Inexperienced decision-makers' use of positive heuristics for marketing decisions

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Gilbert-Saad ◽  
Rod B. McNaughton ◽  
Frank Siedlok
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Distribution Channel ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Think Aloud ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Domain Specific ◽  
Think Aloud Protocols ◽  
Limited Experience ◽  
Research Designs ◽  
Domain Specific Knowledge

PurposeResearch has reliably demonstrated that decision-makers, especially expert ones, use heuristics to make decisions under uncertainty. However, whether decision-makers with little or no experience also do, and if so, how? is unknown. This research addresses this issue in the marketing context by studying how a group of young and generally inexperienced entrepreneurs decide when asked to set a price and choose a distribution channel in a scenario involving a hypothetical firm.Design/methodology/approachThe authors used think-aloud protocols to elicit data and then used inductive procedures to code the data for analysis.FindingsThe inexperienced entrepreneurs in the sample used three types of heuristics in their decision-making, forming a structured process that narrows in scope. First, metacognitive heuristics, which specify a decision-making approach, were used, followed by heuristics representing the criteria they considered, and finally, heuristics detailing the execution of a selected option. The authors also found that heuristics relating to a market orientation, especially customer-centric criteria, were the most common, but these were balanced with ones representing an internal orientation or growth.Research limitations/implicationsThe generally inexperienced decision-makers the authors’ studied used heuristics in a structured way that helped them to select and balance several potentially conflicting decision-making criteria. As with most research using qualitative research designs, the generalizability of these findings is unclear. Further research on the mechanisms by which relatively inexperienced decision-makers learn the heuristics they use is recommended.Originality/valueThis research's novelty lies in its focus on heuristic use by nonexpert decision-makers under conditions of uncertainty and the findings about their scope and the order they are used. As the authors collected data from think-aloud protocols with relatively young entrepreneurs with limited experience, they also offer a description of the heuristics used by nascent entrepreneurs when making marketing decisions about pricing and channels. The most surprising conclusion is that even without relevant domain-specific knowledge, decision-makers can use heuristics in an ecologically rational way (i.e. structured to match the environment).

The hidden power of language

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 187-206
Author(s):  
Philipp Hummel ◽  
Jacob Hörisch
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Value Creation ◽  
Cost Reduction ◽  
Social Consequences ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Social Aspects ◽  
Social Aspect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Current Accounting ◽  
Cost Reductions

Purpose Stakeholder theory research identifies changes in language as one possible mechanism to overcome the deficiencies of current accounting practices with regard to social aspects. This study aims to examine the effects of the terms used for specific accounts on company internal decision-making, drawing on the example of “value creation accounting”. Design/methodology/approach The study uses a survey based-experiment to analyze the effects of terms used for specific accounts on decision-making, with a focus on social aspects (in particular expenditures for staff) in cost reduction and expenditure decisions. Findings The findings indicate that wordings, which more closely relate to value creation than to costs, decrease cost reductions and increase the priority ascribed to the social aspect of reducing staff costs in times of financial shortage. The effects of terms used on cost reductions are stronger among female decision makers. Practical implications The analysis suggests that conventional accounting language best suits organizations that aim at incentivizing decision makers to primarily cut costs. By contrast, if an organization follows an approach that puts importance on social aspects in times of financial shortage and on not doing too sharp cost reductions, value creation-oriented language is the more effective approach. Social implications The study suggests that the specific terminology used for accounts should be chosen more carefully and with awareness for the possible effects on cost reduction decisions as well as on social consequences. Originality/value This study contributes to a better understanding of the relevance of language in accounting. It suggests that the terms used for accounts should be chosen purposefully because of their far-reaching potential consequences for stakeholders as well as for the organization.

