Stock price crash risk and unexpected earnings thresholds

2018 ◽  
Vol 44 (8) ◽  
pp. 1012-1030 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wing Him Yeung ◽  
Camillo Lento
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Crash Risk ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Critical Thresholds ◽  
Unexpected Earnings ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Earnings Thresholds ◽  
Earnings Change

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine stock price crash risk (SPCR) as a function of meeting or missing three earnings thresholds – reporting a profit (earnings level), reporting an earnings increase (earnings change) and meeting analysts’ forecasts (earnings expectation). Design/methodology/approach The authors rely upon the research design of Herrmann et al. (2011) to identify the incremental impact of the earnings level and earnings change benchmarks on SPCR, after controlling for the effects of meeting or missing analysts’ expectations. Findings The authors find that meeting analysts’ expectations is negatively associated with SPCR, and this relationship strengthens with the magnitude of the unexpected earnings. However, the authors find little evidence of incremental threshold effects to suggest that earnings level and earnings change benchmarks are critical thresholds with respect to SPCR. Our results are robust after including a number of control variables. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature that investigates determinants of SPCR while simultaneously providing new evidence to conclusions that analysts’ earnings forecast is at the top of the earnings benchmark hierarchy.

The board effectiveness index and stock price crash risk

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Woraphon Wattanatorn ◽  
Chaiyuth Padungsaksawasdi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Crash Risk ◽  
Independent Directors ◽  
Panel Regression ◽  
Board Effectiveness ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Effectiveness Index

PurposeThe main purpose of this study is to use a new broad board effectiveness index, which has been created from several internal attributes of board of directors and to investigate the association of the overall index regarding stock price crash risk.Design/methodology/approachThe authors create a new board effectiveness index from a comprehensive set of board attributes, including the number of board meetings, the number of board attendances, the expertise of the directors, the size of the board and the number of independent directors, in order to test with the stock price crash risk by using panel regression models with fixed effects. The two-stage least squared regression ensures endogeneity issues.FindingsAn increase in board effectiveness index lowers firm-specific crash risk. Moreover, female directors enhance the board effectiveness.Originality/valueWith a new broad board effectiveness index, this paper is unique from other studies as the authors focus on the overall index rather than on a single dimension of board attributes.

scholarly journals Earnings quality and crash risk in China: an integrated analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Udomsak Wongchoti ◽  
Ge Tian ◽  
Wei Hao ◽  
Yi Ding ◽  
Hongfeng Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Insider Trading ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Earnings Quality ◽  
Crash Risk ◽  
Integrated Analysis ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe authors provide a comprehensive empirical examination on the impact of earnings quality on stock price crash risk in China.Design/methodology/approachThe authors acknowledge and distinguish two-dimensional proxies for earnings quality – accounting-based (earnings management degree) and market-based (earnings transparency) known in accounting and finance literature.FindingsThe authors find that both generally indicate that better earnings quality is associated with less crashes. However, extremely high earnings transparency interacted with insider trading profit can also actually exacerbate stock price crashes.Originality/valueThis study is the first to highlight the pertinence of accounting-based measures to proxy for earnings quality in a fast-growing emerging market environment such as China.

scholarly journals Forecasting stock price movement: new evidence from a novel hybrid deep learning model

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Zhao ◽  
Zhonglu Chen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Linear Time ◽  
Price Movement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Deep Learning Model

PurposeThis study explores whether a new machine learning method can more accurately predict the movement of stock prices.Design/methodology/approachThis study presents a novel hybrid deep learning model, Residual-CNN-Seq2Seq (RCSNet), to predict the trend of stock price movement. RCSNet integrates the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, convolutional neural network (CNN) and the sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) long–short-term memory (LSTM) model.FindingsThe hybrid model is able to forecast both linear and non-linear time-series component of stock dataset. CNN and Seq2Seq LSTMs can be effectively combined for dynamic modeling of short- and long-term-dependent patterns in non-linear time series forecast. Experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms baseline models on S&P 500 index stock dataset from January 2000 to August 2016.Originality/valueThis study develops the RCSNet hybrid model to tackle the challenge by combining both linear and non-linear models. New evidence has been obtained in predicting the movement of stock market prices.

