Germany's SPD will struggle to emerge from low point

Subject Germany's Social Democrats. Significance Following two humbling defeats in the latest round of state elections in March 2016, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), junior partner in Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition government, hit an all-time low in the national polls at 20% in May. Impacts The pressure on the party leadership may make the SPD a less predictable coalition partner for Merkel. Over the coming year the CDU may explore the option of forming a government with the Greens after the 2017 election, replacing the SPD. The SPD may benefit from CDU attempts to win back some right-wing voters ahead of the election.

Significance The new government will have only 34 of the 179 seats, because policy differences among the right-wing parties, and the political strategy of the electorally strengthened anti-immigration, Euro-sceptic Danish People's Party (DF), mean DF will remain outside. Policy-making will be difficult. The government will be more economically liberal and pro-EU than it would have been with DF, but to make policy it will rely on partners across the political spectrum, especially the ousted Social Democrats -- who remain the largest party -- and DF. Impacts If DF is seen as a welfarist protector of ordinary citizens, it is more likely to repeat, at least, its 22% vote in the next election. The much-tighter immigration regime which is in prospect could taint Denmark's image and make it less attractive to foreign investment. The new government is likely to be an ally for much of UK Prime Minister David Cameron's EU reform agenda.


Significance The governing Christian Social Union (CSU), sister party of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU), suffered a serious blow in Bavaria's October 14 federal state elections, underscoring the wider decline of the CDU/CSU in Germany. Its setback, as well as the poor result for the Social Democrats (SPD), Merkel’s junior coalition partner, will have implications at the national level. Impacts If Merkel were to fall, Bundestag President Wolfgang Schaeuble could serve as stop-gap chancellor. In 2019’s state elections, the AfD could emerge as the largest party in several eastern states. Merkel could withdraw support for the CSU’s Manfred Weber, who wants to run for the European Commission presidency.


Significance The coalition government of left-wing Syriza and right-wing nationalist Independent Greeks (Anel) significantly lags behind the conservative opposition New Democracy (ND) party in opinion polls. The partners will seek to complete the bailout, then present themselves as seeing the programme through while limiting the pain of reforms imposed by foreign creditors. Elections need not be held before October 2019. Impacts Tsipras is understood to be making quiet overtures to the Panhellenic Socialist Movement, but it is still in disarray. Greece’s escape from austerity depends on growth, which is expected to inch up from zero last year to around 2% this year. Another crucial indicator, unemployment, is projected to fall only gradually, from 21.7% now to below 20.0% next year.


Significance Negotiations between coalition government parties and other major political players to agree on a new document outlining the government’s path forward (the ‘Carthage II Agreement’) stalled in late May over whether to replace Prime Minister Youssef Chahed and reshuffle the cabinet. A faction of the ruling Nidaa Tounes party led by its executive chairman, Hafedh Essebsi (son of Tunisia’s President Beji Caid Essebsi), called for the dismissal of the prime minister, who is also from Nidaa Tounes. Nidaa’s government coalition partner, the Islamist Ennahda, opposed the move. Impacts Insecurity over the government’s future will complicate key economic and security reforms. The political crisis will deter foreign investment. Friction between rival Nidaa Tounes factions will weaken popular confidence in politics.


Significance The Coalition of the Radical Left (Syriza) won the early general election on January 25 and formed a coalition government with a nationalist right-wing party, Independent Greeks (ANEL). The coalition will have the support of 162 members in the 300-seat parliament. The principal policies shared by the parties are to roll back the country's massive debt, which is equivalent to 175% of GDP, and to escape the foreign tutelage implied by the two Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) with Greece's creditors, which stipulate rigorous fiscal and structural reforms in exchange for 240 billion euros (272 billion dollars) in soft bailout loans. Impacts In the public sector, leftist supporters will clamour for jobs in the face of a Syriza platform commitment to introduce hirings on merit. Syriza says it will welcome foreign investment to help restore growth so that Greece can pay its own way and not have to borrow in future. If the takeover of office goes smoothly, Syriza's victory could boost left-of-centre parties in the forthcoming UK and Spanish elections.


