Gulf militaries face long battle in Yemen

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Domestic Terrorism ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Significant Progress ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Projection ◽  
Military Alliance ◽  
Southern Border ◽  
Sea Ports

Significance The ten-nation alliance led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has made significant progress since its intervention began in March 2015. A UAE-led ground force re-established President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi's government to Aden in September 2015; Saudi-led forces have advanced north, fighting to control the Red Sea ports, Ta'izz city, and the eastern road to Sana'a from Ma'rib province. Saudi Arabia has also fought an ongoing struggle to prevent Huthi commando raids and rocket attacks along its southern border in Jizan province. Impacts Saudi Arabia and the UAE face the prospect of costly ongoing military and aid commitments in Yemen. The UAE may face an intensified domestic terrorism threat from AQAP. The UAE is building a permanent power projection base in Eritrea, and may become a more muscular actor in the Horn of Africa. The campaign will cement the Saudi-UAE military alliance against Iran.

Sudan enters dangerous regional waters

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
External Support ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Strategic Game ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Powers ◽  
Gulf Crisis

Subject Sudan's foreign relations. Significance As aftershocks from the Gulf crisis ripple across the Horn of Africa, Sudan appears to be playing a dangerous strategic game. Recent months have seen Sudan seek deals with Turkey and Qatar, as well as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), even as these extra-regional powers are locked in a fractious rivalry that is playing out in Africa as a contest for influence. Impacts Even with external support, Sudan’s economic crisis is unlikely to ease quickly. Economic tensions may explode into a new wave of popular anti-government protests. Mismanagement and corruption will remain serious obstacles to wider investment and business in Sudan.

Gulf to look beyond Pakistan as insecurity rises

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Nuclear Technology ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

Subject Outlook for Pakistan-Gulf relations. Significance Pakistan's parliament last month voted against joining the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen. Since then Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff Raheel Sharif have visited Riyadh to clarify the decision, reassuring Saudi Arabia of Pakistan's support in case of any external aggression against the kingdom. The Yemen intervention has exposed some faultlines in the relationship between the two allies, as well as in Pakistan's ties with other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), some of whom -- most notably the United Arab Emirates (UAE) -- described Pakistan's decision as "dangerous and unexpected". Impacts Pakistan will lose leverage in GCC states as the latter opt to provide aid via multilateral, international mechanisms. Islamabad will be reluctant to share nuclear technology with GCC states -- primarily for fear of provoking Washington. China will increasingly become Pakistan's preferred diplomatic and economic partner, despite a degree of mutual suspicion.

Raheel boosts Riyadh’s anti-terrorism alliance

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Arms Sales ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Alliance ◽  
Political Relations ◽  
Military Campaign ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

Subject The impact of Raheel Sharif taking over as the head of the Saudi-led counterterrorism alliance Significance Pakistan’s retired chief of army staff General Raheel Sharif was last month appointed commander of the Saudi Arabia-led Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism, which now has 41 members. The appointment boosts the image of the Islamic Alliance at a time of limited progress on Saudi-Pakistan political relations and little clarity on the goals and strategy of the Alliance itself. Impacts Saudi-Pakistan military-to-military ties will develop, partly due to their longstanding defence pact and arms sales. Islamabad will continue to improve ties with Iran, even if that means somewhat alienating Riyadh. Pakistan’s army will avoid any Middle Eastern military campaign that could worsen Shia-Sunni divisions at home.

Tehran and Muscat could deepen economic ties

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Military Alliance ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Financial Benefits ◽  
Economic Ties

Significance Oman has historically maintained strong business and diplomatic links with Iran, cutting across the anti-Iranian political agenda pressed by Saudi Arabia on the other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Economic relations are now more important for Muscat than Tehran, while the political ties are most useful for Iranian foreign policy. However, Oman in January 2017 joined the Saudi-led Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism, comprising 40 countries excluding Iran and Iraq. Impacts Oman’s urgent need for economic diversification will broaden its search for economic partners. If the Iran-Saudi Arabia regional confrontation worsens, Oman’s midway stance could be tilted by financial benefits from either side. In case of a serious Washington-Tehran showdown, Muscat would maintain quiet links with Iran, but ultimately prioritise US relations.

