Greek coalition will start to fray in late 2018

Significance The coalition government of left-wing Syriza and right-wing nationalist Independent Greeks (Anel) significantly lags behind the conservative opposition New Democracy (ND) party in opinion polls. The partners will seek to complete the bailout, then present themselves as seeing the programme through while limiting the pain of reforms imposed by foreign creditors. Elections need not be held before October 2019. Impacts Tsipras is understood to be making quiet overtures to the Panhellenic Socialist Movement, but it is still in disarray. Greece’s escape from austerity depends on growth, which is expected to inch up from zero last year to around 2% this year. Another crucial indicator, unemployment, is projected to fall only gradually, from 21.7% now to below 20.0% next year.

Significance Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has reshuffled his cabinet to include ministers more accommodating to creditor demands. He is intent on concluding the second review rapidly in hopes of concomitant debt relief and boosting his Syriza party's flagging fortunes. Syriza trails conservative opposition New Democracy (ND) by up to 15 percentage points in opinion polls. Impacts The likelihood of completing the second programme review and securing debt relief before year-end is remote. Syriza's left-wing believes it has moved too far from its anti-austerity stance and will resist full acquiescence to creditor demands. Failure to comply will delay approval of the next tranche of bailout funding and postpone debt relief.


Subject Bolivia election update. Significance With less than two months until the re-run of the presidential elections on May 3, opinion polls put the left-wing Movimiento al Socialismo (Movement towards Socialism, MAS) well ahead of its rivals. This complicates the efforts of Bolivia’s right-wing interim administration to prevent the party’s return to government. Meanwhile a paper by researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has questioned the veracity of the Organization of American States (OAS) report that led to the aborting of October’s elections and the ouster of former President Evo Morales. MIT has distanced itself from the paper, saying the researchers involved were not working on its behalf but rather as contractors for the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR). Impacts The report questioning the fraud findings could undermine faith in the OAS as a neutral observer, whether it is substantiated or not. The MAS is unlikely to retain its majority in the Legislative Assembly. Difficult economic choices will test the eventual election victor.


Subject Foreign policy and Prosur. Significance Government-opposition differences on foreign policy are unusual in Chile, but have been triggered by President Sebastian Pinera’s championship of Prosur, a new regional grouping launched in Santiago on March 22. It has been criticised by the left-wing opposition as bringing together only centre-right and right-wing governments. Impacts Trade issues, although remaining important, may become less of a driver of Chile’s foreign policy. There is no clear reason to expect that Prosur will be more successful than previous initiatives like UNASUR. Discrepancies in Chile over foreign policy and, particularly, relations with the Bolsonaro government will persist.


1960 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 293-304
Author(s):  
George O. Totten

At the First Asian Socialist Conference, held in Rangoon in January 1953, members of the two wings of the then split Japanese Socialist Party viewed the Burmese Socialists and their successful movement in Burma with interest and amazement1 The Japanese right-wing Socialists were pleased with the Burmese emphasis on “democratic socialism” and denunciation of “Soviet imperialism,” though a somewhat patronizing air could be detected in their attitudes toward the younger Burmese who were relative new-comers to the ranks of the international socialist movement. The Japanese left-wing Socialist delegation wanted very much to identify themselves with the rising socialist elements in Asia but were surprised to find out how watered-down Burmese socialism was, from their point of view.2 Class analysis had not been given much attention and the stipulated goal of Pyidawtha (the “Happy Land”) appeared to be little more than the kind of mixed economy usually associated with Scandinavian welfare states.


2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (10) ◽  
pp. 1096-1111
Author(s):  
Andreea Stoian ◽  
Delia Tatu-Cornea

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the influence of the political partisanship of government in charges of returns on the European stock markets. The authors found a large body of research investigating this issue for the case of US stock market but less evidence for the European stock markets. Design/methodology/approach – The authors employ a panel data model with fixed-effects and an additional dynamic panel model using the bias-corrected LSDV estimator on a data set consisting of monthly and quarterly data. The data range from 2000 to 2010 and cover 20 European Union (EU) countries. The authors test several hypotheses, and run distinct regressions using political, financial, and economic variables. The authors also divide the data set into two sub-samples in order to reveal the distinctions between advanced and emerging economies in the EU. Findings – The authors find that stock markets perform better under right-wing administrations. The result is consistent for the advanced EU economies, but the authors found no robust evidence in that sense for emerging countries. Additionally, the authors show that European stock market preferences for right/left-wing administrations is not necessarily related to the beliefs about the size of unemployment, inflation, deficit, and/or debt, which opens the field for further research in this area. Originality/value – The study contributes to existing knowledge. It examines if Wall Street folklore, asserting for many decades that stock markets perform better under right-wing governments, also holds for European stock markets given the distinctions in the political and financial systems between USA and Europe. Moreover, the authors underline the introduction in the analysis of the Central and Eastern European countries.


Significance Months of negotiations between the government, parliament and EU member states on the Netherlands’ approval of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement -- which Dutch voters rejected in a referendum last April -- damaged the electoral prospects of Rutte's Liberal Party (VVD). However, he reached a provisional deal in December. His success in temporarily parking this contentious issue comes amid the unfolding of a two-party race between the VVD and the PVV in the final weeks before the elections on March 15. Impacts If the VVD stays in power for another term, a referendum on EU membership is highly unlikely. The VVD’s tougher stance on immigration and integration could attract right-wing voters and make it a more tempered alternative to the PVV. The Labour Party may shift its focus from economic to social issues to differentiate itself from the VVD and attract left-wing voters.


