Azerbaijan must adjust to less oil at lower prices

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Stress ◽  
External Current ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Subject Negative trends in Azerbaijan's economy. Significance Azerbaijan's economy is contracting under the impact of low oil prices, weaker purchasing power and reduced public spending. The external current account and fiscal balances are deteriorating. Two devaluations last year could help stabilise the manat, but have created more economic stress in the interim and exposed the fragility of the banking sector. Financial reserves, including the state oil fund, are large in relation to the size of the economy but are shrinking rapidly. Impacts Months of recession will generate anger and potentially anti-government protests. The government may be tempted to use military action against Karabakh to distract attention from domestic problems. However, sustained low oil prices will reduce previously lavish spending on defence. Moves towards economic diversification and privatisation will be resisted by elite groups with vested interests.

Azerbaijan needs diversification despite gas growth

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Intermediation ◽  
Financial Stress ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Credit Expansion ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Exploratory Drilling ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Borrowing ◽  
The Impact

Significance The slump was caused by low oil prices and left a legacy of higher debt and banking fragility. The slowdown pushed the government into reviewing the fiscal framework and placing renewed emphasis on economic diversification. Impacts The objective of increasing domestic financing as an alternative to external borrowing may prompt reforms to financial intermediation. The legacy of financial stress will constrain future credit expansion and hence the impact of diversification efforts. If BP's exploratory drilling in 2019-20 reveals new reserves, hydrocarbons' continuing dominance will be assured.

Epidemic may shake Chad's government

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mission Operation

Subject COVID-19 impact on Chad. Significance Chad has a relatively low number of confirmed COVID-19 cases but appears quite vulnerable to the impact of the pandemic, especially the economic impact. The country’s highly rural and youthful demography may help to slow the spread and keep the death rate low. Yet low oil prices, a return to recession and a new wave of sector-specific protests could pose major challenges for the government. Impacts Chad's epidemic appears unlikely to affect France’s Sahel counterterrorism mission Operation Barkhane, headquartered in Chad. A bottom-up revolution appears unlikely, and no major rebel challengers appear poised to take advantage of COVID-19 and associated crises. President Idriss Deby's government appears unlikely to fall in the short term -- French backing will continue to ensure his survival.

Oil prices will increase Ecuador's fiscal pressures

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Full Control ◽  
Public Resources ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impact Of Falling

Significance The collapse of world oil prices has brought fiscal policy sharply into focus in Ecuador. At a time when the budget deficit is widening and the opposition is strengthening, the government faces the prospect of receiving significantly less income from the oil sector than anticipated. The fallout from the plunge of oil prices coincides with the beginning of the constitutional debate that could allow the re-election of President Rafael Correa in 2017. Impacts The government will intensify efforts to raise oil output in a bid to ease the impact of falling oil prices. Conflicts between central and local government will probably increase as public resources become scarcer. If oil prices remain low, the appeal of exiting dollarisation and establishing full control over monetary policy will rise.

Thailand’s democratic deficit will dampen GDP growth

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Spending ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Democratic Deficit ◽  
National Strategy ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Domestic Activity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Subject Outlook for the Thai economy. Significance Thailand's GDP grew by 3.9% last year, the most since 2012, and is expected to remain at around 4.0% this year, with stronger public spending supporting surging tourism and solid consumer spending. Thailand’s National Strategy aims to raise GDP growth to 5-6%, but this ambition faces rising short-term risks and longer-term structural impediments. Impacts Despite rising pressure on the government to hold elections, protests will not grow, limiting the impact on spending and tourism. Automobiles, semiconductors and other electronics -- key Thai exports -- will be hit by deteriorating US-China relations. The Bank of Thailand is one South-east Asian central bank keen to ‘normalise’ rates, but higher rates could dampen domestic activity.

Would diversified corporate boards add value? The case of banking institutions in Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2/3) ◽  
pp. 218-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ribed Vianneca W. Jubilee ◽  
Roy W.L. Khong ◽  
Woan Ting Hung
Keyword(s):  
Firm Value ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Gender Diversity ◽  
Governance Structure ◽  
Corporate Boards ◽  
Board Diversity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Banking Institutions ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Board diversity has gained increasing attention and has been widely posited as a driver for firm value. The purpose of this paper is to provide empirical evidence on the relation of gender diversity of corporate boards with the value of banking institutions in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach The sample comprised of ten banking institutions listed on Bursa Malaysia with data observations from 2007 to 2016. Panel data techniques were employed to investigate the relationship between having female directors and firm performance in terms of values generated as indicated by Tobin’s Q. Findings The results revealed a positive relationship between the proportion of female director and the value of the bank. Interestingly, this study found that appointment of female independent directors tends to be negatively related to the value of such institutions. Practical implications There remains a shortage of research studying the impact of gender equality on corporate boards in Malaysia generally and in the banking sector specifically. Thus, this study contributes a significant knowledge on the value implication of board diversity. The findings also provide useful insights on the developmental policy initiated by the government to increase female participation in the top management. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature by bridging the knowledge gap on board diversity in the governance structure of banking institutions. It also provides theoretical contributions to the development of regulatory policy in relation to gender diversification in corporate leadership.

