China's two-child policy impact will be slow and small

Subject The abolition of the one-child policy. Significance As of January 1 this year, the law permits all married couples in China to have two children, abolishing the 'one-child policy' in place since 1980 -- a move the government believes will increase the supply of labour and ease the pressures of an ageing society. Impacts Abolishing the one-child policy will not be enough to address labour shortages and the problems of an ageing society. More births will soon boost consumption in areas such as food, clothing and education. In the short term, more births will increase the dependency ratio, which is already rising due to ageing. The net addition to China's population will be limited, and its economic impact will accrue only gradually over many years.

Significance This year it increased the limit to three. The one-child policy has served more to exacerbate than to alleviate demographic problems, leaving China with an ageing population and shrinking workforce much sooner than other countries at this stage of economic development. Impacts Rising infertility will play a part in depressing birth rates. Vested interests and the government's proclivity for social control will prevent the wholesale abolition of family planning. National and local authorities will introduce policies to promote reproduction; not all of them will necessarily be socially liberal.


Kybernetes ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 559-586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naiming Xie ◽  
Ruizhi Wang ◽  
Nanlei Chen

Purpose This paper aims to analyze general development trend of China’s population and to forecast China’s total population under the change of China’s family planning policy so as to measure shock disturbance effects on China’s population development. Design/methodology/approach China has been the most populous country for hundreds of years. And this state will be sustained in the forthcoming decade. Obviously, China is confronted with greater pressure on controlling total scale of population than any other country. Meanwhile, controlling population will be beneficial for not only China but also the whole world. This paper first analyzes general development trend of China’s population total amount, sex ratio and aging ratio. The mechanism for measurement of the impact effect of a policy shock disturbance is proposed. Linear regression model, exponential curve model and grey Verhulst model are adopted to test accuracy of simulation of China’s total population. Then considering the policy shock disturbance on population, discrete grey model, DGM (1, 1), and grey Verhulst model were adopted to measure how China’s one-child policy affected its total population between 1978 and 2015. And similarly, the grey Verhulst model and scenario analysis of economic developing level were further used to forecast the effect of adjustment from China’s one-child policy to two-child policy. Findings Results show that China has made an outstanding contribution toward controlling population; it was estimated that China prevented nearly 470 million births since the late 1970s to 2015. However, according to the forecast, with the adjustment of the one-child policy, the birth rate will be a little higher, China’s total population was estimated to reach 1,485.59 million in 2025. Although the scale of population will keep increasing, but it is tolerable for China and sex ratio and trend of aging will be relieved obviously. Practical implications The approach constructed in the paper can be used to measure the effect of population change under the policy shock disturbance. It can be used for other policy effect measurement problems under shock events’ disturbance. Originality/value The paper succeeded in studying the mechanism for the measurement of the post-impact effect of a policy and the effect of changes in China’s population following the revision of the one-child policy. The mechanism is useful for solving system forecasting problems and can contribute toward improving the grey decision-making models.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-101
Author(s):  
YUSNARIDA EKA NIZMI NIZMI

Abstract One child policy has been implemented  in 1979 and the effects both  negative and positive clearly to women. One child policy is a simple China’s economic growth grand strategy that was design to reduce population growth, infrastructure problems,  labour and resources. This policy obviously effective in controlling almost all family just to have one child. The problem is that one child policy should be noted only just for short term, implemented for giving state to get its economic goals and to socialize the values of small family and not for long term solution.  Various critics defense this policy because of its unrespect and harmful for women and also breaking the human rights. This research analyze one child policy and its implications to decline labour ratio which threat economic stability because of aging population. China government  needs to be focus on the meaning of growth in wholistic and more understand that economic growth is also include better echievements in social politics and economic policy dimension. These dimensions will not be reached if the government keep going its attention only on liberalization and modal accumulation.   Keywords: Population Policy, One Child Policy, Family Planning, Economic Growth.   Sejak One Child Policy diimplementasikan pada tahun 1979, terlihat dengan jelas pengaruh positif dan negatifnya terhadap kaum perempuan. Kebijakan satu anak adalah salah satu bagian sederhana dari grand strategi pertumbuhan ekonomi Cina, yang dirancang untuk membatasi pertumbuhan populasi  dan mengurangi tekanan infrastruktur, ketenagakerjaan dan sumberdaya.  Kebijakan ini efektif dalam membatasi  hampir semua keluarga hanya memiliki satu anak. Masalahnya adalah bahwa kebijakan ini harus dipandang sebagai sebuah program jangka pendek, diimplementasikan untuk memberi negara kesempatan mencapai tujuan-tujuan ekonominya dan membantu mensosialisasikan nilai dari keluarga kecil, dan bukan sebagai solusi jangka panjang untuk tekanan ekonomi. Kritik terhadap kebijakan ini sudah banyak bermunculan, kebijakan ini membahayakan kaum perempuan dan implikasinya melanggar hak asasi manusi. Tulisan ini menganalisa posisi kebijakan satu anak dan implementasinya yang banyak mendapatkan pertentanga dan penurunan rasio tenaga kerja yang pensiun yang dapat mengancam stabilititas ekonomi Cina karena persoalan “aging population”. Pemerintah Cina perlu untuk memfokuskan makna pertumbuhan secara holistik dan lebih memahami bahwa pertumbuhan juga mencakup pencapaian yang lebih baik dalam dimensi sosial, politik, dan kebijakan ekonomi.  Dimensi-dimensi ini tidak akan dapat dicapai jika pemerintah terus melanjutkan perhatiannya hanya pada liberalisasi dan akumulasi modal.   Kata Kunci: Kebijakan Populasi, Kebijakan satu anak, Perencanaan Keluarga, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi  


