of marketing information, in reality prefer to act in a non-analytical way when making choices. Managers, when faced with difficulties in information processing, adopt simple solutions in solving decision problems which are much closer to the irrational sphere of making choices. Thus the full potential of information that is available to them from marketing research is not even considered. This irrational behaviour in decisions as well as the lack of analytical thinking result in further consequences pertaining to the way that information is selected. Practical implications In spite of all theoretical arguments supporting the bounded-rational theory of making choices, the irrationality or, simply, the non-analytical thinking in decision-making processes in organisations takes place. The inability to use effectively information by managers in companies and failure to scrutinise their own processes of decision making on the basis of logic and reasoning is admittedly the Achille’s heel of many information users. Using information from marketing research in decisions, as well as undertaking the sequence of steps to ensure the valid decision-making process, seems to be a huge problem for managers. Taking into account, the empirical research findings, one can argue now that in spite of the managers’ conviction about the usefulness of the information from marketing research, that is, despite their declarations pertaining to use of information in decision-making processes, such information is in practice often ignored and not taken into account. Originality/value In the paper the author explains why, as is supported by empirical evidence, managers in companies decide to conceal their real beliefs concerning the usefulness of marketing information. Taking this into consideration, the indirect question of the empirical research conducted here is whether managers ever seriously consider marketing research results when making decisions?


2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (7) ◽  
pp. 1459-1467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sherese Y. Duncan ◽  
Raeesah Chohan ◽  
João José Ferreira

Purpose This paper aims to explore, using the employee lens of business-to-business firms, word use through brand engagement and social media interaction to understand the difference between employees who rate their employer brands highly on social media and those who don't. Design/methodology/approach We conducted a textual content analysis of posts published on the social media job evaluation site glassdoor.com. LIWC software package was used to analyze 30 of the top 200 business-to-business brands listed on Brandwatch using four variables, namely, analytical thinking, clout, authenticity and emotional tone. Findings The results show that employees who rate their employer’s brand low use significantly more words, are significantly less analytic and write with significantly more clout because they focus more on others than themselves. Employees who rate their employer’s brand highly, write with significantly more authenticity, exhibit a significantly higher tone and display far more positive emotions in their reviews. Practical implications Brand managers should treat social media data disseminated by individual stakeholders, like the variables used in this study (tone, word count, frequency), as a valuable tool for brand insight on their industry, competition and their own brand equity, now and especially over time. Originality/value This study provides acknowledgement that social media is a significant source of marketing intelligence that may improve brand equity by better understanding and managing brand engagement.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Garrett ◽  
Shaunn Mattingly ◽  
Jeff Hornsby ◽  
Alireza Aghaey

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of opportunity relatedness and uncertainty on the decision of a corporate entrepreneur to pursue a venturing opportunity.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses a conjoint experimental design to reveal the structure of respondents' decision policies. Data were gathered from 47 useable replies from corporate entrepreneurs and were analyzed with hierarchical linear modeling (HLM).FindingsResults show that product relatedness, market relatedness, perceived certainty about expected outcomes and slack resources all have a positive effect on the willingness of a corporate entrepreneur to pursue a new venture idea. Moreover, slack was found to diminish the positive effect of product relatedness on the likelihood to pursue a venturing opportunity.Practical implicationsBy providing a better understanding of decision-making schemas of corporate entrepreneurs, the findings of this study help improve the practice of entrepreneurship at the organizational level. In order to make more accurate opportunity assessments, corporate entrepreneurs need to be aware of their cognitive strategies and need to factor in the salient criteria affecting such assessments.Originality/valueThis paper adds to the limited understanding of corporate-level decision-making with regard to pursuing venturing opportunities. More specifically, the paper adds new insights regarding how relatedness and uncertainty affect new venture opportunity assessments in the presence (or lack thereof) of slack resources.


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