Uruguay's uncertain economy imperils political plans

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Buenos Aires ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Public Security ◽  
Regional Context ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Approval Rating ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Will Force

Subject Economic and political challenges in 2015. Significance GDP expanded by 3.5% in 2014, but a less benign regional context and domestic problems will force President Tabare Vazquez to make rapid economic adjustments. Falling competitiveness has affected the current account and deteriorating public finances will require tightening. This will make it harder for Vazquez to fulfill electoral promises to improve education and public security. Impacts Economic and coalition pressures may impede action on campaign promises, cutting into Vazquez's approval rating. Doldrums in Argentina and Brazil and poor bilateral ties with Buenos Aires will weigh on export performance. Competitiveness concerns will worsen if indexation of wages to past high inflation continues.

Drugs and crime gain new priority in Argentina

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Drug Trafficking ◽  
Buenos Aires ◽  
Organised Crime ◽  
Border Security ◽  
Public Security ◽  
Buenos Aires Province ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Concerns ◽  
One Year ◽  
Drugs And Crime

Subject Drug trafficking and security concerns. Significance On January 19, President Mauricio Macri signed a decree declaring a one-year public security emergency for the purpose of fighting organised crime and drug trafficking. Macri's success in tackling drug trafficking and insecurity, particularly in Buenos Aires province, will be crucial to his chances of bidding for a second term in office in 2019. Impacts Elements of the security emergency decree will face congressional opposition. Insecurity and drug trafficking were key election issues in Buenos Aires province last year, and will remain so in future. Returning border and coast guards to their original task of controlling frontiers will be necessary to improve border security.

Optimistic Mexico budget maintains fiscal tightness

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Inflation

Significance It contains the federal budget and revenue legislation, as well as key macroeconomic domestic and international assumptions and projections, several of which look highly optimistic. Impacts Banxico will probably increase interest rates further due to relatively high inflation levels. Tight fiscal and monetary conditions will probably arrest short-term growth. The peso-dollar exchange rate should remain broadly stable as the fiscal accounts present manageable deficits in 2021-22. The current account is expected to show a small surplus during 2021 as a whole, and a marginal deficit next year. Legislators may raise the expected oil price for 2022 to boost spending in some areas without increasing the fiscal deficit target.

scholarly journals Assessing the sustainable nature of housing-related taxation receipts: the case of Ireland

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-214 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diarmaid Addison Smyth ◽  
Kieran McQuinn
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Market Regulation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Financial Market Regulation ◽  
The Public ◽  
Recent Financial Crisis ◽  
Run Up

Purpose The Irish fiscal position was significantly affected by the recent financial crisis. Budgetary surpluses quickly gave way to significant deficits post 2007, culminating into a lengthy excessive deficit procedure and entry into a formal EU/IMF assistance programme in 2010. Much of the deterioration in the public finances was caused by a sharp decline in property-related taxes because the Irish housing market rapidly contracted. In this paper, the authors quantify the extent to which disequilibria in the housing market can affect the tax take, finding significant implications over an extended period. Design/methodology/approach The authors attempt to quantify the extent of housing-related tax windfall gains and losses in Ireland over a 30-year period as a result of disequilibrium in the housing market. This involves a three-step modelling approach where we relate property-dependent taxes to the housing market while estimating equilibrium in the latter before solving for the tax take consistent with that equilibrium. In so doing, the authors find that the fiscal position compatible with equilibrium in the housing market has at times diverged greatly from actual outturns. Findings This paper confirms the significant role played by the housing market in influencing both the tax-take and the overall fiscal position. The authors find that there have been a number of instances where excesses in the housing market have spilled over into fiscal aggregates, notably in the housing bubble period between 2003 and 2008. However, with the on-going adjustments in the housing market, it would appear that prices and volumes have overcorrected in recent years. Overall, much greater emphasis should be given to the role of the housing market in forecasting key taxation aggregates. Originality/value The recent crisis highlighted how domestic policy mistakes (both in terms of budgetary planning and financial market regulation) can greatly amplify economic shocks. Irish budgetary policy in the run up to the financial crisis of 2008/2009 was clearly based on unsustainable levels of housing-related tax receipts. This paper highlights the need for a much more granular approach in framing tax forecasts and in assessing the public finances by more explicitly factoring in housing market developments.

Angola mounting debt burden raises future default risk

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
African Development Bank ◽  
Central Bank Autonomy ◽  
Domestic Banks

Significance The IMF's willingness to turn a blind eye may enable Angola to retain access to concessional finance over the next 18 months; however, Luanda needs a plan to address deferred principal payments and recapitalise a key escrow account in 2023. Impacts The IMF's latest funding review will unlock USD500mn from the World Bank and USD200mn from the African Development Bank. Persistent IMF pressure for greater central bank autonomy will help curb inflation, which recently reached 25%, pending new legislation. Domestic banks remain vulnerable to economic shocks amid a lengthy recession, persistent high inflation and continued currency depreciation.

A bibliometric review of International Marketing Review (IMR): past, present, and future

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Naveen Donthu ◽  
Satish Kumar ◽  
Debidutta Pattnaik ◽  
Neeraj Pandey
Keyword(s):  
Export Performance ◽  
Objective Assessment ◽  
International Marketing ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Global Business ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bibliographic Data ◽  
Bibliometric Review

PurposeThe primary objective of this endeavour is to form a retrospective overview of the International Marketing Review (IMR) and map its way forward.Design/methodology/approachA range of bibliometric techniques has been employed to analyse the performance of IMR and its stakeholders, map the evolution of its thematic and intellectual structures and analyse the factors driving IMR's academic influence and impactFindingsIMR's academic contributions, influence and impact have grown progressively. The thematic structure of the journal has evolved into six clusters. Simultaneously, its research fronts have submerged to six bibliographic clusters, noted as marketing channels, cross-cultural impact on emerging markets, export performance, country of origin (COO), online consumers and global business environment. Among these, the first four are still evolving, suggesting scope for future submissions.Research limitations/implicationsThe limitation of this endeavour largely arises from its selection of bibliographic data being confined to Scopus.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first objective assessment of the journal, useful to its authors, readers, reviewers and editorial board.

