Sudan enters dangerous regional waters

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
External Support ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Strategic Game ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Powers ◽  
Gulf Crisis

Subject Sudan's foreign relations. Significance As aftershocks from the Gulf crisis ripple across the Horn of Africa, Sudan appears to be playing a dangerous strategic game. Recent months have seen Sudan seek deals with Turkey and Qatar, as well as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), even as these extra-regional powers are locked in a fractious rivalry that is playing out in Africa as a contest for influence. Impacts Even with external support, Sudan’s economic crisis is unlikely to ease quickly. Economic tensions may explode into a new wave of popular anti-government protests. Mismanagement and corruption will remain serious obstacles to wider investment and business in Sudan.

Gulf alliances leave Eritrea in hostile neighbourhood

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
External Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arms Embargo ◽  
Gulf Crisis ◽  
Eastern Sudan

Subject Eritrea and regional geopolitics Significance Hoping to mitigate its international isolation, Eritrea has over recent years aggressively pursued new alliances with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), adding to its older but no less vital links with Egypt. However, shifting regional alignments in the wake of the 2017 Gulf crisis have placed Asmara squarely in the middle of some of the Arab world’s most serious political rifts, and greatly exacerbated tensions with its neighbours, with serious repercussions that the ruling People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) will find it difficult to navigate. Impacts Access to eastern Sudan will be curtailed for some time, creating economic challenges for the PFDJ. Eritrean opposition forces may secure increased external support, although, except for Ethiopia, most channels will remain covert. Qatar’s withdrawal from the disputed border with Djibouti will complicate Eritrea’s lobbying for an end to the UN arms embargo.

Iran is set to become a formidable cyber actor

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cyber Warfare ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Primary Target ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Technology Sector

Subject Iran's cyber capabilities. Significance Tehran has invested in its technology sector in recent years to become one of the world’s most cyber-capable nations. Though perhaps not on the same level as China and Russia, it is not far behind. Iranian hackers have carried out successful attacks in a number of countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United States. Impacts Saudi Arabia is Iran’s primary target for cyber operations, followed by Saudi supporters such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Iran will augment its own cyber warfare capabilities through proxies such as the 'Syrian Electronic Army'. US reversals over the nuclear deal may lead Iran to unleash a new wave of cyberattacks against US interests.

Oman-Iran relations will survive pressures

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Gulf Crisis ◽  
Formal Relations ◽  
The One

Subject Oman-Iran relations Significance Oman is the only Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member that maintains formal relations with all states in the region, including Iran, which has fallen out with the two most powerful GCC states, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Oman’s diplomatic channel to Tehran enables it to play the role of mediator between the United States and its Arab allies on the one side and Iran on the other. Indeed, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called Sultan Qaboos on May 16 to discuss alleged Iranian threats. Impacts An outbreak of hostilities between the United States and Iran would leave Oman isolated from other GCC states. Oman would reap economic benefits as a transshipment centre for Gulf states if Saudi Arabia and the UAE fight with Iran. A worsening Gulf crisis would increase smuggling between Iran and Oman, with Tehran eager to keep supplying Huthi rebels in Yemen.

Gulf militaries face long battle in Yemen

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Domestic Terrorism ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Significant Progress ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Projection ◽  
Military Alliance ◽  
Southern Border ◽  
Sea Ports

Significance The ten-nation alliance led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has made significant progress since its intervention began in March 2015. A UAE-led ground force re-established President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi's government to Aden in September 2015; Saudi-led forces have advanced north, fighting to control the Red Sea ports, Ta'izz city, and the eastern road to Sana'a from Ma'rib province. Saudi Arabia has also fought an ongoing struggle to prevent Huthi commando raids and rocket attacks along its southern border in Jizan province. Impacts Saudi Arabia and the UAE face the prospect of costly ongoing military and aid commitments in Yemen. The UAE may face an intensified domestic terrorism threat from AQAP. The UAE is building a permanent power projection base in Eritrea, and may become a more muscular actor in the Horn of Africa. The campaign will cement the Saudi-UAE military alliance against Iran.