Does negative information in MD&A can reduce stock crash risk?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianmai Liu
Keyword(s):  
Information Asymmetry ◽  
Information Disclosure ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Negative Information ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Crash Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose As an important part of the disclosure of listed companies' annual reports, MD&A will disclose some "bad news" about the company. The purpose of this paper is to study whether such "bad news" can reduce information asymmetry and alleviate the risk of stock price crash remains to be seen. Design/methodology/approach Based on the sample of A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2016, the authors examine whether the negative information in MD&A could reduce stock price crash risk. Findings It is found that the negative information in MD&A does not reduce future crash, which indicates that the negative information in MD&A does not alleviate the information asymmetry. Further, it is also found this is due to the low readability of negative information which leads to the negative information not successfully released into the market timely. Only highly readable negative information can alleviate information asymmetry and suppress crash risk. In addition, the authors also find in the companies with more investor surveys negative tone is negatively correlated with crash risk, which means that investor surveys could help investors interpret the negative information in MD&A and alleviate stock price crash risk. Practical implications The practical significance of this article: this paper suggests that investors should carefully identify the quality of negative information in MD&A and pay attention to other quality characteristics besides credibility. This paper suggests that the regulator should pay attention not only to whether to disclose and the amount of disclosure but also to the quality of information disclosure, such as readability, so as to restrict management's strategic behavior in information disclosure. Originality/value First, different from previous studies on the impact of information disclosure on crash risk, this paper directly explores the impact of information in MD&A on stock price crash risk from the perspective of negative information disclosure that management most want to hide. It supplements the literature on the impact of information disclosure on stock price crash risk. Second, this paper studies the interaction between information tone and readability and its impact on the risk of stock price crash. Some studies believe that the credibility of negative news is higher and investors' reaction may be stronger. However, this paper finds that the disclosure of negative information may not be absorbed by the market because of the low readability. Third, this paper finds that investor surveys can help information users to interpret negative information and alleviate the risk of stock price crash, which shows that information disclosure of different channels will complement each other and improve information efficiency. Therefore, it advocates different information disclosure channels which has important practical significance for improving market pricing efficiency and reducing investment decision-making risk.

The effect of the imposition of a public reprimand on the stock price of companies in Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emie Famieza Zainudin ◽  
Hafiza Aishah Hashim ◽  
Shahnaz Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
A Company

Purpose This paper aims to examine the effect of the imposition of public reprimands on the underlying stock prices of companies in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach Data on 148 companies that received public reprimands during the period from 2007 to 2013 were collected from the Bursa Malaysia website to analyse the market reactions to the imposition of public reprimands. Findings Based on a market model of abnormal returns, the empirical result showed that the imposition of a public reprimand had a negative impact on a company’s stock price. Moreover, when a market model of average abnormal returns (AAR) was used, the result indicated that companies that had received a public reprimand had a negative AAR value. Research limitations/implications The findings from this study have implications for shareholders in making their investment decisions because they can switch their investments to other companies and markets after a company in which they are interested or have made an investment has received a public reprimand. Originality/value There is limited research on the imposition of public reprimands and the effect that it has on companies in developing countries. Hence, this study contributes to research in this area by providing evidence on the effect of public reprimand on stock price reactions in the context of a developing country, namely, Malaysia.

Abnormally long audit report lags and future stock price crash risk: evidence from China

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 611-635
Author(s):  
Ahsan Habib ◽  
Hedy Jiaying Huang
Keyword(s):  
Internal Control ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Crash Risk ◽  
Research Database ◽  
Audit Report ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Audit Opinion ◽  
Listed Firms ◽  
International Investors