Subject Economic policy in China. Significance Details of the 13th Five-Year Plan, which will set China's economic policy to 2020, have emerged following the annual plenary meeting of the Communist Party's Central Committee last month. Impacts Doubling GDP by 2020 will be difficult under a 6.5% growth target, especially with greater focus on 'quality' growth. Reforms of the one-child policy and social security system are uncontroversial and will not have significant near-term impact. The absence of personnel announcements may suggest that Xi no longer needs Central Committee approval to appoint (and remove) key personnel.


Intersections ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 22-32
Author(s):  
Toto Hermawan ◽  
Nuria Mahdra Fajarini ◽  
Nurni Utami

This study attempts to explain what distribution of opportunities is in accordance with population growth if a family must have sons and evaluate policies based on the data obtained. The distribution of opportunities according to population growth if a family must have sons is a geometric distribution. For n families, the binomial distribution is used to measure the success rate of the government. If the chances of having a baby boy are high, then the chances of the one-child policy will be successful. In addition, the one-child policy in China was a policy implemented during the Deng Xiaoping administration in 1979 until it was finally abolished at the end of 2015. The decision to abolish this policy is of course a very interesting matter because this policy has been implemented for more than three decades and has succeeded in driving economic growth and improving the standard of living of the Chinese people. After more than three decades of implementation, various social and economic impacts have been felt by China as a result of the one-child policy. The low fertility rate in China, the imbalance of the sex ratio, and the aging population are new problems facing China because of the implementation of this policy. Taking into account these effects, the Chinese government officially abolished the one-child policy and implemented a new policy that allows every couple in China to have two children


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (19) ◽  
pp. 8172
Author(s):  
Pu Liao ◽  
Hui Su ◽  
Dragan Pamučar

The sustainability of China’s Basic Pension System (CBPS) has been challenged by the ageing of the population and the decline in economic growth. This article establishes a Markov model for CBPS to examine whether the reforms, including ending the one-child policy and raising retirement the age, will shrink the negative income–expenditure gap. We find that the negative income–expenditure gap will destroy CBPS in the future in the absence of fiscal transfer or reform. Ending the one-child policy will increase the number of contributors and then reduce the gap in the short term but will worsen the gap in the long term. Raising the retirement age will have several positive effects overall while increasing expenditures in certain periods. The contributions of this article are describing CBPS in detail and establishing a precise model to analyze the effectiveness of reforms.


Subject The impact of the end of China's one-child policy. Significance Faced with an ageing population and shrinking workforce, China has abandoned the 'one-child policy' it enforced for nearly four decades. Two years on, however, the impact has been muted. Impacts The increase in the second-child fertility rate will be short-lived. Economic, social and cultural considerations will prevent many couples having a second child, despite the reform. Reducing urban pollution and offering more generous provisions for new parents could increase the fertility rate.


Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.


Significance The government hopes greater domestic and foreign investment can help turn around the pandemic-hit economy. The governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, last week said GDP should grow by 4.6% in 2021, compared with last year’s 2.1% contraction. Impacts Indonesia will count on private vaccination, whereby companies buy state-procured jabs for their staff, to help speed up its roll-out. The Indonesia Investment Authority, a new sovereign wealth fund, will prioritise attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector. Singapore will continue to be Indonesia’s largest source of FDI in the short term.


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