Arab enemies may impose new sanctions on Qatar

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Common Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Borrowing Costs ◽  
Gulf Crisis

Significance Hopes for a swift resolution of the Gulf crisis were dashed on June 23 when details emerged of a list of 13 demands sent by the four countries that launched a boycott of Qatar on June 5: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and Bahrain. Impacts The concept of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as a common market has been permanently damaged. An increased political risk premium will raise borrowing costs across the GCC. Firms in Qatar will find it harder to retain and recruit professional expatriate staff.

Saudi Arabia and UAE in the Horn of Africa

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 99-118
Author(s):  
Shady Ahmed Mansour ◽  
Yara Yehia Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Regional Powers ◽  
Alliance Politics ◽  
Trade Relations

This article explains the active policies adopted by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) towards the Horn of Africa, which could be attributed to the existence of rival regional powers, especially Iran and Turkey, and their adoption of policies deemed threatening to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. It uses “alliance politics” to explain how both countries are containing regional threats by building alliances with countries in the Horn of Africa by promoting military and trade relations and boosting development.

Gulf to look beyond Pakistan as insecurity rises

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Nuclear Technology ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

Subject Outlook for Pakistan-Gulf relations. Significance Pakistan's parliament last month voted against joining the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen. Since then Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff Raheel Sharif have visited Riyadh to clarify the decision, reassuring Saudi Arabia of Pakistan's support in case of any external aggression against the kingdom. The Yemen intervention has exposed some faultlines in the relationship between the two allies, as well as in Pakistan's ties with other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), some of whom -- most notably the United Arab Emirates (UAE) -- described Pakistan's decision as "dangerous and unexpected". Impacts Pakistan will lose leverage in GCC states as the latter opt to provide aid via multilateral, international mechanisms. Islamabad will be reluctant to share nuclear technology with GCC states -- primarily for fear of provoking Washington. China will increasingly become Pakistan's preferred diplomatic and economic partner, despite a degree of mutual suspicion.

Jihadists will slow stabilisation of Yemen's south

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Central Government ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Actors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
Government Authority

Significance The bombing represents the latest setback to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)'s efforts to stabilise southern Yemen and reinstall the government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. ISG is just one of a number of sub-state actors that have been empowered by the conflict and that will seek to challenge central government authority. Impacts Insecurity in Aden will deal a blow to the legitimacy of the Saudi-backed Hadi government. A major setback in the south will reflect badly on the reputation of Saudi Defence Minister Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Reconstruction efforts in southern Yemen will place increased long-term strain on the Saudi budget in particular. Southern Yemen could emerge as a key battleground in the rivalry between al-Qaida and ISG for leadership of the global jihad.

Qatar will grow more assertive, but not hubristic

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Core ◽  
Gulf Crisis ◽  
Political Weapon ◽  
Ultimate Settlement ◽  
Do So

Significance The withdrawal came with neither notice nor any obvious precipitating event, and is ultimately more a piece of political showmanship than a decision rooted in fiscal calculation. This underscores the frenetic, changeable nature of Gulf politics. It also speaks to possible fragility at the core of OPEC. Impacts Doha will aggressively court inward investment and will do so increasingly on its own terms. Ratings agencies and investors may interpret this move as a sign of a bullish and reinvigorated government. The decision will not affect the ultimate settlement of the Gulf crisis, which will be resolved when Saudi Arabia and its allies choose. Doha will remain a predictable energy supplier, prizing its reputation as a reliable exporter that does not use trade as a political weapon.

A Qatar solution is unlikely at the Gulf summit

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Self Sufficiency

Significance As the primary mediator in the dispute between Qatar and three of its GCC neighbours, Kuwait is seeking the first face-to-face meeting of the countries’ leaders since Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain launched their boycott of Qatar in June. Since then, both sides’ positions have become more entrenched. Impacts Whatever happens with the boycott, Qatar will focus on developing greater self-sufficiency and security through direct imports. A breakthrough deal would likely boost Gulf financial markets, particularly Qatar’s stock exchange, which is at a six-year low. The outcome of the summit will influence wider regional geopolitics, including Gulf rivalry with Iran in Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon.

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