PurposeAlthough a substantial body of literature investigates the determinants of audit report lag (ARL), scant empirical evidence exists on the consequences of ARL. The purpose of this paper is to examine the association between abnormally long ARL and future stock price crash risk.Design/methodology/approachThis quantitative study employed a large scale (14,445 firm-year observations) of annual financials, audit and ownership information for the Chinese listed companies during 2002–2013 which were retrieved from the China Stock Market and Accounting Research database.FindingsThis study finds evidence that abnormally long ARL increases the risk of a future stock price crash. Furthermore, the study finds that this adverse consequence is more pronounced for firms with a poor internal control environment.Practical implicationsRecently literature started to explore the consequences of abnormal ARL such as going concern audit opinion and restatements in the subsequent periods. This paper reveals that abnormal ARL has consequences for investor wealth losses as well. This is relevant in China, where the ongoing economic growth has attracted, and will continue to attract, a growing body of domestic and international investors. Understanding what factors could expose investors to wealth losses is of paramount importance for allocating their scarce capital.Originality/valueThis study extends the scant literature on the consequences of ARL, and provides useful insights for the Chinese regulatory authorities when considering the appropriateness of the current filing deadline for listed firms.

Currency returns during democratic transition: evidence from Tunisia

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (7) ◽  
pp. 966-979
Author(s):  
Ghadi Saad ◽  
Taoufik Bouraoui
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Democratic Transition ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Effects ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
The International Monetary Fund

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the question whether democratic transition elections influence currency returns. Also, the paper examines the behavior of the currency market around these elections in Tunisia. Design/methodology/approach Empirical data are collected from the International Monetary Fund, the Central Bank of Tunisia and the Tunisian stock market websites. The paper employs event study analysis using a market model and investigates abnormal currency returns around the four election events that occurred during the period of democratic transition in Tunisia (2011–2015). A robustness test is also conducted to control for monetary policy effects. Findings The results indicate that democratic transition does impact currency returns. The authors did not find any significant effect on the events dates (t0). However, event windows around the elections days reacted significantly to the events. The authors notice a significant decrease in cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) at event periods leading up to the elections. Post-event windows perceived negative CARs in the first and second election, and positive CARs in the last two elections. The authors also find that the change in the victors of the elections does not cause major differences to CARs. Further, the authors do not find significant results when controlling for inflation and interest rate. Originality/value There is no evidence yet on how democratic transition elections can affect currency returns. Given that currency is a leading indicator of the performance of the financial sector, this paper should provide policymakers with new evidence on the response of currency returns to democratic transition.

scholarly journals Daily abnormal price changes and trading strategies in the FOREX

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 211-222
Author(s):  
Guglielmo Maria Caporale ◽  
Alex Plastun
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
Market Inefficiency ◽  
Intraday Data ◽  
Abnormal Profits ◽  
New Evidence

PurposeThis paper explores abnormal price changes in the FOREX by using both daily and intraday data on the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD and EURJPY exchange rates over the period 01.01.2008–31.12.2018.Design/methodology/approachIt applies a dynamic trigger approach to detect abnormal price changes and then various statistical methods, including cumulative abnormal returns analysis, to test the following hypotheses: the intraday behaviour of hourly returns on overreaction days is different from that on normal days (H1), there are detectable patterns in intraday price dynamics on days with abnormal price changes (H2) and on the following days (H3).FindingsThe results suggest that there are statistically significant differences between intraday dynamics on days with abnormal price changes and normal days respectively; also, prices tend to change in the direction of the abnormal change during that day, but move in the opposite direction on the following day. Finally, there exist trading strategies that generate abnormal profits by exploiting the detected anomalies, which can be seen as evidence of market inefficiency.Originality/valueNew evidence on abnormal price changes and related trading strategies in the FOREX.

Executive options with inflated equity prices

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 266-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linus Wilson ◽  
Yan Wendy Wu
Keyword(s):  
Boards Of Directors ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Ceo Compensation ◽  
Managerial Compensation ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Closed Form Solutions ◽  
Compensation Package ◽  
Applied Game Theory

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to solve the optimal managerial compensation problem when shareholders are either naïvely optimistic or rational. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses applied game theory to derive the optimal CEO compensation package with over optimistic shareholders. Findings – The results suggest that boards of directors should decrease option grants to CEOs when equity is likely to be irrationally overvalued at the date when the CEO's options vest. Research limitations/implications – The implications of the model are consistent with the available empirical evidence. In addition, the model generates new testable predictions about managerial stock price manipulation, the number of options granted, and the magnitude of the options’ strike prices that have not yet been formally tested. Originality/value – This is the only paper to derive closed-form solutions to optimal CEO compensation when shareholders are naïvely optimistic.

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