Latest policies show China has lost reform ambition

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Central Committee ◽  
Security System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Plenary Meeting ◽  
One Child Policy ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The One

Subject Economic policy in China. Significance Details of the 13th Five-Year Plan, which will set China's economic policy to 2020, have emerged following the annual plenary meeting of the Communist Party's Central Committee last month. Impacts Doubling GDP by 2020 will be difficult under a 6.5% growth target, especially with greater focus on 'quality' growth. Reforms of the one-child policy and social security system are uncontroversial and will not have significant near-term impact. The absence of personnel announcements may suggest that Xi no longer needs Central Committee approval to appoint (and remove) key personnel.

China's three-children policy will see limited success

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Family Planning ◽  
Social Control ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Content Type ◽  
One Child Policy ◽  
Limited Success ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
The One

Significance This year it increased the limit to three. The one-child policy has served more to exacerbate than to alleviate demographic problems, leaving China with an ageing population and shrinking workforce much sooner than other countries at this stage of economic development. Impacts Rising infertility will play a part in depressing birth rates. Vested interests and the government's proclivity for social control will prevent the wholesale abolition of family planning. National and local authorities will introduce policies to promote reproduction; not all of them will necessarily be socially liberal.

Measurement of shock effect following change of one-child policy based on grey forecasting approach

Kybernetes ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 559-586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naiming Xie ◽  
Ruizhi Wang ◽  
Nanlei Chen
Keyword(s):  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Development Trend ◽  
General Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
One Child Policy ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
Grey Verhulst Model ◽  
Verhulst Model ◽  
The One

Purpose This paper aims to analyze general development trend of China’s population and to forecast China’s total population under the change of China’s family planning policy so as to measure shock disturbance effects on China’s population development. Design/methodology/approach China has been the most populous country for hundreds of years. And this state will be sustained in the forthcoming decade. Obviously, China is confronted with greater pressure on controlling total scale of population than any other country. Meanwhile, controlling population will be beneficial for not only China but also the whole world. This paper first analyzes general development trend of China’s population total amount, sex ratio and aging ratio. The mechanism for measurement of the impact effect of a policy shock disturbance is proposed. Linear regression model, exponential curve model and grey Verhulst model are adopted to test accuracy of simulation of China’s total population. Then considering the policy shock disturbance on population, discrete grey model, DGM (1, 1), and grey Verhulst model were adopted to measure how China’s one-child policy affected its total population between 1978 and 2015. And similarly, the grey Verhulst model and scenario analysis of economic developing level were further used to forecast the effect of adjustment from China’s one-child policy to two-child policy. Findings Results show that China has made an outstanding contribution toward controlling population; it was estimated that China prevented nearly 470 million births since the late 1970s to 2015. However, according to the forecast, with the adjustment of the one-child policy, the birth rate will be a little higher, China’s total population was estimated to reach 1,485.59 million in 2025. Although the scale of population will keep increasing, but it is tolerable for China and sex ratio and trend of aging will be relieved obviously. Practical implications The approach constructed in the paper can be used to measure the effect of population change under the policy shock disturbance. It can be used for other policy effect measurement problems under shock events’ disturbance. Originality/value The paper succeeded in studying the mechanism for the measurement of the post-impact effect of a policy and the effect of changes in China’s population following the revision of the one-child policy. The mechanism is useful for solving system forecasting problems and can contribute toward improving the grey decision-making models.

The Evolution of the One-child Policy in Shaanxi, 1979–88

1990 ◽  
Vol 122 ◽  
pp. 191-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Greenhalgh
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Central Committee ◽  
Open Letter ◽  
Family Planning Programme ◽  
One Child Policy ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
Party Central Committee ◽  
The One ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
Party Congress

A crucial element in China's modernization effort is the control of population growth. Months before the historic Third Plenum of the 11th Communist Party Congress in December 1978, the leadership decided that only a drastic limitation of fertility would ensure achievement of its economic goals for the year 2000. The policy to encourage all couples to limit themselves to one child was announced in January 1979. In September 1980 the Party Central Committee took the unusual step of publishing an “Open Letter” announcing a drastic programme of 20 to 30 years’ duration to restrict population growth, and calling on all Party and Youth League members to take the lead in having only one child. Thus was launched the world's most ambitious family-planning programme.

China's two-child policy impact will be slow and small

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Married Couples ◽  
Policy Impact ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Ageing Society ◽  
Content Type ◽  
One Child Policy ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One

Subject The abolition of the one-child policy. Significance As of January 1 this year, the law permits all married couples in China to have two children, abolishing the 'one-child policy' in place since 1980 -- a move the government believes will increase the supply of labour and ease the pressures of an ageing society. Impacts Abolishing the one-child policy will not be enough to address labour shortages and the problems of an ageing society. More births will soon boost consumption in areas such as food, clothing and education. In the short term, more births will increase the dependency ratio, which is already rising due to ageing. The net addition to China's population will be limited, and its economic impact will accrue only gradually over many years.