Are export earnings from India’s bilateral intra-industry trade with the US and China robust enough?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sagnik Bagchi ◽  
Surajit Bhattacharyya
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Export Price ◽  
World Market ◽  
Export Share ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Persistent Problem ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
The World

Purpose This paper aims to explore whether India’s export basket in the bilateral intra-industry trade (IIT) with two of its top trading partners characterize robust export earnings or not. This is pertinent for two reasons. First, India has a persistent problem of current account deficit for over decades now. Second, whether India’s export diversification strategy by participating in global value chains to improve export share in the world market led to the problem of the fallacy of composition. Design/methodology/approach This study considers bilateral trade data between India-USA and India-China at the HS-6 digit level over the period 1990–2018. The magnitude of total IIT is computed using the Grubel and Lloyd (1971) index. This paper then uses the unit value dispersion criterion to disentangle the magnitude of total IIT into horizontal and vertical IIT. Through a stepwise econometric exercise, this paper explores the attributes of exported goods in the IIT basket in terms of the directions of ToT, export share and export-price elasticity. Findings Across the two country pairs, the major contributors to the upsurge in IIT are five manufacturing industry groups of chemical, plastics and rubber, textiles, base metals and machinery and mechanical appliances. Across the industry groups, the dominant form of IIT has been low vertical IIT. Most of the industry groups do not characterize robust export earnings as the commodity groups have an elastic demand and an increasing trend of Terms of Trade (ToT). The exceptions are the industry groups of chemicals and textiles in India-China and India-USA, respectively. Research limitations/implications The concern of slim export earnings in most industry groups offers scepticism in maintaining the sustainability of the current account. The problem of the fallacy of composition also cannot be ruled out given the dominance of low vertical IIT. This study argues that these industry groups need to engage in labour market reforms and require access to easy credit to achieve competitiveness in the world market. Originality/value The analysis performed in this paper attempts to integrate the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis in the context of IIT. Empirical evidence to such an issue is not profound.

Prospects for the UK economy in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Net Migration ◽  
The Uk

Significance However, the recovery has also led to supply bottlenecks and labour shortages, which have resulted in inflationary pressures. While most of the pandemic-related impacts on the economy are expected to be transitory, longer-term challenges such as export performance, net migration and productivity will weigh on economic growth.

Import obstacles will slow Argentine economic rebound

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Luxury Goods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Product Availability ◽  
Regulatory Changes ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Red Tape ◽  
The Government

Significance In January, the Central Bank of Argentina restricted access to the official exchange market for imports of some luxury goods, while the government asked companies to present their foreign trade estimates for 2021 and suggested that it would not approve any rise in imports unless this was offset with higher exports. Importers are facing mounting delays, which raise costs and hamper domestic production by restricting access to inputs. Impacts Higher import costs due to red-tape delays and shortages of product availability will fuel already high inflation. Frequent regulatory changes will discourage long-term investments and damage importers’ relations with foreign suppliers. Import controls will hit the auto sector hard, with a negative spillover effect in manufacturing more broadly.

The influence of export information use on export knowledge and performance

2005 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 200-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kjell Toften
Keyword(s):  
Export Performance ◽  
Information Use ◽  
Postal Survey ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Market Information ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Seafood Industry ◽  
And Performance

PurposeTo test empirical relationships between export market information use and export knowledge and export performance.Design/methodology/approachConfirmatory factor analysis, using LISREL 8.50, based on a postal survey. The setting selected was the Norwegian seafood industry, mainly consisting of a number of small and medium‐sized firms with a strong export dependency.FindingsThe results indicate that “instrumental/conceptual” use of information positively affects both export knowledge and export performance, while “symbolic” use does not affect either. Export knowledge is found to have no direct influence on export performance in this study.Research limitations/implicationsFor generalisation purposes, longitudinal studies in multiple settings would be preferable to this cross‐sectional survey in a specific setting.Practical implicationsFirms accumulate knowledge and expertise by integrating and incorporating information that has been processed, interpreted and used. This study underscores the importance, for success in export markets, of a commitment to systematically generating, disseminating and responding to export market information. There are clear implications for the management of market intelligence and planning, to enhance the firm's performance.Originality/valueProvides a better understanding of export market information use and its consequences, by integrating it with the concepts of export knowledge and export performance, and testing their structural relations.

Are your customer accounts in order? – SEC announces sweep of broker-dealers and implementation of the customer protection rule initiative

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-74
Author(s):  
Melissa Beck Mitchum ◽  
Bob Xiong
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Securities And Exchange Commission ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policies And Procedures ◽  
Practical Guidance ◽  
Reporting Mechanism

Purpose To explain the Customer Protection Rule Initiative announced by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and offer practical guidance for complying with Rule 15c3-3 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Design/methodology/approach This article discusses Rule 15c3-3 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, related interpretative guidance, and the Customer Protection Rule Initiative announced in June 2016 by the SEC. Findings This article concludes that broker-dealers should take advantage of the Customer Protection Rule Initiative’s self-reporting mechanism and use this time to review their current account arrangements with banks, existing internal policies and procedures, and account documentation. Originality/value This article contains valuable information about the SEC’s Customer Protection Rule Initiative and practical compliance guidance from experienced securities lawyers.

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