Subject Profile of Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Significance The new leader of New Democracy (ND), 48-year-old Kyriakos Mitsotakis, has already given his party's shadow government another reshuffle, setting up a tougher stance than his predecessor towards the Syriza-Independent Greeks (Anel) coalition government. Mitsotakis sees delays in implementing the third bailout package as destructive for the private sector and criticises Syriza's propensity to hobble any administrative or regulatory authority it does not control and to fill public institutions with political appointees and relatives of cabinet ministers. Impacts ND's political profile, tainted by years of unpopular austerity measures and openings to the far-right, will become more centrist. Mitsotakis's rise to head ND will strengthen the hand of Greece's creditors as he offers a reliable alternative to Syriza-Anel. Other opposition parties may feel pressure to distance themselves from the government lest supporters defect to ND.


1983 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 11-11
Author(s):  
Robert McDonald

The problems of newspapers, radio and TV in Greece today The murder on 19 March 1983 of George Athanassiades, publisher of the conservative newspaper Vradyni, profoundly disturbed Greek political life. It is one of a sequence of incidents which appear to have been engineered to destabilise democracy in a manner which is reminiscent of events preceding the Colonels' coup in April 1967. On the last weekend in February there was a security scare which caused the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) government to put the police and army on the alert. It is not clear whether some terrorist action or a coup plot had been uncovered but, as well as the security forces, the civilian political defence mechanisms of the communist and socialist parties were mobilised. This involved party activists gathering at vital centres such as telephone exchanges with a view to taking control if necessary. The manoeuvre infuriated New Democracy opposition leader Evangelos Averoff, who believes that PASOK is a socialist dog wagged by its Marxist tail and that if this faction were ever to gain control of the party it would seek to establish a one-party state. When Mr Athanassiades was shot by a lone assailant, Mr Averoff instantly dubbed the killing an assassination and accused the government of having cultivated a climate of hatred and terrorism which provoked such actions. He called on Prime Minister Andreas Papandreou to resign. The government and some members of Mr Averoff's own party believe the tenor of his denunciation was excessive and further contributed to the tension. Tens of thousands of right-wing protestors turned Mr Athanassiades' funeral into a rowdy anti-government demonstration. The situation was exacerbated two weeks later when three bombs ripped through a hotel at Didymotikhon near the Turkish border where 80 members of New Democracy were attending a banquet. A chance extension of the proceedings kept party members away from the site of the blasts, otherwise dozens of people could have been killed. A note purporting to come from a group called the Organisation of Anti-Military Struggle claimed Mr Athanassiades was killed because Vradyni had made light of a number of unexplained suicides among military conscripts. The organisation threatened action against other publishers and journalists if they continued to ignore the ‘appalling’ conditions in the army. The note implied left-wing inspiration for the killing. Pro-government newspapers have suggested that the killing may have been the work of remnants of the Military Police (ESA), the dictatorship's political enforcers with whom Mr Anthanassiades had a running feud. ESA twice closed the paper and, after the restoration of political government, Vradyni published exposés of the unit's torture tactics. The Athens police have intimated that the killing may have been carried out by the same people who murdered CIA station chief Richard Welch outside his home in 1975, an unsolved crime which appears to have been carried out by professionals. This note on the state of the Greek press in the wake of the election of the socialist PASOK government in October 1981 is a postscript to Pillar & Tinderbox, my book for Writers & Scholars Educational Trust/Index on Censorship, which examines the media under the dictatorship (1967-74) and during the seven years of conservative government which followed. In it I suggested among other things that the press is a microcosm of the state of public life. The thesis of the article which follows is that, following the orderly transition of power from conservatives to socialists, much of the passion of the press has dissipated. There is an increasingly industrial outlook, profits are taking priority over politics. Newspapers are slowly becoming infused with the grey, statistical mentality — a by-product of membership of the European Community — an attitude which, however dull, encourages stability. One can only hope the recent flare-up is a temporary aberration.


Significance However, as opinion polls show that contending left- and right-wing party blocs are closer in terms of voting intentions, the government's performance and ability to collaborate with smaller parties remain key to the left’s ability to return for another term in office. Impacts Tight electoral competition between left and right points to a couple of years of political uncertainty for international investors. In the event of an early election, the most plausible scenario is a coalition of the centre-right People's Party and far-right Vox. The People's Party’s move further to the right could open space for the liberal Ciudadanos party to reclaim centrist support.


2021 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-47
Author(s):  
Vasiliki Georgiadou ◽  
Jenny Mavropoulou

Abstract Anti-establishment parties with either a left-wing or a right-wing ideological slant have been entering contemporary European Democracies with sizeable vote shares. During the Great Recession, the Greek party system could be perceived as a relevant case-study for the formation and breakthrough of anti-establishment parties. Given the fact that two deeply ideologically diverging anti-establishment parties, the Coalition of the Radical Left – Social Unionist Front (syriza) and the populist radical right-wing Independent Greeks (anel), came to power, forming a coalition government from early 2015 to January 2019, the primary goal of this article is to enquire into ‘supply-side’ parameters, exploring potential associations along a range of programmatic stances and policy dimensions that effectuated the syriza-anel alliance. Using the Comparative Manifesto Project and the Chapel Hill Expert Survey datasets from 2012 to 2017, our findings confirm beyond the expected programmatic differences the existence of a converging policymaking basis between syriza and anel which goes beyond the ‘pro-Memorandum vs. anti-Memorandum’ divide.


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