Governance concerns may affect Poland's credit rating

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Credit Rating ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Mortgage Loans ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Working Practices ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Eu

Significance Moody's may cut Poland's credit rating because of the government's controversial changes to the constitutional court, the agency has warned. The European Commission continues to put pressure on the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party to repeal legislation that changes the court's composition and working practices, triggering protests and prompting accusations of anti-democratic behaviour. However, Poland's financial markets have been rallying, even as the stand-off has intensified. Signs that the government favours a less aggressive restructuring of Swiss franc mortgage loans are also buoying sentiment. Impacts Sentiment towards EMs will still be fragile, thanks to significant uncertainties. Uncertainties centre on the oil price outlook, US monetary policy and, crucially, central banks' ability to stabilise markets. Concerns about a UK exit from the EU could begin to weigh on CE currencies if markets anticipate higher risk of an 'out' vote on June 23.

Tusk may fail to appeal to a wider Polish electorate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Council ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Cultural Issues ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Significance Given his background and high media profile, the former premier and European Council president could emerge as the leading figure in Poland’s divided opposition. Opponents of the government hope he will help Civic Platform (PO) regain power from the ruling right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party. Impacts Tusk’s return is likely to exacerbate further already-strained tensions between Warsaw and the EU political establishment. PiS will intensify its claims that Tusk is too accommodating towards Berlin, which could also further complicate Polish-German relations. Tusk could find himself in conflict with attempts to shift PO’s stance further to the left on moral-cultural issues such as abortion.

Risky Polish spending plans will boost PiS support

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
Low Income Families ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right

Subject The PiS government's first four months. Significance Politics is deeply polarised; the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) government's opponents accuse it of undermining democracy and the rule of law, concerns echoed by the European Commission. Its costly social spending pledges appeal to Poles frustrated that they have not shared in economic growth. Impacts PiS welfare policy will support low-income families, particularly those outside the large urban centres. With no elections due until 2018, the government's position is stable, and it should have no problems passing its legislative programme. The rule-of-law dispute with the Commission will cost the government time and political capital responding to international criticisms.

Romania heads for clash with EU over legal sovereignty

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Judicial Independence ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Court Of Justice ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Significance After accentuated rule-of-law erosion during 2017-19, the new government encouraged hopes that such violations would become a thing of the past. However, last month, the government sacked the ombudsman, while the Constitutional Court declared void a judgement of the EU Court of Justice (CJEU) defending judicial independence. Impacts Recent developments erode hopes that last month’s positive CVM report will lead to Romania’s Schengen zone accession later this year. Failure to replace the ombudsman will not affect the coalition parties electorally, given the politicisation of rule-of-law issues. Subnational courts will be left confused whether to apply the Constitutional Court or the CJEU ruling to legal disciplinary cases.

Denmark's weak new government faces complex alliances

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Political Strategy ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
The Right

Significance The new government will have only 34 of the 179 seats, because policy differences among the right-wing parties, and the political strategy of the electorally strengthened anti-immigration, Euro-sceptic Danish People's Party (DF), mean DF will remain outside. Policy-making will be difficult. The government will be more economically liberal and pro-EU than it would have been with DF, but to make policy it will rely on partners across the political spectrum, especially the ousted Social Democrats -- who remain the largest party -- and DF. Impacts If DF is seen as a welfarist protector of ordinary citizens, it is more likely to repeat, at least, its 22% vote in the next election. The much-tighter immigration regime which is in prospect could taint Denmark's image and make it less attractive to foreign investment. The new government is likely to be an ally for much of UK Prime Minister David Cameron's EU reform agenda.

French labour reform may be watered down further

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Current State ◽  
Significant Step ◽  
Promotional Campaign ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right

Significance The draft law was presented by Labour Minister Myriam El Khomry in late February and aims at introducing more flexibility in France's rigid labour market. The government has led a promotional campaign in favour of the reform, against a backdrop of opposition from trade unions, students and public opinion. Valls has watered down the most controversial proposals but even in its current state the proposed reform would be a significant step forward. Impacts The government will need to assemble a diverse majority spanning the centre-left to the centre-right in order to pass the draft law by July. Reformist trade unions support the revised version of the law but more militant unions maintain their opposition. The right wing and the main employer association oppose the revised draft which they consider not favourable enough to companies.

Dutch election could be two-party race

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Issues ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Significance Months of negotiations between the government, parliament and EU member states on the Netherlands’ approval of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement -- which Dutch voters rejected in a referendum last April -- damaged the electoral prospects of Rutte's Liberal Party (VVD). However, he reached a provisional deal in December. His success in temporarily parking this contentious issue comes amid the unfolding of a two-party race between the VVD and the PVV in the final weeks before the elections on March 15. Impacts If the VVD stays in power for another term, a referendum on EU membership is highly unlikely. The VVD’s tougher stance on immigration and integration could attract right-wing voters and make it a more tempered alternative to the PVV. The Labour Party may shift its focus from economic to social issues to differentiate itself from the VVD and attract left-wing voters.

Growth failure leaves governing French left vulnerable

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Growth Failure ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government's reforms have failed to deliver growth and lower employment as it had hoped. This leaves it poorly placed before December's regional elections and the 2017 presidential poll. Against a background of economic weakness, Europe's migrant crisis is boosting the National Front (FN) and its leader Marine Le Pen. Impacts Sarkozy may beat former Prime Minister Alain Juppe in the main centre-right party primary. Sarkozy may then beat President Francois Hollande in the first presidential round, and Marine Le Pen in the second. Under pressure from the right, the government is unlikely to accept further refugees beyond the proposed EU quota. France's continued economic debility will weaken its voice in the EU, and exacerbate strains with Germany.

Polish VAT surge may subside from mid-2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Credit Rating ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Significance Budget data for the first ten months show revenue from value-added tax (VAT) exceeding the forecast by 22%. That could help narrow Poland’s 'VAT gap' -- the difference between collected and potential taxes. Impacts Poland is likely to bring its VAT gap closer to the EU average in the short term. However, this positive trend may offer only a temporary reprieve for ruling PiS. Rising tax revenue will boost not only the government budget but also Poland’s credit rating.

Italy's presidential vote carries significant risks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Strong Indication ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Eu

Significance One of the front-runners to replace Mattarella is Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who recently gave a strong indication that he intends to run. However, if Draghi is elected president, there does not appear to be an alternative government which could guarantee political stability and make progress on Italy’s crucial reform agenda. Impacts A situation where there is no strong alternative to Draghi’s leadership may boost the electoral appeal of the far-right Brothers of Italy. The return of political instability would diminish Italy’s leverage in the EU regarding important issues such as foreign and fiscal policy. Unless the right-wing parties perform poorly, it is unlikely that Draghi would be elected as prime minister after the next election.

Popular votes and Brexit will shape EU-Swiss relations

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Market Access ◽  
Mutual Recognition ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Mutual Recognition Agreement ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Eu

Subject EU-Swiss bilateral relations. Significance The relationship between Switzerland and the EU is functional but difficult. Despite some progress on the Mutual Recognition Agreement (MRA) that secures market access for a range of products, a breakthrough is still needed on the most important issue, the institutional framework for sectoral agreements. Negotiations have slowed and the Swiss government faces difficult decisions on the right timing and strategy. Impacts The Swiss government’s decision to resume discussions on new 'cohesion payments' to the EU is likely to create goodwill in Brussels. In the short term, Switzerland's economy and trade are unlikely to suffer from the stalemate in the Swiss-EU political relationship. With Ignazio Cassis as foreign minister, the government is likely to become more sceptical of the EU.

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