Impact of financial inclusion on economic development of marginalized communities through the mediation of social and economic empowerment

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarsem Lal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Economic Empowerment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Marginalized Communities ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to check the impact of financial inclusion on economic development of marginalized communities through the mediation of socio-economic empowerment.Design/methodology/approachIn order to fulfil the objectives of the study, primary data were collected from 382 bank customers belonging to marginalized communities breathing in Jammu district of J and K by using purposive sampling technique. The data were collected during the month of April–August 2020. Multivariate statistical techniques such as EFA, CFA and SEM were used for data analysis and scale purification.FindingsThe study’s results reveal that financial inclusion has a direct and significant impact on economic development of marginalized communities through the mediation of social and economic empowerment. The study highlights that despite various initiatives taken by the government towards financial inclusion, there is a denial from the financial institutions to extend the credit to the marginalized communities due to lack of education, illiteracy, lack of awareness, attitude of bankers and policy directions to the banking sector, which confine these communities to feel proud, dignified, confident and self-reliant to face any financial crisis.Research limitations/implicationsFirst the in-depth analysis of the study is restricted to Jammu district only that restricts the generalization of the results to the whole population of J and K. Second, the data were collected from respondents belonging to marginalized communities only. Third, comparative study of marginalized households who are covered under the financial inclusion drive and those who are still financially excluded has not been done yet. Fourth, the questionnaire approach was the only way to gather primary data and thus, the results might have a common-method bias.Originality/valueThe study makes contribution in the direction of financial inclusion narrative relating to socio-economic empowerment and economic development of marginalized communities. It looks into how for the socio-economic aspects of marginalized communities influence their exclusion from the financial system of the country. The study also provides valuable insights for the policymakers, researchers and academicians both at the countrywide and intercontinental level to devise and put into practice programmes that will widen right to use financial products and services leading to cutback of poverty incidence, income parity, social and economic empowerment, economic development and reduction in caste and gender based discrimination.

Price protests may not bring down Azerbaijani regime

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dense Networks ◽  
Energy Flows ◽  
Currency Mismatches ◽  
The Impact

Significance Authorities took too long to adjust the exchange-rate regime under pressure from falling oil prices, wasting resources that could have been used to shore up the banking sector, which has problems ranging from currency mismatches to related-party lending and will now come under IMF scrutiny. But reform is not only about economics -- there are dense networks of patronage and outright corruption that would be disturbed by any attempts at reform. Impacts Price rises officially forecast at 10-12% in 2016 will threaten all consumers' quality of life. The currency's plummeting in value will hit hardest middle-class consumers buying imported goods. Inflation and country-wide demonstrations will threaten the regime's image and potentially its stability if the situation worsens. A flare-up being engineered in Karabakh has only about 20% likelihood because of the impact on vital energy flows and foreign investment.

Russia faces twin hits from COVID-19 and cheap oil

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regulatory Changes ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Additional Funding ◽  
Capital Outflows ◽  
The Rich ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Receive

Significance The steep fall in global oil prices and rapid spread of COVID-19 have ended hopes of economic revival in 2020. The government has allocated 300 billion rubles (4 billion dollars) for immediate use, and Putin has announced hefty taxes on the rich to boost revenues. The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has no plans for monetary expansion but will provide additional liquidity to the banking sector and relax regulations to encourage credit for badly hit industries. Impacts A temporary hike in inflation is expected due to ruble devaluation and possible price hikes on some products. The government will make regulatory changes to ensure food supplies. The deteriorating economic situation is likely to spur higher capital outflows. Poorer regions are likely to receive additional funding from Moscow.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic impacts of fiscal shocks on the Moroccan economy: a disaggregated SVAR analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Youssef Alami ◽  
Issam El Idrissi ◽  
Ahmed Bousselhami ◽  
Radouane Raouf ◽  
Hassane Boujettou
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Fiscal Shocks

PurposeThe present paper aims to evaluate the structural impact of exogenously induced fiscal shocks on the Moroccan economy. This entails an analysis of the effect on the GDP of COVID-19-induced fiscal shocks manifesting in terms of budgetary revenues and expenditures. A key aspect of this analysis addresses the size of the tax and fiscal multipliers.Design/methodology/approachThe study examines the structural relationship between five variables during the period between Q1 2009 and Q2 2020 using an SVAR approach that allows for a dynamic interaction between ordinary expenditures and revenues on a quarterly basis.FindingsPositive structural shocks on public spending are likely to negatively impact economic growth. Negative economic growth, in turn, will damage price levels and interest rates, mainly over the long term. However, public-revenue-multiplier-associated shocks exceed these price- and interest-rate multiplier-associated shocks. Indeed, a structural shock to ordinary revenues can have a positive but insignificant impact on the GDP stemming from the ensuing decrease in the government budget deficit that proceeds from the increase in government revenues.Originality/valueThis is one of the first studies in the Moroccan context to assess the impact of the current worldwide pandemic on public finances. In addition, this study highlights the importance of boosting economic recovery through public spending.

Politics trump business in Venezuela oil outlook

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Influence ◽  
Default Risks ◽  
The Government ◽  
Military Support ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

Significance The impact of low oil prices, which have prompted a fall of more than 60% in the government's income, has been exacerbated by falling production. This raises questions about the government's ability to maintain its regional influence via organisations such as PetroCaribe and manage the risk of a default by PDVSA. Impacts Camimpeg may bolster military support for the government, but not oil output. Although falling oil prices have lowered the cost of PetroCaribe, it could yet prove unsustainable in current conditions. Chinese lending appears set to shrink amid concerns over oil output and default risks.

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