The role of agency in project initiation decisions

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 518-535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Mullaly
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Organizational Dynamics ◽  
Substantive Theory ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Board Level

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of decision rules and agency in supporting project initiation decisions, and the influences of agency on decision-making effectiveness. Design/methodology/approach – The study this paper is based upon used grounded theory methodology, and sought to understand the influences of individual decision makers on project initiation decisions within organizations. Data collection involved 28 participants who were involved in project initiation decisions within their organizations, who discussed the process of project initiation in their organization and their role within that process. Findings – The study demonstrates that the overall effectiveness of project initiation decisions is a product of agency, process effectiveness or rule effectiveness. The employment of agency can have a direct influence on decision-making effectiveness, it can compensate for organizational inadequacies of a process or political nature, and it can be constrained in the evidence of formal and effective organizational practices. Research limitations/implications – While agency was recognized by all participants, there are clearly circumstances where actors perceive the ability to exercise agency to be externally constrained. The study is exploratory, contributing to the development of substantive theory. Theory testing as well as a more in-depth investigation of the underlying drivers of agency would be valuable. Practical implications – The study provides executives and individuals supporting the initiation of projects with insights on how to effectively influence the effectiveness of project initiation decisions, and the degree to which personal characteristics influence organizational dynamics. Originality/value – Most discussions of agency has been framed the subject as an executive- or board-level phenomenon. The current study demonstrates that agency is in fact being perceived and operationalized at all levels. Those demonstrating agency in the majority of instances in this study do so in exercising stewardship behaviours. This has important implications for how agency is perceived by executives, and by how agency is exercised by actors at all levels of the organization.

ERP software selection using intuitionistic fuzzy and interval grey number-based MACBETH method

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Said Yurtyapan ◽  
Erdal Aydemir
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Software Selection ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy ◽  
Expert Opinions ◽  
Erp Software

PurposeEnterprise Resource Planning (ERP) software which is a knowledge-based design on the interconnective communication of business units and information share, ensures that business processes such as finance, production, purchasing, sales, logistics and human resources, are integrated and gathered under one roof. This integrated system allows the company to make fast and accurate decisions and increases its competitiveness. Therefore, for an enterprise, choosing the suitable ERP software is extremely important. The aim of this study is to present new research on the ERP software selection process by clarifying the uncertainties and find suitable software in a computational way.Design/methodology/approachERP selection problem design includes uncertainties on the expert opinions and the criteria values using intuitionistic fuzzy set theory and interval grey-numbers to MACBETH multi criteria decision making method. In this paper, a new interval grey MACBETH method approach is proposed, and the degree of greyness approach is used for clarifying the uncertainties. Using this new approach in which grey numbers are used, it is aimed to observe the changes in the importance of the alternatives. Moreover, the intuitionistic fuzzy set method is applied by considering the importance of expert opinions separately.FindingsThe proposed method is based on quantitative decision making derived from qualitative judgments. The results given under uncertain conditions are compared with the results obtained under crisp conditions of the same methods. With the qualitative levels of experts reflected in the decision process, it is clearly seen that ERP software selection problem area has more effective alternative decision solutions to the uncertain environment, and decision makers should not undervalue the unsteadiness of criteria during ERP software selection process.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the relevant literature by (1) utilizing the MACBETH method in the selection of the ERP software by optimization, and (2) validating the importance of expert opinions with uncertainties on a proper ERP software selection procedure. So, the findings of this study can help the decision-makers to evaluate the ERP selection in uncertain conditions.