Significance Netanyahu is beginning negotiations with the aim of forming a new coalition government after the April 9 general election, which saw right-wing and religious parties that are traditional partners for Netanyahu’s Likud win a parliamentary majority. The talks will determine who is appointed to key portfolios -- in this case, defence, finance and justice -- establishing the balance of power in the next government. They also will set out the policy goals of the new administration through a formal coalition agreement. Impacts Netanyahu’s desire for immunity while in office will give parties considerable leverage over Likud. The next justice minister will continue efforts to weaken the power of the Supreme Court. Kahlon is likely to keep his post as finance minister, where he faces the challenge of a growing fiscal deficit. If talks with right-wing parties collapse, Netanyahu may prefer to try a ‘grand coalition’ with Blue and White rather than fresh elections.


Significance The procession is intended to show unity against terrorism following the shooting on March 18, as Nidaa Tounes, the leading party of the governing coalition, faces rising internal divisions. Nidaa Tounes has seen off the first major rebellion within its ranks, as a group of outspoken figures mounted a failed challenge against the party leadership in recent months. This was driven partly by frustration at sharing power with Islamists in the coalition government -- it was forced to include Ennahda after its bid for a mainly Nidaa Tounes government failed. Impacts Security reform is now the priority policy. Yet divisions may affect government efforts to tackle the worsening jihadist threat. Pressure for a tougher counterterrorism policy from within the government and in the media will mount. This could lead to curtailments of civil liberties.


Significance Merkel’s decision represents the culmination of discontent from within her party and outside regarding her socially liberal policies and grand coalition government with the Social Democrats (SPD). Her party successor will determine how long Merkel remains chancellor, the future direction of the CDU and German politics, as well as Germany’s future relationship with Europe. Impacts Merkel’s departure could open the door for a rapprochement in German-US relations. A more unilateralist Germany could undermine euro-area stability. The ‘Normandy’ format -- aimed at managing conflict in Ukraine -- could face extinction.


Subject The coalition government sworn in on December 13. Significance The Peasant and Greens Union (LVZS) won a landslide victory in the October Seimas (parliament) elections. The party is inexperienced, diverse and eclectic, the government programme is vague and policy positions are not fixed. Their Social Democrat (LSDP) junior coalition partners led the previous government but are in shock after electoral failure. Impacts If the LVZS disappoints Lithuanians weary of poverty, injustice and inequality, their distrust in authority and democracy will increase. Lithuania will remain pro-EU and anti-Brexit, anxious to protect Lithuanian migrants’ rights in the United Kingdom. Fear of Russia will make Lithuania less prone to radical right-wing, nationalistic or undemocratic views.


2006 ◽  
pp. 54-75
Author(s):  
Klaus Peter Friedrich

Facing the decisive struggle between Nazism and Soviet communism for dominance in Europe, in 1942/43 Polish communists sojourning in the USSR espoused anti-German concepts of the political right. Their aim was an ethnic Polish ‘national communism’. Meanwhile, the Polish Workers’ Party in the occupied country advocated a maximum intensification of civilian resistance and partisan struggle. In this context, commentaries on the Nazi judeocide were an important element in their endeavors to influence the prevailing mood in the country: The underground communist press often pointed to the fate of the murdered Jews as a warning in order to make it clear to the Polish population where a deficient lack of resistance could lead. However, an agreed, unconditional Polish and Jewish armed resistance did not come about. At the same time, the communist press constantly expanded its demagogic confrontation with Polish “reactionaries” and accused them of shared responsibility for the Nazi murder of the Jews, while the Polish government (in London) was attacked for its failure. This antagonism was intensified in the fierce dispute between the Polish and Soviet governments after the rift which followed revelations about the Katyn massacre. Now the communist propaganda image of the enemy came to the fore in respect to the government and its representatives in occupied Poland. It viewed the government-in-exile as being allied with the “reactionaries,” indifferent to the murder of the Jews, and thus acting ultimately on behalf of Nazi German policy. The communists denounced the real and supposed antisemitism of their adversaries more and more bluntly. In view of their political isolation, they coupled them together, in an undifferentiated manner, extending from the right-wing radical ONR to the social democrats and the other parties represented in the underground parliament loyal to the London based Polish government. Thereby communist propaganda tried to discredit their opponents and to justify the need for a new start in a post-war Poland whose fate should be shaped by the revolutionary left. They were thus paving the way for the ultimate communist takeover


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