Weak economy prompts foreign outreach in Mongolia

Significance GDP growth has slowed from a peak of 17.5% in 2011 to around 7.0% last year. Foreign investment, which has driven growth, has fallen steeply and external conditions have weakened. Legislative moves to revive interest have had little to no effect. The government in Ulan Bator is talking to the IMF about possible assistance, and Mongolians have been polled by text message in a bid to confirm popular support for getting crucial mining projects moving again. Impacts Ulan Bator has to address the recent jailing of foreign nationals and the negative impact on Mongolia's image. The text message referendum suggests refinement is needed to make future initiatives in direct democracy credible. Criticism of the legal process leading to imprisonment of former mining executives could result in changes to the law.

Subject Outlook for the mining sector. Significance The new administration has eliminated export taxes on mining, as part of its efforts to lure foreign investment to revive a stagnant economy. Mining export taxes were set at 5-10% over the past 14 years, and their removal will cost the government some 220 million dollars annually. Impacts Low global metals prices will hinder short-term efforts to boost mining investment. Environmental concerns will continue to drive hostility to mining projects. Lithium will drive mining growth in the near term.


Significance Although President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly committed to increase funding to combat what he calls South Africa’s “second pandemic”, there is a lack of transparency in how the government disburses funds linked to its National Strategic Plan (NSP) on Gender-based Violence and Femicide. Impacts Civil society groups will increase pressure on the government to make expenditure on GBV programmes more transparent. A new private-sector fund to contribute to the NSP has received strong early support, but its management structure is opaque. High levels of GBV will not only have significant humanitarian and social costs but may deter much-needed foreign investment.


Significance The government hopes greater domestic and foreign investment can help turn around the pandemic-hit economy. The governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, last week said GDP should grow by 4.6% in 2021, compared with last year’s 2.1% contraction. Impacts Indonesia will count on private vaccination, whereby companies buy state-procured jabs for their staff, to help speed up its roll-out. The Indonesia Investment Authority, a new sovereign wealth fund, will prioritise attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector. Singapore will continue to be Indonesia’s largest source of FDI in the short term.


Author(s):  
Erwin Kurniawan A. ◽  
Muhammad Awaluddin ◽  
Fitriadi Fitriadi ◽  
Arfiah Busari ◽  
Dio Caisar Darma

Indonesia is a developing country that has always prioritized sustainable development. In achieving these development goals, Indonesia needs to achieve economic growth by improving population welfare and increasing income. With the form of panel data from 34 provinces in Indonesia that have unique characteristics, the author presented them during 2015-2019. Through multiple linear regression, this study seeks to discuss the relationship of unemployment, labor force participation rate, and poor people to Indonesia’s GDP growth. These findings suggest that the three macroeconomic variables have a negative impact on GDP. Regarding GDP growth, only unemployment has an actual effect, while others have no significant effect. The implications of the policies pursued by the government are not only paying attention to economic aspects but social problems that are expected to spur economic development.


2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 469-483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thales Pacific Yapatake Kossele ◽  
Magalie Gabriella Ngaba Mbai-Akem

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of corruption control on capital flight in the least corrupt African countries. Design/methodology/approach Using panel data covering the period of 1996-2010. Findings The results show that the extent of corruption, the total natural resources rent are statistically significant and affect positively the capital across the pooled, random and fixed effects. Inflation and economic growth are also found to have a negative impact on capital flight. Moreover, the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on capital flight. Practical implications The findings of this study suggest that the extent of corruption control by responsible institutions can be considered as one of the most effective weapons in the fight against capital flight in the least corrupt African countries. Social implications The paper recommends to the government of the least corrupt countries in Africa to create an enabling political and economic environment for investor’s attractiveness. This, in turn, will reduce the occurrence of capital flight and lead to the sustainable development. Originality/value The findings of this study suggest that the extent of corruption control by responsible institutions can be considered as one of the most effective weapons in the fight against capital flight in the least corrupt African countries. The paper recommends to the government of the least corrupt countries in Africa to create an enabling political and economic environment for investor’s attractiveness. This, in turn, will reduce the occurrence of capital flight and lead to the sustainable development.


Subject Political outlook in Zimbabwe. Significance On February 17, former Vice President Joice Mujuru formally launched a new party -- Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) -- to contest the 2018 election. Usually, such announcements are met with scepticism, given the failure of past attempts to unseat President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. However, unprecedented divisions within the ruling party mean ZPF may pose a real electoral challenge. Impacts The government's wholesale takeover of the Marange diamond fields could provide fresh opportunities for political patronage. New rules imposing taxes on around 40 imported basic foods means that the government could benefit financially from emergency food aid. Several G40 members could benefit from Zhuwao's stricter indigenisation rules, which bans foreign investment in 'protected' sectors. Such regulation, together with the drought and weak commodity prices, means GDP growth could fail to reach the World Bank's 1.5% forecast. Mugabe's lavish birthday celebrations will fuel public anger -- given the current food crisis -- possibly boosting opposition support.


Subject The fall in foreign investment last year. Significance The government has launched a new Foreign Investment Promotion Agency (APIE) to buck a sharp drop in foreign direct investment (FDI) last year. Breaking with the country's long-standing sector-agnostic approach, the agency will seek to attract investment to specific sectors, including energy, public infrastructure and the food industry. Impacts A more business-friendly administration in Argentina could potentially divert FDI from Chile. Critics of the new FDI regulation maintain that it will dampen inflows. Efforts to attract investment in food and mining services represent a bid to diversify from mineral exports.


Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.


Significance Earlier this month, the government passed a bill allowing for central bank financing of the budget deficit, contravening a core requirement in its agreement with the Fund. Earlier breaches led to the fourth tranche of the bailout (worth 114 million dollars) being withheld. Impacts Other donors will withhold aid disbursements until the impasse between Accra and the IMF is resolved. The electricity crisis will continue to undermine manufacturing activity, contributing to disappointing GDP growth. Ivory Coast's pro-business reforms mean it could attract investors deterred by Ghana's economic woes. Prolonged tensions with the IMF coupled with a deterioration its Ghana's fiscal metrics may drive a credit rating downgrade.


Subject Mexico's external accounts. Significance The plunge in global oil prices represents a significant blow to the Mexican economy, particularly in terms of fiscal revenue. However, a negative impact is also showing in Mexico's external accounts. Moreover, manufacturing exports are contracting, partly due to problems in the automotive sector. Mexico's floating exchange rate is acting as an effective cushion, and its level of international reserves remains comfortable. Nonetheless, the growing external deficits may spark greater uncertainty about the economy's prospects. Impacts If market confidence deteriorates further, the government may activate the 65-billion-dollar Flexible Credit Line that it has with the IMF. The peso should rebound from the all-time nominal lows it has reached, but only after US growth firms up and the oil price stabilises. Despite the increasing external deficits, the government will not introduce protectionist measures and the opposition will not demand them.


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