Jumping to conclusions – an analysis of the NBA Draft Combine athleticism data and its influence on managerial decision-making

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Berger ◽  
Frank Daumann
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Quality ◽  
Managerial Behavior ◽  
Managerial Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Selection Behavior

PurposeThe NBA Draft policy pursues the goal to provide the weakest teams with the most talented young players to close the gap to the superior competition. But it hinges on appropriate talent evaluation skills of the respective organizations. Research suggests the policy might be valid but to date unable to produce its intended results due to the “human judgement-factor”. This paper investigates specific managerial selection-behavior-influencing information to examine why decision-makers seem to fail to constantly seize the opportunities the draft presents them with.Design/methodology/approachAthleticism data produced within the NBA Draft Combine setting is strongly considered in the player evaluations and consequently informs the draft decisions of NBA managers. Curiously, research has failed to find much predictive power within the players pre-draft combine results for their post-draft performance. This paper investigates this clear disconnect, by examining the pre- and post-draft data from 2000 to 2019 using principal component and regression analysis.FindingsEvidence for an athletic-induced decision-quality-lowering bias within the NBA Draft process was found. The analysis proves that players with better NBA Draft Combine results tend to get drafted earlier. Controlling for position, age and pre-draft performance there seems to be no proper justification based on post-draft performance for this managerial behavior. This produces systematic errors within the structure of the NBA Draft process and leads to problematic outcomes for the entire league-policy.Originality/valueThe paper delivers first evidence for an athleticism-induced decision-making bias regarding the NBA Draft process. Informing future selection-behavior of managers this research could improve NBA Draft decision-making quality.

Who’s making the decisions? How managers can harness artificial intelligence and remain in charge

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pooya Tabesh
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Digital Transformation ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose While it is evident that the introduction of machine learning and the availability of big data have revolutionized various organizational operations and processes, existing academic and practitioner research within decision process literature has mostly ignored the nuances of these influences on human decision-making. Building on existing research in this area, this paper aims to define these concepts from a decision-making perspective and elaborates on the influences of these emerging technologies on human analytical and intuitive decision-making processes. Design/methodology/approach The authors first provide a holistic understanding of important drivers of digital transformation. The authors then conceptualize the impact that analytics tools built on artificial intelligence (AI) and big data have on intuitive and analytical human decision processes in organizations. Findings The authors discuss similarities and differences between machine learning and two human decision processes, namely, analysis and intuition. While it is difficult to jump to any conclusions about the future of machine learning, human decision-makers seem to continue to monopolize the majority of intuitive decision tasks, which will help them keep the upper hand (vis-à-vis machines), at least in the near future. Research limitations/implications The work contributes to research on rational (analytical) and intuitive processes of decision-making at the individual, group and organization levels by theorizing about the way these processes are influenced by advanced AI algorithms such as machine learning. Practical implications Decisions are building blocks of organizational success. Therefore, a better understanding of the way human decision processes can be impacted by advanced technologies will prepare managers to better use these technologies and make better decisions. By clarifying the boundaries/overlaps among concepts such as AI, machine learning and big data, the authors contribute to their successful adoption by business practitioners. Social implications The work suggests that human decision-makers will not be replaced by machines if they continue to invest in what they do best: critical thinking, intuitive analysis and creative problem-solving. Originality/value The work elaborates on important drivers of digital transformation from a decision-making perspective and discusses their practical implications for managers.

Integration between knowledge management and business process management and its impact on the decision making process in the construction sector: a case study of Jordan

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sami Wasef Abuezhayeh ◽  
Les Ruddock ◽  
Issa Shehabat
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Knowledge Management ◽  
Business Process Management ◽  
Process Management ◽  
Business Processes ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate and explain how organizations in the construction sector can enhance their decision-making process (DMP) by practising knowledge management (KM) and business process management (BPM) activities. A conceptual framework is developed that recognises the elements that impact DMP in terms of KM and BPM. The development of this framework goes beyond current empirical work on KM in addition to BPM as it investigates a wider variety of variables that impact DMP. Design/methodology/approach A case study is undertaken in the context of the construction industry in Jordan. A theoretical framework is developed and assessment of the proposed framework was undertaken through a questionnaire survey of decision-makers in the construction sector and expert interviews. Findings The outcomes of this research provide several contributions to aid decision-makers in construction organizations. Growth in the usage of KM and BPM, in addition to the integration between them, can provide employees with task-related knowledge in the organization’s operative business processes, improve process performance, promote core competence and maximise and optimise business performance. Originality/value Through the production of a framework, this study provides a tool to enable improved decision-making. The framework generates a strong operational as well as theoretical approach to the organizational utilization of knowledge and business processes.