China's gains from one-child policy's end may not last

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Pollution ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Second Child ◽  
Cultural Considerations ◽  
One Child Policy ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

Subject The impact of the end of China's one-child policy. Significance Faced with an ageing population and shrinking workforce, China has abandoned the 'one-child policy' it enforced for nearly four decades. Two years on, however, the impact has been muted. Impacts The increase in the second-child fertility rate will be short-lived. Economic, social and cultural considerations will prevent many couples having a second child, despite the reform. Reducing urban pollution and offering more generous provisions for new parents could increase the fertility rate.

scholarly journals The Effect of China’s Two-Child Policy on the Child Sex Ratio: Evidence From Shanghai, China

2022 ◽  
Vol 59 ◽  
pp. 004695802110679
Author(s):  
Di Tang ◽  
Xiangdong Gao ◽  
Jiaoli Cai ◽  
Peter. C. Coyte
Keyword(s):  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Sex Ratio At Birth ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Female Sex ◽  
One Child Policy ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
Pregnancy Status ◽  
The One ◽  
Male To Female ◽  
Municipal Level

Objective: The bias towards males at birth has resulted in a major imbalance in the Chinese sex ratio that is often attributed to China’s one-child policy. Relaxation of the one-child policy has the potential to reduce the imbalance in the sex ratio away from males. In this study, we assessed whether the bias towards males in the child sex ratio was reduced as a result of the two-child policy in China. Medical records data from one large municipal-level obstetrics hospital in Shanghai, East China. Design: Matching and difference-in-differences (MDID) techniques were used to investigate the effect of the two-child policy on the imbalance in the sex ratio at birth after matching for pregnancy status and socioeconomic factors. Results: Analyzing 133,358 live births suggest that the relaxation of the one-child policy had a small, but statistically significant effect in reducing the imbalance in the male to female sex ratio at birth. Conclusion: The results demonstrate that relaxation of the one-child policy reduced the imbalance in the male to female sex ratio at birth from 1.10 to 1.05 over the study period at one of the major obstetrics and gynecology hospitals in China.

scholarly journals EFEK KEBIJAKAN SATU ANAK TERHADAP KEHIDUPAN PEREMPUAN DI TIONGKOK: SEBUAH IRONI

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 145
Author(s):  
Wabilia Husnah
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Chinese Women ◽  
Chinese Society ◽  
Deng Xiaoping ◽  
Criminal Cases ◽  
School Work ◽  
One Child Policy ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
Women's Lives ◽  
The One

In the Chinese tradition that is influenced by the Confusianism, women are seen to have lower positions than men. In such a social system, the One-Child policy initiated by Deng Xiaoping since 1979 as a program to control the population, underpin the inferiority perception upon Chinese women. This article aims analyze the effects of the China’s One Child Policy towards Chinese women’s lives. It is important to understand how Chinese Women live after their lives have been affected by this Policy, in a good or a bad way. The results show that One Child Policy has negative impacts on Chinese women’s lives. It does not only lead to discrimination views againts women, but also indirectly violate a Chinese woman’s social, cultural and economic rights. Criminal cases overshadow the Chinese women, ranging from torture, neglect of children, abortion, illegal adoption, human trafficking, kidnapping, and even prostitution. On the other hand, all criminal cases makes women become “rare “ and “special” objects in China. Ironically, the scarcity of women in China actually cause the higher bargaining power of women. Now in their lives, Chinese women can go to school, work, choosing a spouse, or even file for divorce. Women’s social status in Chinese society has increased now. It means that women also obtain the positive impact of One-Child Policy.Keywords: women, confucianism, the one child policyAbstrakDalam tradisi Tiongkok yang dipengaruhi oleh Konfusianisme, perempuan selalu memiliki posisi lebih rendah daripada laki-laki. Dalam sistem sosial seperti ini, Kebijakan Satu Anak yang diperkenalkan oleh Deng Xiaoping sejak 1979 sebagai program untuk mengontrol populasi, turut mendukung inferioritas wanita Tiongkok. Artikel ini mencoba menganalisis efek Kebijakan Satu Anak di Tiongkok kepada kehidupan perempuan. Sangat penting untuk memahami bagaimana perempuan Tiongkok menjalani hidupnya pascakehidupannya telah dipengaruhi oleh kebijakan ini, dengan cara yang baik maupun yang buruk. Artikel ini berkesimpulan bahwa Kebijakan Satu Anak memiliki dampak negatif dalam kehidupan perempuan. Kebijakan ini tidak hanya menyebabkan pandangan diskriminatif terhadap perempuan, namun juga secara tidak langsung melanggar hak asasi dalam kehidupan sosial, kultural, dan ekonomi perempuan Tiongkok. Kasus kriminal pun membayangi perempuan Tiongkok, mulai dari penyiksaan, pengabaian anak perempuan, aborsi, adopsi ilegal, penjualan manusia, penculikan, bahkan prostitusi.Di lain pihak, semua kasus kriminal ini telah membuat perempuan menjadi objek yang “langka” dan “spesial” di Tiongkok. Ironisnya, kelangkaan perempuan di Tiongkok menyebabkan nilai tawar perempuan menjadi lebih tinggi. Sekarang, dalam kehidupan mereka, perempuan Cina bisa pergi ke sekolah, bekerja, memilih pasangan hidup, bahkan menuntut cerai. Status sosial perempuan dalam masyarakat Tiongkok pun sudah meningkat sekarang. Ini berarti, perempuan Tiongkok juga telah mendapatkan efek positif dari Kebijakan Satu Anak.Kata kunci: perempuan, konfusianisme, kebijakan satu anak

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