Jihadists will slow stabilisation of Yemen's south

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Central Government ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Actors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
Government Authority

Significance The bombing represents the latest setback to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)'s efforts to stabilise southern Yemen and reinstall the government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. ISG is just one of a number of sub-state actors that have been empowered by the conflict and that will seek to challenge central government authority. Impacts Insecurity in Aden will deal a blow to the legitimacy of the Saudi-backed Hadi government. A major setback in the south will reflect badly on the reputation of Saudi Defence Minister Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Reconstruction efforts in southern Yemen will place increased long-term strain on the Saudi budget in particular. Southern Yemen could emerge as a key battleground in the rivalry between al-Qaida and ISG for leadership of the global jihad.

Iran is set to become a formidable cyber actor

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cyber Warfare ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Primary Target ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Technology Sector

Subject Iran's cyber capabilities. Significance Tehran has invested in its technology sector in recent years to become one of the world’s most cyber-capable nations. Though perhaps not on the same level as China and Russia, it is not far behind. Iranian hackers have carried out successful attacks in a number of countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United States. Impacts Saudi Arabia is Iran’s primary target for cyber operations, followed by Saudi supporters such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Iran will augment its own cyber warfare capabilities through proxies such as the 'Syrian Electronic Army'. US reversals over the nuclear deal may lead Iran to unleash a new wave of cyberattacks against US interests.

A Qatar solution is unlikely at the Gulf summit

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Self Sufficiency

Significance As the primary mediator in the dispute between Qatar and three of its GCC neighbours, Kuwait is seeking the first face-to-face meeting of the countries’ leaders since Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain launched their boycott of Qatar in June. Since then, both sides’ positions have become more entrenched. Impacts Whatever happens with the boycott, Qatar will focus on developing greater self-sufficiency and security through direct imports. A breakthrough deal would likely boost Gulf financial markets, particularly Qatar’s stock exchange, which is at a six-year low. The outcome of the summit will influence wider regional geopolitics, including Gulf rivalry with Iran in Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon.

Chances of renewed conflict in western Yemen are high

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
The City

Significance That is one of the terms of the Stockholm Agreement, signed in December 2018, which was the first -- and thus far only -- successful step toward de-escalation taken by the warring parties. Despite ongoing violations by all sides and their continued failure to pull back, a local ceasefire has largely been maintained, reducing the intensity of fighting in Hodeida. Forces backed by the Saudi-United Arab Emirates (UAE) coalition are positioning themselves to launch another offensive to capture the city and its port. Impacts Any renewed offensive will exacerbate the humanitarian crisis by further restricting the delivery of essential aid. The Huthis may increase cross-border raids into Saudi Arabia and drone and missile attacks on coalition targets in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Coalition air forces would intensify their bombing of targets in Huthi-held territory.

Nuclear cooperation will bolster South Korea-Gulf ties

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
South Korea ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Gulf Countries ◽  
Knowledge Based Economy

Subject South Korea-Gulf ties. Significance As Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates seek to reduce their economic dependence on oil, they have been deepening their ties with South Korea. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) view South Korea as a development model because of its swift and successful transition to a knowledge-based economy. For its part, Seoul believes that developing ties with Gulf countries will enhance its energy security and boost trade flows. Impacts Increased renewables capacity will help meet the Gulf's rising domestic energy demand that threatens to erode its capacity to export oil. South Korean technology transfer and expertise should stimulate job creation in downstream industries, and help reduce youth unemployment. Construction of nuclear plants in the Gulf will establish South Korea as a credible exporter of nuclear power technology.

Saudi's Yemen campaign may disrupt Horn relations

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Red Sea ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Decisive Victory ◽  
Arab States ◽  
Strategic Relationships ◽  
The Impact

Subject Implications of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen for relation in the Horn of Africa. Significance The intervention of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen threatens to re-order strategic relationships between concerned Arab states and the Horn of Africa. The largest indication of this shift is the Red Sea security agreement between Eritrea and Saudi Arabia on April 30. The agreement has rankled Ethiopia and its regional allies, who are keen to 'contain' Eritrea and prevent its bid to emerge from international isolation. Given the range of other interests that Ethiopia shares with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Yemen, it is unlikely that a significant rupture will occur. However, the impact of these tensions could be significant, as Ethiopia will remain committed to thwarting closer relations between Asmara and Arab states. Impacts Riyadh's outreach to allies is a tactic for success in its Yemen campaign and may not necessarily indicate long-term strategic shifts. Such new relationships will be highly contingent on developments in Yemen. However, Saudi Arabia will not halt the campaign until a decisive victory against the Huthi rebels and forces loyal to the former president.

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