Decision making, distributed leadership and the objective knowledge growth framework

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-231
Author(s):  
Stephanie Chitpin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Distributed Leadership ◽  
School Leaders ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Objective Knowledge ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Education Leaders ◽  
Knowledge Growth ◽  
Analytical Approaches

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to know the extent to which a decision-making framework assists in providing holistic, comprehensive descriptions of strategies used by school leaders engaging with distributed leadership practices. The process by which principals and other education leaders interact various school-based actors to arrive at a distributed decision-making process is addressed through this paper. The position taken suggests that leadership does not reside solely with principals or other education leaders, but sustains the view that the actions of various actors within a school setting contribute to fuller and more comprehensive accounts of distributed leadership. Design/methodology/approach While the application of rational/analytical approaches to organizational problems or issues can lead to effective decisions, dilemmas faced by principals are often messy, complex, ill-defined and not easily resolved through algorithmic reason or by the application of rules, as evidenced by the two stories provided by Agnes, a third-year principal in a small countryside elementary school in a small northeastern community, and by John, a novice principal in a suburb of a large Southwestern metropolitan area. Findings The value of the objective knowledge growth framework (OKGF) process is found in its ability to focus Agnes’s attention on things that she may have overlooked, such as options she might have ignored or information that she might have resisted or accepted, as well as innumerable preparations she might have neglected had she not involved all the teachers in her school. Research limitations/implications The implementation of the OKGF may appear, occasionally, to introduce unnecessary points along this route and may not be laboriously applied to all decision-making situations. However, the instinctively pragmatic solutions provided by this framework will often produce effective results. Therefore, in order to reduce potentially irrational outcomes, the systematic approach employed by the OKGF is preferable. The OKGF must be managed, implemented and sustained locally if it is to provide maximum benefits to educational decision makers. Practical implications Given the principals’ changing roles, it is abundantly clear that leadership practice can no longer involve just one person, by necessity, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to imagine how things could have been accomplished otherwise. Expecting the principal to single-handedly lead efforts to improve instruction is impractical, particularly when leadership may be portrayed as what school principals do, especially when other potential sources of leadership have been ignored or treated as secondary or unimportant because that leadership has not emanated from the principal’s office (Spillane, 2006). In this paper, the authors have striven to reveal how a perspective of distributed leadership, when used in conjunction with the objective knowledge growth framework, can be effective in assisting principals in resolving problems of practice. Social implications Different school leaders of varying status within the educative organization benefit from obtaining different answers to similar issues, as evidenced by John’s and Agnes’s leadership tangles. Lumby and English (2009) differentiate between “routinization” and “ritualization.” They argue, “They are not the same. The former erases the need for human agency while the latter requires it” (p. 112). The OKGF process, therefore, cannot provide school leaders with the “right” answers to their educative quandaries, simply because any two school leaders, facing the same issues, may utilize differing theories, solutions, choices or options which may satisfy their issues in response to their own individual contextual factors. Similarly, in a busy day or week, school leaders may be inclined to take the shortest distance between two points in the decision-making process; problem identification to problem resolution. Originality/value Should the OKGF process empower decision makers to obtain sound resolutions to their educative issues by assisting them in distancing themselves from emotions or confirmation biases that may distract them from resolving school problems, its use will have been worthwhile.

Fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making to identify the order of establishing temporary logistics hubs during disaster response

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajali Maharjan ◽  
Shinya Hanaoka
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Disaster Response ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Numerical Illustration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Post Disaster

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to reveal the importance of the order of establishment of temporary logistics hubs (TLHs) when resources (mobile storage units used as TLHs) are limited and to present the development and implementation of a methodology that determines the order of establishment of TLHs to support post-disaster decision making. Design/methodology/approach It employed a decision support system that considers multiple decision makers and subjective attributes, while also addressing the impreciseness inherent in post-disaster decision making for ordering the establishment of TLHs. To do so, an optimization model was combined with a fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making approach. A numerical illustration was performed using data from the April 2015 Nepal Earthquake. Findings The results showed the location and order of establishment of TLHs, and demonstrated the impact of decision makers’ opinions on the overall ordering. Research limitations/implications The study does not discuss the uncertain nature of the location problem and the potential need for relocation of TLHs. Practical implications This methodology offers managerial insights for post-disaster decision making when resources are limited and their effective utilization is vital. The results highlight the importance of considering the opinions of multiple actors/decision makers to enable coordination and avoid complication between the growing numbers of humanitarian responders during disaster response. Originality/value This study introduces the concept of the order of establishment of TLHs and demonstrates its importance when resources are limited. It develops and implements a methodology determining the order of establishment of TLHs to support post-disaster decision making.

Innovation in centralized organizations: examining evidence from Soviet Russia

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dmitriy Chulkov
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Budget Constraint ◽  
Soviet Economy ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Soft Budget Constraint ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Decision Making ◽  
Constraint Model

Purpose – This study aims to examine the economic factors that determine innovation pattern in centralized and decentralized economies and organizations. Design/methodology/approach – Empirical evidence on innovation in the centralized economy of the Soviet Union is reviewed. Existing theoretical literature in this area relies on the incentives of decision-makers in centralized organizations and on the concept of soft budget constraint in centralized command economies and hard budget constraint in market economies. This study advocates applying the hierarchy/polyarchy model of innovation screening to explain the pattern of innovation in centralized economic systems. Findings – Screening and development of innovation projects can be organized in a centralized or decentralized fashion. The differences in innovation between centralized and decentralized economic systems may be explained by elements of the principal-agent theory, the soft budget constraint model, and the theory of decision-making in hierarchies and polyarchies. Empirical evidence shows a sharp slowdown in both innovation and economic growth in the Soviet economy following the economic decision-making reform of 1965. The theoretical explanation most consistent with this evidence is the hierarchy decision-making model. Originality/value – Comparisons of innovation in centralized and decentralized economies traditionally relied on decision-makers' incentives and the concept of soft budget constraint. Upon analysis of empirical evidence from the centralized Soviet economy, this study advocates explaining innovation patterns based on decision-making theory of hierarchy.

Drifting the goals archetype: a systemic study

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Virupaxi Bagodi ◽  
Biswajit Mahanty
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Systems Thinking ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Current Reality

PurposeManagerial decision-making is an area of interest to both academia and practitioners. Researchers found that managers often fail to manage complex decision-making tasks and system thinkers assert that generic structures known as systems archetypes help them to a great deal in handling such situations. In this paper, it is demonstrated that decision makers resort to lowering of goal (quick-fix) in order to resolve the gap between the goal and current reality in the “drifting the goals” systems archetype.Design/methodology/approachA real-life case study is taken up to highlight the pitfalls of “drifting the goals” systems archetype for a decision situation in the Indian two-wheeler industry. System dynamics modeling is made use of to obtain the results.FindingsThe decision makers fail to realize the pitfall of lowering the goal to resolve the gap between the goal and current reality. It is seen that, irrespective of current less-than-desirable performance, managers adopting corrective actions other than lowering of goals perform better in the long run. Further, it is demonstrated that extending the boundary and experimentation results in designing a better service system and setting benchmarks.Practical implicationsThe best possible way to avoid the pitfall is to hold the vision and not lower the long term goal. The managers must be aware of the pitfalls beforehand.Originality/valueSystems thinking is important in complex decision-making tasks. Managers need to embrace long-term perspective in decision-making. This paper demonstrates the value of systems thinking in terms of a case study on the “drifting the goals” systems archetype.

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